Brandon Moreno vs Asu Almabayev
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Almabayev
Saturday, February 28, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Brandon Moreno
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Asu Almabayev
23-3-0
Asu Almabayev
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Brandon Moreno
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Tatsuro Taira | L | TKO - Ground Strikes (R2, 2:24) |
| 2025-03-29 | Steve Erceg | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-02 | Amir Albazi | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-24 | Brandon Royval | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Alexandre Pantoja | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Asu Almabayev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Alex Perez | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R3, 0:22) |
| 2025-07-26 | Jose Ochoa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-01 | Manel Kape | L | TKO - Strikes (R3, 2:16) |
| 2024-10-19 | Matheus Nicolau | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-15 | Jose Johnson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (63.0 vs 59.0) and Grappling Composite (57.0 vs 76.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Brandon Moreno Key Advantages
Moreno's 70-inch reach vs Almabayev's 65" represents a significant advantage in the 30-foot octagon. The Mexican's ability to maintain distance with jabs, body shots, and combinations creates scoring opportunities while forcing Almabayev to cover more ground to close distance. His 60% striking defense combined with his reach advantage means fewer clean shots land from Almabayev's entries. This distance control compounds over five rounds—Moreno maintains his volume (3.89 SLpM) without absorbing significant damage, while Almabayev's wrestling attempts become increasingly predictable and energy-draining as he struggles to close the distance repeatedly.
Moreno's 64% takedown defense vs Almabayev's 44% creates a defensive framework that can neutralize the Kazakh's primary weapon. While Almabayev's 4.46 TD15 represents high wrestling volume, Moreno's ability to stuff initial attempts and create scrambles prevents the fight from becoming a ground-control battle. The Mexican's scrambling ability and ability to return to his feet quickly means Almabayev must convert takedowns efficiently or risk expending energy on failed attempts. This defensive efficiency compounds over five rounds—Moreno maintains his striking rhythm without accumulating control time against him, while Almabayev's failed takedown attempts drain his cardio and create counter-striking opportunities.
Moreno's 3.89 SLpM vs Almabayev's 2.31 represents a volume advantage that compounds over five rounds. The Mexican's 17:08 average fight duration demonstrates exceptional cardiovascular conditioning for championship rounds. His ability to maintain striking output while defending takedowns shows efficient energy management—he doesn't gas from volume because he controls the pace through distance and defense. This cardio advantage becomes decisive in later rounds where Almabayev's wrestling pressure (4.46 TD15) becomes increasingly difficult to sustain, especially when combined with failed takedown attempts that drain energy without securing control time.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Almabayev's chain-wrestling sequences create a nightmare scenario for Moreno—once the Kazakh secures takedowns, his ability to chain shots, establish rides, and execute mat returns prevents Moreno from regaining his feet or establishing striking rhythm. The Kazakh's 4.46 TD15 suggests he can convert takedowns consistently, and his 1.5 SubPer15 means he's not just controlling—he's threatening submissions. Moreno's 64% takedown defense suggests he can stuff initial attempts, but Almabayev's persistence and re-shot ability typically break through over time. Once on the ground, Moreno's striking output drops to near zero while Almabayev accumulates control time and scoring opportunities.
Almabayev's 1.5 SubPer15 represents a real submission threat that Moreno must respect. The Kazakh's recent guillotine choke victory over Alex Perez demonstrates his ability to capitalize on scrambles and transitions. Moreno's recent TKO loss to Tatsuro Taira via ground strikes shows vulnerability when fixed on the ground. If Almabayev can secure takedowns and establish dominant positions, his submission threat forces Moreno into defensive positions that prevent him from returning to striking range. The Kazakh's ability to threaten submissions while maintaining control creates a dangerous combination that can end fights quickly or accumulate significant control time.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Moreno should utilize his jab and body shots to maintain distance and prevent Almabayev from closing range. His 44% striking accuracy combined with his 3.89 SLpM output creates volume advantages when fights remain at extended range. The Mexican's ability to mix jabs with combinations keeps Almabayev guessing and prevents him from settling into takedown rhythm. By varying his approach—sometimes jabbing to maintain distance, sometimes committing to combinations—Moreno can exploit Almabayev's need to close distance, creating counter-striking opportunities and making takedown entries more difficult.
