Ode Osbourne vs Alibi Idiris
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Saturday, February 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Ode Osbourne
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Alibi Idiris
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ode Osbourne
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | Steve Erceg | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-05 | Luis Gurule | W | TKO - Strikes (R2, 1:54) |
| 2024-09-14 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-16 | Jafel Filho | L | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 4:27) |
| 2023-08-05 | Asu Almabayev | L | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 3:11) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alibi Idiris
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Joseph Morales | L | Submission - Triangle Choke (R2, 3:04) |
| 2025-03-12 | Roybert Echeverria | W | TKO - Punch (R1, 4:47) |
| 2025-02-26 | Furkatbek Yokubov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R2, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-18 | Edilson Santos Jr. | W | TKO - Ground and Pound (R1, 3:11) |
| 2023-12-21 | Erisson Ferreira | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 2:27) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (64.0 vs 72.0) and Grappling Composite (50.0 vs 48.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Ode Osbourne Key Advantages
Osbourne's 73-inch reach is exceptional for flyweight, giving him a 5-inch advantage that allows him to control distance and land strikes from outside Idiris's range. His southpaw stance combined with this reach creates difficult angles for orthodox fighters to navigate—the lead right hand and left cross from southpaw position become particularly dangerous when combined with superior length. The 30-foot cage amplifies this advantage, providing ample space for Osbourne to maintain preferred distance and reset when pressured. His ability to use teeps, long jabs, and switching kicks keeps opponents at bay while accumulating points. Historical data shows that when Osbourne successfully maintains this range, he can rack up significant strike differentials and prevent opponents from establishing their preferred rhythm. The large octagon allows him to circle away from pressure, cut angles, and reset positioning—all critical elements for a range striker facing a pressure fighter.
With 5 KO/TKOs and 5 submissions across 13 wins, Osbourne possesses multiple paths to victory that make him unpredictable and dangerous. His explosive power in R1-R2 has surprised higher-level opponents like Steve Erceg (knockdown) and Luis Gurule (TKO finish). The ability to threaten both striking and grappling finishes forces opponents to defend multiple attack vectors simultaneously. His southpaw left hand carries genuine knockout power that can end fights with a single clean connection, while his submission game (5 career subs) means he can capitalize on scrambles or takedown attempts. This dual-threat capability makes him particularly dangerous in early rounds when he's fresh and explosive. Opponents can't simply focus on defending strikes or defending takedowns—they must respect both, creating openings that Osbourne can exploit. His 76.9% finish rate demonstrates that when he wins, it's rarely by decision, showing his commitment to finishing fights rather than coasting to victories.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Idiris's higher volume (3.47 SLpM vs 3.07) and significantly better accuracy (50% vs 41%) become problematic if Osbourne can't establish and maintain distance control. Extended exchanges in the pocket favor Idiris's cleaner technique and tighter combinations. When forced into prolonged firefights, Osbourne's defensive gaps (47% StrDef) get exposed repeatedly, allowing Idiris to land cleaner shots while Osbourne's strikes become less effective. The cumulative effect of these exchanges compounds over rounds—Idiris's superior efficiency means he lands more significant strikes per exchange, building damage and scoring optics that judges consistently reward. If Osbourne becomes stationary or allows Idiris to cut off the cage, the reach advantage becomes meaningless and the technical superiority of Idiris takes over completely.
Osbourne's pattern of losing decisions (recent losses to Erceg, Rodríguez) suggests cardio concerns that become pronounced as fights extend. His explosive style burns energy quickly—the constant movement required to maintain distance, combined with explosive bursts of offense, creates significant energy expenditure. His 9:42 average fight duration indicates he typically finishes or gets finished early, rarely going the full distance successfully. In R3, when both fighters are tired, Idiris's superior conditioning (65 cardio score vs 55) becomes increasingly decisive. The veteran's body may show accumulated wear from 12 UFC fights, making it difficult to maintain the pace and movement required to keep Idiris at bay. When Osbourne's energy reserves deplete, his defensive shell becomes more porous, his footwork slows, and his ability to reset to long range diminishes—all factors that play directly into Idiris's pressure-based strengths.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Maximize reach advantage through constant movement and disciplined range management. Use long jabs, teeps, and switching kicks to keep Idiris at distance while circling away from pressure. The large 30-foot cage provides ample space to reset positioning and prevent Idiris from establishing sustained pressure. Focus on landing clean shots from outside while making Idiris chase, forcing him to close distance repeatedly which drains his energy. When Idiris does close distance, use clinch breaks and pivots to create separation rather than engaging in extended exchanges. The key is maintaining this distance for all 15 minutes—any lapse allows Idiris to establish his preferred range where his efficiency advantages become decisive. Footwork and cage awareness are paramount—cutting angles, using the fence to pivot, and never backing straight up are critical technical elements that must be executed consistently.
