Wes Schultz vs Damian Pinas
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Almabayev
Saturday, February 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Wes Schultz
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Damian Pinas
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Wes Schultz
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-14 | Mario Mingaj | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:51) |
| 2025-04-12 | Dustin Pape | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 0:55) |
| 2024-08-13 | Mansur Abdul-Malik | L | TKO - Ground Pound (R2, 3:55) |
| 2024-04-05 | Adland Benson | W | TKO - Ground Pound (R1, 3:39) |
| 2024-01-12 | Maurice Morris | W | TKO - Ground Strikes (R1, 1:52) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Damian Pinas
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | Vitor Costa | W | KO/TKO - Jab-cross (R1, 1:46) |
| 2024-12-13 | Wesley Silva | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 1:59) |
| 2024-09-20 | Jhony Gregory | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 4:01) |
| 2024-06-29 | Carlos Matos | W | KO/TKO (R2, 2:38) |
| 2024-03-29 | Italo Gomes | L | DQ - Illegal Kick (R1, 2:44) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Wes Schultz Key Advantages
Schultz's 5.57 takedowns per 15 minutes versus Pinas's complete absence of offensive wrestling (0.00 TD15) represents a fundamental control differential. This isn't just a statistical advantage—it's a complete stylistic mismatch. Schultz's chain-wrestling approach—clinch entries, single-legs, double-legs, and mat returns—creates minute-winning cycles that accumulate control time. His 40% takedown accuracy combined with relentless pressure means he will keep attempting takedowns until one connects. Once Schultz secures a takedown, the fight fundamentally changes as Pinas has shown zero grappling tools to reverse the position or escape back to striking range.
Schultz's 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes versus Pinas's zero represents a constant threat that changes how the fight unfolds. This isn't just "he has grappling"—this is "he lives by putting you on the ground and finishing you." Schultz's five career submission wins, including recent rear naked chokes and guillotines, show he actively hunts finishes once he achieves dominant positions. Pinas's complete lack of submission attempts (0.0 SubPer15) and zero recorded takedown defense in UFCStats suggests he has no proven ability to defend against Schultz's submission game. Once Schultz gets Pinas's back or secures a dominant position, the submission threat becomes immediate and constant.
The 2.62 strikes absorbed per minute differential (4.74 vs 7.36) creates a damage economy that favors Schultz. While Pinas's 9.62 SLpM output is impressive, his 7.36 SApM absorption rate means he's taking significant damage in return. Schultz's 48% striking defense and lower absorption rate mean fewer clean shots land when he's entering for takedowns. This defensive efficiency is crucial because Schultz doesn't need to win striking exchanges—he just needs to avoid taking fight-ending shots while closing distance. Pinas's high absorption rate suggests he's willing to trade, but against a grappler like Schultz, trading shots creates openings for takedown entries.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Schultz enters straight and eats a clean jab-cross combination from Pinas, he could be hurt before securing a takedown. Pinas's power boxing approach—demonstrated in his DWCS finish of Costa with a textbook 1-2—shows he can end fights with single clean shots. The 30-foot cage gives Pinas space to maintain distance and time his counters. If Schultz becomes hesitant to shoot after taking early damage, the fight could remain standing where Pinas's 9.62 SLpM volume advantage becomes decisive. Schultz's recent TKO loss to ground-and-pound shows he can be finished if he's hurt and trapped, though Pinas's style is more about power shots than ground-and-pound.
If Schultz fails to establish takedowns and the fight remains at extended range, Pinas's volume advantage (9.62 SLpM vs 5.39 SLpM) becomes significant. The large 30-foot cage provides ample space for Pinas to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance. His 50% accuracy combined with high output can overwhelm Schultz's defensive shell, especially if Schultz becomes hesitant to shoot after early intercept attempts. Pinas's ability to rack up significant strike differentials in rounds where he maintains distance could sway judges, particularly in early rounds before Schultz's pressure begins to take effect.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Schultz should utilize feints and level changes to enter safely without eating Pinas's power shots. His 46% striking accuracy suggests he can land setup strikes while maintaining defensive positioning. The key is mixing striking entries with takedown attempts to keep Pinas guessing and prevent him from settling into rhythm. By varying his approach—sometimes feinting shots, sometimes committing—Schultz can exploit Pinas's tendency to overreact to takedown threats, creating opportunities for clean entries. The large 30-foot cage actually helps Schultz here, as he can use angles and feints to close distance without committing to straight-line entries that expose him to Pinas's jab-cross.
