Marwan Rahiki vs Harry Hardwick
Men's Featherweight Bout Bout • UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Saturday, March 14, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Marwan Rahiki
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Harry Hardwick
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Marwan Rahiki
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Ananias Mulumba | W | TKO (Knee, Elbows & Uppercut) (R2, 2:13) |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Gabriel Schlupp | W | TKO (Ground & Pound) (R2, ) |
| May 31, 2025 | Semakadde Kakembo | W | SUB (Guillotine Choke) (R4, ) |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Michael Barber | W | KO (Punches) (R1, 3:02) |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Michael Mannu | W | KO/TKO (R1, ) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Harry Hardwick
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2025 | Kaue Fernandes | L | KO/TKO (Calf Kick) (R1, 3:21) |
| Mar 21, 2025 | Javier Garcia | W | Decision (Technical) (, ) |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Keweny Lopes | W | TKO (Punches) (R4, 1:01) |
| May 25, 2024 | Orlando Wilson Prins | W | TKO (Punches) (R2, 2:18) |
| Jul 21, 2023 | Vitor Estevam | W | SUB (Rear Naked Choke) (R2, 0:33) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Marwan Rahiki Key Advantages
Rahiki's 5.96 significant strikes per minute vs Hardwick's 2.39 represents a 2.5x output differential that creates overwhelming pressure. Combined with 47% accuracy vs Hardwick's 34%, Rahiki lands more strikes AND at a higher clip. His knockout power from multiple angles—uppercuts, spinning kicks, knees, elbows—makes every exchange dangerous. This volume disparity becomes particularly punishing in the small cage where Hardwick cannot circle away to reset.
Rahiki has never gone to a decision in 7 professional fights, finishing every opponent. His diverse finishing toolkit includes 5 KO/TKO wins and 2 submissions, with methods ranging from elbows and spinning kicks to guillotines. This 100% finish rate demonstrates fight- ending instinct that Hardwick will struggle to contain. The variety of his finishing sequences means opponents cannot prepare for a single threat—the danger comes from everywhere. His DWCS contract-winning performance showcased this versatility at the highest amateur-to-pro transition level.
The 25-foot UFC Apex cage dramatically favors Rahiki's aggressive forward-pressure style. With less space to circle, reset, and use stance-switching angles, Hardwick's switch-stance capability becomes less effective. Rahiki can cut the cage quickly, corner Hardwick against the fence, and force exchanges at a higher frequency. The compressed dimensions reduce escape lanes and increase the probability of sustained exchanges where Rahiki's volume and accuracy advantages become devastating. This is the ideal environment for an aggressive finisher.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Hardwick's 5 career submission victories represent his most realistic path to an upset. If Hardwick can close the distance, initiate clinch work, and drag the fight to the ground, his submission threat becomes significant. Rahiki's aggressive forward pressure sometimes leads to over-commitment, which a savvy grappler can exploit by pulling guard or working for takedowns off counter opportunities. Although Rahiki has 100% takedown defense, that's based on limited UFC exposure, and Hardwick's desperation wrestling in later rounds could create scramble situations where Rahiki's defensive grappling is truly tested.
Rahiki's 6.10 SApM is significantly elevated and represents a genuine vulnerability. While his forward pressure generates massive output, he absorbs more strikes than the average featherweight. Against a switch-stance operator like Hardwick who can time counter shots from both stances, this absorption rate creates the possibility of Rahiki walking into a clean counter that changes the fight's trajectory. If Hardwick can catch Rahiki coming in with a well-timed combination and score a flash knockdown, the dynamics shift dramatically.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Rahiki should maintain constant forward motion, using jabs and low kicks to close distance before launching combination attacks. His 5.96 SLpM output breaks opponents' rhythm and prevents them from settling into their preferred range. By walking Hardwick down and forcing frequent exchanges in the small cage, Rahiki maximizes his volume and accuracy advantages while negating Hardwick's stance-switching evasion tactics.
