Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
Lightweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Saturday, March 21, 2026
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Shem Rock
12-2-1
Shem Rock
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
15-4-0
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Shem Rock
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Nurullo Aliev | Loss | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2025-05-17 | Attila Korkmaz | Win | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | Jaroslav Pokorný | Win | Submission (1, 3:06) |
| 2024-04-20 | Stefano Catacoli | Win | Submission (1, 1:47) |
| 2023-07-28 | Jan Malach | Win | Submission (1, 2:08) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-02 | Loik Radzhabov | Loss | KO/TKO (3, 0:49) |
| 2023-10-20 | Islam Reda | Win | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-15 | George Hardwick | Win | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-17 | Michael Murphy | Win | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-23 | Chris Pecero | Win | KO/TKO (1, 2:44) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Shem Rock Key Advantages
Rock is one of the most dangerous submission artists in the lightweight division debut class. Nine career wins by submission — five by Rear Naked Choke alone — demonstrate elite finishing ability on the ground. His three consecutive RNC finishes in OKTAGON (Malach R1 2:08, Catacoli R1 1:47, Pokorny R1 3:06) prove this is a reliable, repeatable skill. Against Al-Selwady's catastrophic 20% TDD, Rock needs just one clean entry to end this fight.
At 5'11" with a 73-inch reach, Rock holds a commanding 3-inch height advantage and a decisive 4-inch reach advantage over Al-Selwady (5'8", 69" reach). These are substantial differentials in the lightweight division. Rock can operate at distance, use his jab to manage range, and create problems on the outside. His southpaw stance amplifies this, as Al-Selwady will be fighting at reach disadvantage against unorthodox angles.
Rock has fought 3 times in 2025 and will have had 4 months since his last fight. Al-Selwady hasn't fought in nearly 2 years with 4 cancelled bouts. Ring rust is a real factor, and Rock's sharpness advantage could be significant. Fighting at the O2 Arena in London as a British fighter from Liverpool, Rock will have a vocal crowd behind him. His southpaw stance presents persistent problems for orthodox fighters, and Al-Selwady has not faced a prominent southpaw in his recent career.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Al-Selwady overwhelms with the same volume he showed against Hardwick (69 significant strikes) and doesn't allow Rock to establish range or clinch entries, Rock could find himself absorbing punishment for 15 minutes — Rock's 11% takedown accuracy is genuinely poor and his entire submission game becomes irrelevant if he cannot close the distance. Against Aliev, Rock landed only 44 significant strikes over 15 minutes. If Al-Selwady fights similarly to Aliev, Rock may lack the offensive tools to win on the feet.
Al-Selwady has not competed since March 2024 with 4 cancelled bouts disrupting preparation cycles. However, Al-Selwady trains at Fortis MMA with world-class coaches who will have drilled takedown defense relentlessly — the gym's coaching quality could close that 20% TDD gap significantly. If Al-Selwady's sharpness holds despite the layoff, his 4.14 SLpM volume advantage could overwhelm Rock the same way Aliev did in Rock's UFC debut. The Fortis MMA preparation advantage should not be underestimated.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Rock will look to use his 4-inch reach advantage to manage distance, using his jab and southpaw movement to frustrate Al-Selwady's entries. When openings present themselves, Rock will time clinch entries off Al-Selwady's wild volume striking, secure body locks against the cage, and work for takedowns or back takes. He needs just one clean grappling exchange to potentially end the fight via Rear Naked Choke.
Rock's entire camp will be built around exploiting Al-Selwady's catastrophic 20% takedown defense. He doesn't need to dominate on the feet; he just needs to survive standing long enough to manufacture one grappling exchange, take the back, and sink a Rear Naked Choke. His five career RNC finishes prove this is a reliable, repeatable skill that can end the fight from any position once he gets to the back.
