Carli Judice vs Juliana Miller
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez
Saturday, February 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage) • Houston, Texas
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Carli Judice
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Juliana Miller
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Carli Judice
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Nicolle Caliari | W | TKO (R1, ) |
| 2025-03-15 | Yuneisy Duben | W | TKO (R1, 1:40) |
| 2024-06-15 | Gabriella Fernandes | L | Decision (Split) (R3, ) |
| 2023-09-26 | Ernesta Kareckaite | L | Decision (Split) (R3, ) |
| 2023-05-27 | Monica Medina | W | TKO (R1, 3:16) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Juliana Miller
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Ivana Petrović | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, ) |
| 2023-08-12 | Luana Santos | L | TKO (Punches) (R1, 3:41) |
| 2023-03-18 | Veronica Macedo | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, ) |
| 2022-08-06 | Brogan Walker | W | TKO (Ground Pound) (R3, 3:57) |
| 2021-05-21 | Claire Guthrie | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, ) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.7 vs 37.2) and Grappling Composite (23.5 vs 33.8). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Carli Judice Key Advantages
Judice's 11.18 SLpM vs Miller's 2.73 represents a massive 4.1x striking volume advantage that fundamentally shifts fight control. Combined with superior accuracy (54% vs 44%) and defense (53% vs 36%), Judice controls the pace and damage output in all standup exchanges. Her explosive, pressure-capable striking style thrives in fast exchanges, and her proven head-kick threat creates immediate danger. This massive pace edge forces opponents into panic defense early—either they retreat into straight lines (kick/head kick lane opens) or they exchange (she lands heavier, earlier).
Judice's 70% takedown defense directly counters Miller's primary win condition. With Miller only converting 39% of takedown attempts, she'll need multiple chained shots to reliably ground Judice—dangerous territory against a KO artist. The big cage increases the burden on Miller to win space repeatedly, and every reset favors Judice. Miller's best moments require closing space safely, but her defensive striking metrics (StrDef 36%) suggest she doesn't consistently do that. This defensive wrestling advantage is a matchup breaker that blunts Miller's Plan A.
All 5 of Judice's wins have come by KO/TKO, with all 5 ending in Round 1. This front-loaded aggression creates immediate danger and forces Miller into panic defense before she can implement her grappling game plan. Judice's fights are typically decided before opponents settle in. Her win condition is easier to access in a large cage, and Miller's defensive striking profile matches up poorly with Judice's finishing style. The big cage + reach edge + better striking defense means Miller has to cross distance repeatedly, and every reset favors Judice.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Miller can force extended clinches and chain attempts—especially if Judice overcommits on combinations—Miller can turn those moments into back exposures and submissions. Judice's low grappling offense (0.00 Sub/15) suggests she's not a natural ground finisher; if she gets stuck under Miller even briefly, Miller can win minutes. Miller's submission game is a real win condition, and women's flyweight scrambles can flip quickly if Judice overcommits and gets tangled. If Judice misses early reads and Miller starts chaining takedowns, Judice could lose minutes.
If Miller survives the initial striking danger, she can convert scrambles into control and back-takes, or rack rounds with top time and opportunistic subs. Judice's losses are decision-based, which hints that if you can survive the early storm and make her work, she can be out-pointed. Miller's win distribution shows 2 wins in Round 3, demonstrating late-round persistence. If the fight extends beyond the first round, Miller's grappling-forward approach becomes increasingly viable as Judice's early power threat diminishes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Judice should utilize her massive pace advantage (11.18 SLpM) to force Miller into panic defense early. Her 54% striking accuracy allows her to land clean shots while maintaining defensive positioning. By varying her approach—sometimes head kicks, sometimes straight punches—Judice can exploit Miller's poor striking defense (36%) and create fight-ending opportunities. The key is forcing opponents into retreating into straight lines where kick/head kick lanes open, or making them exchange where she lands heavier, earlier. Her proven head-kick threat from her last fight (TKO R1, 1:40 vs Duben) shows she can end fights immediately.
Judice's 70% takedown defense is her key defensive weapon. She should use her superior striking defense (53% vs 36%) to create space and force resets. The big cage favors her—more resets mean more Judice striking opportunities. When Miller attempts takedowns, Judice's defensive wrestling should stuff initial attempts, and her ability to create distance after defending allows her to reset to striking range. This approach maximizes her strengths (striking) while minimizing exposure to Miller's strengths (grappling). Her high SApM (10.01) suggests she can be hit in return when fights get chaotic, so maintaining defensive positioning is crucial.
