Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Saturday, March 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Roman Dolidze
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Christian Leroy Duncan
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Roman Dolidze
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2025 | Anthony Hernandez | L | SUB (Rear Naked Choke) (R4, 2:45) |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Marvin Vettori | W | U-DEC (R5, 5:00) |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Kevin Holland | W | KO/TKO (Rib Injury) (R1, 5:00) |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Anthony Smith | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Nassourdine Imavov | L | M-DEC (R5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Christian Leroy Duncan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Marco Tulio | W | KO/TKO (Spinning Backfist) (R2, 3:28) |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Eryk Anders | W | KO/TKO (Spinning Back Elbow) (R1, 3:53) |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Andrey Pulyaev | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Gregory Rodrigues | L | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Claudio Ribeiro | W | KO/TKO (Ground & Pound) (R2, 1:57) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Roman Dolidze Key Advantages
Dolidze carries significant one-punch power with 8 of his 15 career wins coming via KO/TKO. His heavy hands make him a dangerous opponent at any point during the fight, and his ability to land fight-changing shots means Duncan cannot afford to be reckless. If Dolidze catches Duncan coming in with a well-timed counter or lands cleanly in the clinch, he has the power to end the fight immediately. His Georgian wrestling background also gives him the physical strength to create damage in scrambles and dirty boxing exchanges.
Dolidze has 11 UFC fights under his belt compared to Duncan's 8, and has faced higher-caliber opposition including Marvin Vettori, Nassourdine Imavov, and Anthony Smith. He's comfortable going 5 rounds against elite competition and his average fight duration of 12:48 demonstrates he can sustain output deep into fights. His experience in high-pressure situations means he's unlikely to panic if Duncan starts landing combinations, giving him the composure to weather early storms and find his moments in the later rounds.
Dolidze's Georgian wrestling background gives him a significant advantage in clinch exchanges and dirty boxing. While his overall takedown numbers are poor (0.99 per 15 min, 39% accuracy), his ability to engage in close-range grappling and control his opponent against the fence can neutralize Duncan's striking advantage. In the clinch, Dolidze can negate Duncan's reach advantage and land short hooks, uppercuts, and knees that don't require the same precision as his long-range striking. If he can close the distance and fight in the phone booth, it levels the playing field considerably.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Duncan's 4.60 SLpM versus Dolidze's 3.41 creates a significant striking output gap. Duncan lands 35% more strikes per minute with 58% accuracy compared to Dolidze's 41%. In a fight that stays at range, Dolidze will be heavily out-volumed and Duncan's creative striking arsenal — spinning back elbows, backfists, and flashy combinations — will make it nearly impossible for Dolidze to win rounds on the scorecards if the fight stays standing.
Dolidze's 26% takedown defense is alarmingly low and suggests fundamental defensive wrestling issues. While his wrestling offense (0.99 TD per 15 min) is already weak, Duncan's 69% takedown defense means Dolidze's attempts to grapple will likely be stuffed. This creates a scenario where Dolidze cannot take the fight to the ground effectively but is also vulnerable to being taken down himself. The large cage further exacerbates this problem by giving Duncan more space to circle away from clinch attempts.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Dolidze needs to close the distance early and force the fight into clinch range where his physical strength and dirty boxing can neutralize Duncan's striking advantages. His Georgian wrestling background gives him the tools to work from the fence, using underhooks and body locks to control position while landing short strikes. The key is to not let Duncan establish range and rhythm — by applying relentless forward pressure and cutting off the cage, Dolidze can prevent Duncan from utilizing his creative striking arsenal.
Rather than trying to match Duncan's sustained striking volume, Dolidze should fight in explosive bursts — closing the distance with power shots, engaging in the clinch, and then resetting. His 3.41 SLpM is significantly lower than Duncan's 4.60, so he needs to make each exchange count rather than engaging in extended combinations. By timing his entries with heavy hooks and uppercuts, Dolidze can capitalize on his power advantage while minimizing the time he spends at Duncan's preferred striking range where he's at a significant disadvantage.
