Antonio Trocoli vs Mantas Kondratavicius
Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Saturday, March 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Antonio Trocoli
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Mantas Kondratavicius
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Antonio Trocoli
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | Mansur Abdul-Malik | Loss | Sub (Standing Guillotine) (R1, 1:09) |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Tresean Gore | Loss | Sub (Standing Guillotine) (R1, 1:23) |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Shara Magomedov | Loss | KO/TKO (Left Hook) (R3, 2:27) |
| Jul 9, 2019 | Kenneth Bergh | NC | Overturned (Neck Crank) (R1, 3:57) |
| Nov 21, 2021 | Reslley Isael | Win | Sub (RNC) (R1, 2:10) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Mantas Kondratavicius
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | Kamil Dzikowski | Win | U-DEC (Full, -) |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Đani Barbir | Win | KO/TKO (Overhand Right & G&P) (R1, 1:06) |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Michael Tchamou | Win | KO (Right Cross) (R1, 0:47) |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Kirill Lumivuori | Win | Sub (Armbar) (R1, -) |
| Jun 23, 2023 | Virgil Augen | Win | Sub (RNC) (R2, 4:01) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Antonio Trocoli Key Advantages
At 6'5" with an 80-inch reach, Trocoli dwarfs the 6'2" Kondratavicius who operates with a 75-inch reach. This 5-inch reach advantage is enormous at middleweight and allows Trocoli to threaten with long jabs, front kicks, and keep opponents at bay. His length also plays a role in the clinch where he can establish underhooks and control positioning with his frame. However, the question remains whether Trocoli can effectively utilize this advantage given his poor striking output (1.37 SLpM) and accuracy (50%).
Trocoli's ground game is his most dangerous weapon. With 5 career submission victories including rear-naked chokes and various techniques, he has legitimate finishing ability on the mat. His 0.79 submissions per 15 minutes shows he actively hunts for submissions when the fight goes to the ground. If Trocoli can take Kondratavicius down and establish back control or a dominant position, he has the technical skills to submit opponents. Kondratavicius has limited ground defense data, making this a potential wildcard.
Despite his 0-3 UFC record, Trocoli has experience fighting on the biggest stage in MMA. He has faced quality opponents including rising star Shara Magomedov, and he understands the UFC environment, judging criteria, and octagon dynamics. For Kondratavicius making his UFC debut, the pressure and atmosphere could be a factor. Trocoli's 18-fight professional career provides a baseline of experience that the Lithuanian simply cannot match at this level.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Trocoli's 1.37 SLpM vs Kondratavicius's 4.55 SLpM is a catastrophic 232% volume gap. If the fight stays on the feet, Trocoli will be overwhelmed by the Lithuanian's output and pressure. His 24% striking defense means he absorbs almost everything thrown at him, and with 5.55 strikes absorbed per minute, he becomes a stationary target for Kondratavicius's power shots.
At 35, Trocoli is on a 3-fight losing streak in the UFC with all losses coming via finish. His chin and durability are serious concerns—he was submitted twice via standing guillotine and KO'd by Shara Magomedov. Against a younger, explosive opponent like the 26-year-old Kondratavicius, the athletic gap could be insurmountable. The speed differential and reactions favor the Lithuanian heavily.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Trocoli must use his length to close distance and establish the clinch. From there, he should look for trips, body locks, and takedowns to bring the fight to the mat where his submission game becomes dangerous. His frame advantage allows him to control smaller opponents in the clinch, and if he can get underhooks, he has the leverage for effective takedown entries.
Trocoli should push Kondratavicius to the fence and work for body locks and back takes. His submission expertise, particularly with rear-naked chokes, makes back control his most dangerous position. By limiting the Lithuanian's ability to circle away and create space, Trocoli can neutralize the striking disadvantage and create his own offensive opportunities on the mat.
