Zach Reese vs Michel Pereira
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Saturday, February 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Zach Reese
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Michel Pereira
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Zach Reese
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Jackson McVey | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 1:38) |
| 2025-09-13 | Sedriques Dumas | NC | Accidental Foul - Groin Shot (R1, 0:51) |
| 2025-05-31 | Duško Todorović | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-18 | Azamat Bekoev | L | TKO - Ground and Pound (R1, 3:04) |
| 2024-08-24 | José Medina | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Michel Pereira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Kyle Daukaus | L | KO/TKO - Strikes (R1, 0:43) |
| 2025-04-26 | Abus Magomedov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-19 | Anthony Hernandez | L | TKO - Ground and Pound (R5, 2:22) |
| 2024-05-04 | Ihor Potieria | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 0:54) |
| 2024-03-09 | Michał Oleksiejczuk | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:01) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (65.0 vs 70.0) and Grappling Composite (75.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Zach Reese Key Advantages
3.50 takedowns per 15min vs 0.5 represents a 7x differential that fundamentally shifts fight control. Reese's pressure-grappling approach—level changes, clinch entries, and opportunistic back-takes—creates early finishing opportunities. His 45% takedown accuracy against Pereira's 76% defense suggests first-layer resistance, but Reese's persistence and 2.10 sub attempts per 15min mean he can capitalize on scrambles. The American's ability to chain multiple attempts and threaten submissions creates dangerous scenarios where Pereira's defensive wrestling can be overwhelmed through volume and opportunistic positioning.
Reese's 59% striking accuracy vs Pereira's 48% creates a significant advantage when exchanges occur. Combined with his 77-inch reach and 0.70 knockdown average, Reese can land clean shots more consistently, especially when Pereira commits to entries or defensive reactions. This accuracy advantage becomes critical in early exchanges where Reese's power and precision can end fights before Pereira settles into rhythm. The American's ability to find clean shots while Pereira's volume-based approach relies on accumulation creates a quality-over-quantity dynamic that favors early finishing opportunities.
Reese's 80% finish rate with 70% of career wins occurring in Round 1 demonstrates exceptional early finishing ability. His combination of power (0.70 knockdown avg), accuracy (59%), and submission activity (2.10 SubPer15) creates multiple paths to victory in the opening minutes. The American's 4:17 average UFC fight duration shows he's built to win moments, not minutes—if he can capitalize on early opportunities through takedowns or clean strikes, the fight can end before Pereira's defensive wrestling and late-fight comfort become factors. This early threat profile makes Reese dangerous in any exchange where Pereira gives him openings.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Pereira's elite 76% takedown defense combined with his wrestling background creates a significant barrier to Reese's primary offense. If Pereira maintains composure and stuffs early shots, Reese may be forced into a striking battle where Pereira's 52% defense and movement give him the edge. The Brazilian's ability to sprawl and counter creates a scenario where Reese's predictable entries become increasingly difficult as the fight progresses and Pereira settles into his rhythm.
If Pereira survives early exchanges and forces a three- round fight, Reese's cardio limitations (4:17 avg fight duration) become a major concern. Pereira's 11:09 average and ability to maintain high volume (4.5 SLpM) throughout fights gives him a significant edge in extended battles. Reese may struggle to maintain his early intensity while Pereira's craft and movement allow him to control the pace and accumulate damage over time.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Reese should start fast with accurate punches from range, using his 77-inch reach and 59% striking accuracy to land clean shots while closing distance. His power (0.70 KD avg) and precision create opportunities to hurt Pereira early before the Brazilian settles into his defensive rhythm. By establishing striking dominance initially, Reese can force Pereira to respect his hands and create openings for takedown attempts when Pereira becomes cautious about exchanging.
Once Reese establishes momentum, he should chain takedown attempts to overwhelm Pereira's defense. His 3.50 TD/15 volume and 2.10 sub attempts mean he can persist through initial stuffs and capitalize on fatigue. The key is maintaining pressure at the fence and mixing striking entries with shooting to keep Pereira off-balance. If Reese can get one clean takedown, his back-take ability and submission threats (RNC, arm-triangle) become significant finishers.
🚀 Michel Pereira Key Advantages
Pereira's 76% takedown defense represents elite-level wrestling denial that directly counters Reese's primary weapon (3.50 TD/15). His wrestling background allows him to sprawl effectively and use underhooks to neutralize shots while maintaining defensive positioning. This defensive excellence forces Reese to stay upright where Pereira's movement and striking craft become decisive advantages. The Brazilian's ability to stuff takedowns while staying composed creates a scenario where Reese must commit to extended striking exchanges to win.
Pereira's 11:09 average UFC fight duration demonstrates superior conditioning that becomes decisive in extended fights. Unlike Reese's 4:17 average that suggests he thrives in quick finishes, Pereira can maintain his defensive wrestling and movement over three full rounds. His ability to preserve energy while defending takedowns and maintaining defensive positioning creates a scenario where Reese's early intensity fades, allowing Pereira to dictate the pace and accumulate advantages through attrition and smart defense.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Reese's 59% striking accuracy and 0.70 knockdown average represent significant early danger if Pereira gets caught in exchanges. The American's power and precision can end fights quickly if Pereira doesn't maintain defensive discipline. Reese's 80% finish rate suggests he capitalizes on mistakes, making any lapse in Pereira's movement or defense potentially fight-ending. The Brazilian must avoid getting hit clean while maintaining his defensive wrestling posture.