When Almabayev commits to takedown attempts, Moreno's priority should be sprawling effectively and circling to reset distance. His 64% takedown defense suggests he can stuff initial attempts, but Almabayev's re-shot ability means Moreno must be prepared for chain-wrestling sequences. The Mexican's scrambling ability and ability to return to his feet quickly means he can neutralize takedown attempts without accumulating significant control time against him. This approach maximizes scoring while minimizing risk—Moreno can maintain his striking rhythm without exposing himself to submission attempts or extended ground control.
🚀 Asu Almabayev Key Advantages
Almabayev's 4.46 takedowns per 15min vs Moreno's 1.47 represents a 3x differential that fundamentally shifts fight control. The Kazakh's chain-wrestling sequences—pressure entries into single-legs, mat returns, and control positions—create minute-winning cycles that accumulate control time. His 42% takedown accuracy against Moreno's 64% defense suggests first-layer resistance, but Almabayev's re-shot ability and fence pressure typically break through over time. The Kazakh's ability to chain multiple attempts and maintain pressure while Moreno defends creates fatigue differentials that compound over five rounds.
Almabayev's 1.5 SubPer15 represents a real submission threat that Moreno must respect. The Kazakh's recent guillotine choke victory over Alex Perez demonstrates his ability to capitalize on scrambles and transitions. Unlike pure control wrestlers, Almabayev actively seeks submissions—his 10 career submission wins show he's not content with just control time. This submission threat forces Moreno into defensive positions that prevent him from returning to striking range, creating a dangerous combination where Almabayev can either finish fights quickly or accumulate significant control time while threatening submissions.
The 1.63 strikes absorbed per minute differential (1.99 vs 3.62) creates a damage economy that heavily favors Almabayev in scoring optics. While Moreno's 3.89 SLpM output can rack volume, Almabayev's 53% striking defense and low absorption rate mean fewer clean shots land. This defensive efficiency compounds over five rounds—Almabayev maintains his wrestling pressure without accumulating damage, while Moreno's high-volume approach leaves him vulnerable to takedowns when he overcommits to combinations. The Kazakh's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially in championship rounds where control time becomes visually apparent.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Almabayev fails to establish consistent takedown pressure and the fight remains at extended range, Moreno's 3.89 SLpM volume advantage becomes significant. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Moreno to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance. His 44% accuracy combined with high output can overwhelm Almabayev's defensive shell, especially if the Kazakh becomes hesitant to shoot after early failed attempts. Moreno's ability to rack up significant strike differentials in rounds where he maintains distance could sway judges, particularly in early rounds before Almabayev's pressure begins to take effect.
Almabayev's 12:00 average fight duration suggests he may struggle to maintain his wrestling pressure over extended periods. His 4.46 TD15 output becomes increasingly difficult to sustain as fights progress, especially when combined with failed takedown attempts and Moreno's defensive scrambling. The Kazakh's cardio limitations become particularly apparent in championship rounds where Moreno's volume and reach advantage escalate. Almabayev's tendency to fade in later rounds, combined with his need to close distance repeatedly, creates a dangerous combination where he becomes increasingly vulnerable to counter-strikes and takedown stuffing as his energy reserves deplete.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Almabayev's optimal strategy involves maintaining constant pressure while threatening takedown attempts. His approach should focus on cutting off the cage and forcing Moreno into defensive positions where takedown entries become more viable. The Kazakh's ability to chain multiple takedown attempts allows him to wear down Moreno's defense over time. When Moreno does commit to striking, Almabayev should threaten level changes and single-legs to deter combinations and create takedown opportunities. The key is maintaining pressure while staying patient enough to convert takedowns efficiently without expending excessive energy on failed attempts.
