Louie Sutherland vs Brando Pericic
Men's Heavyweight Bout Bout • UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Saturday, March 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Louie Sutherland
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Brando Pericic
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Louie Sutherland
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Valter Walker | Loss | Sub (Heel Hook) (1, 1:24) |
| 2025-06-15 | Luke Newland | Win | KO (Punches) (1, 2:50) |
| 2025-04-13 | Matusalém dos Santos | Win | Decision (3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-16 | Luis Carlos de Brito | Win | KO (Punches) (1, 3:25) |
| 2024-12-08 | Renato Rangel | Win | Decision (3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Brando Pericic
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Elisha Ellison | Win | KO/TKO (Punches) (1, 1:55) |
| 2024-11-02 | Orion Kenny | Win | TKO (G&P) (1, 1:08) |
| 2024-10-25 | Tumanako Phillips | Win | KO (Strikes) (1, 0:17) |
| 2024-05-04 | Randall Rayment | Win | Sub (RNC) (2, 1:36) |
| 2024-04-20 | Kelvin Fitial | Loss | Sub (RNC) (1, 3:26) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Louie Sutherland Key Advantages
Sutherland's one undeniable asset is his ability to end fights with a single exchange. At 264 lbs, he carries natural heavyweight mass that generates fight-ending power when his hands connect clean. His 80% KO/TKO rate — built across regional promotions — demonstrates a fighter who is physically capable of hurting anyone he touches. In the heavyweight division, where one punch can change everything, Sutherland's power keeps him dangerous for every second the fight remains standing.
Sutherland is a London native fighting in his home city, in front of an aggressively supportive British crowd. The O2 Arena at UFC London generates one of the most intense atmospheres in global MMA — British heavyweight fans are particularly vocal and partisan. For Sutherland, this translates to adrenaline, emotional fuel, and the intangible confidence of performing for his people. For Peričić, it means fighting in hostile territory 18,000 km from his training base in New Zealand.
Sutherland is the significantly heavier fighter — carrying nearly 20 more pounds into the cage. In clinch exchanges, in grappling scrambles, and in moments of direct physical confrontation, that mass differential can create tactical advantages. If Sutherland can get inside Peričić's reach and impose his physicality, the weight advantage could smother Peričić's explosive offense and create uncomfortable, grinding exchanges where Sutherland's mass dominates.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Peričić uses his 3-inch reach advantage to jab, control distance, and pick Sutherland apart at range, Sutherland could spend the entire fight reaching for a target he cannot touch. Peričić's 67% striking defense means fewer clean shots for Sutherland — and against a technically sophisticated striker from CKB, Sutherland's brawling approach may never establish the close-range exchanges he needs.
Sutherland's grappling is essentially non-existent at the UFC level — he was submitted in 84 seconds in his only octagon appearance. If Peričić's offensive wrestling produces takedown opportunities, Sutherland has no proven ability to return to his feet, defend submissions, or create grappling offense. Peričić's RNC capability specifically mirrors the kind of submission that has already finished Sutherland.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Sutherland should come out aggressive from the opening bell — his best chance of winning is a quick knockout before Peričić's technical advantages and conditioning take over. He should look to crowd the pocket, close inside Peričić's 79" reach, and force mid-range exchanges where his 264-lb frame and power can dominate. Targeting Peričić's body early — sapping energy and punishing the lighter fighter's midsection — while loading up his right hand for the finishing blow is critical.
Clinch work could favor Sutherland if he uses his weight to smother Peričić's offense — dirty boxing and grinding clinch exchanges negate reach and reward mass. He should pressure forward behind his jab, cut the cage using the large 30-foot octagon angles, and drive Peričić toward the fence where Sutherland's mass advantage becomes meaningful. However, he must be extremely cautious about takedown entries and scrambles that could expose him to Peričić's grappling.
🚀 Brando Pericic Key Advantages
This is Peričić's most decisive advantage. Training daily at City Kickboxing — under Eugene Bareman, alongside Israel Adesanya, Alexander Volkanovski, Carlos Ulberg, Dan Hooker — provides a technical, tactical, and conditioning infrastructure that is genuinely world-class. The CKB system produces technically sophisticated, defensively sound, tactically intelligent fighters who consistently outperform their records. Sutherland trains at Fightzone London — a solid regional gym but one that operates at a categorically different level than CKB.
Peričić's UFC debut produced striking metrics that reflect a technically advanced heavyweight. His 67% striking defense, 59% accuracy, and the ability to generate significant strikes from standing (38%), clinch (41%), and ground (21%) positions create a multi-dimensional offensive profile that Sutherland cannot match. While Sutherland is 100% standing and 0% everywhere else, Peričić can damage opponents from any position — in the clinch, on the ground, and at distance.
Peričić's 3-inch reach advantage (79" vs. 76") is a significant tactical tool at heavyweight. He can establish his jab, fight at the end of his punches, and force Sutherland to overcommit on entries to close the distance — entries that create opportunities for counters and defensive repositioning. At 6'5" with 79" of reach, Peričić can control distance in a way that keeps Sutherland at the end of his punches while Sutherland's shorter 76" arms fall short.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The most realistic danger for Peričić is Sutherland's raw power in the opening minutes. At 264 lbs, Sutherland generates enormous force on his punches — and if he catches Peričić clean in Round 1 before the fight settles into a pattern, the heavyweight equalizer could produce a flash KO. Peričić's 67% striking defense is strong but not impenetrable — and at heavyweight, the shots that land carry fight-ending consequences.
