Piera Rodriguez vs Sam Hughes
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Saturday, March 14, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Piera Rodriguez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Sam Hughes
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Piera Rodriguez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2025 | Ketlen Souza | W | Decision (Split) (3, 5:00) |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Josefine Knutsson | W | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| May 18, 2024 | Ariane Carnelossi | L | DQ (Intentional Headbutts) (2, 3:16) |
| Apr 15, 2023 | Gillian Robertson | L | Submission (Armbar) (2, 4:21) |
| Oct 15, 2022 | Sam Hughes | W | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Sam Hughes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2025 | Shauna Bannon | W | Submission (RNC) (2, 1:58) |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Stephanie Luciano | W | Decision (Split) (3, 5:00) |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Victoria Dudakova | W | Decision (Split) (3, 5:00) |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Yazmin Jauregui | L | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Jaqueline Amorim | W | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62.0 vs 55.0) and Grappling Composite (70.0 vs 42.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Piera Rodriguez Key Advantages
Rodriguez attempts and lands takedowns at an elite rate for women's strawweight, and her 54% accuracy means more than half her shots connect. Against Hughes, who defends only 60% of takedown attempts, the math is clear: Rodriguez will successfully take this fight to the mat multiple times across 15 minutes. In their first fight, she went 5-for-5 on takedown attempts while Hughes managed zero. The takedown differential is the foundation upon which Rodriguez builds her wins — it secures positional control, earns scorecards points, and drains the bottom fighter's energy. In the small cage, Rodriguez can use the fence to assist her takedowns, making this advantage even more pronounced.
While Hughes throws more volume, Rodriguez lands more efficiently relative to what she absorbs. Her +0.73 significant strike differential per minute tells us she's consistently outlanding opponents across fights, while Hughes' -0.10 differential tells us she's essentially trading evenly — or slightly losing — the striking battle in an average fight. Over 15 minutes, Rodriguez's efficiency advantage translates to approximately 11 more net significant strikes landed. That margin creates scorecards separation and damage accumulation that goes in Rodriguez's favor round by round. Rodriguez absorbs only 2.81 SApM compared to Hughes' 4.44 — a 37% reduction in damage taken.
Rodriguez generates nearly a third of her significant strikes from the clinch — 2.9 times the rate of Hughes (10%). In the 25-foot cage at the UFC Apex, clinch exchanges happen more frequently as fighters compress into fence work. Rodriguez's ability to generate scoring offense from dirty boxing, elbows, and knees in the clinch is a weapon that doubles as a transition point into her takedowns: she holds, she scores, she drags fights to the ground. Hughes is primarily a distance fighter (76% standing strikes) — when Rodriguez closes distance and puts Hughes against the fence, she neutralizes Hughes' preferred range entirely.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Rodriguez was submitted by Gillian Robertson via armbar in R2 — proving she can be finished on the mat by a skilled grappler. Her 0.0 submission rate means she's not attacking submissions from top position, holding position without threatening finishes. If she takes Hughes down and the scramble goes wrong, Hughes — with 4 career submission wins including a recent RNC — could capitalize. Rodriguez's grappling is about control, not danger, and Hughes' improved submission game introduces a new risk dimension that didn't exist in 2022.
Rodriguez's two most recent UFC wins were by split and unanimous decision. Her inability to finish fights at the UFC level (0 UFC finishes in 6 bouts) means every fight goes to the scorecards, and split decisions can go either way. Against a fighter on a 3-fight winning streak with momentum, a razor-thin decision carries inherent variance risk. Hughes specializes in fighting close, competitive rounds — this fight could easily be a 29-28 decision either way.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Rodriguez should implement the same blueprint that earned her the first-fight victory. Close distance early, initiate clinch exchanges along the fence, generate significant strikes from dirty boxing and short elbows (where she produces 29% of her output), then transition into takedown attempts from the clinch position. Her target is 2-3 takedowns per round, using the cage for leverage and timing her shots off Hughes' striking exchanges.
