Bia Mesquita vs Montserrat Rendon
Women's Bantamweight Bout Bout • UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Saturday, March 14, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage) • UFC Apex, Las Vegas
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Bia Mesquita
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Montserrat Rendon
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Bia Mesquita
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | Irina Alekseeva | W | SUB (RNC) (R2, 2:14) |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Sierra Dinwoodie | W | TKO (Punches) (R2, 3:05) |
| Mar 6, 2025 | Hope Chase | W | DQ (Illegal Kick) (R2, 2:20) |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Fernanda Araujo | W | SUB (RNC) (R2, 4:21) |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Shannel Butler | W | SUB (RNC) (R1, 3:24) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Montserrat Rendon
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2025 | Alice Pereira | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Darya Zheleznyakova | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Tamires Vidal | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| Sep 28, 2022 | Brittney Cloudy | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| Mar 19, 2022 | Claudia Zamora | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Bia Mesquita Key Advantages
Mesquita is a multiple-time IBJJF World Champion and ADCC medalist, bringing elite-level grappling credentials unmatched in the women's bantamweight division. Her 95.0 composite grappling score vs Rendon's 52.5 represents an enormous 80.9% differential. With 4 of her 6 career wins coming by submission (all RNC), she demonstrates world-class back-taking ability and finishing instincts from dominant positions. Once she secures top control or takes the back, opponents have shown virtually no ability to escape.
With 5 of 6 career wins coming by stoppage (4 SUB, 1 TKO), Mesquita's 83.3% finish rate is extraordinary. Her average fight duration of 6:30 indicates she doesn't need much time to impose her will. Against Rendon who has never been finished and goes to decisions 100% of the time, this creates a fascinating dynamic where Mesquita's acceleration toward finishes meets Rendon's survival instincts. The Brazilian's RNC is her signature weapon, and once she secures back control, the fight typically ends quickly.
The UFC Apex's 25-foot small cage dramatically reduces the space Rendon needs to maintain distance and circle away from clinch entries. For a grappler like Mesquita, the compressed space truncates the striking exchanges that favor Rendon and accelerates the transition to grappling range. Historical data shows grapplers have a measurable advantage in the small cage, and Mesquita's ability to close distance quickly and initiate takedowns benefits enormously from the reduced area available for footwork and circling.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Rendon has never been finished in 8 professional fights. Her 100% takedown defense in UFC bouts and ability to survive through three rounds of combat present a genuine obstacle to Mesquita's finishing instincts. If Rendon can prevent the takedown or scramble back to her feet repeatedly, the fight could become a frustrating grind for Mesquita, who has limited experience going to decisions.
Mesquita has only 1 UFC fight, making her statistical profile largely unknown at this level. Her striking stats are essentially zeros, meaning we cannot quantify her ability to defend against UFC-caliber volume or maintain composure against octagon pressure. Rendon's 3 UFC fights provide more data, and her 59% striking defense and competitive decision losses show she can survive at this level. If Mesquita's grappling transitions don't work against a UFC-tested opponent, she may find herself in uncomfortable striking exchanges.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Mesquita should utilize the clinch as her primary entry point for takedowns. Her BJJ background provides strong underhook control and body lock takedowns. In the small cage, she can pressure Rendon to the fence and initiate trips and throws from the clinch. Once on the mat, she should immediately work to take the back, her highest percentage finishing position. The Brazilian's world-class grappling gives her multiple pathways from any position.
Once Mesquita secures takedowns, her priority should be establishing back control and hunting the rear-naked choke. Her RNC is her signature weapon with 4 career finishes. She should use fence pressure to limit Rendon's escape routes, work body triangles, and maintain heavy top control. If the submission isn't there, accumulating control time and ground-and-pound ensures scoring advantages on the judges' cards.
🚀 Montserrat Rendon Key Advantages
Rendon has 3 UFC appearances compared to Mesquita's lone debut. She understands the octagon environment, judges' scoring criteria, and the pace required to compete at the highest level. Her 59% striking defense and 100% takedown defense in UFC bouts demonstrate she can execute defensive game plans effectively. This octagon experience could prove decisive if the fight becomes tactical, as Rendon knows exactly how to manage rounds and accumulate scoring moments.
While Rendon's 28% striking accuracy is below average, her 3.09 SLpM output provides a volume advantage that Mesquita has no UFC-level equivalent for. Rendon's ability to maintain striking pressure and keep the fight at range is her primary path to victory. If she can stuff takedown attempts and force Mesquita to trade on the feet, her volume advantage could accumulate enough scoring moments to win rounds on the judges' cards.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Mesquita secures takedowns, Rendon's lack of ground game becomes a critical liability. With 0 submission attempts per 15 minutes, Rendon offers no offensive threat off her back. Once Mesquita establishes top position or takes the back, Rendon's survival instincts are her only defense against world-class grappling. The fight could end quickly once it hits the mat.
Rendon has never finished an opponent in 8 professional fights. Her 0% finish rate means even if she's winning striking exchanges, she lacks the power or submission skill to end the fight early. This forces her to go to the judges' cards every time, which becomes problematic against a finisher like Mesquita who can end the fight at any moment. Rendon's inability to threaten finishes also removes any deterrent for Mesquita's aggressive grappling entries.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Rendon's best strategy is to maintain distance and use her 3.09 SLpM volume to outwork Mesquita on the feet. She should use jabs, teeps, and movement to keep Mesquita at range and prevent clinch entries. Even with the small cage, Rendon can circle along the fence and use push kicks to create separation whenever Mesquita closes distance. Her goal should be winning rounds by accumulating volume rather than seeking finishes.
