Melissa Mullins vs Luana Carolina
Women's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Saturday, March 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Melissa Mullins
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Luana Carolina
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Melissa Mullins
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2025 | Daria Zhelezniakova | L | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Klaudia Syguła | W | KO/TKO (R2, 1:20) |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Nora Cornolle | L | KO/TKO (R2, 3:06) |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Irina Alekseeva | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Nov 3, 2022 | Daria Zheleznyakova | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:59) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Luana Carolina
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2025 | Michelle Montague | L | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Lucie Pudilová | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Julija Stoliarenko | W | KO/TKO (R3, 4:52) |
| Jul 1, 2023 | Ivana Petrović | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Mar 18, 2023 | Joanne Wood | L | S-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (58.0 vs 71.0) and Grappling Composite (65.0 vs 43.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Melissa Mullins Key Advantages
Mullins' 2.03 takedowns per 15 minutes versus Carolina's 0.30 represents a massive 6.8x differential that could fundamentally control the fight's complexion. Mullins' 43% takedown accuracy against Carolina's 69% takedown defense suggests she can find entries, and her wrestling background gives her chain-wrestling ability to convert on subsequent attempts when initial shots are defended. The large cage may make it harder to cut off Carolina, but Mullins' pressure-forward style is designed to close distance and force clinch exchanges where her grappling superiority becomes the defining factor.
Mullins' elite 86% takedown defense versus Carolina's 69% creates a grappling asymmetry that strongly favors the English fighter. While Carolina doesn't typically initiate takedowns (0.30 per 15 min), any scramble situations or desperation shots are highly unlikely to succeed against Mullins' takedown defense. This means Mullins can dictate where the fight takes place—she can keep it standing when she wants, or take it to the mat on her terms. This positional control advantage is a key differentiator in a matchup between two fighters with contrasting stylistic preferences.
Mullins' 57% finish rate (4 KO/TKO wins in 7 victories) indicates genuine stopping power that Carolina must respect. Three of her four KO/TKO finishes came in Round 1, showing explosive early-round power that can end fights before Carolina's volume and cardio advantages become relevant. Carolina's 51% striking defense and history of being stopped twice by KO/TKO suggest she can be hurt by power punchers. If Mullins can land clean shots early—particularly in clinch exchanges or after takedown scrambles—her power could be the fight-ending equalizer.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Carolina's 4.65 SLpM output significantly exceeds Mullins' 3.71, creating a volume disadvantage that compounds over three rounds if the fight stays standing. Mullins absorbs 4.39 strikes per minute while Carolina only absorbs 3.46, indicating Mullins takes more damage in exchanges. If Mullins fails to establish her wrestling game and the fight becomes a pure striking contest, Carolina's superior output and lower absorption rate will likely win rounds on the scorecards.
Mullins' cardio score of 55 versus Carolina's 73 represents a significant conditioning gap. With an average fight duration of 11:07, Mullins tends to fade in later rounds while Carolina's 13:28 average shows she's comfortable going the distance. If Mullins front-loads her wrestling early but fails to finish or accumulate enough control time, she risks running out of gas in the third round where Carolina's superior conditioning could prove decisive.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Mullins should look to establish her wrestling early, using pressure to close distance and secure body lock takedowns against the fence. Her 2.03 TD per 15 min rate suggests she'll look for takedown opportunities early and often. By mixing in level changes with her striking, she can keep Carolina guessing and prevent the Brazilian from settling into her preferred striking rhythm. Control time on the mat is Mullins' most reliable path to winning rounds.
Mullins should use her clinch work to neutralize Carolina's range striking while threatening both takedowns and close-range power shots. Her KO/TKO finishing ability means Carolina must respect her power in the pocket, which opens up takedown entries. By staying in the clinch where Carolina's volume advantage is neutralized, Mullins can grind out rounds while looking for moments to land fight-changing shots. Dirty boxing and short elbows in the clinch should be key weapons.
