Oumar Sy vs Ion Cutelaba
Men's Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Saturday, March 14, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Oumar Sy
12-1-0
Oumar Sy
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Ion Cutelaba
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Oumar Sy
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2025 | Brendson Ribeiro | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:42) |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Alonzo Menifield | L | Decision (UD) (R3, ) |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Da Woon Jung | W | Decision (UD) (R3, ) |
| May 18, 2024 | Tuco Tokkos | W | Submission (R1, 3:43) |
| Jun 30, 2023 | Ildemar Alcantara | W | KO/TKO (R1, ) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ion Cutelaba
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2025 | Modestas Bukauskas | L | Decision (SD) (R3, ) |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Ibo Aslan | W | Submission (R1, 2:51) |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Ivan Erslan | W | Decision (SD) (R3, ) |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Philipe Lins | L | Decision (UD) (R3, ) |
| Apr 15, 2023 | Tanner Boser | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:05) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Oumar Sy Key Advantages
Sy's 70% striking defense represents a 49% advantage over Cutelaba's 47%, creating a massive damage economy gap. While absorbing only 1.72 strikes per minute compared to Cutelaba's 3.34 SApM, Sy can weather early storms and capitalize on Cutelaba's tendency to leave himself open during wild exchanges. This defensive composure, combined with Sy's patient counter-striking style, means he can let Cutelaba swing wildly and tire himself out while staying relatively undamaged.
Sy's cardio composite of 69.00 dwarfs Cutelaba's 54.00, creating a 27.8% advantage in conditioning. Cutelaba is notoriously front-loaded — his explosive first-round blitzes often give way to dramatic output drops in later rounds. If Sy survives the early storm, his superior conditioning allows him to take over as Cutelaba fades. His overall technical score of 59.50 vs Cutelaba's 53.90 further reinforces a skill gap that widens as the fight progresses into deeper waters.
At 6'4" with an 83" reach vs Cutelaba's 6'1" and 75" reach, Sy holds a massive 8-inch reach advantage and 3-inch height edge. This allows him to manage distance effectively, land jabs and front kicks from range, and force Cutelaba to close significant distance. In the 25-foot small cage, Cutelaba's ability to close the gap improves, but Sy's long frame still provides structural advantages in the clinch and from range.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cutelaba's explosive first-round power (68% KO/TKO rate, majority in R1) is the most dangerous window. If Sy gets caught clean during an early wild exchange before establishing his rhythm, Cutelaba's heavy hands at 205 lbs carry legitimate fight-ending power. Sy's 48% striking accuracy suggests he sometimes needs time to find range — that adjustment period is Cutelaba's best opportunity.
Cutelaba's 3.77 TD/15min at 49% accuracy outpaces Sy's 2.73 TD/15 at 37%. While Sy has 100% TDD historically, that small sample (4 UFC fights) may not hold against Cutelaba's Sambo-based wrestling. If Cutelaba secures early takedowns and imposes his grappling, it neutralizes Sy's range advantages and plays directly into the Moldovan's strengths.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Sy should use his 8-inch reach advantage to manage distance with jabs, front kicks, and long straights while avoiding Cutelaba's power exchanges. The key is staying patient through Round 1 where Cutelaba is most dangerous, maintaining defensive posture, and waiting for the output to naturally decline. By staying at the end of his punches, Sy can keep Cutelaba at bay and score clean without absorbing crippling return fire.
Once Cutelaba shows signs of cardio decline (typically mid-R2 onward), Sy should increase pressure with offensive wrestling and striking combinations. His 75% finish rate shows he can close fights when opponents are compromised. Mix takedown attempts with submission threats (0.39 Sub/15) to exploit Cutelaba's accumulated fatigue and declining defensive reactions.
🚀 Ion Cutelaba Key Advantages
Cutelaba's 4.26 SLpM output exceeds Sy's 3.67 by 16%, and his explosive Sambo-trained power has produced 13 KO/TKO wins in his career. His 84.2% finish rate demonstrates he rarely goes to the scorecards — when he wins, he finishes. The Moldovan's ability to swarm opponents with heavy combinations in the pocket creates immediate danger, particularly against taller opponents who may not expect the ferocity of his early-round blitzes. His power at 205 lbs is among the most dangerous in the division.
Cutelaba's 3.77 takedowns per 15 minutes at 49% accuracy significantly outpaces Sy's 2.73 at 37%. His Sambo background provides explosive trip entries, hip tosses, and body lock takedowns that differ from typical MMA wrestling. With a composite grappling score of 56.20 vs Sy's 53.80, the Moldovan holds a slight technical edge in ground exchanges. If Cutelaba can close distance and engage in the clinch, his wrestling becomes the great equalizer against Sy's reach advantage.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cutelaba's cardio composite of 54.00 vs Sy's 69.00 represents a 27.8% deficit that historically manifests as dramatic output drops in Rounds 2-3. His 8:10 average fight duration reflects this — fights that go deep rarely favor the Moldovan. If Sy can survive the early storm and drag Cutelaba into deep water, the conditioning gap becomes increasingly insurmountable, turning Cutelaba from predator to prey.
Sy's 8-inch reach advantage (83" vs 75") and 3-inch height edge create enormous closing distance challenges. Cutelaba must cover significant ground to enter striking range, exposing himself to jabs, front kicks, and intercepting strikes. His 47% striking defense means he's absorbing significant damage during entries, and Sy's 70% defensive rate limits the return on investment even when Cutelaba does land.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Cutelaba's best path to victory is a first-round finish. His game plan should center on immediately closing distance with explosive entries, throwing heavy combinations in the pocket, and not allowing Sy to establish his jab range. The small 25-foot cage aids this approach. Cutelaba should use feinted level changes to close the gap and then unload power shots — his R1 finish rate suggests this window is where he's most dangerous.