Once Schultz secures takedowns, his priority should be establishing dominant positions and hunting submissions. His 1.4 SubPer15 rate shows he actively hunts finishes—rear naked chokes, guillotines, and back takes are his signature moves. This approach maximizes finishing potential while accumulating control time. Schultz can bank minutes through rides and positional control while constantly threatening submissions. Pinas's zero grappling tools shown in UFCStats suggest he has no proven ability to escape or reverse positions, making Schultz's ground game both effective and potentially fight-ending.
🚀 Damian Pinas Key Advantages
Pinas's 9.62 strikes landed per minute is an extremely high output rate that creates significant volume advantages when fights remain standing. This isn't just high volume—it's overwhelming aggression. His ability to maintain this pace with 50% accuracy means he's landing clean shots consistently. The Brazilian's power boxing approach—demonstrated in his DWCS finish where he dropped Costa with a textbook jab-cross—shows he can end fights with single clean shots. His volume becomes particularly dangerous in early rounds when he's fresh and can sustain high output. If Schultz can't establish takedowns, Pinas's volume will rack up significant strike differentials that could sway judges.
Pinas's 79-inch reach advantage (vs Schultz's 77") combined with his power boxing style creates significant striking opportunities at range. The extra 2 inches may seem small, but in a large 30-foot cage, it helps Pinas maintain distance and touch Schultz first with his jab-cross combinations. His ability to keep Schultz at the end of his punches while threatening intercept strikes as Schultz commits to takedowns is crucial. The large cage provides ample space for Pinas to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance, forcing Schultz to cover more ground and commit to longer entries that expose him to counters.
Pinas's 100% finish rate (8 finishes out of 8 wins) shows he's not looking to win rounds—he's looking to end fights. His seven KO/TKO victories demonstrate fight-ending power, and his ability to land clean shots under pressure (as seen in his DWCS finish) shows composure. The Brazilian's power boxing approach means every clean shot has the potential to change the fight. If he can maintain distance and land his jab-cross combinations, he can hurt Schultz before takedowns are secured. His 100% finish rate suggests he knows how to capitalize on opportunities and finish fights when he has opponents hurt.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Schultz's chain-wrestling sequences create a nightmare scenario for Pinas—once Schultz secures takedowns, his ability to chain shots, establish rides, and hunt submissions prevents Pinas from regaining his feet or establishing striking rhythm. Pinas's zero takedown attempts (0.00 TD15) and zero submission attempts (0.0 SubPer15) in UFCStats suggest he has no proven grappling tools to reverse positions or escape. Once on the ground, Pinas's striking output drops to zero while Schultz accumulates control time and hunts submissions. This scenario becomes increasingly likely as Schultz's relentless takedown pressure (5.57 TD15) means he will keep attempting until one connects.
Pinas's 7.36 strikes absorbed per minute is extremely high and suggests he's willing to trade shots. While his 9.62 SLpM output is impressive, his high absorption rate means he's taking significant damage in return. This becomes dangerous against a grappler like Schultz because trading shots creates openings for takedown entries. Pinas's 45% striking defense doesn't compensate for his high absorption rate, meaning clean shots are landing on him consistently. If Schultz can land clean shots while entering for takedowns, Pinas could be hurt before he can establish his volume advantage.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Pinas's optimal strategy involves maintaining distance while threatening intercept strikes. His jab-cross combinations should target Schultz's entries, making takedown attempts more difficult and costly. The Brazilian's +2" reach advantage helps him touch Schultz first, and his 50% accuracy ensures these shots land consistently. When Schultz does commit to shots, Pinas should threaten uppercuts and straight rights to deter entries and create counter opportunities. The key is maintaining distance while staying active enough to score points and prevent Schultz from settling into rhythm or establishing consistent pressure. The large 30-foot cage provides ample space for Pinas to circle and reset.
