Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy
Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Saturday, March 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage) • The O2, London
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Movsar Evloev
19-0-0
Movsar Evloev
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Lerone Murphy
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Movsar Evloev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | Aljamain Sterling | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Arnold Allen | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| May 6, 2023 | Diego Lopes | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Jun 4, 2022 | Dan Ige | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Jun 12, 2021 | Hakeem Dawodu | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Lerone Murphy
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | Aaron Pico | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:21) |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Josh Emmett | W | U-DEC (R5, 5:00) |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Dan Ige | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| May 18, 2024 | Edson Barboza | W | U-DEC (R5, 5:00) |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Josh Culibao | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Movsar Evloev Key Advantages
Evloev's 4.67 takedowns per 15 minutes vs Murphy's 1.41 represents a 3.3x differential that fundamentally tilts this fight. His chain-wrestling sequences—knee-tap entries into outside singles, body-lock finishes, and relentless cage pressure—create minute-winning cycles that accumulate massive control time. Murphy's 51% takedown defense is the critical vulnerability here; Evloev's 48% takedown accuracy combined with his volume means he only needs one of every two shots to land, and the sheer volume ensures multiple completions per round. This wrestling monopoly becomes the primary scoring mechanism over five rounds.
Evloev absorbs only 2.66 strikes per minute compared to Murphy's 2.51—nearly identical absorption rates, but Evloev's 61% striking defense and wrestling threat mean he controls where the fight takes place. By dragging Murphy into grappling exchanges, Evloev neutralizes the Englishman's superior striking output (4.48 SLpM vs 3.99). This damage economy becomes critical in championship rounds—Evloev maintains his pace through grappling control rather than standing exchanges, minimizing the risk of accumulating damage while maximizing scoring opportunities through control time and ground-and-pound sequences.
Evloev's 15:00 average fight duration with 74% of wins occurring in Round 3 (decisions) demonstrates exceptional cardiovascular conditioning and strategic pacing. The championship rounds (4 and 5) are where his wrestling pressure becomes most devastating—Murphy has shown the ability to go five rounds (vs Emmett, Barboza), but defending relentless takedown attempts while trying to maintain his striking output is a different challenge entirely. Evloev's cardio score of 82 vs Murphy's 78 reflects this edge, and his ability to maintain wrestling pace in later rounds has been a consistent feature of his career. The 5-round format amplifies every structural advantage Evloev holds.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Murphy's 73-inch reach (vs Evloev's 72") and 5'9" height advantage allow him to maintain distance while threatening sharp counters. His 54% striking accuracy and 4.48 SLpM volume become dangerous if Evloev cannot close distance effectively. Murphy's kickboxing toolkit—jabs, front kicks, calf kicks—can disrupt Evloev's entries and potentially score damaging shots as the Russian commits to level changes. If Murphy can time intercept strikes during Evloev's takedown entries, he could shift the momentum significantly.
Murphy has 8 KO/TKO wins in his career (47% finish rate) and legitimate one-punch knockout power. His recent finish of Aaron Pico in Round 1 demonstrates his ability to end fights explosively. Evloev's 61% striking defense is solid but not elite, and if Murphy can establish his jab, set up combinations, and punish Evloev during striking exchanges—particularly in the early rounds before the wrestling pressure builds—he carries genuine fight-ending power. The London crowd will fuel Murphy's intensity, and an early surge could create a stoppage opportunity.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Evloev should utilize his jab and body shots to force Murphy into a high guard, creating openings for level changes. His 48% striking accuracy combined with a 4.67 TD15 means he can seamlessly blend strikes into takedown entries. By keeping Murphy guessing between punches and shots, Evloev prevents the Englishman from settling into his preferred kickboxing rhythm. Chain wrestling at the fence—re-shots after initial defense, body-lock attempts, and mat returns—should be the primary scoring mechanism.
Once Evloev secures takedowns, his priority should be establishing dominant positions and accumulating control time with active ground-and-pound. His wrestling background emphasizes mat returns, heavy top pressure, and short strikes rather than submission hunting (only 0.22 Sub/15min). This approach maximizes scoring while minimizing risk—Evloev should focus on riding Murphy, preventing stand-ups, and landing enough strikes to keep the position active. The 5-round format means he can afford patient, systematic wrestling rather than forcing flashy finishes.