Peričić must travel from New Zealand to London for this fight — approximately 18,000 km across multiple time zones. Jet lag, climate adjustment, and the logistical challenges of international travel can affect performance. Sutherland, fighting at home in London, faces none of these challenges. The hostile O2 Arena crowd adds additional psychological pressure for the visiting fighter.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Peričić should fight his fight — technical, composed, and tactically intelligent. His first priority is to establish the jab behind his 3-inch reach advantage, control distance, and keep Sutherland at the end of punches he cannot return. When Sutherland charges forward, Peričić should counter with clean combinations, uppercuts through Sutherland's forward-leaning entries, and lateral movement that makes Sutherland's power miss. The key is patience: don't brawl with a brawler — use the CKB system.
The CKB gameplan likely includes mixing in clinch work — Peričić's 41% clinch striking rate shows he can damage opponents in close quarters — combined with takedown threats that test Sutherland's already-exposed grappling. If the fight goes to the ground, Peričić should advance position and ground-and-pound, mirroring his Ellison and Kenny finishes, or hunt the RNC if back control presents itself. Sutherland's submission defense is provably poor.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates an interesting dynamic — initially favoring Peričić's reach advantage and movement, allowing him to circle and maintain distance. Sutherland must cut the cage effectively to close inside the 3-inch reach disparity. If Peričić uses the space to jab and circle, Sutherland's power becomes harder to deploy. However, if Sutherland can corner Peričić against the fence, his 264-lb mass advantage becomes meaningful in clinch exchanges. The large cage slightly favors the technically superior fighter who wants to control range.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis — even adjusted for minimal sample sizes (combined 3:19 of UFC cage time) — reveals dramatic divergence. Peričić's 15.13 SLpM, 67% StrDef, and 59% accuracy from his bonus-winning debut contrast sharply with Sutherland's 2.14 SLpM, 0% StrDef, and 84-second submission loss. The multi-positional striking split (38% standing, 41% clinch, 21% ground for Peričić vs 100% standing for Sutherland) confirms Peričić can generate offense from any position while Sutherland has exactly one viable path.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: distance management (Peričić's 3" reach vs Sutherland's pressure), early power exchanges (Sutherland's 264-lb KO potential vs Peričić's 67% StrDef), and grappling transitions (Peričić's CKB-developed wrestling vs Sutherland's exposed submission defense). The CKB training camp differential is the widest factor — Peričić has access to world-class coaching and sparring that Fightzone London cannot replicate.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Peričić by KO/TKO (35% probability), driven by his explosive finishing ability, 67% StrDef, and CKB-designed game plan against a defensively limited brawler. Peričić by Decision (27%) becomes viable if Sutherland's heavyweight durability prevents a stoppage. Sutherland's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (18%) via his 264-lb power connecting clean in the opening exchanges. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Sutherland can land his power before Peričić's technical superior and reach advantage take over.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 35% | Fair: +186
GOOD VALUE
Model: 65% | Both fighters 80%+ KO rate
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 18% | Puncher's chance at HW
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • CKB training camp gap – Market may undervalue the systematic advantage of world-class coaching and sparring partners.
- • Debut quality divergence – Peričić's bonus-winning KO vs Sutherland's 84-second submission loss signals a significant trajectory gap.
- • Heavyweight chaos factor – One punch can change everything at 264 lbs; keeps upset risk at ~18%.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Louie Sutherland
264-lb power connecting clean in early exchanges
Requires sustained forward pressure and cage cutting
Low submission profile; unlikely path to victory
💥Outcome Distribution - Brando Pericic
Explosive finishing ability from CKB system
Technical outpointing if Sutherland absorbs without dropping
Ground control leads to RNC opportunities
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Louie Sutherland
- • First 2–3 minutes: Highest KO equity before pattern establishes.
- • Forward pressure: Close distance inside Peričić's 79" reach.
- • Heavy exchanges: Make fight ugly; avoid technical chess match.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Brando Pericic
- • Range control: Jab behind 79" reach; punish forward entries.
- • Clinch transitions: 41% clinch striking; mix positions.
- • Mid-fight finish: Accumulate damage; find stoppage R2-R3.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via CKB training camp and technical superiority
✅Supporting Factors
- • CKB training camp infrastructure (world-class coaching)
- • Multi-positional striking: 38/41/21% split
- • 3-inch reach advantage (79" vs 76")
- • 67% striking defense vs 0% for Sutherland
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Heavyweight one-punch KO potential (264 lbs)
- • Minimal UFC data for both fighters (3:19 combined)
- • Sutherland's home crowd advantage in London
🏁Executive Summary
Brando Peričić's CKB-developed technical superiority should allow him to control distance behind his 3-inch reach advantage, mix positions through his multi-dimensional 38/41/21% striking split, and progressively dismantle a one-dimensional brawler whose entire career has been defined by early power. The statistical divergence is dramatic: Peričić's 15.13 SLpM, 67% StrDef, and 59% accuracy from his bonus-winning debut contrast sharply with Sutherland's 2.14 SLpM, 0% StrDef, and 84-second submission loss. The CKB training camp differential — training daily alongside Adesanya, Volkanovski, Ulberg, and Hooker under Eugene Bareman — provides an infrastructure gap that Fightzone London cannot replicate. At heavyweight, Sutherland's 264-lb power maintains legitimate upset potential, but the systematic advantages favor Peričić across nearly every measurable dimension.
Prediction: Peričić by KO/TKO most likely (35% probability) through explosive finishing ability and CKB-designed game plan; Sutherland's upset lane is early KO/TKO (18%) via his 264-lb power connecting clean before the technical gap becomes decisive. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Sutherland can land his power before Peričić's reach, defense, and multi-positional offense systematically take over.