Ernesta Kareckaite vs Sofia Montenegro
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Almabayev
Saturday, February 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage) • Arena CDMX, Mexico City
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Ernesta Kareckaite
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Sofia Montenegro
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ernesta Kareckaite
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Nicolle Caliari | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Dione Barbosa | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-26 | Carli Judice | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-18 | Ilona Wojda | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-01-22 | Laetitia Blot | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Sofia Montenegro
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | Jeisla Chaves | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-21 | Damara Vargas | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-27 | Jhovanna Ruiz | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 2:58) |
| 2024-09-25 | Anyela Perez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-09 | Sofia Landi | W | Submission - Heel Hook (R1, 2:04) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Ernesta Kareckaite Key Advantages
Kareckaite's 7.38 strikes landed per minute vs Montenegro's 4.27 represents a massive 73% volume advantage that fundamentally shifts scoring dynamics. This elite-level output allows Kareckaite to consistently out-land opponents and win rounds on scorecards through accumulation. Her high-volume approach creates a pace that forces Montenegro to fight above her comfort zone, making it difficult for the Colombian to find openings for her power shots. In a 30-foot cage, Kareckaite can use her reach advantage (71" vs 67") to maintain distance while peppering Montenegro with jabs and combinations, creating a scoring framework that judges consistently reward.
Kareckaite's physical advantages (5'9" vs 5'6" height, 71" vs 67" reach) create a significant edge in distance control, especially in a large 30-foot cage. The Lithuanian can establish her jab-heavy approach from range, using her longer frame to touch Montenegro while staying out of range of counters. This size differential allows Kareckaite to reset and work her volume game more effectively, forcing Montenegro to cover more ground to close distance. The reach advantage is particularly crucial in women's flyweight, where even small differences can determine who controls the striking exchanges.
Kareckaite's proven ability to win decisions (4 of 6 wins by decision, with 4 wins in Round 3) demonstrates her effectiveness in 15-minute battles. Her high-volume striking approach consistently wins rounds on scorecards, even in competitive fights. While she has split decision victories that show vulnerability to big moments, her overall track record suggests she can outwork opponents over three rounds. This decision-winning profile is crucial against Montenegro, who needs finishes to win—Kareckaite's volume and consistency make it difficult for judges to score rounds against her.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Kareckaite's 48% striking defense leaves openings for Montenegro's power shots. If Montenegro can close distance and land clean, her 67% finish rate suggests she can end the fight. Kareckaite's high-volume approach means she's constantly in range, creating opportunities for Montenegro to counter with her heavier hands. The Lithuanian's tendency to absorb strikes (6.09 SApM) while maintaining volume could backfire if Montenegro finds her timing and lands fight-altering shots.
Mexico City's altitude (7,350 feet) could significantly impact Kareckaite's high-volume approach. Her 7.38 SLpM pace requires exceptional cardio, and the reduced oxygen at altitude may cause her to fade earlier than usual. If Kareckaite's pace drops in Round 2 or 3, Montenegro's finishing ability becomes more dangerous. The Lithuanian's cardio advantage could be neutralized, creating opportunities for Montenegro to capitalize on fatigue-induced defensive lapses.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Kareckaite should utilize her reach advantage (71" vs 67") to establish her jab-heavy approach from range. Her 7.38 SLpM output should be maintained early, but she must be mindful of altitude—pacing herself while still out-landing Montenegro. The Lithuanian should work behind her jab, mixing in 1-2 combinations and lateral movement to prevent Montenegro from closing distance. By controlling range and maintaining volume, Kareckaite can win rounds on scorecards while minimizing risk of Montenegro's power shots.
Kareckaite's gameplan should focus on winning each round through consistent volume rather than seeking finishes. Her 67% decision win rate shows this approach works. She should maintain her pace across all three rounds, using her superior reach and volume to outscore Montenegro. If Montenegro closes distance, Kareckaite should use clinch breaks and lateral movement to reset rather than engaging in brawls. The key is maintaining her 7.38 SLpM pace while managing energy in the altitude.
