Elijah Smith vs Su Young You
Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Saturday, March 14, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage — UFC Apex)
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Elijah Smith
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Su Young You
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Elijah Smith
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2025 | Toshiomi Kazama | W | KO/TKO (Slam) (R1, 4:10) |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Vince Morales | W | Decision (UD) (, ) |
| Sep 17, 2024 | Aaron Tau | W | Decision (UD) (, ) |
| Jun 16, 2024 | Josh Walker | W | TKO (Punches & Elbows) (R1, ) |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Jacob Kreitel | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:37) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Su Young You
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2025 | Long Xiao | W | Decision (UD) (, ) |
| Mar 15, 2025 | AJ Cunningham | W | Decision (UD) (, ) |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Baergeng Jieleyisi | W | Decision (UD) (, ) |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Daermisi Zhawupasi | W | Decision (SD) (, ) |
| May 19, 2024 | Shohei Nose | W | Decision (UD) (, ) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Elijah Smith Key Advantages
Smith's 3.51 takedowns per 15 minutes vs You's 1.5 represents a 2.3x differential that gives him consistent cage control options. His 53% takedown accuracy and Division I wrestling background allow him to chain takedown attempts off striking exchanges, creating a constant threat that forces You to defend on multiple fronts. The ability to dictate where the fight takes place neutralizes You's BJJ advantage by keeping the fight standing or controlling top position when grounded.
At 5'9" with a 71" reach vs You's 5'6" and 65" reach, Smith holds a significant 6-inch reach advantage that allows him to establish jabs and straight punches from outside You's effective striking range. This physical edge becomes even more impactful in a 25ft cage (UFC Apex), where the smaller octagon limits You's ability to circle away. Smith's youth (23 vs 30) also provides an athleticism baseline that supports explosive transitions and scramble recovery.
Smith's 66.7% finish rate with 5 KO/TKO wins out of 9 victories demonstrates legitimate stopping power at bantamweight. His most recent finish—a slam KO of Toshiomi Kazama—showcases the kind of explosive athleticism that can end fights in any phase. With 4 of his finishes coming in Round 1, Smith is particularly dangerous early when his explosive energy is at its peak. You has been KO'd twice in his career, suggesting genuine vulnerability to power shots.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
You's 5 submission wins and BJJ pedigree make any ground engagement risky for Smith. If Smith's takedowns lead to scrambles rather than top control, You's guard work and submission chains become lethal. Smith's 0.88 Sub/15min suggests he doesn't actively hunt finishes on the ground, but getting caught in transitions could expose him to guillotines, triangles, or arm locks.
Smith's 48% striking defense and 3.40 strikes absorbed per minute suggest defensive gaps. If You can keep the fight at range and maintain his 4.2 SLpM output, the accumulated volume could shift scorecards. Smith's aggressive tendencies in the pocket could lead to exchanges where You's experience and composure give him an edge in counter-striking situations.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Smith should utilize his 6-inch reach advantage to establish the jab and create hesitation, then shoot off the same entry angle. His 53% takedown accuracy combined with MMA wrestling background makes this two-pronged approach effective. By alternating between striking and wrestling threats, Smith can keep You reactive rather than proactive.
Once Smith secures takedowns, prioritize maintaining top position and ground-and-pound rather than advancing to deep positions where You's BJJ becomes dangerous. By staying heavy in half-guard and landing short strikes, Smith can win rounds without exposing himself to submission attempts. This approach maximizes scoring while minimizing risk against a dangerous guard player.
🚀 Su Young You Key Advantages
You's 5 submission victories represent his most dangerous weapon. His BJJ-based MMA approach means any ground exchange carries submission risk for Smith. You has shown the ability to finish from multiple positions including guard, mount, and back control. His 0.8 submissions per 15 minutes shows active submission hunting, and if Smith's takedowns lead to scrambles rather than dominant control, You can capitalize on transitions to lock in chokes or joint locks.
You's 19 professional fights (16-3) compared to Smith's 10 (9-1) provides a significant experience advantage. At 30 years old, You has competed against higher-level competition and has been battle-tested in ways that Smith's limited 2-fight UFC resume hasn't yet proven. This experience translates to better cage IQ, composure under pressure, and understanding of how 3-round fights develop. You also has a higher takedown defense (58% vs 57%), suggesting he can compete in the wrestling exchanges.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Smith's 3.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and 53% accuracy can overwhelm You's 58% takedown defense. If Smith establishes consistent top control without exposing himself to submissions, You's striking output drops significantly. The 25ft cage limits You's ability to create distance and reset, making fence-wrestling a constant threat that drains energy and limits scoring opportunities.
You's 2 KO/TKO losses suggest vulnerability to power punches. Smith's explosive athleticism and 5 KO/TKO wins make the striking exchanges particularly dangerous for You if he can't maintain distance. The 6-inch reach disadvantage means You must close distance to land, walking into Smith's power range where the American's knockout ability poses a constant threat.
📋 Likely Gameplan
You's best path to victory may be to invite wrestling exchanges where he can work his BJJ off his back or in scrambles. Rather than defending takedowns at all costs, You could look to pull guard or accept takedowns while immediately working for sweeps, submissions, and scrambles. His 5 submission wins demonstrate he's most dangerous when the fight hits the mat on his terms.