🚀 Mantas Kondratavicius Key Advantages
Kondratavicius's 4.55 SLpM dwarfs Trocoli's anemic 1.37 SLpM, creating a 232% output differential. The Lithuanian's pressure striking approach means he constantly walks forward, throwing heavy combinations, while Trocoli struggles to generate meaningful offense. With 60% striking defense vs Trocoli's catastrophic 24%, Kondratavicius can trade freely knowing he'll land far more than he absorbs. His orthodox stance and heavy overhand right are perfectly calibrated to exploit Trocoli's defensive liabilities.
With 5 of his 8 wins coming via KO/TKO, Kondratavicius carries legitimate one-punch knockout power. His recent finishes—a 47-second KO of Michael Tchamou and a first-round TKO of Đani Barbir—demonstrate the explosive power he carries in his hands. Against a fighter like Trocoli who has shown chin vulnerabilities (KO'd by Magomedov, submitted twice standing), Kondratavicius's power becomes a fight-ending weapon at any moment. His youth and explosiveness at 26 years old compound this advantage significantly.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Kondratavicius's defensive grappling at the UFC level is completely untested. With 0% TD Defense and no UFC fights on his record, we have very limited data on how he handles high-level takedown artists. If Trocoli can drag the fight to the mat, Kondratavicius's advantages are neutralized and he may struggle with Trocoli's submission game from back control or dominant positions.
Kondratavicius is giving up 3 inches in height and 5 inches in reach to Trocoli. This means he needs to close distance to land his power shots, which could expose him to clinch entries from the taller Brazilian. Trocoli's length could be used to smother Kondratavicius's entries and tie him up before he can land clean power shots. The 30ft cage gives Trocoli more room to use his range advantage.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Kondratavicius should pressure forward from the opening bell, cutting off the cage and throwing heavy combinations. His 4.55 SLpM volume will overwhelm Trocoli's 24% striking defense, and by staying in Trocoli's face, he prevents the Brazilian from using his reach advantage effectively. Short hooks, overhands, and uppercuts in the pocket negate the reach differential and exploit Trocoli's lack of head movement and defensive skills.
With 5 of his last 8 fights ending inside Round 1, Kondratavicius should look for the early finish. Trocoli's chin has been compromised—2 straight submission losses and a KO in his 3 UFC fights. By loading up on power shots early, Kondratavicius can test Trocoli's durability before the Brazilian gets comfortable and potentially finds his clinch or takedown game. The speed and power advantage is most pronounced early in the fight.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a complex dynamic in this matchup. In theory, the larger cage should benefit Trocoli's 80-inch reach and 6'5" frame, allowing him to fight at range and use his length advantage. However, Trocoli has never demonstrated effective range management in the UFC—his 1.37 SLpM suggests he doesn't actually use his reach. For Kondratavicius, the larger cage means more distance to close, but his pressure striking style (4.55 SLpM) and aggressive forward movement should allow him to cut off the cage and force exchanges in the pocket where his power shots land clean against Trocoli's 24% striking defense. The cage size ultimately favors the fighter willing to pressure—and that's decisively Kondratavicius.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a dramatic mismatch in striking metrics. Kondratavicius's 4.55 SLpM vs Trocoli's 1.37 SLpM represents a 232% output differential—the Lithuanian simply lands far more strikes per minute. The defensive gap is equally stark: Kondratavicius's 60% striking defense vs Trocoli's catastrophic 24% means Trocoli absorbs 5.55 significant strikes per minute while failing to defend over three-quarters of incoming offense. Trocoli's only statistical edge lies in submissions per 15 minutes (0.79 vs 0.00), but his 10% takedown accuracy makes accessing his ground game extremely difficult. The numbers paint a clear picture: Kondratavicius dominates every measurable striking category while Trocoli's best weapon is functionally inaccessible.