Rendon's 100% UFC takedown defense is her most critical weapon. She must maintain this by staying off the fence, using underhooks defensively, and immediately scrambling to her feet if taken down. If she can keep the fight standing for three rounds, her striking volume gives her the best chance of winning on the scorecards. She should front-load damage in the early rounds before Mesquita can solve her defensive puzzle and establish grappling sequences.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot small cage at the UFC Apex significantly favors Mesquita's grappling-first approach. The compressed space reduces Rendon's ability to circle, reset, and maintain striking distance. For Mesquita, the smaller cage means shorter entries to the clinch and fewer steps to cage-cut and initiate takedown sequences. Rendon's striking volume (3.09 SLpM) is most effective at range, but the cage dimensions truncate these exchanges. The fight likely features an early striking phase where Rendon tries to accumulate volume before Mesquita solves the distance puzzle and begins wrestling sequences that progressively compress the available space even further.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The massive grappling differential is the defining factor. Mesquita's 95.0 composite grappling score vs Rendon's 52.5 represents an 80.9% advantage that should dominate whenever the fight hits the mat. Rendon's striking volume (3.09 SLpM) provides her only competitive avenue, but her 28% accuracy limits clean damage output. Mesquita's 83.3% finish rate and Rendon's 0% finish rate create an extreme asymmetry in finishing capability. The technical battle comes down to Rendon's takedown defense (100% in UFC) versus Mesquita's ability to close distance in 25-foot cage and initiate grappling exchanges from the clinch.
📊Statistical Deep Dive (Mesquita)
- • High Impact Grappling: Averaging 4.15 takedowns per 15 minutes with 66% accuracy.
- • Submission Threat: 2.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes highlights constant danger.
- • Striking Efficiency: 4.98 SLpM at 57% accuracy demonstrates effective output to set up entries.
- • Defensive Soundness: Absorbing only 0.83 SApM with 73% striking defense.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas determine the outcome: clinch entries, mat control, and survival capability. Mesquita needs to close distance and initiate grappling—if she succeeds, her world-class BJJ creates finishing opportunities from virtually any position. Rendon's 100% UFC takedown defense is her primary shield, but it has only been tested in 3 fights. The key question is whether Rendon's defensive wrestling holds against an IBJJF World Champion's pressure in a 25-foot cage. If the fight stays standing, Rendon's volume gives her a path. If it goes to the ground, Mesquita's submission arsenal becomes overwhelming. The small cage heavily favors the grappling specialist.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Bia Mesquita by Submission (38% probability), achieved through clinch takedowns into back control and RNC finishes. Her decision path (22%) comes via dominant grappling control and accumulation of minutes atop Rendon. The TKO path (13%) emerges from ground-and-pound sequences if the submission isn't available. Rendon's best path is decision (21%) through maintaining distance and accumulating striking volume over three rounds. Her KO/TKO upset lane (5%) requires catching Mesquita clean on the feet, a low-probability scenario given the Brazilian's urgency to clinch.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 38% | Fair: -163
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% | Fair: +354
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 21% | Fair: +376
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Grappling gap undervalued – 80.9% composite differential is massive at any level.
- • Finish rate asymmetry – 83.3% vs 0% creates one-way KO/Sub equity.
- • Small cage amplifies grappling – 25ft octagon favors clinch-to-ground approach.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Bia Mesquita
Dominant grappling control and accumulation
Ground-and-pound if submission unavailable
Primary path via back-takes into RNC
💥Outcome Distribution - Montserrat Rendon
Catching Mesquita clean on the feet
Volume advantage over three rounds
Low historical submission profile for Rendon
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Montserrat Rendon
- • Round 1 distance: Volume striking at range before clinch entries.
- • Takedown defense: Push kicks + circle to stall entries.
- • Short exchanges: Use volume then reset; avoid extended clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Bia Mesquita
- • Clinch entries: Body lock and trips to initiate ground game.
- • Back control: Hunt the RNC from dominant position.
- • Late rounds: Grappling sequences become decisive as Rendon tires.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via grappling pedigree, tempered by limited UFC data
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive grappling composite differential (80.9%)
- • 83.3% finish rate vs 0% finish rate asymmetry
- • Small cage (25ft) amplifies clinch-to-ground approach
- • 4 career RNC finishes demonstrate elite back control
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Only 1 UFC fight for Mesquita (limited data)
- • Rendon's 100% UFC takedown defense
- • Rendon's durability — never finished in 8 pro fights
🏁Executive Summary
Bia Mesquita's world-class BJJ credentials create a massive grappling asymmetry that should define this fight. Her 95.0 composite grappling score vs Rendon's 52.5 represents an 80.9% advantage, and the 25-foot small cage at the UFC Apex compresses the available space, truncating Rendon's striking phase and accelerating the fight toward Mesquita's preferred grappling range. With 4 career RNC finishes, Mesquita's back-taking ability creates constant finishing threats once the fight hits the mat. Rendon's best assets are her 100% UFC takedown defense and durability (never finished in 8 pro fights), but these have only been tested in 3 UFC bouts against lesser grapplers.
Prediction: Mesquita by Submission most likely (38% probability) through clinch takedowns into back control and RNC finishes; Rendon's best path is decision (21%) via maintaining distance and accumulating striking volume over three rounds. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Rendon can keep the fight standing against an IBJJF World Champion's relentless grappling pressure in a 25-foot cage.