Reese's 3.50 TD/15 attempt volume could overwhelm Pereira's defense if he persists through initial stuffs. The American's wrestling background and 2.10 sub attempts mean he can create chaotic scrambles where back-takes and submissions become viable. Pereira's 76% defense is excellent, but Reese's persistence and ability to chain attempts could eventually break through, especially if Pereira fatigues from maintaining defensive positioning throughout three rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Pereira should prioritize stuffing takedowns and using his wrestling defense to keep the fight upright. His 76% TD defense combined with sprawls and underhooks can neutralize Reese's primary weapon. By maintaining defensive posture and using his movement to avoid clean exchanges, Pereira forces Reese to commit to extended striking where the Brazilian's craft becomes decisive. The key is staying composed under pressure and avoiding the wild scrambles where Reese's submissions become dangerous.
Pereira's superior conditioning (11:09 avg duration) allows him to outlast Reese's early intensity. By defending patiently and using movement to avoid damage, Pereira can force a decision where his defensive wrestling and ability to maintain position become decisive. The Brazilian should focus on winning minutes rather than moments, using his cardio advantage to dictate the fight's rhythm and prevent Reese from establishing his preferred pace.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Reese's reach and accuracy, but potentially shifting toward Pereira's movement and wrestling defense as the fight progresses. Reese's 77-inch reach and 6'4" height give him significant advantages when he can establish distance and land his accurate strikes. However, Pereira's elite takedown defense and movement can neutralize Reese's wrestling threats, forcing him into extended striking exchanges where the Brazilian's conditioning becomes decisive. The large cage initially benefits Reese's ability to use range, but Pereira's defensive wrestling could transform the space into his advantage if he survives the early rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: takedown defense vs wrestling volume, and cardio endurance vs early power. Reese's 3.50 TD15 vs Pereira's 76% TD defense creates a fundamental clash between volume and denial. While Reese's accuracy (59%) and power (0.70 KD avg) create early danger, Pereira's defensive wrestling (76% TD defense) and superior conditioning (11:09 avg duration) give him clear advantages in extended fights. Reese's damage absorption (3.50 SApM) vs Pereira's 4.33 suggests the American maintains better economy, but Pereira's ability to avoid damage through movement could prove decisive.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: takedown defense vs wrestling volume, early accuracy vs defensive wrestling, and conditioning vs finishing power. Pereira's 76% takedown defense represents his strongest weapon against Reese's 3.50 TD15 volume, but the American's persistence and submission threats (2.10 SubPer15) create opportunities in scrambles. Reese's 59% striking accuracy and 0.70 KD average give him early advantages, but Pereira's movement and defensive wrestling can neutralize these threats. As the fight progresses, Pereira's superior cardio (11:09 avg vs 4:17) becomes increasingly decisive if he survives the early rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Michel Pereira by Decision (34% probability), achieved through elite takedown defense, superior conditioning, and ability to outlast Reese's early intensity over three rounds. Pereira's KO/TKO path (18%) becomes viable in counter situations if Reese gets wild with his wrestling attempts. Reese's strongest path is early KO/TKO (13%) using his accuracy and power before Pereira settles into his defensive rhythm. Reese's submission path (16%) represents his best chance if he can capitalize on scrambles created by his volume wrestling. The decision path for Reese (7%) requires perfect execution and would be his least likely victory scenario.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 34% | Fair: +194
GOOD VALUE
Model: 16% | Fair: +525
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 48% | Fair: +108
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Zach Reese
Back-takes and RNCs in early grappling
Early power and accuracy advantage
Needs consistent control over three rounds
💥Outcome Distribution - Michel Pereira
Staying upright and winning minutes
Catching Reese on entries and counters
Scrambles and opportunistic submissions
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Michel Pereira
- • Early minutes: Stay composed under Reese's initial pressure.
- • Movement priority: Use footwork to avoid clean exchanges.
- • Defense focus: Stuff takedowns and counter when opportunities arise.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Zach Reese
- • Early accuracy: Land clean shots using reach and precision.
- • Wrestling pressure: Chain takedown attempts to create openings.
- • Finish attempts: Capitalize on any defensive lapses with subs.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear edge via defensive wrestling but Reese's finishing threat remains
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite takedown defense (76% TD Def) vs volume (3.50 TD15)
- • Superior conditioning (11:09 vs 4:17 avg duration)
- • Defensive wrestling preserves energy
- • Movement neutralizes accuracy advantages
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Reese's early accuracy and power threat
- • Wrestling volume could overwhelm defense
- • Pereira's recent 0:43 KO loss shows vulnerability
🏁Executive Summary
Zach Reese's pressure wrestling and finishing ability create significant early danger, but Michel Pereira's elite takedown defense and superior conditioning should allow him to survive the initial storm and control the fight's pace. The statistical differentials show a clear clash: Reese's 3.50 TD15 volume vs Pereira's 76% TD defense, with the American's 59% striking accuracy and 0.70 KD average creating early KO threat. However, Pereira's 11:09 average fight duration vs Reese's 4:17 suggests the Brazilian can outlast the American's intensity. Reese's damage economy (3.50 SApM) vs Pereira's 4.33 indicates the American maintains better defensive striking, but Pereira's wrestling defense and movement should prove decisive in a three-round fight.
Prediction: Pereira by Decision most likely (34% probability) through elite takedown defense and conditioning advantage; Reese's best lane is early KO/TKO (13%) using accuracy and power, with submission opportunities (16%) in wrestling scrambles. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Pereira can survive Reese's early intensity before his defensive wrestling and cardio advantages become decisive factors.