🚀 Christian Leroy Duncan Key Advantages
Duncan's 4.60 SLpM with 58% accuracy versus Dolidze's 3.41 SLpM at 41% accuracy creates a massive striking advantage. Duncan lands 35% more strikes per minute with significantly better precision. His creative Muay Thai-based arsenal includes spinning back elbows, spinning backfists, and multi-level combinations that are difficult to predict and defend. This striking differential means Duncan should dominate any rounds fought at range, and his ability to string together 3-4 strike combinations keeps judges scoring in his favor consistently.
Duncan's 79-inch reach versus Dolidze's 76-inch reach provides a 3-inch advantage that allows him to strike from a distance where Dolidze cannot effectively counter. In the 30-foot octagon, Duncan has ample space to circle, maintain his preferred range, and use his jab and long kicks to control distance. His 44-inch leg reach (vs Dolidze's 43") also gives him an advantage with kicks to the body and legs. This reach differential combined with Duncan's superior accuracy means he can consistently land clean shots while staying just outside Dolidze's effective range.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Dolidze successfully closes the distance and turns this into a clinch-heavy contest, Duncan's striking advantages are largely neutralized. Dolidze's Georgian wrestling background and physical strength make him dangerous in close quarters, and Duncan's 69% takedown defense, while decent, may not hold up against sustained clinch pressure. Duncan's best work happens at range with his creative combinations — take that away and he becomes a much less effective fighter.
While Duncan has strong striking volume and accuracy, his power output is less impressive than Dolidze's. With only 4 KO/TKO wins in 13 career victories (31%), Duncan relies more on volume and accumulation than single-shot stopping power. This means even when he's winning rounds on the scorecards, he may not be hurting Dolidze enough to prevent the Georgian from walking through shots and forcing the clinch. Dolidze's 53% KO rate represents a constant threat that Duncan must respect throughout the fight.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Duncan's primary strategy should be using his 3-inch reach advantage and superior footwork to maintain distance and prevent Dolidze from engaging in the clinch. His jab, long kicks to the body, and lateral movement in the 30-foot octagon give him the tools to fight from the outside where his 4.60 SLpM and 58% accuracy advantages are maximized. When Dolidze pressures forward, Duncan should circle and counter rather than trading in the pocket where Dolidze's power becomes a factor.
Duncan should invest early in body shots and leg kicks to slow Dolidze's forward pressure over three rounds. At 37, Dolidze's cardio and recovery are declining, and sustained body work can sap his ability to push forward aggressively. Duncan's creative striking arsenal — spinning attacks, knees up the middle, and level-changing combinations — can target multiple areas and make Dolidze hesitant to commit to closing the distance. By establishing body work early, Duncan can make Dolidze pay a cumulative price for every advancement, eventually slowing the Georgian's pressure enough to dominate the later rounds on the scorecards.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon heavily favors Duncan in this matchup. The larger cage provides ample space for Duncan to circle, maintain his preferred striking range, and utilize his 3-inch reach advantage. Dolidze needs to close distance to be effective, and the extra space makes this significantly harder. Duncan's lateral movement and ability to reset after exchanges means Dolidze will need to commit to longer entries to close the gap — entries that expose him to Duncan's counters and creative spinning techniques. The cage size compounds Dolidze's existing problems with distance management and striking accuracy.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a deeply asymmetric fight favoring Duncan in standing exchanges. Duncan holds decisive advantages in volume (4.60 vs 3.41 SLpM — 35% higher), accuracy (58% vs 41% — a massive 17-point gap), and damage mitigation (2.97 vs 3.72 SApM). When combined with Duncan's higher knockdown rate (0.45 vs 0.36) and 3-inch reach advantage, the on-feet striking matchup overwhelmingly favors Duncan. Dolidze's theoretical grappling path is hampered by poor offensive wrestling — 0.99 TD per 15 min at 39% accuracy against Duncan's solid 69% takedown defense.