🚀 Juliana Miller Key Advantages
Miller's clear submission intent (1.26 Sub/15, 50% of wins by SUB) represents her primary win condition. Her grappling-forward, submission-minded style thrives when she can turn fights into clinch/ground sequences. If Miller can force extended clinches and chain attempts—especially if Judice overcommits on combinations—Miller can turn those moments into back exposures and submissions. Her ability to win scrambles and find the back/neck in transitions creates real finishing opportunities. This submission game is a genuine win condition that can flip fights quickly in women's flyweight scrambles.
Miller's better offensive wrestling volume (TD15 2.20 vs Judice's 0.95) gives her a path to control. Her 39% takedown accuracy means she may need multiple chained attempts to reliably ground Judice, but her persistence and ability to chain shots can break through. Once on the ground, Miller's submission threat becomes real. She can win a "messy" fight if she can get the opponent working off balance and defending grips. Her ability to rack rounds with top time and opportunistic subs becomes viable if she survives the early striking danger.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Judice's early KO threat creates a nightmare scenario for Miller—her 11.18 SLpM output and 100% finish rate (all wins by KO/TKO in Round 1) means Miller must survive the "Judice ignition phase" without taking a major head shot. Miller's poor striking defense (36%) is a major liability that gets her hurt vs a power-first opponent. The big cage forces Miller to cover more distance to get clean entries, and entries are where Judice's KO game lives. If Miller can't survive the first 4 minutes without taking significant damage, her grappling game plan becomes irrelevant.
Judice's 70% takedown defense directly blunts Miller's Plan A. With Miller only converting 39% of takedown attempts, she'll need multiple chained shots to reliably ground Judice—dangerous territory against a KO artist. If Miller shoots 6–8 times and can't complete enough takedowns against 70% TD defense, she's stuck striking at range—her worst-case scenario. The big cage increases reset frequency, and more resets mean more Judice striking opportunities. Miller's TD defense (44%) also means if Judice chooses to mix a reactive takedown, Miller may not have the defensive base to keep it standing.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Miller's optimal strategy involves surviving the first 4 minutes without taking a major head shot. She must avoid panic defense and straight-line retreats that open up Judice's kick/head kick lanes. Her key is closing space safely—though her defensive striking metrics (36%) suggest she doesn't consistently do this. If Miller can survive the initial striking danger, she can convert scrambles into control and back-takes. The first key factor is whether Miller can survive the "Judice ignition phase" without taking significant damage that compromises her ability to implement her grappling game plan.
Once Miller survives early exchanges, her priority should be chaining takedown attempts. Her 2.20 TD15 volume and 39% accuracy mean she'll likely need multiple attempts, but her ability to chain shots and maintain pressure can break through Judice's 70% defense. Once on the ground, Miller should prioritize back-takes and submission opportunities. Her 1.26 Sub/15 shows clear submission intent, and 50% of her wins come by submission. If Miller can force extended clinches and chain attempts— especially if Judice overcommits on combinations—Miller can turn those moments into back exposures and submissions, or rack rounds with top time and opportunistic subs.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—the large cage generally rewards the fighter who can win space and forces the wrestler to cover more distance to get clean entries. This favors Judice's striking game, as Miller must cross distance repeatedly to access her grappling, and every reset favors Judice. The big cage + reach edge (68" vs 66") + better striking defense (53% vs 36%) means Miller has to cross distance repeatedly, and every reset favors Judice. However, if Miller can survive early exchanges and force extended clinches, the large cage also provides space for her to chain takedown attempts and create grappling opportunities. The key factor is whether Miller can survive the "Judice ignition phase" and close distance safely.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: striking dominance and takedown defense. Judice's 11.18 SLpM vs Miller's 2.73 represents a massive 4.1x striking volume advantage that fundamentally shifts fight control. Combined with superior accuracy (54% vs 44%) and defense (53% vs 36%), Judice controls the pace and damage output in all standup exchanges. However, Miller's 2.20 TD15 vs Judice's 0.95 gives her a grappling path, but Judice's 70% takedown defense directly counters Miller's primary win condition. With Miller only converting 39% of takedown attempts, she'll need multiple chained shots to reliably ground Judice—dangerous territory against a KO artist. These differentials create a scoring framework where Judice's striking output and damage efficiency consistently outweigh Miller's grappling attempts in judges' eyes, unless Miller can secure and maintain control.