Michael Page vs Sam Patterson
Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Saturday, March 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Michael Page
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Sam Patterson
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Michael Page
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | Jared Cannonier | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Feb 01, 2025 | Shara Magomedov | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Ian Machado Garry | L | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Mar 09, 2024 | Kevin Holland | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Mar 10, 2023 | Goiti Yamauchi | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:26) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Sam Patterson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 06, 2025 | Trey Waters | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:01) |
| Mar 01, 2025 | Danny Barlow | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:10) |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Kiefer Crosbie | W | SUB (R1, 2:50) |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Yohan Lainesse | W | SUB (R1, 2:03) |
| Mar 18, 2023 | Yanal Ashmouz | L | KO/TKO (R1, 1:15) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72 vs 43) and Grappling Composite (23 vs 55). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Michael Page Key Advantages
Page's 60% striking accuracy dominates Patterson's 43%, creating a massive efficiency gap. MVP's karate-based style with switch stances, flashy kicks, and surgical counter-punching allows him to land clean shots while avoiding return fire. His 2.39 SLpM may look low on paper, but that's by design—Page fights a low-output, high-accuracy game that frustrates opponents who can't find him. Patterson will need to force a pace Page doesn't want, which plays into MVP's counter-striking strengths.
Page absorbs just 1.68 strikes per minute compared to Patterson's 3.93—a 2.25 SApM differential that creates a massive damage economy advantage. MVP's elusive movement, distance management, and unorthodox stances make him incredibly difficult to hit cleanly. Over three rounds, Patterson is likely to accumulate significantly more damage while Page remains fresh and unmarked. This disparity in damage absorption directly influences how judges score close rounds, and Page's clean appearance on the scorecards is a proven advantage.
Page's 66% takedown defense dwarfs Patterson's 33%, meaning MVP can reliably keep the fight standing where he holds every statistical advantage. While Patterson has shown improved wrestling in his recent UFC run, Page's long frame, hip movement, and ability to shrug off takedown attempts make it difficult for opponents to get him down. When combined with Page's 1-inch reach advantage, Patterson will struggle to close the distance for clinch entries and wrestling exchanges without eating counters on the way in.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Patterson's 3.89 SLpM output combined with his 100% takedown accuracy makes pressure fighting his biggest threat. If Patterson can get inside Page's range and force clinch exchanges, he nullifies MVP's distance weapons. Patterson's 2.78 submissions per 15 minutes is among the highest in the division, meaning any clinch scramble carries submission risk for Page whose 0.00 sub rate shows he has no submission offense to threaten back.
At 38, Page is one of the older fighters on the roster, and his chin has shown vulnerabilities—he was KO'd in his Bellator career and has already taken damage in UFC bouts that showed his defensive limitations. Patterson at just 29 carries significant power and athleticism advantages that could expose Page's declining physical attributes. If Patterson lands clean early, Page could wilt under sustained pressure in a way younger versions of himself wouldn't have.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Page should focus on maintaining his preferred long range using his 79-inch reach to keep Patterson at distance. His karate-based counter-striking is most effective when opponents come forward—exactly what Patterson does. MVP should look to land single shots and move—jabs, straight lefts, and front kicks to the body—frustrating Patterson into overcommitting. By staying mobile and resetting after each exchange, Page can accumulate clean strikes while avoiding Patterson's power Zone.
Fighting at the O2 Arena in London, Page will have a massive home crowd advantage. He should use this energy to set the pace early and showcase his showmanship—the taunts, the movement, the dancing—which can frustrate opponents into making reckless decisions. Patterson is also English, but Page is the established star and fan favorite. By controlling the tempo and putting on a show, Page can influence judges and force Patterson into a desperate pace that favors MVP's counter-style.
🚀 Sam Patterson Key Advantages
Patterson's 3.89 SLpM output is significantly higher than Page's 2.39, creating constant pressure that can overwhelm precision fighters. His aggressive pace forces exchanges at a rhythm Page doesn't want—up close and sustained. When Patterson gets into a groove, he can string together combinations that rack up significant strikes and force his opponent against the cage. His 100% takedown accuracy adds another dimension, as Page must respect the wrestling threat while dealing with striking volume, creating a multi-layered pressure game.
Patterson's 2.78 submissions per 15 minutes is a massive weapon that Page has no answer for. With a 0.00 SubAvg, Page has shown zero submission offense in his UFC career, meaning any grappling exchange is one-directional. Patterson's ability to threaten submissions from clinch positions, scrambles, and top control creates a constant danger that forces Page to fight conservatively on the ground. If Patterson can drag the fight into grappling exchanges, he has a clear path to a finish that Page simply cannot replicate.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Page's 60% striking accuracy is devastating for pressure fighters like Patterson—every time Patterson charges in, he gets timed with clean counters. MVP's karate-based movement creates awkward angles that Patterson hasn't faced in his career. If Page establishes his range early and starts landing flush counters, Patterson could become gun-shy about pressing forward, taking away his primary path to victory and leaving him stuck at distance where Page is most comfortable.