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical areas determine the outcome: distance management in the large cage, Dolidze's ability to close and clinch, and early-round power equity. Duncan's reach and footwork should control the first two battlefields, while Dolidze's knockout power creates a persistent first-round threat. Duncan's 83% UFC KO rate and creative spinning arsenal directly target Dolidze's 48% striking defense — the same vulnerability that led to his recent losses. If Duncan can survive any early power shots, his superior conditioning and output should dominate the later rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Christian Leroy Duncan by KO/TKO (40% probability), achieved through his superior striking volume, accuracy, and creative unorthodox arsenal against Dolidze's vulnerable 48% striking defense. Duncan's decision path (20%) provides a secondary win condition through consistent outpointing over three rounds. Dolidze's primary upset lane is an early KO/TKO (16%) via well-timed power shots in the first round, with his decision path (14%) requiring him to make every round ugly and win through pressure and aggression. The age gap (37 vs 30) and Duncan's rising trajectory versus Dolidze's decline make this a classic rising contender vs fading veteran matchup.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 40% | Fair: +150
GOOD VALUE
Model: 20% | Fair: +400
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 16% | Fair: +525
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Duncan's striking superiority – Decisive edges in volume, accuracy, and damage mitigation project comfortable rounds on the scorecards.
- • Dolidze's age-related decline – At 37 with recent losses, Dolidze's best days are behind him while Duncan is in his prime at 30.
- • Large cage advantage – The 30-foot octagon heavily favors Duncan's reach and movement style.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Roman Dolidze
First-round power via timed counters and clinch
Pressure and aggression to win ugly rounds
Low probability — limited grappling opportunities
💥Outcome Distribution - Christian Leroy Duncan
Primary path via creative striking and spinning attacks
Striking volume and accuracy outpoint Dolidze over 3 rounds
Marginal path via scrambles and front headlock
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Roman Dolidze
- • First 5 minutes: Highest KO equity via timed power shots.
- • Clinch engagement: Close distance and dirty box to neutralize reach.
- • Front-load damage: Dolidze must hurt Duncan before cardio fades.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Christian Leroy Duncan
- • Range control: Jab and movement to neutralize Dolidze's power.
- • Body investment: Slow Dolidze's forward pressure over 3 rounds.
- • Late rounds: Volume and accuracy should dominate the aging Dolidze.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Duncan's striking advantages are clear but Dolidze's power creates volatility
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior striking volume (4.60 vs 3.41 SLpM)
- • Massive accuracy gap (58% vs 41%)
- • 3-inch reach advantage in large cage
- • Age and conditioning favor Duncan (30 vs 37)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Dolidze's one-punch KO power in early rounds
- • Clinch threat could neutralize Duncan's range
- • Dolidze's veteran fight IQ and experience
🏁Executive Summary
Christian Leroy Duncan's striking superiority should be the defining factor in this matchup against Roman Dolidze. Duncan holds decisive advantages in volume (4.60 vs 3.41 SLpM), accuracy (58% vs 41%), and damage mitigation (2.97 vs 3.72 SApM). The 30-foot octagon amplifies these advantages by providing space for Duncan's movement and 3-inch reach advantage. Dolidze's theoretical grappling path is hampered by poor offensive wrestling (0.99 TD per 15 min at 39% accuracy) against Duncan's solid 69% takedown defense. The age gap (37 vs 30) further compounds Dolidze's challenges, with his recent 3-fight losing streak suggesting decline while Duncan is entering his prime.
Prediction: Duncan by KO/TKO most likely (40% probability) through superior striking volume, accuracy, and creative spinning arsenal against Dolidze's vulnerable 48% striking defense. Dolidze's upset lane is an early KO/TKO (16%) via timed power shots in the opening round. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Dolidze can close distance and land fight-changing power before Duncan's volume and conditioning advantages become decisive.