Jose Medina vs Ryan Gandra
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Almabayev
Saturday, February 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Jose Medina
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Ryan Gandra
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jose Medina
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Duško Todorović | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (Round 1, 4:21) |
| 2025-03-29 | Ateba Gautier | L | KO/TKO - Knee (Round 1, 3:32) |
| 2024-08-24 | Zach Reese | L | Decision - Unanimous (3 Rounds, ) |
| 2023-10-03 | Magomed Gadzhiyasulov | L | Decision - Unanimous (3 Rounds, ) |
| 2023-03-31 | Fernando Filho | W | Decision - Split (3 Rounds, ) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ryan Gandra
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-26 | Trent Miller | W | KO/TKO - Punches (Round 1, 2:51) |
| 2024-11-22 | Vladimir Calvo | W | KO/TKO - Right Hook (Round 1, 2:28) |
| 2023-11-03 | Alessandro Gambulino | W | KO/TKO (Round 2, 2:38) |
| 2023-09-30 | Leonardo Bezerra | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (Round 1, 2:30) |
| 2023-04-15 | Luiz Fabiano | W | Decision - Unanimous (3 Rounds, ) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Jose Medina Key Advantages
Medina's early finishing ability represents his primary path to victory. With 9 of his 11 career wins coming in Round 1, he possesses explosive knockout power that can end fights instantly. His 8 KO/TKO victories demonstrate significant finishing ability, particularly when he can impose his pressure and create chaotic exchanges. However, his 46% striking defense and 5.07 strikes absorbed per minute suggest vulnerability when opponents can maintain distance and counter effectively. Medina's best chance lies in creating early chaos and landing fight-ending shots before Gandra can establish his rhythm and volume advantage.
Medina's finishing rate of 90.9% (10 finishes out of 11 wins) demonstrates his ability to end fights decisively when he gains momentum. His 8 KO/TKO victories show he possesses legitimate knockout power, particularly in early rounds when he's fresh and can impose his pressure. However, his defensive vulnerabilities (46% StrDef, 5.07 SApM) create a dangerous dynamic where he must land first or risk accumulating significant damage. Medina's path to victory requires creating early chaos and capitalizing on openings before Gandra's superior volume and defense can take effect.
Medina's Round 1 dominance (9 of 11 wins in R1) shows his explosive early-round capability. His average fight duration of 6:45 reflects his tendency to either finish early or struggle as fights progress. This creates a clear window of opportunity in the opening minutes where his power and pressure are most dangerous. However, his recent 4-fight losing streak suggests opponents have found ways to survive his early onslaught and capitalize on his defensive weaknesses as fights extend beyond the first round.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Gandra's superior striking volume (11.23 SLpM vs 2.16) and accuracy (51% vs 36%) create a significant advantage that compounds over three rounds. His 79% striking defense and 2.11 strikes absorbed per minute demonstrate elite defensive capabilities that neutralize Medina's power threat. If Gandra can maintain distance and avoid early exchanges, his volume advantage becomes overwhelming, especially as Medina's defensive weaknesses (46% StrDef) allow clean shots to land consistently throughout the fight.
If Medina cannot land fight-ending shots in Round 1, Gandra's superior technical striking and volume control become decisive. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Gandra to maintain distance, utilize his jab, and accumulate strikes while avoiding Medina's power shots. Gandra's 79% defense means he can effectively neutralize Medina's offense while landing clean counters. As the fight progresses beyond Round 1, Medina's finishing window closes significantly, and Gandra's technical advantages become increasingly apparent in judges' scoring.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Medina must create early chaos and pressure to maximize his Round 1 knockout potential. His best approach involves aggressive forward pressure, closing distance quickly, and creating exchanges where his power can land. He should avoid extended range exchanges where Gandra's superior volume and accuracy dominate. Medina needs to force Gandra into defensive positions early, capitalize on any openings, and look to finish before the fight settles into a technical striking match where Gandra's advantages compound.
Medina's gameplan centers on creating explosive moments in the opening minutes. He should look to cut off the cage, force exchanges in the pocket, and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Gandra. His 9 Round 1 victories show he knows how to finish fights quickly when opportunities present themselves. However, if he cannot secure an early finish, his defensive vulnerabilities become increasingly problematic as Gandra's volume and accuracy accumulate damage over three rounds.
🚀 Ryan Gandra Key Advantages
Gandra's superior striking volume (11.23 SLpM vs 2.16) and accuracy (51% vs 36%) create a massive advantage in technical striking exchanges. His 79% striking defense demonstrates elite defensive capabilities that neutralize Medina's power threat effectively. Gandra's ability to maintain high output while absorbing minimal damage (2.11 SApM vs Medina's 5.07) creates a sustainable advantage that compounds over three rounds. In the 30-foot cage, Gandra can utilize the extra space to maintain distance, control the pace, and accumulate strikes while avoiding Medina's early knockout attempts.
Gandra's 11.23 SLpM output represents exceptional striking volume that overwhelms opponents through accumulation. His 51% accuracy combined with this high output means he lands significantly more clean strikes per minute than Medina. This volume advantage becomes decisive as fights progress, with Gandra's consistent output accumulating damage while his 79% defense prevents Medina from landing equivalent offense. The Brazilian's ability to maintain this pace over three rounds creates a clear path to victory through technical dominance and accumulated damage.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Medina's defensive vulnerabilities (46% StrDef, 5.07 SApM) create significant risk when facing Gandra's high-volume offense. If Gandra can maintain distance and avoid early exchanges, his 11.23 SLpM output combined with 51% accuracy means he'll land clean strikes consistently while Medina struggles to defend effectively. Medina's porous defense allows Gandra to accumulate damage throughout the fight, making it increasingly difficult for Medina to mount effective offense as the rounds progress.