If Page fights his typical low-output game (2.39 SLpM), Patterson could simply outwork him on the scorecards through sheer volume. Patterson's 3.89 SLpM creates round-winning volume that judges reward, and if Page becomes too passive or point-fights without landing enough clean shots, Patterson's pressure-heavy approach gives him the edge in close rounds. Page's style can look inactive in UFC judging criteria, where octagon control and aggression become tiebreakers.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Patterson's best strategy is relentless forward pressure to close Page's preferred range. By cutting off the cage and forcing clinch exchanges, Patterson can negate Page's distance weapons. He should mix level changes with striking pressure—threatening takedowns to get Page thinking low, then landing overhand rights and hooks up top. Patterson's 100% takedown accuracy means even the threat of a shot forces Page to adjust his stance, creating openings in his defensive shell.
Patterson should invest early in body shots and calf kicks to slow Page's movement and reduce his ability to stick-and-move. Page's effectiveness depends on his footwork and ability to create angles—if Patterson can compromise his mobility through leg attacks, MVP's counter-striking becomes less dangerous. Body work also accumulates damage that pays off in later rounds, particularly against a 38-year-old fighter whose cardio and recovery may not be what it once was.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
This fight at the O2 Arena creates an interesting dynamic for both English fighters. Page, with a massive 79-inch reach and karate-based style, prefers to fight at distance where his 60% striking accuracy can pick apart opponents. Patterson needs to close distance quickly and force clinch exchanges where his 100% takedown accuracy and 2.78 submissions per 15 minutes become relevant. The venue atmosphere should favor Page as the bigger name, adding crowd energy to his already entertaining style.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The striking accuracy gap is the defining statistical separator in this fight. Page's 60% accuracy vs Patterson's 43% means MVP lands clean at a significantly higher rate while absorbing far less damage (1.68 vs 3.93 SApM). Patterson's volume edge (3.89 vs 2.39 SLpM) can win rounds if he pushes forward consistently, but his lower accuracy means many of those strikes won't land clean. The key battle area is whether Patterson can close distance and force clinch exchanges where his 2.78 submissions per 15 minutes and 100% takedown accuracy become operational.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Two critical battle areas will determine the outcome: distance management and grappling transitions. Page's karate-based movement and 79-inch reach create a considerable striking range advantage, but Patterson's ability to close distance and threaten takedowns adds complexity. Patterson's 33% takedown defense is a major vulnerability if Page decides to mix in wrestling, but Page's 0.00 SubAvg suggests he won't seek grappling exchanges. The fight likely comes down to whether Patterson can establish consistent pressure before Page's counter- striking frustrates him into overcommitting.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Michael Page by Decision (35% probability), achieved through superior striking accuracy, counter-punching, and damage economy over three rounds. Page's KO/TKO path (15%) becomes viable if his counter shots catch Patterson charging in recklessly. Patterson's primary win path is KO/TKO (20%) through volume pressure and closing the distance, with a submission path (12%) if he can drag Page into grappling exchanges. Patterson's decision path (8%) requires sustained pressure and volume to outwork Page on the scorecards.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 35% | Most likely outcome
GOOD VALUE
Model: 20% | Pressure-based KO path
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 70% | Both fighters durable enough
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues striking accuracy gap – 60% vs 43% creates massive efficiency differential.
- • Age perception bias – Page's 38 is offset by low-damage style and experience.
- • Home crowd factor – London venue gives Page a psychological edge in close rounds.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Michael Page
Primary path via counter-striking and distance control
Counter KO when Patterson overcommits
Unlikely given 0.00 SubAvg
💥Outcome Distribution - Sam Patterson
Primary win path via volume and pressure
2.78 SubAvg creates real threat on ground
Needs sustained volume to outwork Page
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Sam Patterson
- • Early pressure: Close distance before Page reads timing.
- • Clinch entries: Force dirty boxing and wrestling exchanges.
- • Body work: Invest in body shots to slow Page's movement.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Michael Page
- • Counter-timing: Accuracy compounds as Page reads Patterson's entries.
- • Damage economy: 1.68 SApM keeps Page fresh across three rounds.
- • Showmanship: Crowd engagement and taunts can influence judges.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate edge via striking accuracy and experience
✅Supporting Factors
- • 60% striking accuracy vs 43% creates efficiency gap
- • 1.68 SApM damage economy vs Patterson's 3.93
- • 66% takedown defense keeps fight standing
- • Home crowd advantage at O2 Arena, London
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Patterson's 3.89 SLpM volume in close range
- • Age factor: Page is 38 with chin vulnerabilities
- • 2.78 SubAvg submission threat in grappling
🏁Executive Summary
Michael Page's karate-based counter-striking and superior damage economy create a solid foundation for victory against Sam Patterson's volume-heavy pressure style. The statistical differentials favor Page: his 60% striking accuracy vs Patterson's 43% creates an efficiency gap, while his 1.68 SApM vs Patterson's 3.93 means he absorbs far less damage. Page's 66% takedown defense should keep the fight standing where he holds the biggest advantages, while Patterson's 33% TDDef is a vulnerability that Page could exploit if he chose to wrestle. The home crowd at the O2 Arena provides additional psychological momentum for MVP.
Prediction: Page by Decision most likely (35% probability) through superior striking accuracy, counter-punching, and damage economy. Patterson's best path is KO/TKO (20%) through sustained pressure and volume, with a secondary submission path (12%) if he can drag Page into grappling exchanges. The fight hinges on whether Patterson can close distance consistently before Page's timing and accuracy take over.