Mick Parkin vs Mario Pinto
Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Saturday, March 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Mick Parkin
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Mario Pinto
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Mick Parkin
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | Marcin Tybura | L | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Lukasz Brzeski | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:23) |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Mohammed Usman | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Caio Machado | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Jamal Pogues | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Mario Pinto
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | Jhonata Diniz | W | KO/TKO (GNP) (R2, 4:10) |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Austen Lane | W | KO/TKO (Right Hook) (R2, 0:39) |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Lucas Camacho | W | KO/TKO (GNP) (R1, 1:43) |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Kasim Aras | W | U-DEC (Full, Full) |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Benjamin Sehic | W | KO/TKO (GNP) (R3, 1:18) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Mick Parkin Key Advantages
Parkin throws significantly more strikes per minute (4.70 vs 3.39), which means he can potentially overwhelm Pinto with constant pressure and volume. In the big cage at the O2 Arena, Parkin can push forward and try to make it a phone booth fight, negating Pinto's precision advantage by forcing exchanges in close range where accuracy matters less than output and durability.
With 5 UFC fights compared to Pinto's 2, Parkin has considerably more experience in the octagon. He's gone the full 15 minutes in 4 of his 5 UFC bouts, demonstrating he can handle the pressure and pace of UFC competition over full duration. His 10:53 average fight time confirms he can sustain output for 15 minutes — if this fight goes into the second and third rounds, we enter uncharted territory for Pinto but familiar ground for Parkin.
Fighting at the O2 Arena in London as a British fighter from Sunderland, Parkin will have a vocal crowd behind him. His marginal but relevant 5% edge in striking defense (58% vs 53%) could help him survive exchanges and make Pinto miss key power shots. The energy of a home crowd can fuel additional output and composure, turning close rounds in his favor through sheer octagon activity.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Pinto connects with his precise, powerful shots in the first 5 minutes, Parkin's 58% striking defense may not be enough. The Brzeski KO showed Parkin has power but also showed he can be hit — Brzeski landed 24 significant strikes in just 3:23. Pinto's 78% striking accuracy combined with his 4.07 knockdown average creates genuine one-punch knockout danger that could end the fight before Parkin's volume and cardio advantages become relevant.
With only 50% takedown defense, if Pinto decides to mix in takedowns (which his 2.72 TD avg suggests he will), Parkin could find himself on his back where Pinto has shown devastating ground and pound — his finishes of Diniz and Hayward demonstrate lethal top control. Parkin's TDD was the primary reason for his loss to Tybura, and Pinto possesses similar grappling capabilities with even more finishing instinct.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Parkin will likely try to establish his jab, push forward with volume, and make this a dirty, scrappy fight. He'll look to use pressure to prevent Pinto from setting his feet and finding range for his power shots. By staying in Pinto's face and maintaining constant output, Parkin can force the fight into a pace contest rather than a precision contest where Pinto excels.
If Parkin can survive the first 5-7 minutes, he'll try to grind out a decision with superior volume. He may attempt takedowns to burn Pinto's energy but should be cautious given Pinto's 100% TDD and ground-and-pound capability. The key is making Pinto work defensively and dragging the fight into deep waters where experience and cardio become the determining factors.
🚀 Mario Pinto Key Advantages
Pinto's 78% striking accuracy is an exceptionally high rate, particularly for a heavyweight — a 28-percentage-point differential over Parkin's 50%. He doesn't throw arm punches; every shot is calculated and carries significant intention. When combined with his finishing power and 4.07 knockdown average, this stat becomes terrifying. His ability to pick precise shots while Parkin pushes forward with volume creates dangerous counter opportunities.
While the sample size is small (2 UFC fights), Pinto has demonstrated genuine one-punch knockout ability. His right hook KO of Austen Lane at 0:39 of round 2 was a legitimate highlight-reel finish, and his full-mount ground and pound of Diniz showed the ability to finish from multiple positions. This devastating power combined with precision creates constant fight-ending danger.
A 100% takedown defense rate, 2.72 takedowns per 15 minutes, and 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes make Pinto a legitimate dual-threat. He can stuff takedowns, take opponents down, and threaten submissions — this is unusual for a heavyweight and creates massive stylistic problems for Parkin, whose 50% TDD was the primary reason for his loss to Tybura.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Pinto has never been past 4:10 in a UFC fight. If Parkin can survive the early storm and drag this into rounds 2 and 3, we genuinely don't know how Pinto responds. His regional fights that went to decision were against significantly lower-caliber opposition. His 3:41 average fight time means we have virtually no data on how he performs past the first 5 minutes — this is both an unknown and a potential vulnerability.
If Parkin can establish a high-output jab and stay disciplined behind his volume, the constant pressure could force Pinto into a reactive mode he hasn't experienced in the UFC. While Pinto fights out of Fightzone London, this is the main card O2 Arena experience with a hostile British crowd. The atmosphere could affect a fighter with limited UFC octagon experience, particularly if the fight extends past his comfort zone.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Pinto will likely look to be patient in the first round, use his accuracy advantage to pick his shots, and set up the power right hand or left hook that has devastating consequences. He'll use his 1-inch height advantage and equal reach to control range while looking for openings in Parkin's high-volume but lower-accuracy (50%) attack. Each counter from Pinto carries significant fight-ending potential.