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first 4 minutes survival vs early KO threat, entry quality vs takedown defense, and reset frequency vs grappling control. Judice's 70% takedown defense suggests she can stuff initial attempts, but Miller's persistence and chain-shot ability could break through if she survives early exchanges. Judice's early striking threat (all 5 wins by KO/TKO in Round 1) represents her most dangerous weapon, but Miller's ability to survive and chain takedowns makes this less predictable. As the fight progresses, Judice's superior cardio (57.6 vs 47.7) becomes increasingly decisive, especially when combined with her striking pressure that forces Miller to expend energy defending strikes and closing distance for takedowns. The key factor is whether Miller can survive the early storm and implement her grappling game plan. If Miller shoots 6–8 times, how many does she actually complete against 70% TD defense? More resets mean more Judice striking opportunities.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Carli Judice by KO/TKO (50% probability), achieved through early striking pressure, massive volume advantage, and superior finishing ability. Judice's decision path (17%) becomes viable if Miller survives early exchanges but can't secure enough takedowns to win rounds. Miller's upset lane centers on submission (14%) via chained takedowns and back-takes, or decision (14%) if she survives early and banks clinch/top-control minutes. Miller's KO/TKO path (4%) is extremely unlikely, requiring attritional ground-and-pound or a rare standing moment. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Miller can survive the "Judice ignition phase" and close distance safely to access her grappling game before Judice's early power threat materializes.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
Model: 14% | Fair: +614
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues early striking threat – Judice's KO power in R1 is a significant risk factor.
- • Overprices submission path – Miller needs to survive early exchanges to access her grappling game.
- • Big-cage bias – Large octagon favors striker; Miller must cover more distance for entries.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Carli Judice
Primary path via early striking and head kicks
Survives early exchanges and out-damages Miller
Extremely rare chaos scenario
💥Outcome Distribution - Juliana Miller
Best lane via chained takedowns and back-takes
Survives early storm and banks control minutes
Attritional ground-and-pound or rare standing moment
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Juliana Miller
- • First 7–10 minutes: Highest intercept KO equity.
- • Perimeter control: Teeps + calf kicks to stall entries.
- • Short pockets: Burst then reset; avoid extended clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Carli Judice
- • Chain shots: Re-mats and rides bank control and sap pace.
- • Damage economy: Keep exchanges short; minimize risk.
- • Late minutes: Safer control edges decision likelihood.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via wrestling cycles and safer damage profile
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive striking volume edge (11.18 vs 2.73 SLpM)
- • Superior accuracy and defense (54%/53% vs 44%/36%)
- • 100% finish rate with all wins by KO/TKO
- • 70% takedown defense counters Miller's primary path
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Grappling entanglement if Judice overcommits
- • Miller's submission threat in scrambles
- • Late-round survival if early KO doesn't materialize
🏁Executive Summary
Carli Judice's explosive striking approach should dominate the 30-foot octagon space with massive volume advantage and early finish threat, while Juliana Miller's best equity centers on surviving early exchanges and accessing her grappling game through chained takedown attempts. The statistical differentials heavily favor Judice: her 11.18 SLpM vs Miller's 2.73 creates a 4.1x striking volume advantage, while her 70% takedown defense directly counters Miller's primary win condition. Judice's 100% finish rate (all 5 wins by KO/TKO in Round 1) demonstrates exceptional early power, while Miller's 36% striking defense suggests struggles defending against high-volume strikers. Judice's ability to maximize damage output while minimizing grappling exposure creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with her superior accuracy (54% vs 44%) and defense (53% vs 36%).
Prediction: Judice by KO/TKO most likely (50% probability) through early striking pressure and massive volume advantage; Miller's upset lane is submission (14%) via chained takedowns and back-takes, or decision (14%) if she survives early and banks control minutes. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Miller can survive the "Judice ignition phase" and close distance safely to access her grappling game before Judice's early power threat materializes.