Once Rodriguez secures takedowns, her priority should be positional control and ground-and-pound rather than submission attempts — her 0.0 SubPer15 confirms this approach. She should accumulate control time and grinding damage while being mindful of Hughes' improved submission game and avoiding leaving her neck or back exposed during scrambles. On the feet, Rodriguez can be content with moderate output (3.54 SLpM) as long as she's landing clean and initiating clinch entries.
🚀 Sam Hughes Key Advantages
Hughes throws and lands more significant strikes per minute than Rodriguez — her 4.34 SLpM advantage may not sound massive, but in women's strawweight where the pace tends to be lower and every exchange matters on the scorecards, this volume edge creates genuine opportunities. If Hughes can keep the fight at range and avoid Rodriguez's clinch and takedowns, her higher output gives her a path to winning rounds through sheer activity. She landed 69 significant strikes in their first fight — proof she can generate meaningful offense even against Rodriguez's game.
Hughes' most recent win — a rear naked choke of Shauna Bannon at 1:58 of R2 — demonstrates a finishing dimension that didn't exist in her first fight with Rodriguez. She now carries a 4-win submission resume, including RNCs that show excellent back-control finishing ability. If Rodriguez takes this fight to the ground (which she will), Hughes' submission threat creates a genuine danger zone: a scramble that leads to back exposure could result in a finish that Rodriguez simply didn't face in their first encounter. Rodriguez's 0.0 submission rate and her armbar loss to Robertson suggest she's not the most composed on the mat.
Hughes is riding the longest winning streak of her UFC career. Her victories over Dudakova, Luciano, and Bannon show progressive improvement — from competitive split decisions to a legitimate submission finish. This trajectory suggests a fighter who is peaking at the right time, potentially reaching a new level that the statistics from earlier in her career don't fully capture. Momentum matters psychologically — Hughes enters this rematch with the confidence of three consecutive victories rather than the lingering doubt of her defeat.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Hughes defended 0 of Rodriguez's 5 takedowns in their first fight and carries a career 60% takedown defense rate — well below average. Against a fighter who shoots 4.53 takedowns per 15 minutes at 54% accuracy, Hughes is likely to spend significant time on her back. The problem is structural, not tactical — Rodriguez is simply a better wrestler, and the small cage magnifies this advantage by providing fence assistance. Each minute spent on the mat is a minute where Hughes can't use her higher striking output.
Hughes' -0.10 strike differential per minute means she's marginally losing the striking battle in an average fight. Against Rodriguez, who generates a +0.73 differential, the 15-minute projection produces approximately 12 fewer net significant strikes for Hughes. That deficit — combined with the takedown control time — creates a scorecards mountain that is extremely difficult to climb. She's absorbing 4.44 SApM, which compounds over three rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Hughes' primary objective should be keeping this fight at range where her 4.34 SLpM output and 46% accuracy can accumulate scorecards advantages. She needs to pump the jab, move laterally, and resist engaging in clinch exchanges where Rodriguez thrives. Against the cage, Hughes must improve her fence management — frame, circle off, and create separation rather than accepting the clinch. Defensively, her takedown defense (60%) is the critical area: she needs to sprawl harder and use underhooks to prevent Rodriguez's clinch takedowns.
The new wrinkle in this rematch is Hughes' submission game — if Rodriguez does take her down, Hughes should look for scramble opportunities to take the back and threaten the RNC (her best submission), turning what was a dominant position for Rodriguez in the first fight into a dangerous one. Her 4 career submission wins provide genuine finishing equity that wasn't in her arsenal in 2022. The gameplan is: stay at range, stuff takedowns, outwork Rodriguez with volume, and if taken down, threaten submissions.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Small Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot octagon at the UFC Apex creates dynamics that heavily favor Rodriguez's inside fighting style. The compressed space makes it harder for distance fighters like Hughes (76% standing strikes) to maintain their preferred range. Rodriguez will use the cage walls as force multipliers — pressing Hughes to the fence, initiating clinch exchanges, and timing takedown shots with cage leverage. However, the small cage also means scrambles happen in tighter spaces, exactly where Hughes' improved submission game could find opportunities off takedown exchanges.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a clear structural advantage for Rodriguez. Her 4.53 takedowns per 15 minutes at 54% accuracy — combined with Hughes' 60% takedown defense — means Rodriguez will successfully implement at least 2-3 takedowns per fight in approximately 65% of simulations. Her +0.73 strike differential versus Hughes' -0.10 differential shows that even on the feet, Rodriguez is landing cleaner despite lower volume. The clinch dimension (29% vs 10%) adds another layer of scoring that compounds across 15 minutes.
