Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Almabayev
Saturday, February 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Imanol Rodriguez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Kevin Borjas
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Imanol Rodriguez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-07 | Roque Conceição | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 2:12) |
| 2024-09-22 | Alberto Trujillo | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:27) |
| 2024-07-12 | Tyrell Hill | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:50) |
| 2024-02-24 | Emmanuel Berumen | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:30) |
| 2023-06-30 | Uziel Gomez | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:51) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Kevin Borjas
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Sumudaerji | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-29 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Alessandro Costa | L | TKO - Ground Strikes (R2, 1:35) |
| 2023-11-11 | Joshua Van | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-08 | Victor Dias | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Imanol Rodriguez Key Advantages
Rodriguez's 9.09 strikes per minute vs Borjas's 4.19 represents a massive 2.17x volume differential that fundamentally shifts fight control. The Spaniard's pressure-forward approach—combining high-output combinations with 58% accuracy—creates overwhelming offensive cycles that accumulate damage quickly. His ability to maintain this pace while landing clean shots (58% accuracy vs Borjas's 44%) means Rodriguez can rack up significant strike differentials in every exchange. This volume advantage becomes particularly dangerous in early rounds when Rodriguez is fresh and can sustain his high output without fatigue, overwhelming Borjas before the Peruvian can establish his own rhythm.
The 3.01 strikes absorbed per minute differential (2.73 vs 5.74) creates a damage economy that heavily favors Rodriguez in scoring optics. While Borjas absorbs 5.74 SApM with only 49% striking defense, Rodriguez's 60% defense and low absorption rate (2.73 SApM) mean significantly fewer clean shots land. This defensive efficiency compounds over three rounds—Rodriguez maintains his high-volume pace without accumulating damage, while Borjas's high-absorption approach leaves him vulnerable to counters and accumulative damage. The Spaniard's ability to minimize damage while maximizing offensive output creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially as fights progress where damage accumulation becomes visually apparent.
Rodriguez's perfect 100% finish rate with 67% of wins occurring in Round 1 demonstrates exceptional early fight lethality. His pressure-forward approach creates fight-ending opportunities quickly—combining high-volume striking (9.09 SLpM) with 58% accuracy means Rodriguez lands clean shots consistently, overwhelming opponents before they can establish their own rhythm. The Spaniard's ability to maintain this pace while executing finishing sequences shows efficient energy management—he doesn't need to pace himself because he closes fights early. This early finish threat becomes particularly dangerous against Borjas, whose high absorption rate (5.74 SApM) and lower defense (49%) make him vulnerable to Rodriguez's pressure volume from the opening bell.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Borjas's 69-inch reach advantage (vs Rodriguez's 67") combined with his 5'5" height creates significant striking opportunities at range. The Peruvian's ability to maintain distance while threatening intercept strikes could disrupt Rodriguez's pressure-forward approach. If Borjas can utilize his reach effectively and keep Rodriguez at extended range, his 4.19 SLpM output combined with 44% accuracy could create problems. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Borjas to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance, potentially preventing Rodriguez from establishing his high-volume pressure game.
Rodriguez's perfect finish rate means he has never been tested in Round 3, creating uncertainty about his cardio sustainability over extended periods. His average fight duration of 2:26 suggests he closes fights early, but if Borjas can survive the early onslaught and force Rodriguez into deeper waters, the Spaniard's high-volume approach (9.09 SLpM) may become difficult to sustain. Borjas's UFC experience includes multiple decisions, suggesting he can maintain pace over three rounds, potentially exploiting Rodriguez's untested late-round cardio if the fight extends beyond the first two rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Rodriguez should utilize his 9.09 SLpM output from the opening bell, overwhelming Borjas with high-volume combinations. His 58% striking accuracy suggests he can land clean shots consistently while maintaining defensive positioning. The Spaniard's ability to mix pressure forward movement with accurate striking keeps Borjas guessing and prevents him from settling into rhythm. By establishing early momentum and potentially scoring knockdowns or significant damage, Rodriguez can force Borjas to fight from behind and potentially close the fight early, capitalizing on his perfect finish rate.
Rodriguez's priority should be closing distance and neutralizing Borjas's reach advantage. His pressure-forward approach emphasizes cutting off angles and forcing exchanges in the pocket where his volume advantage becomes most effective. The Spaniard's 60% striking defense combined with his low absorption rate (2.73 SApM) means he can safely enter Borjas's range and engage in high-volume exchanges. By maintaining forward pressure and preventing Borjas from establishing extended range control, Rodriguez can maximize his striking efficiency and create fight-ending opportunities through accumulative damage.