Pinto will mix in takedowns to keep Parkin guessing and look for opportunities to transition to ground and pound if the fight hits the mat. With Parkin's 50% TDD, these takedown attempts have a realistic chance of success, opening pathways to the devastating top control that finished Diniz. Pinto will aim to finish this fight inside 2 rounds and avoid letting it become a cardio contest where Parkin has the clear advantage.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon at the O2 Arena creates a dynamic that initially offers Parkin space to establish his volume game, but also gives Pinto room to pick his shots with precision. Pinto controls fight location approximately 60-65% of the time due to his 100% TDD (preventing Parkin from dictating position) and his 78% striking accuracy allowing him to score effectively from range. The large cage benefits Parkin's pressure style but also allows Pinto to reset and find angles for his devastating power shots.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Pinto dominates the statistical comparison in 7 out of 9 key metrics. The most alarming differential is the knockdown average: Pinto's 4.07 is astronomical compared to Parkin's 0.23. Pinto's 78% striking accuracy is a genuine separator — a 28-percentage-point differential over Parkin's 50%. His 100% takedown defense eliminates Parkin's ability to change fight location, while his active submission game (1.8 per 15 minutes) adds another layer of danger. Parkin's only statistical advantages are volume (SLpM) and a marginal 5% edge in striking defense.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical areas will determine the outcome: Parkin's volume vs Pinto's precision (4.70 SLpM at 50% accuracy vs 3.39 SLpM at 78% accuracy), Parkin's 50% TDD vs Pinto's 2.72 takedown rate, and whether the fight goes past Pinto's tested duration of 4:10. Parkin's defensive vulnerabilities align perfectly with Pinto's strengths — his 4.13 strikes absorbed per minute means he gets hit frequently, which aligns with Pinto's precision power striking. Conversely, Pinto's 53% striking defense does leave an opening for Parkin's volume.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Mario Pinto by KO/TKO (38% probability), achieved through his elite striking accuracy and devastating knockout power, most likely in the first or second round. Pinto's decision path (14%) is viable if he maintains range control and outscores Parkin through precision. Parkin's best path to victory is a decision (20%) by surviving the early danger and grinding Pinto into deep waters with volume and cardio. Parkin's KO/TKO path (14%) requires catching Pinto clean during exchanges — as the Brzeski finish proved, he does carry power.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 38% | Fair: -110
GOOD VALUE
Model: 20% | Fair: +400
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 66% | Fair: -190
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Sample size concern – Pinto has only 11:02 of total UFC fight time; limited data on durability.
- • Precision vs Volume mismatch – 78% vs 50% accuracy creates a quality-over-quantity dynamic.
- • Heavyweight volatility – One punch can change everything; Parkin showed KO power vs Brzeski.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Mick Parkin
Primary path via volume pressure and late-round cardio
Catching Pinto clean in exchanges like vs Brzeski
Very low historical submission profile (0.2 sub avg)
💥Outcome Distribution - Mario Pinto
Primary path via elite precision and devastating power
Range control and precision outscoring over 3 rounds
Active submission game (1.8 sub avg/15min)
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Mario Pinto
- • First 5 minutes: Peak KO danger; Pinto has never needed more than 4:10 in UFC.
- • Precision counters: 78% accuracy creates fight-ending opportunities on every exchange.
- • Takedown mixing: 2.72 TD avg exploits Parkin's 50% TDD for ground-and-pound finishes.
🎯Survival Strategy - Mick Parkin
- • Volume pressure: 4.70 SLpM keeps Pinto defensive and prevents him setting his feet.
- • Survive early storm: Drag fight past Pinto's tested duration into deep waters.
- • Cardio advantage: 10:53 avg fight time vs 3:41 creates late-round edge.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong statistical edge across 7 of 9 key metrics
✅Supporting Factors
- • 78% striking accuracy — 28-point differential over Parkin
- • 100% TDD eliminates Parkin's grappling path
- • 4.07 knockdown average reflects genuine finishing power
- • 11-0-0 unbeaten record with three consecutive finishes
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Only 11:02 total UFC fight time — limited sample
- • Unknown cardio past 5 minutes against UFC caliber
- • Home crowd advantage for Parkin at O2 Arena
🏁Executive Summary
Mario Pinto's statistical profile heavily favors him in this matchup. His 78% striking accuracy is a genuine separator — a 28-percentage-point differential over Parkin's 50%. His 100% takedown defense eliminates Parkin's ability to change fight location, while his 4.07 knockdown average represents real finishing ability that has already translated to the UFC level. The momentum, the unbeaten 11-0-0 record, and statistical advantages across 7 of 9 key metrics all point toward Pinto. Parkin's path to victory requires surviving the early danger and dragging Pinto into deep waters where his superior cardio (10:53 avg fight time vs 3:41) and volume (4.70 SLpM) become decisive factors.
Prediction: Pinto by KO/TKO most likely (38% probability) through elite precision striking and devastating knockout power, most likely in the first or second round. Parkin's best upset path is a decision (20%) by surviving the early storm and grinding Pinto into deep waters with volume and cardio. This is heavyweight — one punch can change everything — keeping this from being a lock.