Shanelle Dyer vs Ravena Oliveira
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Saturday, March 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Shanelle Dyer
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Ravena Oliveira
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Shanelle Dyer
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2025 | Carol Foro | L | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Valentina Scatizzi | W | S-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Jun 8, 2024 | Mariam Torchinava | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:53) |
| Dec 15, 2023 | Liliya Kazak | W | KO/TKO (R3, 1:08) |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Luisa Cifuentes | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ravena Oliveira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Stephanie Luciano | L | SUB (RNC) (R3, 2:50) |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Tainara Lisboa | L | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Simone da Silva | W | KO/TKO (R3, 4:16) |
| Jul 15, 2023 | Raquel de Andrade | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:27) |
| Jan 29, 2022 | Sheila Amaral | W | SUB (R3, 1:38) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Shanelle Dyer Key Advantages
Dyer lands 7.67 significant strikes per minute compared to Oliveira's 1.40 SLpM — a 5.5x volume differential that creates overwhelming pressure. Her aggressive, come-forward style generates constant activity and damage accumulation. With 4 of her 6 career wins coming by KO/TKO, Dyer carries genuine finishing power at strawweight. This volume and power combination can overwhelm Oliveira's 50% striking defense and force the Brazilian into reactive positions where she struggles to implement her grappling gameplan.
At 24, Dyer is on a steep developmental trajectory with 4 consecutive wins including a DWCS contract win over Nicolle Caliari. Her improving skillset and aggressive mindset make her a dangerous opponent for the more experienced but less dynamic Oliveira. Dyer's confidence is peaking — her recent finishes show increasing precision and fight IQ, and the home crowd advantage at London's O2 Arena will further fuel her energy and aggression.
Dyer stands 5'6" with a 65" reach, giving her a slight physical edge over the 5'5" Oliveira. While the reach is identical, Dyer's height advantage allows her to use downward angles on strikes and create leverage in the clinch. Her longer frame also makes it harder for Oliveira to close the distance and execute takedown entries. This physical advantage compounds with Dyer's aggressive style, allowing her to control range and dictate where the fight takes place.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Oliveira can consistently secure takedowns using her 1.08 TD/15min rate and 66% accuracy, she can neutralize Dyer's striking advantage entirely. Dyer has zero recorded takedown defense or offensive grappling stats, suggesting limited experience defending and working from her back. Extended periods of ground control could drain Dyer's energy and accumulate scoring time for Oliveira, turning the fight into a grappling clinic that negates Dyer's power.
Dyer absorbs 7.80 strikes per minute — one of the highest rates at strawweight. Her aggressive come-forward style leaves her defensively exposed with only 44% striking defense. While she overwhelms opponents with volume, a disciplined counter-striker like Oliveira could capitalize on Dyer's defensive openings. If the fight goes to the championship rounds, this damage accumulation could become a significant factor in judges' scoring.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Dyer should look to maintain a high pace from the opening bell, using her 7.67 SLpM output to overwhelm Oliveira before the Brazilian can establish her grappling. By staying in Oliveira's face with combinations and not giving her space to set up takedowns, Dyer can keep the fight in her preferred range. The key is maintaining pressure while staying disciplined enough to avoid overcommitting to single strikes that leave her vulnerable to clinch entries.
When Oliveira shoots for takedowns, Dyer needs to sprawl effectively and immediately return to her feet. Using the large cage to circle away from the fence and reset at range is critical — once pinned against the fence, Oliveira's clinch grappling becomes her most dangerous weapon. Dyer should use footwork and angles to deny Oliveira's entries while maintaining her striking volume. Quick fence escapes and lateral movement will be essential to keeping this fight standing where Dyer has a massive advantage.
🚀 Ravena Oliveira Key Advantages
Oliveira brings a legitimate grappling threat with 1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes at 66% accuracy — numbers that represent the only recorded grappling offense in this matchup. With 3 submission wins on her record and a composite grappling score of 32.57 vs Dyer's 0.00, she holds a total monopoly on the ground game. Her ability to secure takedowns and threaten submissions creates a dimension that Dyer simply cannot match. The Brazilian's BJJ credentials give her multiple paths to victory once the fight hits the mat.
Oliveira absorbs only 2.80 strikes per minute compared to Dyer's 7.80 — a nearly 3x differential that favors the Brazilian's defensive approach. Her 50% striking defense is notably higher than Dyer's 44%, suggesting she can weather the early storm and survive the initial onslaught. This defensive efficiency becomes increasingly important as the fight progresses, allowing Oliveira to stay composed while Dyer's aggressive approach potentially leads to fatigue and diminishing returns.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Dyer's 7.67 SLpM output could create an overwhelming volume that Oliveira cannot handle. With only 1.40 SLpM of her own, Oliveira risks being completely outworked on the feet. If she cannot establish takedowns early, the striking differential will rapidly accumulate, putting her at risk of a TKO stoppage or lopsided decision loss. The London crowd will amplify Dyer's aggression, creating a hostile environment for the Brazilian.
If Dyer can stuff Oliveira's takedown attempts, the Brazilian's entire gameplan unravels. With a 29% striking accuracy and minimal volume, Oliveira has very few tools to compete on the feet. Failed takedowns waste energy and leave Oliveira in disadvantageous positions where Dyer can unload with power strikes. Each unsuccessful shot compounds the energy deficit and reduces Oliveira's ability to compete as the fight progresses.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Oliveira's optimal strategy involves closing the distance as quickly as possible and establishing the clinch. From the clinch, she can work body-lock takedowns and trips that bypass Dyer's length. Once on the ground, Oliveira should prioritize positional control and submission threats to accumulate scoring time. The Brazilian needs to make each takedown count by maintaining top position for extended periods rather than allowing Dyer to stand back up quickly.