Pinas's best chance for victory lies in landing fight-ending shots early before Schultz can establish his wrestling rhythm. His 100% finish rate shows he knows how to capitalize on opportunities, and his power boxing approach means every clean shot has the potential to change the fight. The Brazilian should look to capitalize on his early energy advantage by maintaining high output (9.62 SLpM) and landing clean jab-cross combinations before Schultz's pressure begins to take effect. If Pinas can hurt Schultz early with power shots, he can force Schultz to fight from behind and potentially alter the grappler's gameplan. His ability to finish fights (as seen in his DWCS performance) shows he can capitalize when opponents are hurt.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Pinas's power boxing and reach advantage, but fundamentally shifting toward Schultz's wrestling control once takedowns are secured. Pinas's 79-inch reach and power boxing style give him advantages in the early rounds when he can maintain distance and utilize his jab-cross combinations effectively. However, Schultz's relentless takedown pressure (5.57 TD15) and chain-wrestling sequences mean he will keep attempting until one connects. Once Schultz secures a takedown, the large cage becomes irrelevant as the fight moves to the ground where Pinas has shown zero grappling tools. The grappler's ability to control position and hunt submissions transforms the fight from Pinas's preferred striking range into Schultz's dominant ground game.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: wrestling dominance and submission threat. Schultz's 5.57 TD15 vs Pinas's 0.00 represents a complete control differential—Pinas has shown zero offensive wrestling tools. While Pinas's striking volume (9.62 SLpM, 50% accuracy) is impressive, Schultz's damage economy (4.74 SApM vs 7.36) means he absorbs less damage while entering for takedowns. More critically, Schultz's 1.4 SubPer15 versus Pinas's 0.0 shows a constant submission threat that changes how the fight unfolds. Pinas's zero grappling tools shown in UFCStats suggest he has no proven ability to defend against Schultz's submission game. These differentials create a framework where Schultz's control of fight location (ground vs standing) and submission threat consistently outweigh Pinas's striking output.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first-layer takedown defense vs relentless wrestling pressure, power shots vs safe entries, and ground control vs zero grappling tools. Pinas's unknown takedown defense (0% in UFCStats typically means untested) faces Schultz's relentless 5.57 TD15 rate—he will keep attempting until one connects. Pinas's power boxing (jab-cross combinations) represents his most dangerous weapons against Schultz's entries, but Schultz's ability to vary his approach and mix feints with takedowns makes these counters less predictable. Once the fight hits the ground, Pinas's zero grappling tools (0.00 TD15, 0.0 SubPer15) suggest he has no proven ability to escape or reverse positions, making Schultz's ground game both effective and potentially fight-ending through submissions or ground-and-pound.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Wes Schultz by Submission (38% probability), achieved through early takedown success, dominant ground control, and active submission hunting. Schultz's submission threat (1.4 SubPer15) combined with Pinas's zero grappling tools creates a high-probability finishing scenario. Schultz's KO/TKO path (20%) becomes viable if his ground-and-pound accumulates damage through rides and positional control, particularly if Pinas gives up his back in scrambles. Schultz's decision path (10%) requires consistent takedown success and control time accumulation over three rounds. Pinas's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (26%) via power shots (jab-cross) as Schultz commits to takedown attempts. Pinas's decision path (5%) requires maintaining extended range control throughout three rounds—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely once Schultz secures his first takedown and establishes ground control.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Wes Schultz
Primary path via fence control and rides
Attritional GNP and accumulative pressure
Back-takes off rides create RNC chances
💥Outcome Distribution - Damian Pinas
Best lane via intercepts and counters
Requires extended range control in big cage
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Damian Pinas
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest power shot KO equity before takedowns are secured.
- • Distance control: Jab-cross combinations to punish entries and maintain range.
- • Early power shots: Land clean shots before Schultz establishes wrestling rhythm.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Wes Schultz
- • Takedown chains: Relentless pressure (5.57 TD15) until one connects.
- • Submission hunting: Active submission threat (1.4 SubPer15) once ground control is established.
- • Ground control: Dominant positions and submission attempts accumulate control time.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via wrestling dominance and submission threat
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive takedown volume edge (5.57 vs 0.00 TD15)
- • Submission threat (1.4 vs 0.0 SubPer15)
- • Lower SApM and better damage economy
- • Pinas has zero proven grappling tools
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Pinas's power boxing can end fights early
- • Large cage extends early range time
- • Pinas's high-volume output (9.62 SLpM)
🏁Executive Summary
Wes Schultz's wrestling dominance and submission threat should control fight location once takedowns are secured, while Damian Pinas's best equity centers on early power shots (jab-cross) and maintaining distance before Schultz's pressure takes hold. The statistical differentials heavily favor Schultz: his 5.57 TD15 vs Pinas's 0.00 creates a complete control differential, while his 1.4 SubPer15 vs Pinas's 0.0 shows a constant submission threat. Schultz's 4.74 SApM vs Pinas's 7.36 represents superior damage economy, meaning he absorbs less damage while entering for takedowns. Pinas's zero grappling tools shown in UFCStats (0.00 TD15, 0.0 SubPer15) suggest he has no proven ability to defend against Schultz's ground game. However, Pinas's power boxing (9.62 SLpM, 100% finish rate) means he can end fights with single clean shots if Schultz enters carelessly.
Prediction: Schultz by Submission most likely (38% probability) through early takedown success and active submission hunting; Schultz by KO/TKO (20%) if ground-and-pound accumulates damage; Schultz by Decision (10%) through consistent control time. Pinas's upset lane is early KO/TKO (26%) via power shots as Schultz commits to takedown attempts. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Pinas can land fight-ending shots before Schultz secures his first takedown and establishes ground control where Pinas has shown zero grappling tools.