Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane
Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Saturday, March 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Iwo Baraniewski
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Austen Lane
13-7-0
Austen Lane
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Iwo Baraniewski
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 06, 2025 | Ibo Aslan | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:29) |
| Sep 16, 2025 | Mahamed Aly | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:20) |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Kamil Stachura | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:02) |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Sylwester Borys | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:01) |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Cemey dos Santos | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:11) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Austen Lane
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2025 | Vitor Petrino | L | SUB (R1, 4:16) |
| Mar 01, 2025 | Mario Pinto | L | KO/TKO (R2, 0:39) |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Robelis Despaigne | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Jhonata Diniz | L | KO/TKO (R2, 2:12) |
| Sep 09, 2023 | Justin Tafa | L | KO/TKO (R1, 1:22) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72 vs 43) and Grappling Composite (23 vs 55). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Iwo Baraniewski Key Advantages
Baraniewski has annihilated every opponent he has faced—7-0 with 7 Round 1 finishes and a 100% finish rate. His closing speed, willingness to commit fully to offense, and ability to generate fight-ending power from multiple ranges (standing, clinch, ground) make him an immediate threat from the opening bell. His 68% striking accuracy against Lane's 40% striking defense creates a formula for early devastation. The KO of previously unbeaten Ibo Aslan in 1:29 at UFC 323 confirmed his power translates to the UFC level.
This is among the most extreme age differentials we've analyzed. Baraniewski at 27 is in his athletic prime— explosive, fast, with reflexes at their peak. Lane at 38 is well past his prime, with declining speed, reaction time, and explosive capacity. In a sport where split-second reactions determine outcomes, this age gap is an enormous advantage. Lane's UFC losses have gotten progressively worse, showing a fighter who is increasingly unable to withstand the pace and power of UFC-level opponents.
Baraniewski's judo credentials (2 career armbars, GAMMA championship medals) represent a devastating matchup against Lane's terrible 33% takedown defense. If Baraniewski closes distance and engages in the clinch, he has the technical ability to execute hip throws, trips, and sweeps that could put Lane on his back—where Lane offers zero submission threat (0.0 sub/15) and Baraniewski has demonstrated finishing from top position with both ground-and-pound and submissions. Lane's low TDDef means any grappling exchange is likely to end with Lane in a position of grave danger.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Baraniewski must close a 7-inch reach gap to land his power shots. If he charges forward recklessly—as his career suggests he might—he walks directly into Lane's longest weapon: the straight right or uppercut at distance. With only 42% striking defense, Baraniewski is vulnerable to getting tagged on the way in, and Lane's heavyweight power could capitalize on that vulnerability with devastating consequences.
Baraniewski has never fought past 3:54 of cage time. If Lane can survive the initial onslaught and push this fight into Rounds 2 and 3, Baraniewski enters completely uncharted territory. His high-output pressure style is energy-expensive, and if Lane doesn't go down early, Baraniewski may find himself exhausted with 10+ minutes still to fight. This is the single biggest risk factor in Baraniewski's profile.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Baraniewski should do exactly what he's done in every professional fight: press forward relentlessly from the opening bell. His gameplan should be simple—close distance explosively, get inside Lane's reach, and fire with everything. Target the body to bring Lane's hands down, then attack the head. Mix in judo throws from the clinch—osoto gari trips, uchi mata throws—to create alternative finishing paths. Baraniewski does NOT want this fight to reach Rounds 2 and 3 where his untested cardio becomes a liability.
If the fight doesn't end on the feet quickly, Baraniewski should immediately transition to clinch work and judo throws. Lane's 33% takedown defense and 0.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes mean any grappling exchange is completely one-directional in Baraniewski's favor. From top position, Baraniewski can unleash ground-and-pound or hunt for armbars—both of which he has demonstrated finishing ability with. The judo aspect gives him multiple paths to victory that pure strikers don't possess.
🚀 Austen Lane Key Advantages
Lane's most significant asset is his physical frame. At 6'6" with an 80" reach, he is one of the longest fighters in the light heavyweight division. If he can establish a jab and use his reach to keep Baraniewski at the end of his punches, he has the ability to point-fight from distance. His natural heavyweight frame—normally fighting at 245 lbs—means he'll carry more muscle mass and raw structural size than Baraniewski even at the same 205-lb limit.
Lane may be limited technically, but he carries genuine fight-ending power. His 85% career KO/TKO win rate reflects explosive force when he connects cleanly. At 205 lbs with a heavyweight frame, his punches carry devastating force—if he can time Baraniewski rushing in with his chin exposed, a single straight right or uppercut could end the fight instantly. Baraniewski's 42% striking defense and aggressive rushing style create the opening for this counter-punch upset scenario.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
This is the most likely scenario. Baraniewski fights at a pace and with an aggression that Lane has simply never encountered. Lane's 40% striking defense means he gets hit by 60% of strikes thrown at him—against Baraniewski's 68% accuracy and terrifying closing speed, Lane will absorb clean power shots at an alarming rate. Lane's UFC losses to Tafa (R1), Diniz (R2), and Pinto (R2) all came via KO.