Front-load damage in R1-R2 when fresh and explosive. Look for the finishing sequence early—either through a clean southpaw left hand, surprise takedown into submission, or accumulated damage from long strikes. Seven R1 wins in his career show this is his optimal path to victory. The strategy should be aggressive but calculated: use the reach to land clean shots early, test Idiris's chin and defensive reactions, and capitalize on any openings with finishing intent. If ahead after two rounds, switch to safer range fighting to protect the lead rather than engaging in wars that favor Idiris's conditioning. However, if the finish presents itself, don't hesitate—Osbourne's 76.9% finish rate demonstrates his ability to capitalize on opportunities when they arise. The goal is to either finish the fight early or build such a significant lead that even a fade in R3 doesn't cost him the decision.
🚀 Alibi Idiris Key Advantages
Idiris's 50% striking accuracy significantly outpaces Osbourne's 41%, representing a 9-point differential that becomes increasingly meaningful over the course of a fight. Combined with higher output (3.47 SLpM vs 3.07) and better defense (53% vs 47%), he possesses superior technical fundamentals across the striking spectrum. This efficiency compounds over 15 minutes—every exchange sees Idiris landing a higher percentage of clean shots while absorbing fewer in return. The cumulative effect builds damage, creates visible scoring optics for judges, and gradually breaks down Osbourne's defensive shell. His orthodox pressure style with tight one-two combinations, low kicks, and body shots consistently finds the target, while his defensive fundamentals prevent Osbourne from landing clean counters with regularity. In a sport where judges reward clean, effective striking, Idiris's technical superiority creates a scoring framework that consistently favors him in competitive rounds.
Idiris demonstrates exceptional conditioning with R5 victories (2 wins in round 5) and the ability to maintain his 3.47 SLpM output deep into fights. His 10:18 average fight duration, combined with a 90.9% career win rate, suggests he consistently outlasts opponents and finishes strong. This becomes decisively important against Osbourne's documented late-fight fade pattern—while Osbourne's explosive style burns energy quickly, Idiris can maintain pressure and output into championship rounds. The 10-point cardio score differential (65 vs 55) reflects this physical advantage, which becomes increasingly apparent as fights progress. When both fighters are tired in R3, Idiris's superior engine allows him to continue applying pressure, landing combinations, and controlling pace while Osbourne's movement slows and his defensive reactions become delayed. This cardio advantage is particularly dangerous when combined with Idiris's pressure style—he can force exhausting exchanges that drain Osbourne's reserves while maintaining his own output.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Osbourne's 5-inch reach advantage becomes dominant if he successfully establishes and maintains distance control throughout the fight. Fighting at extended range negates Idiris's pressure strengths and efficiency advantages, while playing directly into Osbourne's wheelhouse as a range striker. In the large 30-foot cage, if Osbourne can consistently reset to long range after exchanges, Idiris's pressure becomes less effective and his ability to land clean shots diminishes significantly. Judges favor fighters who control distance and land from outside, potentially costing Idiris rounds even when he lands cleaner shots in brief exchanges. The southpaw stance combined with superior reach creates difficult angles that make it challenging for Idiris to close distance without eating counters. If Osbourne maintains this range for extended periods, Idiris's volume and accuracy advantages become less relevant, and the fight becomes a battle of who can land the cleaner long-range shots—a scenario that favors the longer fighter.