🚀 Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Key Advantages
Al-Selwady throws 41% more significant strikes per minute than Rock (4.14 vs 2.93 overall) — a high-output pressure fighter who looks to overwhelm opponents with volume. In his DWCS win over George Hardwick, he landed 69 significant strikes demonstrating the ability to sustain output over 15 minutes. Against Rock's lower output striking, this volume could earn rounds and create cumulative damage that leads to a late stoppage or comfortable decision.
Eight career KO/TKO victories including finishes with punches, knees, spinning back elbows, and ground-and-pound demonstrate diverse finishing power. His 53% KO/TKO rate is elite-tier, and against Rock's 56% striking defense, Al-Selwady has a real lane to land significant damage. The knockout of Dumar Roa via knee at Brave CF 29 shows he can finish in unconventional ways.
Al-Selwady trains at Fortis MMA in Dallas, one of the premier gyms in all of MMA. Home to former UFC champions and elite coaches including Sayif Saud, the quality of training partners and coaching he has access to is world-class — and likely superior to Rock's setup at Next Generation MMA Liverpool. This preparation advantage should not be underestimated for this fight.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Al-Selwady has not competed since March 2024 with four cancelled bouts disrupting preparation cycles. The timing, reaction speed, and cage IQ that professional fighters rely on deteriorate with extended inactivity. Ring rust against a submission artist is particularly dangerous because grappling timing and defensive scrambling are among the first skills to deteriorate with inactivity — this is both an unknown and a potential vulnerability.
If Rock can close the distance and work in the clinch where his height advantage is most pronounced, he can set up trips, body-lock takedowns, and back-take entries. Once Rock is on Al-Selwady's back with a 20% TDD, the fight is functionally over. Al-Selwady's 20% takedown defense is a catastrophic vulnerability against a fighter with 5 career Rear Naked Choke finishes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Al-Selwady will push forward with high-output combinations, using his 4.14 SLpM volume to overwhelm Rock's more measured 2.93 SLpM approach. He must stuff takedowns by maintaining distance and using underhooks when the clinch is engaged. If taken down, he needs to scramble immediately back to his feet rather than allow Rock to establish back control. Fortis MMA coaches will have drilled takedown defense relentlessly for this camp.
Al-Selwady must use footwork to circle away from Rock's southpaw power hand and prevent clinch entries. When Rock shoots, Al-Selwady should use sprawls and front headlocks to stuff attempts and return to the feet immediately. He cannot allow Rock to work against the cage where body-lock takedowns and back-takes become available. The key is keeping this fight in open space where his volume advantage is maximized.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
Rock controls fight location approximately 55-60% of the time. His 80% TDD means Al-Selwady cannot take him down, while Al-Selwady's 20% TDD means Rock can potentially get the fight to the ground when he needs to. On the feet, Al-Selwady's superior volume gives him an advantage, but Rock's 4-inch reach and southpaw stance provide defensive tools to manage distance. The large O2 Arena octagon initially benefits Al-Selwady's movement but also gives Rock space to establish his range and time clinch entries.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The composite scores tell a nuanced story. While the striking composites are nearly identical (28.65 vs 27.27), the grappling composite gap is enormous: Rock at 23.55 vs Al-Selwady at 14.58. This 9-point differential is driven primarily by takedown defense — Rock's 80% TDD vs Al-Selwady's catastrophic 20% TDD. This 60-point differential is the single most decisive stat in the matchup. Al-Selwady leads in striking volume (4.14 vs 2.93 SLpM) but his 34% accuracy is below average. Rock's 42% accuracy with lower volume suggests a more selective approach on the feet.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical areas will determine the outcome: Rock's grappling threat vs Al-Selwady's TDD (75% sub rate vs 20% TDD), Al-Selwady's volume striking vs Rock's defense (4.14 SLpM vs Rock's 56% Str Def), and Rock's activity advantage vs Al-Selwady's ring rust (3 fights in 2025 vs 2 year layoff). Al-Selwady's defensive vulnerability in takedown defense aligns catastrophically with Rock's strengths — the 20% TDD against a 75% submission rate is an existential vulnerability. Conversely, Rock's 56% striking defense does create an opening for Al-Selwady's high-volume approach, but being hit is not the same as being finished.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Shem Rock by submission (33% probability), most likely a Rear Naked Choke in rounds 1 or 2, capitalizing on Al-Selwady's catastrophic 20% TDD. Rock's decision path (15%) becomes viable if he can control the fight through grappling but can't find the finish. Al-Selwady's best path to victory is a KO/TKO (21%) using his volume and finishing power, followed by a decision (16%) if he keeps the fight standing for 15 minutes. Rock's KO/TKO path (10%) is less likely but exists — as his career finish rate demonstrates he can end fights in multiple ways. Al-Selwady's submission path (5%) is the least likely outcome given Rock's grappling credentials.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 33% | Fair: +200
GOOD VALUE
Model: 21% | Fair: +375
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 62% | Fair: -160
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Grappling mismatch – Rock's 75% submission rate vs Al-Selwady's 20% TDD is the single most decisive statistical gap in this matchup.
