Nora Cornolle vs Joselyne Edwards
Women's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez
Saturday, February 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage) • Houston, Texas (Toyota Center)
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Nora Cornolle
9-3-0
Nora Cornolle
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Joselyne Edwards
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Nora Cornolle
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Karol Rosa | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, ) |
| 2025-04-12 | Hailey Cowan | W | Submission (Rear Naked Choke) (R2, 1:52) |
| 2024-09-28 | Jacqueline Cavalcanti | L | Decision (Split) (R3, ) |
| 2024-04-06 | Melissa Mullins | W | TKO (Punches) (R2, 3:06) |
| 2023-09-02 | Joselyne Edwards | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, ) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Joselyne Edwards
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | Priscila Cachoeira | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 2:24) |
| 2025-04-26 | Chelsea Chandler | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 2:31) |
| 2024-10-19 | Tamires Vidal | W | Submission (Rear Naked Choke) (R3, 4:33) |
| 2024-06-01 | Ailín Pérez | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, ) |
| 2023-09-02 | Nora Cornolle | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, ) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Nora Cornolle Key Advantages
Cornolle's 62% striking defense vs Edwards' 50% creates a significant defensive advantage that compounds over three rounds. More importantly, Cornolle absorbs far less damage (1.91 SApM vs 3.20), meaning she takes fewer clean shots while landing cleaner counters. This defensive efficiency means Cornolle can stay in the pocket longer and land damaging shots in exchanges without accumulating visible damage. Her ability to avoid clean strikes while landing her own creates judge-friendly optics, especially when combined with her clinch work where she can land knees and elbows that score visibly.
Cornolle's Muay Thai background gives her a clear advantage in clinch exchanges and dirty boxing range. When she can close distance and force clinch moments, her knees, elbows, and short strikes become her most dangerous weapons. Her previous win over Edwards came via decision where she likely controlled these exchanges. Cornolle's ability to make clinch moments count—landing visible damage with knees to the body and elbows in tight—can flip rounds even when Edwards is winning the volume battle at range. Her finish rate (88.9%) shows she can capitalize on these moments when opponents give her opportunities.
Cornolle's defensive efficiency allows her to land cleaner counter shots when Edwards enters range. Her 54% striking accuracy matches Edwards', but she lands more damaging shots because she's not absorbing as much in return. When Edwards throws combinations, Cornolle can counter with clean shots that score visibly with judges. Her ability to make opponents pay for entering her range creates a deterrent effect—if Edwards becomes hesitant to commit after eating counters, Cornolle can control the pace and force the fight into her preferred clinch range where her Muay Thai skills shine.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Edwards successfully maintains distance and prevents Cornolle from closing to clinch range, Edwards' volume advantage (4.62 SLpM vs 3.07) becomes decisive. The 30-foot cage gives Edwards more space to circle and reset, making it harder for Cornolle to sustain pressure sequences. Edwards' 3-inch reach advantage (70" vs 67") allows her to land jabs and straights while staying out of Cornolle's clinch range. If Cornolle can't close distance safely, she'll fall behind on volume and lose rounds on activity, especially in early rounds before she can establish her pressure rhythm.
Edwards' significant grappling advantage (1.31 TD15 vs 0.33) means she can change the fight location if she falls behind on the feet. Cornolle's 50% takedown defense is vulnerable, especially against an opponent with 41% takedown accuracy. If Edwards mixes takedowns behind her jab, she can control rounds with top position and ground control time. Cornolle has no credible grappling response if taken down—her minimal takedown game (0.33 TD15, 11% accuracy) means she can't threaten Edwards with takedowns of her own. This creates a one-way grappling threat that Edwards can exploit.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Cornolle should pressure with layered entries—jab feints to body kicks to clinch touches. Her goal is to make Edwards uncomfortable after exchanges by crashing into clinch immediately rather than admiring work. By mixing her approach and varying entries, Cornolle can prevent Edwards from settling into rhythm at range. Her 54% striking accuracy means she can land these setup strikes while maintaining defensive positioning. The key is closing distance safely without eating jabs and straights on the way in, then making clinch moments count with visible damage.
Once in clinch, Cornolle must make these moments count with knees, elbows, and short strikes that score visibly. Her Muay Thai background gives her the tools to dominate these exchanges. She should prioritize body knees and elbows that create visible damage and drain Edwards' cardio. If taken down, Cornolle must get up immediately— she cannot accept bottom time against an opponent with submission threats. Her 50% takedown defense suggests vulnerability, but her ability to scramble and get back to feet will be crucial to avoid losing rounds on control time.