Rahiki should focus on cutting off the cage angles and trapping Hardwick along the fence. Once there, the clinch-to-strikes sequences with knees, elbows, and short hooks become fight-ending weapons. Against a fighter coming off a R1 KO loss who may be gun-shy, aggressive fence pressure creates both physical and psychological advantages. Rahiki's 100% finish rate suggests he recognizes and capitalizes on hurt opponents—once Hardwick shows signs of damage, Rahiki should swarm with combinations to close the show.
🚀 Harry Hardwick Key Advantages
Hardwick's 5 career submission victories represent his most dangerous weapon and primary path to an upset. His ground game includes chokes, armlocks, and leg locks that can end a fight from anywhere. If he can initiate clinch work against the fence or catch Rahiki off-balance during an aggressive forward rush, Hardwick's submission threat becomes very real. His Fightcross MMA training background emphasizes ground transitions, and against a primarily striking opponent, one successful takedown entry could change the fight's trajectory entirely.
Hardwick's ability to switch stances creates timing disruptions that can exploit Rahiki's aggressive forward pressure. When Rahiki loads up on combinations, Hardwick's stance switches change the angle of engagement and create counter-striking opportunities. Against a fighter who absorbs 6.10 strikes per minute, well-timed counters from unexpected angles present genuine knockout potential. Hardwick's calf kick KO loss to Borralho demonstrates he understands the power of well-placed single shots—if he can apply the same principle going forward, catching Rahiki coming in could create flash knockdown or finish opportunities.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Rahiki's 5.96 SLpM output represents an overwhelming volume that could drown Hardwick's attempt to establish any rhythm. With only 34% striking accuracy and 2.39 SLpM, Hardwick will struggle to keep pace in exchanges and may become defensively overwhelmed. The constant forward pressure from Rahiki prevents Hardwick from setting up his preferred grappling entries, as he'll be forced to shell up and absorb strikes rather than initiating clinch work or takedown attempts.
The 25-foot UFC Apex cage eliminates Hardwick's ability to maintain distance and use his switch-stance movement to create angles. In the large cage, Hardwick could circle, reset, and avoid sustained pressure. In the small cage, Rahiki's cage-cutting ability compresses the available space to dangerously small dimensions. Coming off a R1 KO loss via calf kick, Hardwick may be hesitant to plant his feet and commit to exchanges, creating a psychological disadvantage that the smaller cage amplifies by forcing more frequent engagement.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Hardwick's best strategy is to take the fight to the ground as quickly as possible. His 5 career submission wins give him a legitimate finishing threat if he can secure takedowns or pull guard off clinch exchanges. Rather than trying to out-strike Rahiki at range, where the volume differential is overwhelming, Hardwick should look for early clinch opportunities, dirty boxing setups, and any scramble situations to work toward his grappling strength.
If the fight stays on the feet, Hardwick's best chance is to time Rahiki's aggressive entries with well-placed counters from either stance. Rahiki's 6.10 SApM absorption rate means he will walk into shots. Hardwick should look for moments where Rahiki over-commits to combinations and try to slip and counter, potentially catching Rahiki with clean shots as he loads up. Surviving the early onslaught and making Rahiki respect his power is key to earning time for his grappling transitions.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot small cage at the UFC Apex creates a significant matchup variable that overwhelmingly favors Rahiki's aggressive forward-pressure style. With less room to circle, reset, and use stance-switching to create angles, Hardwick's switch-stance capability becomes less effective. Rahiki can cut the cage, corner Hardwick against the fence, and force exchanges at a higher frequency — exactly the dynamic that his 5.96 significant strikes per minute output is designed to exploit. The reduced octagon dimensions compress escape lanes and increase the probability of sustained exchanges where Rahiki's volume and accuracy advantages become devastating.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical gap between these two fighters is among the most lopsided on this card. Rahiki's 5.96 SLpM with 47% accuracy versus Hardwick's 2.39 SLpM with 34% accuracy represents a 2.5x output differential with 13% higher precision. In striking defense, Rahiki's 56% versus Hardwick's 40% creates a 16-point gap that translates to dramatically different damage accumulation rates. The absorption differential (6.10 vs 7.16 SApM) means Hardwick absorbs more despite throwing less. The takedown defense disparity (100% vs 0%) and submission activity (2.1/15min vs 0.0/15min) further compound Rahiki's advantages across every measurable metric.