Alden Coria vs Luis Gurule
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Saturday, February 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Alden Coria
11-3-0
Alden Coria
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Luis Gurule
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alden Coria
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Alessandro Costa | W | TKO - Strikes (R3, 0:47) |
| 2025-05-25 | German Orpineda Ponce | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 3:21) |
| 2025-01-12 | Paris Moran | NC | No Contest - Punches (R1, 3:12) |
| 2024-11-03 | Chris Ocon | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:22) |
| 2024-06-16 | Jose Leon | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R2, 2:58) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Luis Gurule
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Jesus Aguilar | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-05 | Ode Osbourne | L | TKO - Strikes (R2, 1:54) |
| 2024-10-15 | Nick Piccininni | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-22 | Jacob Silva | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R4, 2:32) |
| 2024-04-21 | Alberto Trujillo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (65.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (58.0 vs 22.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Alden Coria Key Advantages
2.78 takedowns per 15min vs 0.68 represents a 4.1x differential that fundamentally shifts fight control. Coria's wrestling threat with 100% takedown accuracy creates a constant pressure that forces Gurule to defend level changes rather than focus on his high-volume striking. Coria's ability to mix striking entries with takedown attempts keeps Gurule guessing and prevents him from settling into rhythm. Against Gurule's 50% takedown defense, Coria's perfect accuracy and persistent re-shot ability typically break through. This wrestling advantage compounds over three rounds as Gurule's energy depletes from defending takedowns while maintaining his high-volume striking output.
The 2.63 strikes absorbed per minute differential (1.11 vs 3.74) creates a damage economy that heavily favors Coria in scoring optics. While Gurule's 5.34 SLpM output can rack volume, Coria's elite 78% striking defense and minimal absorption rate mean fewer clean shots land. This defensive efficiency compounds over three rounds—Coria maintains his pace without accumulating damage, while Gurule's high-volume approach leaves him vulnerable to counters and takedowns. Coria's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially as the fight progresses where damage accumulation becomes visually apparent.
Coria's 81.8% finish rate demonstrates his ability to close fights decisively, with 9 of 11 wins coming via finish. His selective striking approach (3.89 SLpM) combined with elite defense (78% StrDef) creates efficient energy management—he doesn't waste energy in high-volume exchanges because he controls the pace through defensive positioning and takedown threats. Coria's ability to maintain his pace while executing takedown chains shows efficient energy management. This cardio advantage becomes decisive as the fight progresses where Gurule's high-volume striking (5.34 SLpM) becomes increasingly difficult to sustain, especially when defending takedowns and fighting off his back.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Gurule's 5.34 SLpM output represents a significant volume advantage that could overwhelm Coria's defensive shell if the fight remains at extended range. Gurule's 49% striking accuracy combined with high output can create strike differentials that sway judges, especially in early rounds before Coria establishes his wrestling rhythm. If Coria becomes hesitant to shoot after early takedown attempts fail, Gurule's ability to rack up significant strike counts could create scoring problems. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Gurule to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance.
If Gurule's 50% takedown defense holds up consistently and he stuffs Coria's takedown attempts, the fight could remain standing where Gurule's volume advantage becomes decisive. Coria's lower output (3.89 SLpM) means he needs to land cleaner, more impactful shots to compete in a pure striking match. If Coria can't establish his wrestling threat, Gurule's ability to maintain high output and rack up strike counts could create significant scoring advantages, especially in rounds where activity and volume heavily influence judges' decisions.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Coria should utilize his reach advantage (+3") and selective striking to set up takedown entries. His 44% striking accuracy combined with elite defense allows him to land setup strikes while maintaining defensive positioning. Coria's ability to mix striking entries with takedown attempts keeps Gurule guessing and prevents him from settling into his high-volume rhythm. By varying his approach—sometimes feinting shots, sometimes committing—Coria can exploit Gurule's tendency to overreact to takedown threats, creating opportunities for clean entries with his 100% takedown accuracy.