🚀 Lerone Murphy Key Advantages
Murphy's 4.48 SLpM and 54% striking accuracy represent a significant edge over Evloev's 3.99 SLpM and 48% accuracy. When the fight stays standing, Murphy's kickboxing is elite—his ability to mix jabs, hooks, body shots, and calf kicks from both stances makes him extremely difficult to predict. The Englishman's 62% striking defense (slightly higher than Evloev's 61%) means he can sustain offensive output without absorbing excessive damage in return. In the O2 Arena, the crowd energy will fuel Murphy's pace and aggression, making him an even more dangerous striker in the early rounds.
With 8 KO/TKO victories in 17 wins, Murphy carries legitimate fight-ending power that Evloev cannot ignore. His recent Round 1 TKO of Aaron Pico demonstrates his ability to capitalize on openings with devastating precision. Murphy's 47% finish rate vs Evloev's 37% means he's more capable of ending the fight early, which could bypass Evloev's primary advantage (grinding decisions over 5 rounds). Every exchange on the feet carries genuine danger, and Murphy's knockout threat forces Evloev to respect the striking and potentially alter his takedown timing—a dynamic that could create openings for Murphy's counters.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Murphy's 51% takedown defense is the critical statistical vulnerability in this matchup. Against Evloev's 4.67 TD15, even a 50% success rate means Murphy will be taken down multiple times per round. Once on the mat, Murphy has shown limited ability to return to his feet quickly or threaten from bottom position (0 submission wins in his career). Evloev's persistent pressure and riding ability could dominate rounds through control time alone, creating a scoring nightmare for Murphy on the judges' cards.
While Murphy has gone five rounds successfully (vs Emmett, Barboza), those fights were primarily striking contests. A five-round fight against Evloev's relentless wrestling pressure is a fundamentally different cardio challenge— defending takedowns, fighting from bottom, and trying to scramble back to the feet drains energy at an accelerated rate. Murphy's 78 cardio score vs Evloev's 82 suggests he'll struggle to maintain his striking output as the championship rounds approach, creating a progressive disadvantage that compounds with each takedown defense.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Murphy's optimal strategy involves establishing his jab early, utilizing his 73-inch reach to keep Evloev at the end of his punches. Calf kicks and front kicks to the body should target Evloev's mobility and wrestling base, making his entries more labored. Murphy needs to frontload damage in rounds 1-3 when he's freshest and before Evloev's wrestling pressure fully establishes. The home crowd at The O2 will amplify Murphy's energy, and capitalizing on early momentum could force Evloev into a more cautious approach.
Murphy must prioritize cage awareness and maintain center position to avoid being pinned against the fence where Evloev's chain wrestling is most effective. Quick scrambles, underhooks when pressured, and immediate hip escape attempts on takedowns are essential. Murphy should also threaten intercept knees and uppercuts as Evloev levels changes—punishing takedown entries could discourage the Russian and open striking opportunities. If taken down, Murphy needs to focus on wall-walking and getting back to his feet rather than fighting from bottom position.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Venue & Cage Dynamics
The O2 Arena in London creates an electric atmosphere that will heavily favor Murphy as the hometown fighter. The 30-foot octagon provides space for Murphy's kickboxing but also gives Evloev room to establish his pressure game. The larger cage initially benefits Murphy's circling and distance management, but Evloev's relentless cage-cutting and chain wrestling gradually compress the available space. The crowd factor is real—Murphy feeds off home energy and could come out with explosive intent in the early rounds, but the noise can also mask the steady, grinding work that Evloev excels at over 25 minutes.