🧩Rematch Variable
The most significant change from the first fight is Hughes' demonstrated submission finishing ability. Her RNC of Bannon (1:58, R2) introduces a finish path that didn't exist in 2022. In approximately 10-12% of simulations, a Rodriguez takedown or ground scramble leads to a transition where Hughes takes the back and threatens or finishes a rear naked choke. In women's UFC rematches where the first fight was a clear decision, the original winner wins approximately 60-65% of the time.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Rodriguez by Decision (45% probability), mirroring exactly how she won the first fight. All 4 of her UFC victories have come by decision — she doesn't finish fights at this level but dominates rounds through takedown control, clinch work, and strike differential efficiency. Hughes' primary upset path is by Decision (22%) if she can stuff enough takedowns and outwork Rodriguez at range. The most credible upset-by-finish path is Hughes by Submission (13%) — a genuine evolution in her game since their first meeting.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
BEST LONGSHOT
Model: 13% | Fair: +669
GOOD VALUE
Model: 45% | Fair: +122
STRUCTURAL BET
Model: 67% | Both fighters go the distance
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Decision-heavy profiles – Both fighters' UFC histories scream "decision" — combined 67% probability fight goes to scorecards.
- • Rematch precedent – Rodriguez already won this matchup with a clear wrestling-dominant gameplan.
- • Hughes' submission evolution – New RNC finishing ability creates upset mechanism that didn't exist in first fight.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Piera Rodriguez
Primary path via takedown control and clinch work
Clinch GNP and elbows against the fence
Very low — 0.0 submission rate in career
💥Outcome Distribution - Sam Hughes
Primary upset path via volume at range
New RNC threat off ground scrambles
0.00 knockdown rate in UFC
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Sam Hughes
- • First 5 minutes: Highest TDD success before Rodriguez establishes patterns.
- • Volume at range: Jab-cross combos to outwork and stuff entries.
- • Ground scrambles: Turn takedowns into RNC opportunities.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Piera Rodriguez
- • Clinch entries: Cage-press to takedown sequences bank control time.
- • Strike differential: Cleaner efficient shots outscore Hughes' volume.
- • Late rounds: Wrestling patterns compound and Hughes' TDD degrades.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate edge via wrestling and clinch, tempered by rematch adjustments
✅Supporting Factors
- • Already beat Hughes via unanimous decision in 2022
- • 4.53 TD per 15 min at 54% accuracy vs 60% TDD
- • Superior clinch game (29% vs 10% output)
- • +0.73 strike differential vs Hughes' -0.10
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Hughes' new submission ability (4 career sub wins)
- • Rematch adjustments — Hughes has studied the first fight
- • Hughes' higher volume striking (4.51 SLpM vs 3.33)
🏁Executive Summary
This is a rematch that Rodriguez won clearly the first time via unanimous decision in May 2022. Rodriguez's wrestling-centric approach should again be the difference-maker: her 4.53 takedowns per 15 minutes at 54% accuracy against Hughes' 60% takedown defense creates a structural advantage that compounds across three rounds. The clinch dimension (29% vs 10%) provides additional scoring that Hughes struggles to match. Rodriguez's +0.73 strike differential versus Hughes' -0.10 shows she lands cleaner even on the feet despite lower overall volume. The biggest change is Hughes' evolved submission game — her RNC finish of Bannon introduces genuine finishing equity that didn't exist in 2022, creating a credible upset mechanism off ground scrambles.
Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision most likely (45% probability) through consistent takedown pressure and clinch control, mirroring the first fight. Hughes' primary upset paths are by Decision (22%) via improved striking volume and TDD, or by Submission (13%) via her new RNC threat off ground scrambles. This is a moderate confidence lean — rematch dynamics and Hughes' submission evolution introduce meaningful uncertainty.