🚀 Joselyne Edwards Key Advantages
Edwards' 4.62 SLpM vs Cornolle's 3.07 creates a significant volume advantage that judges consistently reward. Her ability to maintain high output while switching angles and varying attack patterns makes her difficult to counter effectively. Edwards' volume becomes particularly dangerous in early rounds when she's fresh and can sustain high output without fatigue. Her 54% accuracy means she's landing clean shots consistently, and her ability to string together combinations can overwhelm opponents who struggle to match her pace. In a 3-round fight, this volume differential matters because judges see "work rate" and activity.
Edwards' 1.31 TD15 vs Cornolle's 0.33 represents a nearly 4x differential that gives her a clear path to control rounds. Her 41% takedown accuracy combined with Cornolle's 50% takedown defense means Edwards can credibly threaten takedowns and actually complete them. Once on top, Edwards can accumulate control time and look for submissions (0.55 sub attempts per 15). This grappling layer is Edwards' biggest advantage—if she falls behind on the feet, she can change the fight location and win rounds with wrestling. Cornolle has no credible grappling response, making this a one-way threat.
Edwards' 3-inch reach advantage (70" vs 67") combined with her 1-inch height advantage (5'8" vs 5'7") creates significant striking opportunities at range. Her arsenal includes long jabs, straights, and kicks that can keep Cornolle at distance while scoring points. In the 30-foot cage, Edwards can maintain this preferred distance longer, forcing Cornolle to cover more ground to close distance. Edwards' ability to circle, reset, and prevent prolonged clinch sequences makes it harder for Cornolle to sustain pressure and land her best weapons in tight quarters.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Cornolle successfully closes distance and forces prolonged clinch exchanges, her Muay Thai skills become decisive. Edwards' 50% striking defense and 3.20 SApM suggest she can be hit cleanly, especially in tight quarters where Cornolle's knees and elbows land. Cornolle's previous win over Edwards came via decision where she likely controlled these exchanges. If Edwards can't prevent clinch moments or escape quickly, Cornolle can land visible damage that scores with judges and drains Edwards' cardio. The rematch factor means Cornolle knows how to beat Edwards, and clinch control was likely part of that formula.
Cornolle's superior defensive efficiency (62% StrDef vs 50%) means she lands cleaner shots while absorbing less damage. If Edwards becomes too aggressive with her volume and leaves openings, Cornolle can counter with damaging shots that score visibly with judges. Edwards' 3.20 SApM suggests she can be hit cleanly, especially when committing to combinations. If Cornolle makes Edwards pay for every entry with clean counters, Edwards may become hesitant, allowing Cornolle to control the pace and force the fight into her preferred range. The volume-vs-cleanliness dynamic can flip rounds if Cornolle lands the more damaging shots.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Edwards should prioritize long weapons first—jabs, straights, and long kicks to keep Cornolle at the end of her shots. Her 3-inch reach advantage allows her to land while staying out of clinch range. The key is maintaining high volume (4.62 SLpM) to rack up strikes and win rounds on activity. Edwards should circle, reset, and prevent prolonged pressure sequences that allow Cornolle to close distance. By staying active and landing consistently, she can build strike differentials that judges reward, especially in early rounds before Cornolle establishes her pressure rhythm.
When Cornolle tries to close distance, Edwards should meet her with reactive takedowns or clinch-to-trip against the fence. Her 1.31 TD15 and 41% accuracy give her credible takedown threats, especially against Cornolle's 50% takedown defense. If Edwards gets top position, she should prioritize control and damage over wild submissions early. Submissions become viable when Cornolle scrambles late and tires. The rematch factor is crucial—Edwards lost their first meeting by decision, meaning she's likely studied Cornolle's patterns and will look to mix wrestling more aggressively this time to avoid a pure striking match where Cornolle's defensive efficiency can flip rounds.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon slightly favors Edwards' ability to manage distance and work at range, though the larger cage makes takedown entries harder if shooting from too far. Edwards has the size advantage (5'8" vs 5'7", 70" reach vs 67"), which allows her to keep Cornolle at the end of her combinations. However, Cornolle's Muay Thai pressure style thrives when she can force clinch moments and dirty boxing exchanges, which the large cage makes more challenging to sustain. Edwards' game plan will be to use the space to circle, reset, and prevent prolonged pressure sequences that allow Cornolle to land cleaner shots in tight quarters.