If Gandra becomes overly aggressive and enters exchanges recklessly, Medina's power becomes a legitimate threat. Medina's 9 Round 1 victories show he can finish fights instantly when opportunities present themselves. Gandra must maintain discipline, avoid unnecessary exchanges, and trust his superior technical skills and volume advantage. Any moment where Gandra abandons his gameplan and engages in wild exchanges plays into Medina's strengths and increases the risk of an early knockout.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Gandra's optimal strategy involves maintaining distance and utilizing his superior volume and accuracy. His jab and straight punches should control range while his 79% defense neutralizes Medina's power shots. Gandra should avoid extended exchanges in the pocket where Medina's power becomes dangerous, instead using angles and footwork to create openings for clean strikes. The key is maintaining discipline, trusting his technical advantages, and allowing his volume and accuracy to accumulate damage over three rounds while avoiding Medina's early knockout window.
Gandra should establish his rhythm early by utilizing his jab and maintaining distance. His 11.23 SLpM output allows him to accumulate strikes consistently while his 79% defense prevents Medina from landing equivalent offense. As the fight progresses beyond Round 1, Gandra's technical advantages become increasingly apparent, with his volume and accuracy creating clear round-winning performances. The key is surviving Medina's early power threat and allowing his superior skills to dominate as the fight extends.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—providing Gandra with ample space to maintain distance and utilize his superior technical striking, while giving Medina room to cut angles and create pressure. Gandra's equal reach (74") combined with his superior height (6'1" vs 6'0") and elite defense (79% StrDef) allows him to control range effectively and neutralize Medina's power threat. The large cage space enables Gandra to utilize his 11.23 SLpM volume advantage while maintaining defensive positioning. However, Medina's early knockout threat (9 R1 wins) means he can end the fight instantly if he can close distance and land clean power shots. The cage dynamics favor Gandra's technical approach, but Medina's power creates constant danger in the opening minutes.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a massive differential in striking volume and defense that heavily favors Gandra. Gandra's 11.23 SLpM vs Medina's 2.16 represents a 5.2x volume advantage that fundamentally alters fight dynamics. Combined with Gandra's superior accuracy (51% vs 36%) and elite defense (79% StrDef vs 46%), this creates an overwhelming technical advantage. Medina's defensive vulnerabilities (5.07 SApM vs Gandra's 2.11) mean he absorbs significantly more damage while landing fewer strikes. These differentials create a scoring framework where Gandra's volume, accuracy, and defensive efficiency consistently dominate Medina's early power threat in judges' eyes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: early knockout window vs technical accumulation, defensive efficiency vs power threat, and volume control vs finishing ability. Medina's Round 1 knockout threat (9 of 11 wins in R1) represents his primary path to victory, requiring him to land fight-ending shots before Gandra's technical advantages compound. Gandra's elite defense (79% StrDef) and superior volume (11.23 SLpM) create a sustainable advantage that becomes increasingly decisive as fights extend beyond Round 1. The 30-foot cage provides Gandra with space to maintain distance and utilize his technical advantages, while Medina must cut off angles and create early exchanges where his power can land.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO (52% probability), achieved through superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive efficiency that accumulates damage over three rounds. Gandra's decision path (28%) becomes viable if he maintains distance control and utilizes his technical advantages without forcing exchanges. Medina's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (12%) via power shots in Round 1 before Gandra's volume and defense take effect. Medina's decision path (4%) requires surviving Gandra's volume while landing enough offense to sway judges—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely given the massive striking differentials favoring Gandra.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jose Medina
Early knockout threat in Round 1
Unlikely path given recent form
Low submission rate in recent fights
💥Outcome Distribution - Ryan Gandra
High-volume striking with superior accuracy
Volume and defense accumulate rounds
Low submission rate historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Jose Medina
- • First 5 minutes: Highest knockout equity in Round 1.
- • Cage cutting: Force exchanges in pocket where power can land.
- • Early pressure: Create chaos before Gandra establishes rhythm.
🎯Technical Accumulation - Ryan Gandra
- • Volume control: Maintain 11.23 SLpM output and accumulate strikes.
- • Defensive discipline: Utilize 79% defense to neutralize power threat.
- • Distance management: Control range and allow technical advantages to compound.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via volume, accuracy, and defense differentials
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive striking volume edge (11.23 vs 2.16 SLpM)
- • Superior accuracy (51% vs 36%) and elite defense (79% vs 46%)
- • Lower SApM (2.11 vs 5.07) demonstrates better damage economy
- • Technical advantages compound over three rounds
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Medina's Round 1 knockout power (9 of 11 wins in R1)
- • Early exchanges create danger before technical advantages compound
- • Defensive lapses could allow Medina's power shots to land
🏁Executive Summary
Ryan Gandra's superior technical striking creates a clear path to victory through volume, accuracy, and defensive efficiency. His 11.23 SLpM vs Medina's 2.16 represents a 5.2x volume advantage, while his 51% accuracy vs Medina's 36% and 79% defense vs Medina's 46% create overwhelming technical differentials. Gandra's ability to maintain high output while absorbing minimal damage (2.11 SApM vs Medina's 5.07) demonstrates superior fight management. However, Medina's early knockout threat (9 of 11 wins in Round 1) creates constant danger in the opening minutes. The 30-foot cage provides Gandra with space to utilize his technical advantages, but Medina's power can end the fight instantly if he can close distance and land clean shots.
Prediction: Gandra by KO/TKO most likely (52% probability) through superior striking volume and accuracy that accumulates damage over three rounds; Gandra by Decision (28%) if he maintains distance control throughout. Medina's upset lane is early KO/TKO (12%) via power shots in Round 1 before Gandra's technical advantages compound. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Medina can land fight-ending shots in the opening minutes before Gandra's volume and defense become decisive factors.