You's 4.2 SLpM with 48% accuracy can compete with Smith's output if he manages distance effectively. By maintaining high volume and mixing in clinch entries for takedowns of his own, You can create a busy fight that prevents Smith from establishing his wrestling rhythm. The key is to stay active and force constant exchanges that favor You's well-rounded game over Smith's athletic-based approach.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot UFC Apex cage creates interesting dynamics in this matchup. The smaller octagon limits You's ability to circle away and maintain distance, which plays directly into Smith's wrestling-heavy approach. Smith's 6-inch reach advantage (71" vs 65") allows him to control the jab at range while the compressed space makes his takedowns more effective—less distance for You to escape to the center. However, the same cage size also means closer quarters clinch work, where You's underhook game and submission attempts from the clinch become viable. The cage dynamics ultimately favor Smith's ability to cut off the ring and initiate grappling sequences.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields: wrestling control and finishing ability. Smith's 3.51 TD/15min vs You's 1.5 represents a 2.3x differential that gives Smith consistent cage control options. However, the striking metrics are more evenly matched—Smith's 4.45 SLpM vs You's 4.2 shows comparable volume, while accuracy is nearly identical (47% vs 48%). The key differentiator is Smith's massive reach advantage (71" vs 65") which allows him to land clean from distance where You can't reciprocate. Smith's finishing ability (66.7% finish rate, 5 KO/TKOs) vs You's more decision-oriented approach creates a dynamic where Smith can end the fight at any moment while You must accumulate advantages over 15 minutes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: wrestling control vs submission threat on the ground, reach-based striking vs closing distance, and the experience vs athleticism dynamic. Smith's 53% takedown accuracy against You's 58% takedown defense creates a competitive wrestling exchange where neither fighter dominates outright. The ground game becomes a calculated risk—Smith needs top control without exposing himself to submissions, while You wants to get the fight to the mat where his BJJ excels. Standing, Smith's 6-inch reach advantage fundamentally controls the striking exchange, but You's 19-fight experience could manifest in better timing, cage IQ, and composure under pressure. This is ultimately a clash of physical gifts (youth, size, power) vs technical mastery (BJJ, experience, grinding).
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely single outcome is Elijah Smith by KO/TKO (33% probability), achieved through his explosive athleticism, reach advantage, and proven finishing power. Smith's decision path (19%) becomes viable through wrestling control and jab-based outpointing. You's primary win path is Decision (24%), leveraging his grinding style and control time to steal rounds. You's submission threat (10%) remains live throughout, making every ground exchange a calculated risk for Smith. The combined decision probability of 43% suggests this fight has roughly equal chances of going the distance or being finished.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 33% | Fair: +200
GOOD VALUE
Model: 24% | Fair: +315
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 57% | Fair: -133
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Reach differential underpriced – 6-inch reach gap limits You's striking output significantly.
- • Finishing ability vs durability – Smith's KO power vs You's never-been-finished-in-UFC record.
- • Small cage factor – 25ft Apex favors Smith's wrestling pressure and limits You's movement.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Elijah Smith
Wrestling control and jab-based outpointing
Explosive finishing, reach-based power striking
Scramble submissions and ground control
💥Outcome Distribution - Su Young You
Extremely unlikely — limited KO power at 135
Primary upset path — grinding control and volume
BJJ mastery with 5 career sub wins
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Su Young You
- • Early clinch entries: Close distance to neutralize reach gap.
- • Guard pulling: Invite grappling on his terms for BJJ advantages.
- • Volume accumulation: Win dirty exchanges and control time.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Elijah Smith
- • Jab-to-takedown: Use reach to set up wrestling entries.
- • Top control: Maintain position without submission exposure.
- • Pace separation: Athletic advantages compound as rounds progress.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate edge via reach, wrestling, and finishing ability
✅Supporting Factors
- • 6-inch reach advantage (71" vs 65") controls striking range
- • 2.3x takedown volume edge (3.51 vs 1.5 TD15)
- • Superior finishing power (5 KO/TKOs, 66.7% finish rate)
- • Youth and athleticism advantage at 23 vs 30
⚠️Risk Factors
- • You's 5 submission wins create constant ground danger
- • 19-fight experience gap could manifest in cage IQ
- • You has never been finished in UFC (durability factor)
🏁Executive Summary
Elijah Smith's physical advantages should enable him to control the striking range with his 71-inch reach while mixing in wrestling pressure via his 3.51 takedowns per 15 minutes. Su Young You's best equity centers on his elite BJJ (5 submission wins) and his ability to create submission opportunities from any grappling exchange. The statistical differentials favor Smith: his 6-inch reach advantage controls the jab distance, his 2.3x takedown volume edge gives consistent cage control options, and his 66.7% finish rate means he can end the fight at any moment. You's experience advantage (19 fights vs 10) and never-been-finished-in-UFC durability provide a real counterweight, but the physical gifts gap at bantamweight makes Smith the clear favorite.
Prediction: Smith by KO/TKO most likely (33% probability) through explosive finishing and reach-based striking; You's primary upset lane is Decision (24%) via grinding control and volume accumulation. You's submission threat (10%) ensures every ground exchange carries risk for Smith. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Smith can leverage his physical advantages for a finish before You's experience and BJJ mastery find openings.