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields: striking volume vs striking defense, and grappling control. Edwards leads significantly in pace (4.62 SLpM vs 3.07) and grappling activity (1.31 TD15 vs 0.33), giving her multiple paths to victory. However, Cornolle's defensive efficiency is markedly superior—62% striking defense vs 50%, and she absorbs far less damage (1.91 SApM vs 3.20). This creates a classic volume-vs-cleanliness dynamic where Edwards racks up strikes and judges see "activity," but Cornolle lands the more damaging shots. Edwards' takedown accuracy (41%) and submission activity (0.55 per 15) represent her biggest advantage: if Cornolle falls behind on the feet, she lacks a credible grappling response.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: range management and output scoring, clinch moments and dirty boxing, and Edwards' wrestling layer. Cornolle must close distance safely without eating jabs and straights, then make clinch moments count with knees, elbows, and short strikes. If Edwards can keep the fight at long range and layer in takedowns behind her jab, she wins rounds on volume and control time. Cornolle's 50% takedown defense is vulnerable, especially against an opponent with functional wrestling. The rematch factor is significant—Edwards lost their first meeting by decision, meaning she's likely studied Cornolle's patterns and will look to mix in wrestling more aggressively this time to avoid a pure striking match.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Joselyne Edwards by Decision (30% probability), achieved through sustained volume striking and wrestling control over three rounds. Edwards' multiple paths to victory—volume at range, takedowns and control time, or late-fight submissions—give her the edge. Her KO/TKO path (22%) becomes viable if she can land early damage like her recent back-to-back R1 TKOs, while her submission path (14%) opens up if she gets top position late when Cornolle is tired. Cornolle's upset lane centers on Decision (18%) via clean counter striking and clinch damage if she can make Edwards uncomfortable entering range. Cornolle's KO/TKO path (10%) and submission path (6%) are less likely given Edwards' grappling advantage and defensive improvements since their first meeting.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30% | Market undervalues volume scoring path
GOOD VALUE
Model: 55% | Both fighters have cardio for distance
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 14% | Late-fight submission threat if Cornolle tires
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Edwards' grappling layer – Takedown and submission threats give her multiple win paths.
- • Overrates Cornolle's clinch impact – Large cage limits sustained pressure sequences.
- • First fight recency bias – Edwards has evolved since losing their first meeting.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Nora Cornolle
Clean counters and clinch damage accumulation
Clinch knees and elbows cause cumulative damage
Scramble opportunities if Edwards takes her down
💥Outcome Distribution - Joselyne Edwards
Most likely path via volume and wrestling control
Early round TKOs like her recent wins
Late-round RNC when Cornolle is tired
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Nora Cornolle
- • Clinch control: Force dirty boxing and landing knees/elbows.
- • Counter striking: Land clean shots when Edwards enters.
- • Pressure moments: Make Edwards uncomfortable at mid-range.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Joselyne Edwards
- • Range management: Keep jab working and maintain distance.
- • Mix wrestling: Layer takedowns behind striking to control location.
- • Late pressure: Push pace and look for submissions if on top.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Fairly confident based on statistical levers and style matchup
✅Supporting Factors
- • Edwards has significant volume and grappling advantages (4.62 vs 3.07 SLpM, 1.31 vs 0.33 TD15)
- • Reach and height favor Edwards (70" vs 67", 5'8" vs 5'7")
- • Edwards on 3-fight win streak with recent TKO finishes
- • Large cage helps Edwards manage distance
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Cornolle won their first meeting by decision
- • Cornolle's cleaner striking (62% def, 1.91 SApM vs Edwards' 50% def, 3.20 SApM)
- • Clinch moments could favor Cornolle's Muay Thai style
🏁Executive Summary
Joselyne Edwards enters this rematch with clear statistical advantages in output (4.62 vs 3.07 SLpM), wrestling activity (1.31 vs 0.33 TD15), and submission threats (0.55 vs 0.33 per 15), giving her multiple paths to victory. However, Nora Cornolle's superior defensive efficiency (62% striking defense vs 50%, 1.91 SApM vs 3.20) and proven ability to beat Edwards in their first meeting creates a compelling underdog case. The key differentials favor Edwards: she can win by volume striking, by takedowns and control, or by late-fight submission—while Cornolle must win at mid-range clinch exchanges or land clean counter shots to overcome the pace and wrestling pressure. The large 30-foot cage slightly favors Edwards' ability to manage distance and prevent prolonged clinch sequences where Cornolle's Muay Thai style thrives.
Prediction: Edwards by Decision most likely (30% probability) through sustained volume striking and wrestling control; Cornolle's upset path is through clean counter striking and clinch damage (18% Decision) if she can make Edwards uncomfortable entering range. The rematch factor is significant—Edwards has likely studied the first loss and will look to avoid a pure striking match by mixing in more wrestling, while Cornolle must replicate her previous success without a credible answer to Edwards' grappling layer.