🚀 Luana Carolina Key Advantages
Carolina's 4.65 SLpM output significantly exceeds Mullins' 3.71, creating a 25% volume advantage that dominates scoring when fights remain on the feet. Her 51% striking accuracy compared to Mullins' 50% shows similar precision but with substantially higher output. The Brazilian's ability to maintain this pace over three rounds, combined with her striking composite score of 71 (vs Mullins' 58), indicates a clear technical and volume superiority in the striking department. Carolina's lower absorption rate (3.46 vs 4.39 SApM) means she takes less damage in exchanges while delivering more.
Carolina's cardio score of 73 versus Mullins' 55 represents a massive conditioning advantage. Her 13:28 average fight duration compared to Mullins' 11:07 shows she's far more comfortable going the distance. With 10 UFC fights to Mullins' 4, Carolina has significantly more octagon experience, including seven decision wins that prove she can maintain output over three full rounds. This endurance edge becomes increasingly important as the fight progresses—if Mullins' early wrestling pressure doesn't yield results, Carolina's pace advantage in rounds 2 and 3 could be decisive.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Carolina's grappling composite of 43 versus Mullins' 65 represents a significant ground game deficit. Her 69% takedown defense is respectable but may not hold up against Mullins' persistent wrestling pressure (2.03 TD per 15 min). Once taken down, Carolina's limited submission offense (0.61 Sub/15 min) and lack of wrestling credentials could leave her stuck on her back, accumulating control time losses that are nearly impossible to overcome on the scorecards.
Carolina has been stopped twice by KO/TKO in her career, and Mullins' 57% finish rate with 4 KO/TKO victories (3 in Round 1) presents a genuine early knockout threat. Carolina's 51% striking defense leaves her vulnerable to clean power shots, especially in the clinch or during scramble situations. If Mullins lands flush early before the fight settles into Carolina's preferred rhythm, the Brazilian could be in serious trouble.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Carolina's optimal strategy involves maintaining distance and utilizing her reach advantage (69" vs 68") and volume output to outwork Mullins on the feet. The large 30-foot cage provides ample space to circle away from Mullins' pressure and avoid getting pinned against the fence. By staying at range and using her jab, low kicks, and lateral movement, Carolina can score points while making Mullins' takedown entries more difficult. The key is never letting Mullins establish clinch position or close the distance for extended periods.
Carolina should look to weather Mullins' early wrestling storm and capitalize on her superior conditioning in rounds 2 and 3. Her cardio advantage (73 vs 55) means she can maintain her 4.65 SLpM output while Mullins' pace diminishes. By surviving the first round's wrestling pressure and establishing her striking rhythm, Carolina can outwork a fading Mullins down the stretch. Her seven decision wins demonstrate she knows how to manage pace and point-fight effectively over three rounds. Late-round volume will be key to securing the decision.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon at the O2 Arena creates a dynamic that initially favors Carolina's footwork and volume striking approach. The larger cage gives her more room to circle, maintain distance, and avoid Mullins' pressure wrestling. However, Mullins' forward-moving style is specifically designed to cut off cage space and force clinch exchanges. The English fighter will need to close distance efficiently and avoid long stretches at range where Carolina's 4.65 SLpM output can dominate the scorecards. As the fight progresses, Mullins' pressure should compress the available space, but her cardio concerns (55 vs 73) mean this pressure may diminish in later rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a clear striking disparity that favors Carolina. Her 4.65 SLpM versus Mullins' 3.71, combined with a lower absorption rate (3.46 vs 4.39 SApM), creates a net strike differential that strongly favors the Brazilian in stand-up exchanges. However, Mullins' grappling composite of 65 versus Carolina's 43 represents the equalizer—her 2.03 TD per 15 min rate against Carolina's 69% takedown defense creates genuine wrestling threats that can nullify the striking gap. The fight essentially becomes a battle between Carolina's volume striking superiority and Mullins' wrestling control, with cardio conditioning (73 vs 55) increasingly favoring Carolina as the fight progresses.