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: Trocoli's ability to close distance and establish the clinch, Kondratavicius's power shots vs Trocoli's chin durability, and ground control if the fight hits the mat. Trocoli's 5-inch reach advantage should help at range, but his 1.37 SLpM output means he rarely uses it offensively. The clinch is Trocoli's gateway to takedowns and submissions, but his 10% takedown accuracy and vulnerability to standing guillotines (his last 2 UFC losses) make entries extremely risky. Kondratavicius's KO power (62.5% career KO rate) against Trocoli's compromised chin creates fight-ending danger on every exchange. If Trocoli somehow reaches the ground, his BJJ becomes dangerous—but the pathway to get there is narrow and perilous.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Kondratavicius by KO/TKO (38% probability), driven by his explosive power, 4.55 SLpM output, and Trocoli's catastrophic 24% striking defense. Kondratavicius by Decision (25%) is the secondary pathway if Trocoli survives 3 rounds but is outpointed by the Lithuanian's 3.3x volume advantage. Kondratavicius by Submission (15%) reflects the guillotine choke pathway that has ended Trocoli's last two UFC fights. Trocoli's most realistic win path is by Submission (10%) via his BJJ credentials if he can establish dominant position, while his Decision (7%) and KO/TKO (5%) pathways require overcoming massive statistical disadvantages that nothing in his UFC career suggests he's capable of achieving.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 38% | Fair: +163
GOOD VALUE
Model: ~55% | Both fighters finish early
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 10% | Contrarian upset play
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Trocoli's 0-3 UFC record – All finishes against him; last 2 via same submission in under 90 seconds.
- • 24% StrDef vs 4.55 SLpM – Catastrophic defensive porosity against high-volume striker.
- • UFC debut discount – Kondratavicius untested in UFC atmosphere; debut factor creates uncertainty.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Antonio Trocoli
Best path via BJJ credentials and arm triangle
Requires outpointing 3.3x volume disadvantage
Counter-strike opportunity via reach advantage
💥Outcome Distribution - Mantas Kondratavicius
Most likely single outcome via explosive power
Volume advantage produces clear, decisive rounds
Guillotine pathway validated by Trocoli's last 2 losses
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Mantas Kondratavicius
- • First 3 minutes: Highest KO equity via explosive power shots.
- • Pressure striking: Cut cage + close distance to negate reach disadvantage.
- • Power combinations: Overhand right and ground-and-pound to overwhelm defense.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Antonio Trocoli
- • Range control: Use 5-inch reach edge to keep distance and manage entries.
- • Clinch transitions: Gateway to takedowns and submission attempts.
- • Survive early: Weather storm and look for submission opportunities in scrambles.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via 0-3 UFC record mismatch and striking defense gap
✅Supporting Factors
- • Trocoli 0-3 in UFC with all losses by finish
- • 24% StrDef vs 4.55 SLpM catastrophic mismatch
- • 9-year age gap favoring ascending Kondratavicius
- • Multi-dimensional offense vs inaccessible weapons
⚠️Risk Factors
- • UFC debut unpredictability for Kondratavicius
- • Trocoli's legitimate BJJ credentials (42% sub rate)
- • 5-inch reach provides theoretical counter-strike lane
🏁Executive Summary
Kondratavicius's explosive striking arsenal should systematically overwhelm Trocoli's compromised defense in this 3-round bout. The statistical mismatch is stark: Kondratavicius's 4.55 SLpM against Trocoli's catastrophic 24% striking defense creates one of the most lopsided striking projections on the card. Trocoli's 0-3 UFC record—all finishes, with his last two losses via standing guillotine in under 90 seconds—demonstrates a fundamental competitive gap at the UFC level. While Trocoli possesses legitimate BJJ credentials (42% career sub rate) and a 5-inch reach advantage, his 1.37 SLpM and 10% takedown accuracy make these tools functionally inaccessible against a prepared opponent.
Prediction: Kondratavicius by KO/TKO most likely (38% probability) through explosive power shots against porous striking defense; Trocoli's upset lane is Submission (10%) via his BJJ credentials if he can somehow reach dominant position. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Trocoli can survive Kondratavicius's early blitz and find a pathway to the ground before the Lithuanian's power and volume produce a finish.