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields: wrestling activity and striking efficiency. Evloev's 4.67 TD15 vs Murphy's 1.41 represents a 3.3x differential that fundamentally alters fight control and scoring. While Murphy's striking (4.48 SLpM, 54% accuracy) creates impressive volume and damage potential, Evloev's wrestling threat forces Murphy into uncomfortable exchanges where his kickboxing rhythm gets disrupted. Murphy's 51% TDD is the critical statistical weakness—against Evloev's 48% TD accuracy and relentless volume, multiple completions per round are likely. This creates a scoring framework where Evloev's control time and positional dominance consistently outweigh Murphy's striking output in judges' eyes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: Murphy's takedown defense vs Evloev's chain wrestling, Murphy's early striking damage vs Evloev's defensive wrestling, and championship round durability. Murphy's 51% TDD is the most important stat in this fight—if Evloev can consistently land takedowns, the fight becomes one-sided. Murphy's best path is frontloading damage in rounds 1-2 before the wrestling pressure builds. His 8 career KO/TKOs give him genuine knockout equity, but Evloev's 61% striking defense and ability to absorb shots while closing distance makes clean finishes difficult. The 5-round format structurally favors Evloev's grinding, accumulative style.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Movsar Evloev by Decision (40% probability), achieved through consistent takedown pressure, control time accumulation, and systematic wrestling over five rounds. Evloev's KO/TKO path (12%) becomes viable if his ground-and-pound accumulates damage in later rounds when Murphy tires from defending takedowns. Murphy's upset path centers on early KO/TKO (22%) via his 54% accurate striking and genuine knockout power before Evloev's pressure takes hold. Murphy's decision path (12%) requires maintaining striking range throughout five rounds and stuffing enough takedowns to win rounds on the feet—a scenario that becomes less likely as Evloev's wrestling pressure compounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 22% | Fair: +355
GOOD VALUE
Model: 46% | Fair: +117
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 12% | Fair: +733
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights home advantage – Murphy's crowd support doesn't negate wrestling differential.
- • Undervalues TDD weakness – Murphy's 51% TDD is exploitable against elite wrestlers.
- • 5-round format bias – Championship rounds structurally favor the wrestler.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Movsar Evloev
Primary path via wrestling pressure and control time
Late-round GNP after wrestling fatigue
RNC opportunities off back control
💥Outcome Distribution - Lerone Murphy
Best lane via KO power and early surges
Requires sustained striking dominance
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Lerone Murphy
- • First 7–10 minutes: Highest KO equity for Murphy via striking.
- • Range control: Jab + calf kicks to disrupt entries.
- • Cage center: Avoid fence; stay mobile and maintain distance.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Movsar Evloev
- • Chain shots: Re-mats and rides bank control and sap pace.
- • Damage economy: Keep exchanges short; minimize risk.
- • Late minutes: Safer control edges decision likelihood.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via wrestling dominance and 5-round format
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant takedown volume edge (4.67 vs 1.41 TD15)
- • Murphy's 51% TDD is critical weakness
- • 5-round format amplifies wrestling advantage
- • Superior cardio score (82 vs 78)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Murphy's 54% striking accuracy and KO power
- • Home crowd advantage at O2 Arena in London
- • Murphy's early-round explosiveness
🏁Executive Summary
Movsar Evloev's systematic approach to fight control should steadily compress the 30-foot octagon space and bank safe minutes through chain-wrestling sequences, while Lerone Murphy's best equity centers on early intercept strikes and range weapons before the Russian's pressure takes hold. The statistical differentials heavily favor Evloev: his 4.67 TD15 vs Murphy's 1.41 creates a 3.3x takedown volume advantage, while his 2.66 SApM vs Murphy's 2.51 represents comparable damage economy but superior positional control. Evloev's 15:00 average fight duration with 63% of wins by Decision demonstrates exceptional cardio management, while Murphy's 13:47 duration suggests capability in long fights, but against a wrestler of this caliber the gas tank tax is higher. The Russian's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially in championship rounds where damage accumulation becomes visually apparent.
Prediction: Evloev by Decision most likely (40% probability) through consistent takedown pressure and control time accumulation; Murphy's upset lane is early KO/TKO (22%) via intercept knees or uppercuts as Evloev commits to shots. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Murphy can capitalize on his early range advantages before Evloev's wrestling pressure and superior cardio become decisive factors.