Macy Chiasson vs Ailin Perez
Women's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Almabayev
Saturday, February 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Macy Chiasson
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Ailin Perez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Macy Chiasson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Yana Santos | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-05-31 | Ketlen Vieira | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Mayra Bueno Silva | W | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R2, 1:58) |
| 2024-03-16 | Pannie Kianzad | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:54) |
| 2022-09-10 | Irene Aldana | L | TKO - Upkick (R3, 2:21) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ailin Perez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Karol Rosa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-28 | Darya Zheleznyakova | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R1, 3:52) |
| 2024-06-01 | Joselyne Edwards | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-18 | Lucie Pudilová | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-15 | Ashlee Evans-Smith | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (49.2 vs 60.8) and Grappling Composite (37.7 vs 50.4). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Macy Chiasson Key Advantages
Chiasson's significant size advantage (5'11" vs 5'5", 72" vs 66" reach) creates substantial striking opportunities at range. Her ability to maintain distance with jabs, teeps, and long-range kicks allows her to control the pace and prevent Perez from closing distance effectively. The 30-foot cage amplifies this advantage, giving Chiasson more space to reset and maintain her preferred striking range. Her 3.50 SLpM output, while not elite, becomes more effective when combined with her reach advantage, allowing her to land clean shots while staying out of Perez's takedown range.
When Chiasson closes distance, her clinch work with elbows represents her most dangerous short-range weapon. Her ability to land damaging strikes in the clinch while using her size to control positioning creates scoring opportunities that can sway judges. If Perez fails to secure takedowns and the fight enters clinch exchanges, Chiasson's height and reach advantage allows her to land clean elbows and short punches while controlling the position. This becomes particularly important if Perez's takedown attempts stall and she's forced to engage in close-quarters striking exchanges.
Chiasson's submission game (0.4 SubPer15 vs Perez's 0.2) provides a dangerous counter to Perez's takedown attempts. Her ability to secure back takes and finish with rear naked chokes (as seen vs Kianzad) creates a significant threat if Perez fails to maintain top control. Chiasson's 72% takedown defense suggests she can stuff initial attempts, and if scrambles occur, her submission threat forces Perez to fight more conservatively. This defensive submission ability becomes crucial in preventing Perez from establishing sustained ground control and creates opportunities for Chiasson to reverse positions and find finishing sequences.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Perez's relentless takedown pressure (4.68 TD15 vs Chiasson's 2.07) creates a constant threat that can overwhelm Chiasson's defensive capabilities. The Argentine's ability to chain multiple takedown attempts and maintain pressure even after initial defenses can wear down Chiasson's ability to maintain distance. If Perez successfully closes the gap and secures takedowns, Chiasson's striking advantage becomes nullified. Perez's 46% takedown accuracy combined with her persistence means that even if Chiasson stuffs initial attempts, the constant pressure can eventually break through, especially as fatigue sets in during later rounds.
If Chiasson fails to maintain distance and Perez successfully closes the gap repeatedly, the fight becomes a grappling contest where Perez holds significant advantages. Chiasson's 45% striking defense and 2.86 SApM suggest she can be hit when opponents get inside, and Perez's superior takedown game means she can convert those close-range exchanges into takedown opportunities. Once on the ground, Perez's control time and submission threat (arm triangle, head-and-arm) become decisive factors. Chiasson's recent losses to Santos and Vieira both came via decision, suggesting that when opponents can consistently control her, she struggles to create enough offense to sway judges.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Chiasson should prioritize maintaining distance with jabs, front kicks, and lateral movement to prevent Perez from closing the gap. Her 72-inch reach advantage allows her to land clean shots while staying outside Perez's takedown range. When Perez does attempt entries, Chiasson should use her 72% takedown defense to stuff initial attempts and immediately reset to distance. Her ability to land damaging strikes at range (3.50 SLpM, 46% accuracy) can accumulate points while forcing Perez to work harder to close distance, potentially draining her energy reserves over three rounds.
