Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer
Saturday, March 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Alexa Grasso
16-5-1
Alexa Grasso
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Maycee Barber
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alexa Grasso
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2025 | Natalia Silva | L | Unanimous Decision (3, 5:00) |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Valentina Shevchenko | L | Unanimous Decision (5, 5:00) |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Valentina Shevchenko | D | Split Draw (5, 5:00) |
| Mar 4, 2023 | Valentina Shevchenko | W | Submission (RNC) (4, 4:34) |
| Oct 15, 2022 | Viviane Araujo | W | Unanimous Decision (5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Maycee Barber
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | Karine Silva | W | Unanimous Decision (3, 5:00) |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Katlyn Cerminara | W | Unanimous Decision (3, 5:00) |
| Jun 24, 2023 | Amanda Ribas | W | KO/TKO (Elbows) (2, 3:42) |
| Mar 25, 2023 | Andrea Lee | W | Split Decision (3, 5:00) |
| Jul 2, 2022 | Jessica Eye | W | Unanimous Decision (3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Alexa Grasso Key Advantages
Grasso's 58% striking defense is the best defensive metric in this matchup and could help mitigate some of Barber's volume. Her ability to slip punches, use head movement, and maintain guard discipline allows her to reduce the effectiveness of Barber's 4.61 SLpM output. This defensive edge becomes critical in early rounds where Grasso needs to keep the fight at range and avoid the clinch exchanges that favor Barber's pressure style.
Two career rear naked choke finishes — including the legendary 4th-round submission of Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 285 — give Grasso a legitimate finishing weapon on the ground that cannot be ignored. Her 0.61 submissions per 15 minutes is a significant advantage over Barber's 0.09, meaning any scramble that exposes Barber's back creates a fight-ending opportunity. This ever-present RNC threat also forces Barber to be cautious about overly aggressive ground-and-pound sequences.
Grasso has been in bigger moments against better fighters. Five championship rounds against Shevchenko across two 5-round title fights — she has been tested at the highest possible level. This championship pedigree brings composure, fight IQ, and the ability to find a way in critical moments. Her technical boxing from orthodox stance and 81% standing strike rate show she excels at maintaining range and working behind her jab, which is effective if she can keep Barber at the end of her punches.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Grasso lands at just 41% accuracy and absorbs 3.73 SApM — prolonged firefights heavily favor Barber's superior efficiency. The 12-point striking accuracy gap (53% vs. 41%) means for every 100 strikes thrown, Barber lands 12 more than Grasso. Over a 15-minute fight at their respective rates, this translates to a massive volume and damage differential that will be clearly visible on the scorecards.
Only 16% of Grasso's significant strikes come from the clinch vs. Barber's 34% — the clinch is a dead zone for Grasso's offense. Barber's physical strength, dirty boxing, and clinch elbows will overwhelm Grasso's limited clinch toolkit. With approximately 25% of this fight projected to be fought in the clinch, this represents a massive scoring gap that Grasso cannot fill.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Grasso needs to make this a technical boxing match at range. Standing at the end of her 66-inch reach and working the jab, she can try to keep Barber honest at distance. Her clean orthodox boxing technique gives her moment-to-moment advantages in pure boxing exchanges. She should use the large cage to maintain range and make Barber work to close the gap, circling off the fence and resetting when Barber closes distance.
Grasso should look for opportunistic takedowns if Barber overcommits, then hunt the back and the RNC. Her 0.61 submissions per 15 minutes and two career rear naked choke finishes make this a devastating weapon. The key is targeting early rounds — her best chance is to bank early rounds before Barber's pressure becomes overwhelming. Attacking the body and legs to slow Barber's forward march will buy time for these opportunities to develop.
🚀 Maycee Barber Key Advantages
Barber's 4.61 SLpM output at 53% accuracy is a devastating combination. She lands more strikes with greater precision than Grasso (4.11 SLpM, 41% accuracy), creating a significant volume and efficiency advantage. Over a 15-minute fight, this compounds into a massive output differential. Barber's ability to maintain this pace while mixing strikes from range and clinch makes her nearly impossible to outpoint in exchanges. Her composite striking score of 78 (vs. Grasso's 59) reflects this comprehensive offensive superiority.
Barber's 34% clinch strike rate vs. Grasso's 16% reveals a massive clinch advantage. Unlike Grasso, who defaults to range boxing, Barber thrives in close quarters with dirty boxing, elbows, and knees. She can close distance quickly, smother Grasso's jab, and enforce a fight tempo that Grasso cannot match. Combined with her 1.58 TD/15min and 45% takedown accuracy, Barber can mix takedowns with clinch work to dominate scoring zones. Her physical strength advantage at 27 vs. 32 makes inside fighting increasingly dangerous for Grasso as the fight progresses.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Barber's near-zero submission offense (0.09/15min) and aggressive ground-and-pound style leave her back exposed. If Grasso can survive the initial takedown pressure and transition to back control, Barber has shown little ability to threaten submissions or defend against RNC attempts. This vulnerability makes every scramble potentially fight-ending for the wrong reasons. Grasso's two career RNC finishes demonstrate she can capitalize on exactly these moments.
If Grasso can consistently maintain distance and make this a pure boxing match, her technical jab and movement could frustrate Barber's forward march. In the large 30ft cage, Grasso has more room to circle and reset, potentially limiting Barber's ability to establish the clinch exchanges where she dominates. However, this requires Grasso to avoid the fence and maintain lateral movement for three full rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Barber's optimal strategy is to close distance early and often, smothering Grasso's jab with pressuring combinations and clinch entries. Her 34% clinch strike rate and physical strength advantage at 27 make inside fighting her primary scoring zone. She should use the first round to establish the pace and make Grasso fight at a tempo she can't sustain. Mixing takedown attempts with clinch work keeps Grasso guessing and prevents her from settling into range boxing.