If striking entries prove difficult against Sy's range, Cutelaba should switch to his Sambo wrestling — using inside trips, body locks, and clinch takedowns to negate the reach disadvantage. His 49% takedown accuracy and 3.77 TD/15 rate give him tools to impose his will on the mat. Ground-and-pound from top position would neutralize Sy's striking defense advantage and create a more chaotic fight that favors Cutelaba's explosive style.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot Apex cage creates a compelling dynamic — Cutelaba benefits from the compressed space to close distance faster, while Sy must be more efficient with his 83-inch reach to establish and maintain range. The smaller cage means Cutelaba needs to cover less ground to initiate clinch exchanges and takedown attempts, partially neutralizing Sy's 8-inch reach advantage. However, Sy's 70% striking defense and composed counter-striking style should still allow him to punish entries even in the tighter space. As rounds progress, Cutelaba's cardio limitations (54.00 composite) will make the cage feel larger as his explosiveness fades.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a classic range vs. explosiveness matchup. Sy's 70% striking defense versus Cutelaba's 47% creates a massive 49% differential in damage economy — Sy absorbs only 1.72 SApM while Cutelaba takes 3.34. While Cutelaba outpaces Sy in raw output (4.26 vs 3.67 SLpM), his lower accuracy (42% vs 43%) and significantly worse defensive metrics mean he's trading at a net loss over time. The grappling battle is closer: Cutelaba's 3.77 TD/15 at 49% accuracy gives him the wrestling advantage, but Sy's 100% TDDef (small sample) and 0.39 Sub/15 submission threat create defensive counters.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas determine the outcome: range management vs explosive entries, cardio endurance past Round 1, and takedown defense vs Sambo wrestling. Sy's 8-inch reach advantage creates a fundamental structural challenge for Cutelaba — the Moldovan must eat punches on entry. Cutelaba's explosive power (68% career KO/TKO rate) means any clean connection can end the fight, but his 8:10 average fight time suggests he struggles to maintain output beyond the first round. The submission vulnerability alignment — Cutelaba's 4 UFC sub losses paired with Sy's 4 career sub wins — creates an additional layer of risk for the Moldovan as the fight deepens.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Oumar Sy by Decision (24% probability), achieved through reach-based range control, superior striking defense, and cardio advantages over 15 minutes. Sy's KO/TKO path (22%) materializes if Cutelaba fades in later rounds and becomes vulnerable to accumulative damage. Cutelaba's primary upset lane is KO/TKO (25%) — a first-round blitz with explosive power. His decision path (5%) requires sustained wrestling control across three rounds, which his cardio profile makes unlikely.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
BEST VALUE
Model: 24% | Fair: +317
FAIRLY PRICED
Model: 25% | Fair: +300
PACE VALUE
Model: ~71% finish rate combined
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Small cage partially neutralizes reach – 25-foot Apex reduces Sy's range control window.
- • Cutelaba's R1 explosion underpriced – 68% career KO/TKO rate makes early finish very live.
- • Cardio cliff creates round-dependent value – Cutelaba’s value drops sharply after Round 1.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Oumar Sy
Primary path via reach control and cardio advantage
Late-round stoppage as Cutelaba fades
Exploiting Cutelaba's 4 UFC sub losses
💥Outcome Distribution - Ion Cutelaba
Primary upset path via explosive R1 blitz
Sambo-based submission from top position
Requires 15-min wrestling control despite cardio limits
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ion Cutelaba
- • First 5 minutes: Highest KO equity via explosive power blitz.
- • Close distance fast: Level changes + clinch to negate reach.
- • Urgency critical: Every minute past R1 shifts probability toward Sy.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Oumar Sy
- • Jab + range control: Use 83" reach to keep Cutelaba at distance.
- • Weather R1 storm: Survive early blitz, then take over.
- • Cardio advantage: As Cutelaba fades, increase output and target finish.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate edge via reach and cardio; capped by Cutelaba's power
✅Supporting Factors
- • 8-inch reach advantage (83" vs 75") is structurally decisive
- • 70% vs 47% striking defense creates massive damage gap
- • Cardio composite 69.00 vs 54.00 (+27.8% advantage)
- • Cutelaba's 4 UFC submission losses align with Sy's sub game
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Cutelaba's explosive R1 power (68% career KO/TKO rate)
- • Small 25-foot Apex cage partially neutralizes reach
- • Sy's limited UFC sample (4 fights) creates uncertainty
🏁Executive Summary
Oumar Sy's reach advantage (83" vs 75") and striking defense superiority (70% vs 47%) create a structural edge that should grow as the fight progresses, while Ion Cutelaba's best equity centers on an explosive first-round blitz in the compressed 25-foot Apex cage. The statistical differentials favor Sy: his 1.72 SApM vs Cutelaba's 3.34 creates superior damage economy, while his cardio composite (69.00 vs 54.00) ensures he maintains output as Cutelaba historically fades. Sy's 9:36 average fight duration demonstrates three-round capability, while Cutelaba's 8:10 suggests late-round vulnerability. However, Cutelaba's 68% career KO/TKO rate and explosive Sambo-powered striking create genuine upset danger — particularly in the first 5 minutes where his output is highest.
Prediction: Sy by Decision most likely (24% probability) through reach-based range control and cardio advantages; Cutelaba's primary upset lane is early KO/TKO (25%) via explosive power in the compressed Apex cage. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Cutelaba can close distance and land before Sy's defensive composure and conditioning advantages become decisive factors.