- • Activity disparity – Rock has 3 fights in 2025 vs Al-Selwady's 2-year layoff with 4 cancelled bouts.
- • Striking volume gap – Al-Selwady's 4.14 SLpM vs Rock's 2.93 creates a meaningful output differential if the fight stays standing.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Shem Rock
Secondary path via grappling control over 3 rounds
Possible via power striking but less likely path
Primary path via elite RNC threat and Al-Selwady 20% TDD
💥Outcome Distribution - Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
Primary path via high-volume striking and KO power
Keeping fight standing and outworking Rock with volume
Very unlikely given Rock's grappling superiority
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
- • First 5 minutes: Peak volume striking danger; must impose pace before Rock establishes grappling.
- • Volume pressure: 4.14 SLpM must overwhelm Rock's 2.93 SLpM to earn rounds on the scorecards.
- • Avoid grappling: Must maintain distance and stuff takedowns to prevent Rock's submission game.
🎯Survival Strategy - Shem Rock
- • Reach management: 4-inch reach advantage and southpaw stance to control distance and time entries.
- • Clinch entries: Time entries off Al-Selwady's volume striking to secure body locks and back takes.
- • Submission finish: Exploit 20% TDD to take back and apply Rear Naked Choke for the finish.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Grappling mismatch favors Rock but UFC debut loss raises questions
✅Supporting Factors
- • 75% career submission rate vs Al-Selwady's 20% TDD — massive grappling mismatch
- • 3-inch height and 4-inch reach advantages create range control
- • 3 fights in 2025 vs Al-Selwady's 2-year layoff gives activity edge
- • Southpaw stance provides unfamiliar angles for Al-Selwady
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Rock's 11% TD accuracy in UFC debut (0/9 vs Aliev) — can he take Al-Selwady down?
- • Al-Selwady's 4.14 SLpM volume could overwhelm Rock's 2.93
- • Fortis MMA preparation may close Al-Selwady's TDD gap
🏁Executive Summary
Shem Rock's statistical profile heavily favors him in this matchup. His 75% career submission rate vs Al-Selwady's 20% TDD is a genuine separator — in reach and height (3 inches and 4 inches respectively), Rock's activity edge (3 fights in 2025), and Al-Selwady's extended 2-year inactivity. However, we set conviction at 6/10 because Rock's failed grappling attempts in his UFC debut against Aliev raise legitimate questions about his ability to execute takedowns at the UFC level. If Rock can't get this fight to the ground, Al-Selwady's volume striking (4.14 SLpM) is the clear path to a decision victory.
Prediction: Shem Rock by submission — most likely Rear Naked Choke — in rounds 1 or 2 (33% probability), capitalizing on Al-Selwady's catastrophic 20% TDD. Al-Selwady's primary upset pathway is a KO/TKO (21%) using his volume striking and finishing power, or a decision win (16%) if he keeps the fight standing for 15 minutes. Rock's decision path (15%) becomes viable if he controls through grappling but can't find the finish.