If scrambles occur and Chiasson finds herself in advantageous positions, she should prioritize securing back takes and looking for rear naked choke opportunities. Her submission game (0.4 SubPer15) provides a finishing threat that can end the fight quickly if Perez makes positioning mistakes. Chiasson's ability to transition from defensive positions to offensive submission attempts (as demonstrated vs Kianzad) creates a dangerous counter to Perez's grappling approach. However, Chiasson should avoid extended ground exchanges where Perez can establish control, instead looking to create scrambles that lead to submission opportunities or returns to the feet.
🚀 Ailin Perez Key Advantages
Perez's 4.68 takedowns per 15min vs Chiasson's 2.07 represents a 2.26x differential that creates constant pressure and control opportunities. Her ability to chain multiple takedown attempts and maintain pressure even after initial defenses can overwhelm Chiasson's 72% takedown defense. The Argentine's 46% takedown accuracy combined with her persistence means that even if Chiasson stuffs initial attempts, the constant pressure can eventually break through. Once on the ground, Perez's control time and submission threat (arm triangle, head-and-arm) become decisive factors in scoring rounds.
Perez's superior striking defense (55% vs Chiasson's 45%) combined with her lower absorption rate (1.79 SApM vs 2.86) creates a significant defensive advantage. Her ability to avoid damage while maintaining offensive pressure allows her to win rounds through control time and takedowns without accumulating significant damage. This defensive efficiency becomes crucial in close rounds where judges look for visible damage and control. Perez's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with her takedown pressure.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Chiasson's size and reach advantage creates a difficult scenario for Perez if the American can maintain distance effectively. Chiasson's 72-inch reach allows her to land clean shots while staying outside Perez's takedown range, and her ability to reset and maintain distance can prevent Perez from closing the gap. If Chiasson successfully keeps the fight at extended range, Perez's takedown game becomes ineffective and Chiasson can accumulate significant strike differentials. The 30-foot cage amplifies this advantage, giving Chiasson more space to circle and reset after each exchange.
If Chiasson successfully maintains distance and prevents Perez from securing takedowns, the fight becomes a striking contest where Chiasson's size advantage becomes decisive. Perez's 66% takedown defense suggests she can be taken down if Chiasson decides to reverse wrestle, and if scrambles occur, Chiasson's submission threat (0.4 SubPer15) creates finishing opportunities. Additionally, Chiasson's ability to land damaging strikes at range can open cuts or create visible damage that sways judges, especially if Perez fails to secure meaningful control time.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Perez's optimal strategy involves constant pressure and takedown attempts to prevent Chiasson from establishing her preferred striking range. Her jab and low kicks should target Chiasson's base and mobility, creating openings for level changes and clinch entries. The Argentine's ability to chain multiple takedown attempts means that even if Chiasson stuffs initial attempts, Perez can continue pressing and eventually secure takedowns. Once on the ground, Perez should prioritize control time and look for submission opportunities (arm triangle, head-and-arm) when Chiasson makes positioning mistakes. The key is maintaining constant pressure to prevent Chiasson from settling into rhythm and establishing her striking range.
Perez's best chance for victory lies in establishing early takedown pressure and control time in the first round. Her ability to secure takedowns early can force Chiasson to fight from behind and alter the American's gameplan. Perez should look to capitalize on her superior takedown rate (4.68 TD15) by maintaining constant pressure and chain-wrestling sequences that eventually break through Chiasson's defense. Once on the ground, Perez's control time and submission threat create scoring opportunities that judges consistently reward. By establishing early momentum through takedowns and control, Perez can force Chiasson to become more aggressive, creating openings for additional takedowns and submission attempts.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Chiasson's size and reach advantages, but gradually shifting toward Perez's takedown pressure as the fight progresses. Chiasson's 72-inch reach and 5'11" height give her significant advantages in the early rounds when she can maintain distance and utilize her jabs, front kicks, and long-range strikes effectively. However, Perez's relentless takedown pressure and chain-wrestling sequences gradually compress the available space, forcing Chiasson into increasingly uncomfortable positions. The Argentine's ability to cut off angles and force exchanges at the fence transforms the cage from Chiasson's ally into Perez's weapon, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: takedown pressure and defensive efficiency. Perez's 4.68 TD15 vs Chiasson's 2.07 represents a 2.26x differential that fundamentally alters fight control and scoring dynamics. While Chiasson's size advantage (72" reach vs 66") creates striking