Oliveira must survive the early onslaught from Dyer's aggressive striking. By staying tight defensively, using head movement, and not engaging in extended exchanges, she can weather Dyer's best rounds. As Dyer's high-volume output begins to fatigue her (7.67 SLpM is unsustainable at full power over 3 rounds), Oliveira's takedown threats become increasingly effective. The Brazilian should look to take the fight to the ground especially in rounds 2 and 3 when Dyer's output may begin to diminish.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Stylistic Clash
This matchup presents a classic striker vs grappler dynamic at women's strawweight. Dyer's 7.67 SLpM output dwarfs Oliveira's 1.40, creating a 5.5x striking volume differential that makes standing exchanges extremely lopsided. However, Oliveira's grappling credentials — 1.08 TD/15min at 66% accuracy with 3 submission wins — give her a clear path to neutralize Dyer's striking. The fight will be decided by whether Dyer can keep this fight standing or whether Oliveira can consistently close the distance and bring the fight to the mat where she has a massive advantage.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a stark contrast between these fighters. Dyer's striking metrics are elite — 7.67 SLpM with 46% accuracy and genuine KO power (4 KO/TKO wins). But her 7.80 SApM absorption rate and 44% striking defense reveal significant defensive vulnerabilities. Oliveira's grappling composite score of 32.57 vs Dyer's 0.00 represents a complete monopoly on the ground game. The Brazilian's 50% striking defense and lower absorption rate (2.80 SApM) suggest she can survive the early striking exchanges long enough to implement her takedown-based gameplan. The key variable is Dyer's untested takedown defense — with no recorded TDD stats, it's unclear how she'll handle Oliveira's grappling entries.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Two critical battle areas will determine the outcome: fight location and early-round damage. If Dyer can keep the fight standing for the majority of each round, her overwhelming volume advantage makes her a heavy favorite. Her 4-fight win streak and home crowd advantage at London's O2 Arena add momentum factors that favor aggressive early finishes. Conversely, if Oliveira can establish clinch control and execute takedowns, her grappling advantage becomes decisive. The Brazilian's submission threat means she doesn't need to dominate on the ground — a single well-timed submission attempt can end the fight at any moment.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Shanelle Dyer by KO/TKO (30% probability), achieved through her overwhelming striking volume and power advantage. Dyer's decision path (22%) is also strong if she can maintain distance and deny takedowns over three rounds. Oliveira's best chance lies in submission (15%) if she can consistently secure takedowns and threaten from dominant positions. The Brazilian's decision path (10%) requires sustained ground control across all three rounds — a challenging proposition given Dyer's energy and the likelihood that the British fighter will scramble back to her feet quickly. Overall, Dyer's striking advantages and momentum give her the edge at 68%.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 34% | Fair: +194
GOOD VALUE
Model: 26% | Fair: +285
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 8% | Fair: +1150
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Grappling threat overrated – Oliveira's TD attempts may fail against Dyer's scrambling.
- • Volume differential underpriced – 5.5x striking gap drives early finishes.
- • Home crowd advantage – London atmosphere amplifies Dyer's aggression significantly.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Shanelle Dyer
Most likely outcome via outpointing with volume and activity
Overwhelming striking volume and power finish
Unlikely but possible via scramble opportunities
💥Outcome Distribution - Ravena Oliveira
Requires sustained control and grinding over three rounds
Power punches or ground-and-pound finish
Grappling path via takedowns into dominant position
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ravena Oliveira
- • First 5 minutes: Close distance and establish takedown threat.
- • Clinch engagement: Dirty boxing and trips to bring fight to mat.
- • Submission hunting: Capitalize on Dyer's untested ground game.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Shanelle Dyer
- • High volume: 7.67 SLpM output overwhelms defensively.
- • Range control: Use reach and footwork to deny takedowns.
- • Finish instinct: Power shots when Oliveira overcommits on entries.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid edge via striking volume and power differential
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive striking volume gap (7.67 vs 1.40 SLpM)
- • 4-fight win streak with finishing ability
- • Home crowd advantage at London O2 Arena
- • Youth and momentum at 24 years old
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Untested takedown defense (no recorded TDD)
- • High absorption rate (7.80 SApM)
- • Oliveira's submission threat from dominant positions
🏁Executive Summary
Shanelle Dyer's overwhelming striking volume and power advantage should be the defining factor in this women's strawweight matchup. Her 7.67 SLpM output compared to Oliveira's 1.40 creates a 5.5x striking volume differential that makes standing exchanges heavily one-sided. The British fighter's 4-fight win streak, youth advantage at 24, and the home crowd at London's O2 Arena add significant momentum factors. However, Oliveira's grappling credentials — including 3 submission wins and a 66% takedown accuracy — represent a legitimate path to upset. The key uncertainty is Dyer's untested takedown defense: with no recorded TDD statistics, it's unclear how she'll handle Oliveira's grappling entries. Despite this, the striking disparity and Dyer's finishing ability favor her in the majority of simulated outcomes.
Prediction: Dyer by Decision most likely (34% probability) through her overwhelming striking volume and activity advantage; KO/TKO finish (26%) is a strong secondary pathway if her volume overwhelms Oliveira in later rounds. Oliveira's best upset path is submission (8%) if she can consistently secure takedowns and threaten from dominant positions. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Oliveira can close the distance and bring the fight to the ground before Dyer's striking volume becomes decisive.