When Barber secures cage position, she should mix takedowns with clinch elbows and dirty boxing. Her 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes at 45% accuracy gives her a significant wrestling advantage. On top, she should maintain heavy top pressure and ground-and-pound rather than attempting submissions. Unlike Grasso, who threatens from bottom, Barber's path to victory through ground control requires disciplined position maintenance and avoiding scrambles where Grasso could take her back.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates interesting dynamics in this matchup. Initially, the large cage benefits Grasso's range boxing and movement, allowing her to maintain distance and work behind her jab. However, Barber's relentless pressure and forward march gradually compress the available space, forcing Grasso into clinch exchanges where Barber dominates. As the fight progresses, Barber's ability to cut off angles and pin Grasso against the fence transforms the large cage into a pressure cooker, negating Grasso's movement advantage and creating the inside fighting scenarios Barber thrives in.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals striking efficiency as the primary battlefield. Barber's 4.61 SLpM at 53% accuracy vs. Grasso's 4.11 SLpM at 41% accuracy creates a significant volume and efficiency gap. Barber's composite striking score of 78 vs. Grasso's 59 reflects comprehensive offensive superiority. The clinch strike distribution (34% vs. 16%) adds another dimension where Barber dominates. While Grasso's 58% striking defense is the best defensive metric in the matchup, it may not be enough to overcome the persistent volume and accuracy disadvantage over three rounds. Barber's 1.58 TD/15min at 45% accuracy also provides a wrestling dimension that Grasso cannot match.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: striking exchanges at range vs. clinch work, submission threats on the ground, and pace management. Grasso's 58% striking defense and technical boxing give her moments at range, but Barber's 53% accuracy and forward pressure consistently close the distance. On the ground, Grasso's 0.61 Sub/15min creates upset potential through RNC attempts, but Barber's takedown ability (1.58 TD/15min) and top control make ground exchanges dangerous for both. The pace battle likely favors Barber, whose 12:23 average fight duration and 7-fight win streak demonstrate sustaining pressure over three rounds, while Grasso's 2-fight losing streak raises concerns about confidence and urgency.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Maycee Barber by Decision (37% probability), achieved through sustained pressure, clinch dominance, and volume striking advantages over three rounds. Barber's KO/TKO path (15%) becomes viable through ground-and-pound accumulation or clinch elbows, particularly in rounds 2-3 when Grasso's defensive resistance diminishes. Grasso's best path is by Submission (12%), hunting the RNC from scrambles or back-takes created by Barber's aggression. Grasso's Decision path (22%) requires maintaining range control and outboxing Barber for all three rounds — a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely as Barber's pressure escalates.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 38% | Fair: +163
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% | Fair: +355
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 61% | Fair: -156
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Grasso's name value – Market likely gives too much credit to former champion status despite 2-fight skid.
- • Underprices clinch dominance – 34% vs 16% clinch rate differential is massive and rarely reflected in odds.
- • Volume gap undervalued – Barber's 53% accuracy vs Grasso's 41% compounds over three rounds.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alexa Grasso
Range boxing and outpointing over three rounds
Zero UFC KO wins makes this unlikely
RNC from back-takes off scrambles; 0.61 Sub/15min
💥Outcome Distribution - Maycee Barber
GNP, clinch elbows, and volume accumulation stoppages
Primary path via volume striking and clinch control
Near-zero Sub/15min; mostly GNP stoppages coded as TKO
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Alexa Grasso
- • Round 1 range boxing: Highest jab efficiency before Barber closes distance.
- • Scramble submissions: RNC attempts from back-takes off Barber's aggression.
- • Counter movement: Circle away from fence; avoid prolonged clinch exchanges.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Maycee Barber
- • Clinch control: Dirty boxing and elbows smother Grasso's range game.
- • Volume accumulation: 4.61 SLpM at 53% accuracy banks rounds on scorecards.
- • Late pressure: Physical strength advantage compounds as Grasso tires.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid edge via striking volume and clinch dominance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Barber's 53% accuracy vs Grasso's 41% creates volume edge
- • 34% clinch strike rate dominance over Grasso's 16%
- • 7-fight win streak vs Grasso's 2-fight losing streak
- • Physical strength and age advantage (27 vs 32)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Grasso's 58% striking defense could frustrate volume
- • RNC threat from Grasso in scrambles
- • Championship experience and composure under pressure
🏁Executive Summary
Maycee Barber's relentless pressure, clinch dominance, and striking volume advantages should gradually override Alexa Grasso's technical boxing and defensive skills over three rounds. Barber's 4.61 SLpM at 53% accuracy vs Grasso's 4.11 at 41% creates a persistent volume and efficiency gap, while her 34% clinch strike rate (vs 16%) adds a dominant inside dimension. Grasso's submission threat (0.61 Sub/15min) provides the primary upset path, but Barber's wrestling (1.58 TD/15min, 45% accuracy) and 7-fight win streak suggest she can manage the pace and avoid the scrambles that lead to Grasso's best opportunities.
Prediction: Barber by Decision most likely (38% probability) through sustained pressure and volume striking; Grasso's best upset lane is Submission (7%) via RNC from scrambles. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Grasso can maintain distance and exploit submission opportunities before Barber's pressure becomes overwhelming.