opportunities, Perez's defensive efficiency (55% StrDef, 1.79 SApM vs Chiasson's 45% StrDef, 2.86 SApM) means she absorbs significantly less damage while maintaining offensive pressure. The Argentine's superior takedown rate combined with her defensive advantage forces Chiasson into uncomfortable exchanges where her size advantage becomes less effective. These differentials create a scoring framework where Perez's control time and defensive efficiency consistently outweigh Chiasson's striking output in judges' eyes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: Chiasson's distance control vs Perez's takedown pressure, Perez's defensive efficiency vs Chiasson's striking volume, and control time accumulation vs visible damage. Chiasson's 72% takedown defense suggests she can stuff initial attempts, but Perez's persistence and chain-wrestling ability typically break through over time. The American's size and reach advantages represent her most dangerous tools against Perez's entries, but the Argentine's ability to maintain constant pressure and chain multiple takedown attempts makes distance control less predictable. As the fight progresses, Perez's superior takedown rate and defensive efficiency become increasingly decisive, especially when combined with her control time that forces Chiasson to expend energy defending takedowns and fighting off her back.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Ailin Perez by Decision (42% probability), achieved through consistent takedown pressure, control time accumulation, and superior defensive efficiency over three rounds. Perez's Submission path (15%) becomes viable if she secures dominant positions and finds arm triangle or head-and-arm opportunities, particularly when Chiasson makes positioning mistakes. Chiasson's upset lane centers on Decision (17%) via maintaining distance and accumulating strike differentials, or KO/TKO (10%) via elbows and damage at close range. The American's submission path (8%) requires securing back takes and rear naked choke opportunities in scrambles—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely as Perez's pressure escalates and the cage space compresses.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 42% | Fair: +138
GOOD VALUE
Model: 15% | Fair: +567
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 59% | Fair: +144
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights size advantage – Underprices takedown pressure and control time.
- • Undervalues defensive efficiency – Perez's superior StrDef and lower SApM differential drives scoring optics.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps Chiasson early, but takedown pressure erodes distance control.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Macy Chiasson
Long-range kickboxing and distance control
Elbows and damage at close range
Back takes and RNC in scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Ailin Perez
Control time and takedown pressure
Arm triangle and head-and-arm submissions
Ground-and-pound accumulation
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Macy Chiasson
- • First 5 minutes: Highest distance control equity.
- • Range control: Jabs + front kicks to prevent entries.
- • Clinch offense: Elbows and damage; avoid extended ground exchanges.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Ailin Perez
- • Chain takedowns: Multiple attempts bank control and sap energy.
- • Defensive efficiency: Minimize damage while maximizing control.
- • Late rounds: Control time edges decision likelihood.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via takedown pressure and superior defense
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant takedown volume edge (4.68 vs 2.07 TD15)
- • Superior defensive efficiency (55% StrDef vs 45%)
- • Lower SApM (1.79 vs 2.86) creates better damage economy
- • Control time creates safe scoring minutes
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Chiasson's size and reach advantage at distance
- • Big cage extends early range time for Chiasson
- • Chiasson's submission threat in scrambles
🏁Executive Summary
Ailin Perez's systematic approach to fight control should steadily compress the 30-foot octagon space and bank safe minutes through takedown pressure and control sequences, while Macy Chiasson's best equity centers on maintaining distance and utilizing her size advantage before the Argentine's pressure takes hold. The statistical differentials heavily favor Perez: her 4.68 TD15 vs Chiasson's 2.07 creates a 2.26x takedown volume advantage, while her 1.79 SApM vs Chiasson's 2.86 represents superior defensive efficiency that compounds over three rounds. Perez's superior striking defense (55% vs 45%) and lower absorption rate demonstrate exceptional defensive capabilities, while Chiasson's recent L2 streak suggests struggles maintaining her preferred gameplan against pressure fighters. The Argentine's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with her takedown pressure.
Prediction: Perez by Decision most likely (42% probability) through consistent takedown pressure and control time accumulation; Chiasson's upset lane is Decision (17%) via maintaining distance and accumulating strike differentials, or KO/TKO (10%) via elbows and damage at close range. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Chiasson can capitalize on her size and reach advantages before Perez's takedown pressure and superior defensive efficiency become decisive factors.