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first, Mullins' takedown success rate against Carolina's 69% defense; second, whether the fight stays at range where Carolina thrives or moves to the clinch where Mullins can implement her wrestling; and third, late-round pace sustainability. Carolina's cardio advantage (13:28 avg duration vs 11:07) becomes increasingly important as the fight progresses. If Mullins can't secure consistent takedowns in the first two rounds, Carolina's volume and conditioning will likely take over in Round 3. The home crowd at the O2 Arena could provide Mullins an emotional boost, but the statistical profile strongly favors Carolina's path to a decision victory.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Luana Carolina by Decision (38% probability), achieved through consistent volume striking and superior conditioning over three rounds. Carolina's KO/TKO path (17%) becomes viable through clinch damage and volume accumulation, particularly via Muay Thai elbows and knees. Mullins' upset paths are split between a decision win on wrestling control (18%) and a KO/TKO via ground-and-pound (17%), with her power finishing ability providing genuine early knockout threat. The submission probabilities are low for both fighters (Mullins 3%, Carolina 7%). Overall, this is a competitive matchup where Carolina's volume and cardio edges give her the clearer path to victory, but Mullins' wrestling represents a genuine equalizer that keeps this fight closer than the odds suggest.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 38% | Fair: +163
GOOD VALUE
Model: 62% | Fair: -163
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 17% | Fair: +488
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Carolina's volume edge – +0.94 SLpM differential drives consistent scoring.
- • Wrestling as equalizer – Mullins' 2.03 TD/15min could disrupt Carolina's rhythm.
- • Home crowd factor – London venue gives Mullins intangible emotional edge.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Melissa Mullins
Wrestling control and takedown accumulation
Ground-and-pound after takedown, early power
Very low submission profile historically
💥Outcome Distribution - Luana Carolina
Most likely outcome via volume striking superiority
Clinch damage and Muay Thai weapons
Kneebar and occasional ground game
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Luana Carolina
- • Volume output: 4.65 SLpM creates consistent scoring.
- • Cardio edge: 73 vs 55 cardio score favors late-round surges.
- • Range control: Maintain distance; avoid clinch and takedowns.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Melissa Mullins
- • Early wrestling: Secure takedowns in R1 to bank control time.
- • Clinch pressure: Force exchanges in close quarters.
- • Power finishing: Ground-and-pound after takedowns for stoppage.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence; Carolina's volume edge vs Mullins' wrestling X-factor
✅Supporting Factors
- • Carolina's +0.94 SLpM volume advantage drives scoring
- • Superior cardio (73 vs 55) favors late rounds
- • Lower absorption rate (3.46 vs 4.39 SApM)
- • More UFC experience (10 fights vs 4)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Mullins' 2.03 TD/15min wrestling pressure
- • Home crowd at O2 Arena, London
- • Carolina's 69% TDDef is exploitable
🏁Executive Summary
Luana Carolina's volume striking superiority and conditioning advantage should allow her to outwork Melissa Mullins over three rounds, particularly if the fight remains standing. Carolina's 4.65 SLpM output versus Mullins' 3.71, combined with her lower absorption rate (3.46 vs 4.39 SApM), creates a net strike differential that consistently earns scorecards. Her 13:28 average fight duration with seven decision wins demonstrates she can maintain this pace throughout the bout. However, Mullins' wrestling (2.03 TD/15min, 43% accuracy) represents a genuine equalizer that could neutralize Carolina's striking advantages if she can consistently take the fight to the ground.
Prediction: Carolina by Decision most likely (38% probability) through consistent volume striking and superior conditioning over three rounds; Mullins' upset paths center on wrestling control (18% Decision) or early KO/TKO via ground-and-pound (17%). The fight's outcome hinges on whether Mullins can implement her wrestling early before Carolina's volume and cardio edges take over in the later rounds.