Once Coria secures takedowns, his priority should be establishing dominant positions and accumulating control time. His wrestling background emphasizes mat returns, wrist control, and ground strikes rather than immediate submission attempts. This approach maximizes scoring while minimizing risk—Coria can bank minutes through rides and positional control without exposing himself to submission attempts or sweeps. Coria's 75% takedown defense suggests he can maintain top position once established, making this strategy both effective and sustainable over three rounds. His 81.8% finish rate shows he can capitalize on accumulated damage when opportunities arise.
🚀 Luis Gurule Key Advantages
Gurule's 5.34 SLpM output vs Coria's 3.89 represents a significant volume advantage that creates striking opportunities when fights remain upright. His high output combined with 49% striking accuracy ensures consistent pressure that can overwhelm defensive shells. Gurule's ability to maintain this pace while switching stances and varying attack angles makes him difficult to counter effectively. In the 30-foot cage, Gurule can utilize the space to maintain his preferred striking distance, forcing Coria to cover more ground and commit to longer entries that expose him to counters. His volume becomes particularly dangerous in early rounds when he's fresh.
Gurule's 49% striking accuracy vs Coria's 44% means he lands a higher percentage of his attempts, making his volume more effective. Combined with his 5.34 SLpM output, this creates significant pressure that can overwhelm defensive shells. Gurule's ability to maintain this pace while switching stances and varying attack angles makes him difficult to counter effectively. His volume becomes particularly dangerous in early rounds when he's fresh and can sustain high output without fatigue. His accuracy means he's landing clean shots consistently, and his ability to string together combinations can overwhelm opponents who struggle to match his pace or establish their own rhythm.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Coria's wrestling sequences create a nightmare scenario for Gurule—once Coria secures takedowns with his 100% accuracy, his ability to chain shots, establish rides, and execute mat returns prevents Gurule from regaining his feet or establishing striking rhythm. Gurule's 50% takedown defense suggests he can stuff some initial attempts, but Coria's perfect accuracy and persistence typically break through. Once on the ground, Gurule's striking output drops to near zero while Coria accumulates control time and scoring opportunities. This scenario becomes increasingly likely as the fight progresses and Gurule's cardio begins to fade from defending takedowns.
Gurule's 58% striking defense and 3.74 SApM absorption rate create significant vulnerabilities against Coria's selective counter-striking. His high-volume approach leaves openings for clean counters, especially when he overcommits to combinations. Gurule's defensive limitations become particularly apparent as the fight progresses where Coria's elite 78% defense and minimal 1.11 SApM absorption create a stark contrast. Gurule's tendency to absorb damage while maintaining high output creates a dangerous combination where he becomes increasingly vulnerable to both striking counters and takedowns as his energy reserves deplete from the damage accumulation.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Gurule's optimal strategy involves maintaining high-volume output to overwhelm Coria's defensive shell. His 5.34 SLpM output should target Coria's base and mobility, making takedown entries more difficult through constant pressure. Gurule's ability to switch stances allows him to vary his attack angles and keep Coria guessing. When Coria does commit to shots, Gurule should maintain his output and threaten intercept strikes to deter entries and create counter opportunities. The key is maintaining activity while staying mobile enough to avoid takedowns and prevent Coria from settling into rhythm or establishing consistent pressure.