Lane enters at 38 on back-to-back losses, both finishes. The psychological impact of consecutive stoppage losses— particularly the Petrino submission—cannot be understated. Lane's confidence is at its lowest in his UFC career, and facing an undefeated, explosive young prospect is the worst possible assignment. Fighters on losing streaks often fight tentatively, which against Baraniewski's pressure is a recipe for disaster.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Lane's only realistic path to victory requires using his 7-inch reach advantage to establish a long jab, keep Baraniewski at the end of his punches, and avoid engaging at close range. Lane should circle the octagon, use footwork to maintain distance, and fire straight shots from range where Baraniewski falls short. Body kicks from distance could be effective against Baraniewski's advancing pressure. If Lane can weather the initial R1 storm and push this into later rounds, the calculus shifts.
If Lane is still standing after Round 1, Baraniewski enters completely uncharted territory. Lane should focus entirely on survival in the first 5 minutes—covering up, clinching to slow the pace, and using his frame to smother Baraniewski's offense. If he can push this into Round 2 and beyond, Baraniewski's untested cardio may decline, and Lane's reach and experience in longer fights become significant advantages. Lane's sole UFC win came via decision against Despaigne, proving he can survive.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
This fight features an extreme physical mismatch in opposite directions. Lane's 6'6", 80" reach frame vs Baraniewski's 6'0", 73" reach creates a 7-inch reach gap that Baraniewski must overcome. However, Baraniewski's explosive closing speed and judo clinch game are designed to negate range advantages. Lane's 33% takedown defense means that once Baraniewski gets inside, Lane is in extreme danger. The opening 2-3 minutes will likely determine the entire fight.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The striking comparison is devastatingly one-sided. Baraniewski's 68% accuracy vs Lane's 50%, combined with Lane's 40% striking defense, creates a formula for early damage accumulation. Baraniewski's 14.31 SLpM output with elite accuracy against Lane's 2.74 SLpM with low accuracy means Baraniewski will likely land 2-3x more clean shots. Lane's only statistical edge is his 80" reach, but his 0.0 takedowns per 15 minutes and 0.0 submissions per 15 minutes show he has zero paths to victory on the ground.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Two critical battle areas will determine the outcome: distance closing and Round 1 survival. If Baraniewski can close the 7-inch reach gap and engage at close range—either striking or clinch—his finishing power, judo throws, and aggressive pace should overwhelm Lane's 40% striking defense and 33% takedown defense. Conversely, if Lane can survive the initial blitz and push this into Rounds 2-3, Baraniewski's completely untested cardio becomes the great unknown that could flip this fight.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Iwo Baraniewski by KO/TKO in Round 1 (58% probability), achieved through explosive closing speed, devastating accuracy, and overwhelming power against Lane's porous 40% striking defense. Baraniewski's submission path (12%) via armbar or RNC from judo-created positions adds danger. Lane's primary win path is KO/TKO (16%) through a counter-punch as Baraniewski rushes in. Lane's decision path (8%) requires surviving all three rounds against a fighter who has never gone past 3:54.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 58% | Most likely outcome
GOOD VALUE
Model: 12% | Judo-to-armbar path
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Both finishers, early end likely
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • 100% Round 1 finish rate – Baraniewski has finished every fight in R1; Lane's 40% StrDef is alarming.
- • Massive age/trajectory gap – 27-year-old undefeated prospect vs 38-year-old on 2-fight losing streak.
- • Multi-dimensional finishing ability – Baraniewski can win by KO, submission, or GnP from judo positions.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Iwo Baraniewski
Primary path via explosive R1 blitz and power
Judo throws to armbar or RNC from top position
If fight goes distance, Baraniewski dominates scorecards
💥Outcome Distribution - Austen Lane
Counter-punch KO as Baraniewski rushes in
Survive all 3 rounds and outwork exhausted Baraniewski
Virtually impossible with 0.0 SubAvg
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Austen Lane
- • Survive R1: Weather Baraniewski's explosive opening blitz.
- • Use reach: Establish jab from distance to keep Baraniewski at range.
- • Clinch & smother: Use size to slow Baraniewski's output.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Iwo Baraniewski
- • Explosive R1 blitz: 100% finish rate in Round 1 across 7 fights.
- • Multi-path finishing: KO, judo throws, armbars, and ground-and-pound.
- • Accuracy dominance: 68% vs Lane's 40% striking defense.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High conviction based on skill differential and documented vulnerability
✅Supporting Factors
- • 7-0 with 100% Round 1 finish rate
- • 68% striking accuracy vs Lane's 40% StrDef
- • Judo vs Lane's 33% takedown defense
- • 11-year age advantage (27 vs 38)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • 7-inch reach disadvantage closing distance
- • Completely untested cardio beyond R1
- • Lane's counter-punch power upset potential
🏁Executive Summary
This is one of the most lopsided matchups we've analyzed. Iwo Baraniewski's 7-0 record with 100% Round 1 finishes, 68% striking accuracy, judo credentials, and youth (27) create an overwhelming advantage profile against Austen Lane's 40% striking defense, 33% takedown defense, 38-year-old body, and 2-fight losing streak. The only question is whether Baraniewski's untested cardio and the 7-inch reach gap create enough uncertainty to prevent a confident finish prediction.
Prediction: Baraniewski by KO/TKO in Round 1 (58% probability) through explosive pressure, devastating accuracy, and overwhelming power. His submission path (12%) via judo throws adds danger. Lane's only realistic path is a counter-punch KO (16%) as Baraniewski rushes in recklessly. If this fight reaches Round 2, it enters uncharted territory for Baraniewski's untested cardio.