🚀 Kevin Borjas Key Advantages
Borjas's 69-inch reach advantage (vs Rodriguez's 67") combined with his 5'5" height creates significant striking opportunities at range. His arsenal includes long jabs, straight punches, and intercept strikes that can deter Rodriguez's pressure-forward approach while scoring points. The Peruvian's ability to maintain distance and vary his attack angles makes him difficult to read, while his 44% striking accuracy ensures these long weapons land with consistency. In the 30-foot cage, Borjas can maintain this preferred distance longer, forcing Rodriguez to cover more ground and commit to longer entries that expose him to counters.
Borjas's 4 UFC fights (1-3 record) provide valuable experience in the octagon environment that Rodriguez lacks. The Peruvian has faced UFC-level competition and understands the pace, pressure, and decision-making required at this level. His experience includes multiple decisions, suggesting he can maintain pace over three rounds and adapt to different fight scenarios. This UFC experience becomes particularly valuable if the fight extends beyond the early rounds, where Borjas's familiarity with championship rounds could give him an edge over Rodriguez, who has never been tested in Round 3.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Rodriguez's 9.09 SLpM output creates a nightmare scenario for Borjas—once the Spaniard establishes his pressure-forward rhythm, his ability to maintain high volume while landing clean shots (58% accuracy) prevents Borjas from regaining his feet or establishing striking rhythm. The Peruvian's 49% striking defense and high absorption rate (5.74 SApM) suggest he struggles against high-volume pressure, making him vulnerable to Rodriguez's overwhelming offensive cycles. Once Rodriguez establishes control, Borjas's striking output drops significantly while Rodriguez accumulates damage and scoring opportunities. This scenario becomes increasingly likely as the fight progresses and Borjas's defense begins to break down under Rodriguez's pressure.
Borjas's 5.74 SApM combined with 49% striking defense creates a dangerous combination against Rodriguez's high-volume approach. The Peruvian absorbs significantly more damage than Rodriguez (2.73 SApM), making him vulnerable to accumulative damage and potential fight-ending sequences. Borjas's tendency to absorb high volumes of strikes, combined with Rodriguez's 58% accuracy and 9.09 SLpM output, creates a scenario where Borjas becomes increasingly vulnerable to both accumulative damage and potential knockdowns as the fight progresses. This high absorption rate becomes particularly dangerous in early rounds when Rodriguez is fresh and can sustain his high output without fatigue.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Borjas's optimal strategy involves maintaining perimeter control while utilizing his 2-inch reach advantage. His long jabs and straight punches should target Rodriguez's pressure entries, making it difficult for the Spaniard to establish his high-volume rhythm. The Peruvian's ability to maintain distance and vary his attack angles allows him to keep Rodriguez guessing. When Rodriguez commits to pressure entries, Borjas should threaten intercept strikes and counters to deter entries and create counter opportunities. The key is maintaining distance while staying active enough to score points and prevent Rodriguez from settling into rhythm or establishing consistent pressure.