Gurule's best chance for victory lies in front-loading activity during the first two rounds when he's fresh and Coria hasn't yet established his wrestling rhythm. Gurule should look to capitalize on his early energy advantage by maintaining high output and landing clean shots before Coria's pressure begins to take effect. His 5.34 SLpM output becomes most dangerous when he can sustain it without grappling exchanges or takedown defense draining his energy. By establishing early momentum and potentially scoring knockdowns or significant damage, Gurule can force Coria to fight from behind and potentially alter Coria's gameplan. His 0-2 UFC record adds urgency to perform early.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Gurule's high-volume striking and movement, but gradually shifting toward Coria's wrestling pressure as the fight progresses. Coria's +3" height and +3" reach advantages give him significant advantages in the early rounds when he can maintain distance and utilize his selective striking effectively. However, Coria's wrestling threat and elite defense gradually compress the available space, forcing Gurule into increasingly uncomfortable positions. Coria's ability to cut off angles and force exchanges at the fence transforms the cage from Gurule's ally into Coria's weapon, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over three rounds as Gurule's high-volume approach becomes increasingly difficult to sustain.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: wrestling activity and damage economy. Coria's 2.78 TD15 vs Gurule's 0.68 represents a 4.1x differential that fundamentally alters fight control and scoring dynamics. While Gurule's striking moments (5.34 SLpM, 49% accuracy) create impressive volume, Coria's damage economy (1.11 SApM vs 3.74) means he absorbs significantly less damage while maintaining offensive output. Coria's elite 78% striking defense combined with his wrestling threat forces Gurule into uncomfortable exchanges where his high-volume approach becomes less effective. These differentials create a scoring framework where Coria's control time and damage efficiency consistently outweigh Gurule's striking output in judges' eyes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first-layer takedown defense vs wrestling accuracy, volume vs defense efficiency, and pace sustainability. Gurule's 50% takedown defense suggests he can stuff some initial attempts, but Coria's 100% takedown accuracy and persistence typically break through over time. Gurule's high-volume output (5.34 SLpM) represents his most dangerous tool, but Coria's elite 78% defense and minimal 1.11 SApM absorption make these attacks less effective. As the fight progresses, Coria's superior damage economy and finish rate (81.8%) become increasingly decisive, especially when combined with his wrestling pressure that forces Gurule to expend energy defending takedowns and fighting off his back.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Alden Coria by Decision (28% probability), achieved through consistent takedown pressure, control time accumulation, and superior damage economy over three rounds. Coria's KO/TKO path (34%) becomes viable if his ground-and-pound accumulates damage through rides and mat returns, particularly as Gurule's cardio begins to fade. Gurule's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (11%) via volume accumulation and pressure as Coria commits to defensive positioning. Gurule's decision path (12%) requires maintaining high-volume output throughout three rounds while defending takedowns—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely as Coria's pressure escalates and the damage differential compounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 28% | Fair: +257
GOOD VALUE
Model: 34% | Fair: +194
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 45% | Fair: +122
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alden Coria
Primary path via takedown control and damage efficiency
Counter-striking and ground-and-pound accumulation
Positional control creates submission opportunities
💥Outcome Distribution - Luis Gurule
Best lane via volume accumulation and pressure
Requires sustained high-volume output throughout
Limited submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Luis Gurule
- • First 5 minutes: Highest volume output when fresh.
- • High activity: Maintain 5.34 SLpM pace to overwhelm defense.
- • Early damage: Accumulate strikes before takedown threat escalates.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Alden Coria
- • Takedown control: 100% accuracy creates consistent scoring opportunities.
- • Damage economy: Elite 78% defense minimizes absorption while maximizing control.
- • Finish threat: 81.8% finish rate creates multiple paths to victory.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via wrestling cycles and safer damage profile
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant takedown volume edge (2.78 vs 0.68 TD15)
- • Lower SApM and better damage economy
- • Ride control creates safe scoring minutes
- • Proven cardio and finish rate over three rounds
⚠️Risk Factors
- • High-volume output can overwhelm defensive shell
- • Big cage extends early range time for volume
- • Gurule's 49% accuracy creates consistent pressure
🏁Executive Summary
Alden Coria's systematic approach to fight control should steadily compress the 30-foot octagon space and bank safe minutes through wrestling sequences, while Luis Gurule's best equity centers on early high-volume striking and activity before Coria's pressure takes hold. The statistical differentials heavily favor Coria: his 2.78 TD15 vs Gurule's 0.68 creates a 4.1x takedown volume advantage, while his 1.11 SApM vs Gurule's 3.74 represents superior damage economy that compounds over three rounds. Coria's elite 78% striking defense and 81.8% finish rate demonstrate exceptional fight-ending ability, while Gurule's 58% defense and 3.74 SApM absorption suggest struggles maintaining his high-volume approach without accumulating damage. Coria's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially as the fight progresses where damage accumulation becomes visually apparent.
Prediction: Coria by Decision most likely (28% probability) through consistent takedown pressure and control time accumulation; Coria's KO/TKO path (34%) becomes viable if his ground-and-pound accumulates damage through positional control. Gurule's upset lane is early KO/TKO (11%) via volume accumulation and pressure as Coria commits to defensive positioning. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Gurule can capitalize on his early volume advantages before Coria's wrestling pressure and superior damage economy become decisive factors.