🚀 Sofia Montenegro Key Advantages
Montenegro's 67% finish rate (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission) represents a significant threat that can end the fight at any moment. Her ability to finish fights early (3 wins in Round 1) means she doesn't need to win a volume battle—one clean shot or submission opportunity can change everything. This finishing ability is particularly dangerous against Kareckaite, who absorbs 6.09 strikes per minute and has only 48% striking defense. Montenegro's power shots and submission threats create constant danger that forces opponents to fight more cautiously.
Montenegro's 1.00 TD15 vs Kareckaite's 0.67 shows she's more active in seeking takedowns, and her 100% takedown defense (on limited sample) suggests she's difficult to take down. While her 25% takedown accuracy is low, her willingness to attempt takedowns creates scrambles where her submission skills (she has a heel hook finish) become dangerous. Montenegro can use grappling exchanges to create chaos and find opportunities for finishes, especially if she can get Kareckaite to the ground where volume becomes less relevant.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Montenegro's 4.27 SLpM vs Kareckaite's 7.38 represents a massive volume deficit that makes it difficult to win rounds on scorecards. If the fight remains a pure striking battle at distance, Montenegro will consistently be out-landed. Her 40% striking accuracy (vs Kareckaite's 42%) doesn't help close the gap, and judges typically reward volume over power in close rounds. Without finding a finish, Montenegro risks losing all three rounds simply by being outworked.
Montenegro's 4-inch reach disadvantage (67" vs 71") combined with her 3-inch height disadvantage makes it difficult to close distance against Kareckaite's jab-heavy approach. In a large 30-foot cage, Kareckaite can maintain distance and pepper Montenegro from range. Montenegro's takedown accuracy is only 25%, meaning most of her attempts to close distance via grappling will fail, leaving her exposed to counters. This physical disadvantage compounds over three rounds as Kareckaite's volume accumulates.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Montenegro must close distance and create brawls where her power can overcome Kareckaite's volume. Her gameplan should involve cutting off the cage, forcing exchanges in the pocket, and looking for opportunities to land fight-altering shots. Montenegro can't win a pure distance striking battle, so she needs to make it messy and dangerous. Her takedown attempts, even with low accuracy, can create scrambles where her submission skills become relevant. The key is creating chaos rather than trying to match Kareckaite's technical volume.
Montenegro's best chance lies in finding a finish early (Round 1 or 2) before Kareckaite's volume accumulates and the scorecards become difficult to overcome. Her 3 Round 1 finishes show she can end fights quickly when opportunities arise. Montenegro should look for openings to land power shots or create submission opportunities in scrambles. If she can't finish early, she needs to land significant damage that steals rounds despite losing the volume battle. Her 67% finish rate suggests she's capable, but she must capitalize on openings rather than waiting for them.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics & Physical Advantages
The 30-foot octagon at Arena CDMX creates an interesting dynamic for this matchup. Ernesta Kareckaite brings a significant physical advantage with +3 inches in height (5'9" vs 5'6") and a +4-inch reach advantage (71" vs 67"). In a large cage, this size differential allows Kareckaite to establish her high-volume striking game, using the space to reset and work her jab-heavy approach. Her ability to control distance will be crucial, as she can pepper Montenegro from range with her 7.38 strikes landed per minute—nearly double Montenegro's 4.27 SLpM. However, the altitude factor at Mexico City cannot be ignored: Kareckaite's cardio-intensive style may be tested if she maintains her typical pace, potentially creating windows for Montenegro to capitalize if the Lithuanian tires.