Osbourne's explosive R1-R2 power and varied finish methods (5 KOs, 5 subs) present genuine danger that can end the fight before Idiris's cardio advantages become relevant. One clean southpaw left hand, surprise takedown into submission, or accumulated damage from long strikes can finish the fight instantly. His 76.9% finish rate demonstrates he doesn't need to win decisions—when he wins, it's typically by finish. The limited UFC experience for Idiris (1 fight) means he hasn't fully adapted to championship-level speed and power, potentially leaving him vulnerable to veteran tricks and timing. Osbourne's ability to threaten both striking and grappling finishes makes him unpredictable—Idiris can't simply focus on defending one aspect. The early rounds represent the highest risk period where Osbourne's explosive potential is at its peak, and any defensive lapse or overcommitment from Idiris could result in a fight-ending sequence before his technical and cardio advantages can take effect.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close distance aggressively and force extended pocket exchanges where efficiency and volume advantages shine. Use low kicks and body shots to slow Osbourne's movement, damage his base, and prevent clean resets to long range. The strategy is to make every round a grinding affair that taxes cardio and accumulates damage—don't allow Osbourne to establish rhythm at distance. When closing distance, use feints and level changes to draw reactions, then capitalize with tight combinations. Once in the pocket, maintain pressure and force Osbourne to defend rather than reset. Use the fence to cut off escape routes and prevent Osbourne from circling away. The goal is to create sustained pressure that forces Osbourne to expend energy defending, moving, and resetting, while Idiris maintains his efficient output. Don't respect the reach too much—confident pressure forces Osbourne backward where his offensive weapons become less effective and his defensive holes more exploitable.
Even if behind early, maintain pace and trust superior conditioning to take over in R3. Osbourne's pattern shows explosive starts followed by fades—survive the early storm and capitalize late. Continue applying pressure even when tired yourself, knowing your engine outlasts his. If the fight reaches the final five minutes competitive, you're the fresher fighter with better cardio reserves. This patience requires confidence but plays directly into your physical advantages and his documented weaknesses. In R3, when Osbourne's movement slows and his defensive reactions become delayed, increase pressure and volume to capitalize on his fatigue. The goal is to clearly win the final round, potentially stealing a close decision or creating opportunities for a late finish. Your ability to maintain 3.47 SLpM output into the championship round while Osbourne's pace drops creates a clear visual contrast that judges consistently reward.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating tactical chess match where space initially favors Osbourne's reach advantage but gradually shifts toward Idiris's pressure as the fight progresses. In the early rounds, the large cage provides ample room for Osbourne to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance. His 5-inch reach advantage becomes most effective when he can utilize the full dimensions of the octagon to create angles and escape routes. However, as the fight extends and Osbourne's cardio begins to fade, the same space that initially helped him becomes a liability—Idiris's pressure style gradually compresses the available area, forcing Osbourne into increasingly uncomfortable positions. The key question is whether Osbourne can maintain disciplined movement and reset positioning for all 15 minutes against a fighter determined to close distance. Idiris's superior conditioning suggests he can sustain pressure longer, gradually eroding Osbourne's ability to maintain range. The cage dynamics create a progressive advantage for Idiris as the fight extends, transforming from Osbourne's ally in early rounds to Idiris's weapon in later rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Statistical analysis reveals Idiris holds edges in the most predictive metrics for flyweight success: striking accuracy (50% vs 41% - a 9-point differential), defense (53% vs 47% - a 6-point edge), and output (3.47 vs 3.07 SLpM - 13% higher volume). The 9-point striking composite advantage (72 vs 64) reflects this comprehensive efficiency gap across multiple dimensions. These metrics compound over 15 minutes—every exchange sees Idiris landing a higher percentage of clean shots while absorbing fewer in return. The cumulative effect builds visible damage, creates favorable scoring optics for judges, and gradually breaks down Osbourne's defensive shell. While Osbourne possesses the reach advantage and early knockout power, he requires either landing the explosive finish early or executing perfect distance management for all 15 minutes—both challenging propositions against a pressure fighter with superior technical fundamentals. The statistical evidence heavily favors a fighter who can maintain pressure, land cleaner strikes consistently, and outlast opponents—all core strengths of Idiris's game.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Alibi Idiris by Decision (36% probability), achieved through consistent pressure, superior striking efficiency, and a dominant R3 performance as Osbourne's cardio fades. Idiris's ability to maintain 3.47 SLpM output with 50% accuracy over 15 minutes, combined with his exceptional conditioning, creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward. His pressure style gradually compresses the cage space, forcing Osbourne into extended exchanges where technical advantages become decisive. Osbourne's best chance is early KO/TKO (24% probability), capitalizing on his explosive power and reach advantage before Idiris's cardio and technical superiority take control. The veteran's 76.9% finish rate and history of early victories (7 R1 wins) demonstrate this path exists, but requires landing the fight-ending sequence before Idiris's pressure and efficiency advantages accumulate. Idiris's KO/TKO path (20%) becomes viable through accumulated damage from cleaner striking and eventual defensive breakdowns from a tired Osbourne. The statistical evidence, technical fundamentals, and physical conditioning all point toward Idiris as the rightful favorite, though Osbourne's early finish threat keeps the fight competitive and prevents it from being a lock.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 36% | Fair: +178
GOOD VALUE
Model: 24% | Fair: +317
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 48% | Fair: +108
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues cardio – Late-round fade pattern not fully priced.