Borjas's best chance for victory lies in surviving Rodriguez's early pressure and extending the fight into deeper waters. The Peruvian should look to capitalize on his UFC experience and proven ability to go three rounds by maintaining defensive positioning and avoiding early fight-ending sequences. His 4.19 SLpM output becomes more effective if he can survive Rodriguez's early onslaught and force the Spaniard into untested Round 3 territory. By extending the fight and potentially exploiting Rodriguez's untested cardio, Borjas can create opportunities to win rounds through volume control and experience-based decision making.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Borjas's range weapons and movement, but potentially shifting toward Rodriguez's pressure as the fight progresses. Borjas's 69-inch reach and 5'5" height give him significant advantages in the early rounds when he can maintain distance and utilize his long jabs and straight punches effectively. However, Rodriguez's relentless pressure and high-volume striking sequences gradually compress the available space, forcing Borjas into increasingly uncomfortable positions. The Spaniard's ability to cut off angles and force exchanges in the pocket transforms the cage from Borjas's ally into Rodriguez's weapon, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: striking volume/efficiency and damage economy. Rodriguez's 9.09 SLpM vs Borjas's 4.19 represents a 2.17x differential that fundamentally alters fight control and scoring dynamics. While Borjas's striking moments (4.19 SLpM, 44% accuracy) create moderate volume, Rodriguez's damage economy (2.73 SApM vs 5.74) means he absorbs significantly less damage while maintaining overwhelming offensive output. The Spaniard's 60% striking defense combined with his high-volume threat forces Borjas into uncomfortable exchanges where his lower-volume approach becomes less effective. These differentials create a scoring framework where Rodriguez's volume control and damage efficiency consistently outweigh Borjas's striking output in judges' eyes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: range control vs pressure volume, early finish threat vs survival, and late-round pace durability. Borjas's 2-inch reach advantage suggests he can maintain distance initially, but Rodriguez's pressure-forward approach and high volume typically break through over time. The Peruvian's range weapons (long jabs, straight punches) represent his most dangerous tools against Rodriguez's entries, but the Spaniard's ability to maintain high volume (9.09 SLpM) and cut off angles makes these counters less effective. As the fight progresses, Rodriguez's superior striking efficiency (58% accuracy vs 44%) becomes increasingly decisive, especially when combined with his damage economy that forces Borjas to absorb significantly more strikes while landing fewer.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Imanol Rodriguez by KO/TKO (44% probability), achieved through consistent pressure volume, accumulative damage, and superior striking efficiency over three rounds. Rodriguez's decision path (10%) becomes viable if his high-volume approach accumulates damage through consistent pressure and clean shots, particularly if Borjas survives the early onslaught. Borjas's upset lane centers on decision (24%) via range control and UFC experience if he can survive Rodriguez's early pressure and extend the fight into untested territory. The Peruvian's KO/TKO path (12%) requires early intercept strikes or counters as Rodriguez commits to pressure entries—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely as Rodriguez's volume escalates and the cage space compresses.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 44% | Fair: +127
GOOD VALUE
Model: 24% | Fair: +317
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 40% | Fair: +150
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early finish volatility – Underprices Rodriguez's striking efficiency advantage.
- • Undervalues striking differential – High volume and accuracy gap drives fight control.
- • UFC experience premium – Borjas' experience may be overvalued vs. Rodriguez's efficiency.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Imanol Rodriguez
Pressure volume and striking efficiency
RNC opportunities from pressure
Volume control if fight extends
💥Outcome Distribution - Kevin Borjas
Range control and UFC experience
Early intercept strikes and range tools
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Kevin Borjas
- • First 3–5 minutes: Highest range control equity before pressure builds.
- • Perimeter control: Long jabs + straight punches to stall entries.
- • Survive early: Defensive positioning; avoid early finish sequences.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Imanol Rodriguez
- • Pressure volume: High-output combinations overwhelm defense.
- • Damage economy: Maintain volume while minimizing absorption.
- • Early finish: Accumulative damage creates fight-ending opportunities.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via striking volume and superior damage economy
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant striking volume edge (9.09 vs 4.19 SLpM)
- • Lower SApM and better damage economy
- • Higher accuracy (58% vs 44%) creates clean shots
- • Perfect finish rate demonstrates early fight lethality
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Range control vs pressure entries
- • Untested Round 3 cardio for Rodriguez
- • Borjas's UFC experience advantage
🏁Executive Summary
Imanol Rodriguez's systematic approach to fight control should steadily compress the 30-foot octagon space and bank safe minutes through high-volume pressure sequences, while Kevin Borjas's best equity centers on range control and UFC experience before the Spaniard's pressure takes hold. The statistical differentials heavily favor Rodriguez: his 9.09 SLpM vs Borjas's 4.19 creates a 2.17x striking volume advantage, while his 2.73 SApM vs Borjas's 5.74 represents superior damage economy that compounds over three rounds. Rodriguez's 2:26 average fight duration with 67% of wins in Round 1 demonstrates exceptional early fight lethality, while Borjas's 8:45 duration suggests he can extend fights but struggles against high-volume pressure. The Spaniard's ability to minimize damage while maximizing offensive output creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially as fights progress where damage accumulation becomes visually apparent.
Prediction: Rodriguez by KO/TKO most likely (44% probability) through consistent pressure volume and accumulative damage; Borjas's upset lane is decision (24%) via range control and UFC experience if he can survive Rodriguez's early pressure and extend the fight into untested territory. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Borjas can capitalize on his early range advantages before Rodriguez's pressure volume and superior striking efficiency become decisive factors.