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: Rahiki's forward pressure vs Hardwick's stance-switching angles, striking volume vs defensive discipline, and early finishing ability vs survival instincts. Rahiki's diverse arsenal (spinning kicks, knees, elbows, uppercuts, ground -and-pound, guillotines) makes him extraordinarily difficult to prepare for. Hardwick's best weapon is his grappling pedigree (5 career submission wins), but his 0% takedown accuracy at UFC level and Rahiki's 100% takedown defense create a problem — he may not be able to get the fight where he is most dangerous. Calf kick vulnerability is a major concern for Hardwick after his R1 KO loss via calf kick in his last fight.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Marwan Rahiki by KO/TKO (52% probability), achieved through overwhelming striking volume, forward pressure, and his diverse finishing arsenal in the small cage. Rahiki's submission path (15%) becomes viable off scrambles and guillotine opportunities. Hardwick's primary upset lane is by Decision (12%) if he can survive the early onslaught, implement stance-switching effectively, and grind through competitive rounds. His submission path (9%) via rear naked choke or back-takes represents the most credible high-upside upset scenario. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Hardwick can survive Rahiki's early pressure and get the fight to the mat where his grappling gives him a legitimate chance.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 52% | Fair: -108
GOOD VALUE
Model: 58% | Fair: -138
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 9% | Best Longshot
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Fight NOT going to decision (-500) – Only 19% combined probability of reaching scorecards.
- • Rahiki’s 100% finish rate – Combined with Hardwick’s R1 KO vulnerability creates high early finish probability.
- • Small cage amplifier – 25ft cage reduces escape angles and favors Rahiki’s forward pressure.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Marwan Rahiki
Primary path via overwhelming striking volume and finishing instinct
Guillotine and neck cranks off scrambles
Unlikely — Rahiki has never gone to decision in 7 fights
💥Outcome Distribution - Harry Hardwick
Primary upset path via stance-switching and grinding rounds
RNC or back-control submissions off scrambles
Low probability counter-strike finish vs younger opponent
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Harry Hardwick
- • First 5 minutes: Best window for counter-strikes off Rahiki's aggressive entries.
- • Stance-switching: Create timing disruptions and counter angles vs forward pressure.
- • Get to the ground: Clinch entries and scrambles to leverage grappling advantage.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Marwan Rahiki
- • Pressure and volume: Walk Hardwick down with 5.96 SLpM output in the small cage.
- • Calf kicks: Target Hardwick's lead leg to exploit his KO vulnerability.
- • Diverse arsenal: Mix knees, elbows, spinning kicks, and guillotines to create uncertainty.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Elite striking differential and 100% finish rate create clear edge
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive 2.5x striking output differential (5.96 vs 2.39 SLpM)
- • 100% finish rate across 7 professional fights
- • 100% takedown defense vs 0% at UFC level
- • Small cage strongly favors forward-pressure fighter
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Hardwick's 5 career submission wins provide upset path
- • Switch-stance timing creates counter opportunities
- • Rahiki's 6.10 SApM absorption rate is elevated
🏁Executive Summary
Marwan Rahiki enters this fight as the clear statistical favorite across nearly every measurable metric. His 5.96 SLpM with 47% accuracy versus Hardwick's 2.39 SLpM with 34% accuracy creates one of the most lopsided striking differentials on this card. The small 25-foot cage at the UFC Apex further amplifies Rahiki's forward-pressure style by compressing escape angles and forcing sustained exchanges. With a 100% finish rate across 7 professional fights and a diverse arsenal including spinning kicks, knees, elbows, and guillotines, Rahiki presents an overwhelming challenge for a fighter coming off a R1 KO loss via calf kick. Hardwick's best path to victory runs through his grappling — 5 career submission wins and submission- heavy training — but his 0% takedown accuracy at UFC level versus Rahiki's 100% takedown defense makes accessing that path extremely difficult.
Prediction: Rahiki by KO/TKO most likely (52% probability) through overwhelming volume and forward pressure in the small cage; Hardwick's upset lane is by Decision (12%) or Submission (9%) if he can survive the early onslaught and implement his grappling. This fight should resolve inside the distance with high probability — 81% of simulated outcomes end by finish.