- • Overweights reach – Distance control difficult to maintain.
- • Name value bias – Experience doesn't offset technical deficits.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
💥Outcome Distribution - Alibi Idiris
Primary path via sustained pressure and R3 dominance
Accumulated damage and late-round finish
Opportunistic submission from scrambles
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ode Osbourne
Best lane via early explosive power
Requires perfect distance management
Surprise submission from takedown
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ode Osbourne
- • First 10 minutes: Highest KO equity.
- • Distance control: Prevent pressure buildup.
- • Early aggression: Front-load damage.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Alibi Idiris
- • Sustained pressure: Force exchanges.
- • Efficiency wins: Accumulate clean strikes.
- • Late surge: Dominate R3.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via striking efficiency and cardio superiority
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant accuracy edge (50% vs 41%)
- • Better defensive fundamentals
- • Superior cardio (65 vs 55 score)
- • Positive momentum
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Osbourne's 5-inch reach advantage
- • Early knockout power (76.9% finish)
- • Limited UFC experience for Idiris
🏁Executive Summary
Alibi Idiris enters as a moderate but deserved favorite based on superior technical fundamentals across multiple dimensions and exceptional cardiovascular conditioning. His 50% striking accuracy significantly outpaces Osbourne's 41%, representing a 9-point differential that compounds over 15 minutes of competition. Combined with better defensive fundamentals (53% vs 47% StrDef) and higher sustained output (3.47 vs 3.07 SLpM), Idiris creates cumulative advantages that build visible damage and favorable scoring optics for judges. His 90.9% career win rate and ability to win fights in R5 demonstrate exceptional conditioning that becomes increasingly decisive as fights extend. While Osbourne possesses a significant 5-inch reach advantage and dangerous early knockout power (76.9% finish rate), his 1-4 recent slide and documented cardio issues (9:42 average duration, late-round fades) suggest declining form at 34 years old with 12 UFC fights of accumulated wear. The statistical evidence heavily favors a fighter who can maintain relentless pressure, land cleaner strikes consistently, and outlast opponents over three rounds—all core strengths of Idiris's game. The 30-foot cage initially helps Osbourne's range control but gradually shifts toward Idiris's pressure as the fight progresses and Osbourne's movement slows.
Prediction: Idiris by Decision (36% probability) through sustained pressure, superior striking efficiency, and dominant R3 performance as Osbourne's cardio fades. Idiris's ability to maintain technical advantages and output deep into fights creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward. Osbourne's upset lane is early KO/TKO (24% probability), requiring him to capitalize on explosive power and reach advantage before Idiris's technical superiority and conditioning take control. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Osbourne can land the fight-ending sequence in R1-R2 or maintain perfect distance management for all 15 minutes—both challenging propositions against a pressure fighter with superior fundamentals. If the fight reaches the final round competitive, Idiris's cardio advantage becomes increasingly decisive, making his path to victory more probable than Osbourne's path of early finish or perfect distance control.