Once Almabayev secures takedowns, his priority should be establishing dominant positions and threatening submissions. His wrestling background emphasizes control positions, back-takes, and submission attempts rather than just ground-and-pound. This approach maximizes scoring while creating finish opportunities—Almabayev can bank minutes through rides and positional control while actively threatening guillotine chokes or rear-naked chokes. The Kazakh's 1.5 SubPer15 suggests he can capitalize on transitions and scrambles, making this strategy both effective for scoring and dangerous for fight-ending opportunities.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Moreno's range weapons and movement, but gradually shifting toward Almabayev's wrestling pressure as the fight progresses. Moreno's 70-inch reach and 5'7" height give him significant advantages in the early rounds when he can maintain distance and utilize his jab, body shots, and volume striking effectively. However, Almabayev's relentless pressure and chain-wrestling sequences gradually compress the available space, forcing Moreno into increasingly uncomfortable positions. The Kazakh's ability to cut off angles and force exchanges at the fence transforms the cage from Moreno's ally into Almabayev's weapon, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over five rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: takedown defense vs wrestling pressure and volume striking vs control time. Almabayev's 4.46 TD15 vs Moreno's 1.47 represents a 3x differential that fundamentally alters fight control and scoring dynamics. While Moreno's striking moments (3.89 SLpM, 44% accuracy) create volume advantages, Almabayev's damage economy (1.99 SApM vs 3.62) means he absorbs significantly less damage while maintaining offensive output. The Mexican's 60% striking defense combined with his 64% takedown defense creates a defensive framework that can neutralize Almabayev's wrestling pressure, but the Kazakh's 1.5 SubPer15 represents a submission threat that Moreno must respect. These differentials create a scoring framework where Moreno's volume and reach advantage compete with Almabayev's control time and submission threat in judges' eyes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first-layer takedown defense vs chain wrestling at the fence, volume striking vs control time accumulation, and late-round pace durability. Moreno's 64% takedown defense suggests he can stuff initial attempts, but Almabayev's persistence and re-shot ability (4.46 TD15) typically break through over time. The Mexican's volume weapons (3.89 SLpM, jab combinations) represent his most dangerous tools against Almabayev's entries, but the Kazakh's ability to vary his approach and mix striking with takedowns makes these counters less predictable. As the fight progresses, Moreno's superior cardio (17:08 avg duration vs 12:00) becomes increasingly decisive, especially when combined with his reach advantage that forces Almabayev to expend energy closing distance and defending strikes.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Brandon Moreno by Decision (36% probability), achieved through consistent volume striking, reach advantage, and superior takedown defense over five rounds. Moreno's KO/TKO path (17%) becomes viable if his accumulative striking damage builds through combinations and body shots, particularly in later rounds when Almabayev's cardio begins to fade. Almabayev's upset lane centers on Submission (13%) via guillotine chokes or back-takes when Moreno commits to takedown defense or scrambles. The Kazakh's decision path (19%) requires maintaining consistent control time throughout five rounds—a scenario that becomes viable if he can overcome Moreno's takedown defense and establish dominant positions.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 36% | Fair: +178
GOOD VALUE
Model: 13% | Fair: +669
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Fair: -150
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Brandon Moreno
Volume and reach advantage in large cage
Accumulative striking damage over rounds
Scrambling transitions and back-takes
💥Outcome Distribution - Asu Almabayev
Guillotine chokes and back-takes in transitions
Control time and wrestling dominance
Low striking output limits KO opportunities
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Asu Almabayev
- • First 7–10 minutes: Highest submission/KO equity.
- • Aggressive entries: Force scrambles, hunt for guillotine.
- • Sustained clinch: Drain Moreno's energy against the fence.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Brandon Moreno
- • Defensive wrestling: Frustrate takedowns, make Almabayev work.
- • Volume striking: Accumulate damage and points from distance.
- • Late rounds: Capitalize on cardio advantage and fatigue.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via reach advantage and takedown defense
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant takedown defense edge (64% vs 44% TDDef)
- • Reach advantage (+5") and volume (3.89 vs 2.31 SLpM)
- • Large cage favors distance control
- • Proven cardio over five rounds; championship experience
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Almabayev's wrestling pressure (4.46 TD15)
- • Submission threat (1.5 SubPer15)
- • Recent TKO loss shows vulnerability to ground strikes
🏁Executive Summary
Brandon Moreno's systematic approach to distance control should utilize the 30-foot octagon space effectively, maintaining range and volume advantages while defending takedown attempts, while Asu Almabayev's best equity centers on wrestling pressure and submission threats when he can close distance. The statistical differentials favor Moreno: his 64% TDDef vs Almabayev's 44% creates a significant takedown defense advantage, while his 3.89 SLpM vs Almabayev's 2.31 represents superior striking volume that compounds over five rounds. Moreno's 17:08 average fight duration demonstrates exceptional cardio management for championship rounds, while Almabayev's 12:00 duration suggests he may struggle maintaining his wrestling pressure over extended periods. The Mexican's ability to maintain distance while maximizing striking output creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with his reach advantage in the large cage.
Prediction: Moreno by Decision most likely (36% probability) through consistent volume and reach advantage; Almabayev's upset lane is Submission (13%) via guillotine chokes or back-takes when he can close distance and secure takedowns. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Almabayev can overcome Moreno's takedown defense and reach advantage to establish his wrestling game before Moreno's volume and cardio become decisive factors.