🎯Technical Breakdown: Volume vs Finishing Threat
This fight presents a classic striker's duel between contrasting approaches. Kareckaite's game is built on volume accumulation—her 7.38 SLpM is elite for the women's flyweight division, consistently out-landing opponents to win rounds on the scorecards. While her 42% striking accuracy is modest and her 48% striking defense leaves openings, the sheer output typically overwhelms opposition. Montenegro, conversely, is a lower-volume but more dangerous finisher with a 67% finish rate (compared to Kareckaite's 33%). Montenegro's 3 KO/TKO wins and 1 submission in 6 victories show she can end fights when opportunities arise. The statistical differentials reveal the strategic tension: Kareckaite must impose her pace early and consistently, while Montenegro needs to create chaos or explosive moments to offset the volume deficit.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: distance management vs pressure entries, cardio sustainability at altitude, and grappling exchanges. Kareckaite's reach advantage lets her control the first layer of defense, but Montenegro's 100% takedown defense (on limited sample) and higher TD15 (1.00 vs 0.67) suggest she can create scrambles when the striking isn't going her way. Montenegro's recent loss came via split decision, indicating competitive rounds where moments could swing scoring—exactly the scenario her aggressive finishing style thrives in. Kareckaite's split decision victories (4 of her 6 wins) show she often wins close fights, but they also reveal vulnerability to big moments stealing rounds. The round distribution data is telling: Kareckaite wins predominantly in R1 (2) and R3 (4), while Montenegro splits R1 (3) and R3 (3)—suggesting both are comfortable in 15-minute battles.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Ernesta Kareckaite by Decision (45% probability), achieved through consistent volume striking and superior distance control over three rounds. Her size advantage and proven ability to win close fights on scorecards make her the favorite in a 15-minute battle. Kareckaite's finish path (14% KO/TKO) exists but is less likely given her profile. Montenegro's upset lane centers on finding a finish (19% KO/TKO, 7% submission) through explosive moments or capitalizing on Kareckaite's defensive gaps (48% StrDef). Montenegro's decision path (12%) requires stealing rounds with damage moments despite losing the overall volume battle—a difficult but not impossible scenario given her recent competitive performances. The altitude variable and Montenegro's finish equity keep this from being a one-sided affair, but Kareckaite's technical advantages and volume approach make her the clear favorite.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 45% | Fair Odds: +122
GOOD VALUE
Model: 19% | Fair Odds: +426
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 58% | Fair Odds: -138
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues volume advantage – Kareckaite's 7.38 vs 4.27 SLpM differential is massive for decision outcomes.
- • Overprices finishing equity – Montenegro's 67% finish rate is impressive but against lower competition.
- • Large-cage bias – Space heavily favors Kareckaite's reach/volume style over Montenegro's pressure.
- • Altitude factor underestimated – Mexico City elevation could impact Kareckaite's pace-heavy approach.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ernesta Kareckaite
Primary path via volume and distance control
Volume accumulation leading to finish
Limited submission history
💥Outcome Distribution - Sofia Montenegro
Best lane via explosive moments and power shots
Requires stealing rounds with damage moments
Has heel hook finish in history
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Sofia Montenegro
- • First 7–10 minutes: Highest intercept KO equity.
- • Perimeter control: Teeps + calf kicks to stall entries.
- • Short pockets: Burst then reset; avoid extended clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Ernesta Kareckaite
- • Chain shots: Re-mats and rides bank control and sap pace.
- • Damage economy: Keep exchanges short; minimize risk.
- • Late minutes: Safer control edges decision likelihood.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via wrestling cycles and safer damage profile
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant takedown volume edge (3.25 vs 0.73 TD15)
- • Lower SApM and better damage economy
- • Ride control creates safe scoring minutes
- • Proven cardio over three rounds; scalable to five
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Montenegro's power shots vs Kareckaite's volume
- • Altitude impact on Kareckaite's pace
- • Montenegro's finishing ability in scrambles
🏁Executive Summary
Ernesta Kareckaite's high-volume striking approach should control the distance and win rounds through accumulation, while Sofia Montenegro's best equity centers on finding finishes through power shots or submission opportunities. The statistical differentials heavily favor Kareckaite: her 7.38 SLpM vs Montenegro's 4.27 creates a massive 73% volume advantage, while her +4-inch reach advantage allows her to control distance in the large 30-foot cage. Kareckaite's 67% decision win rate demonstrates her effectiveness in 15-minute battles, while Montenegro's 67% finish rate shows she can end fights at any moment. The Lithuanian's ability to maintain volume while controlling distance creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with her physical advantages.
Prediction: Kareckaite by Decision most likely (45% probability) through consistent volume and distance control; Montenegro's upset lane is KO/TKO (19%) or Submission (7%) via power shots or submission opportunities in scrambles. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Montenegro can find a finish before Kareckaite's volume accumulates and whether altitude impacts Kareckaite's pace-heavy approach.