Neil Magny vs Yaroslav Amosov
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC FN: Royval vs Kape
Saturday, December 13, 2025 • UFC Apex (Small Cage)
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Jake Matthews | W | SUB - Brabo Choke (R3) |
| 2025-08-02 | Elizeu Zaleski | W | TKO - Punches (R2) |
| 2024-11-09 | Carlos Prates | L | KO - Punch (R1) |
| 2024-08-24 | Michael Morales | L | TKO - Punches (R1) |
| 2024-01-20 | Mike Malott | W | TKO - Punches (R3) |
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-14 | Curtis Millender | W | SUB - Anaconda (R1) |
| 2023-11-17 | Jason Jackson | L | KO - Punches (R3) |
| 2023-02-25 | Logan Storley | W | DEC - Unanimous (R5) |
| 2021-06-11 | Douglas Lima | W | DEC - Unanimous (R5) |
| 2020-11-12 | Logan Storley | W | DEC - Split (R3) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Magny's well-rounded game suffers from low grappling efficiency. Amosov's sambo polish yields a high score.
💪Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, and finish distribution. Amosov's 5-round history and relentless pace give him the edge over Magny's volume.
🎯Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Amosov profiles as the more complete package, while Magny is a durable volume specialist.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊Striking Composite
Magny relies on volume over power (62/100). Amosov shows cleaner entries and less absorption, leading to a higher efficiency score.
🤼Grappling Composite
Magny has decent control but low threat. Amosov's elite chain wrestling and 11 career submissions drive his massive advantage.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metric Definitions
- SLpM: Significant Strikes Landed per Minute
- StrAcc: Striking Accuracy (%)
- StrDef: Striking Defense (%)
- TD15: Takedowns Average per 15 Minutes
- TDAcc: Takedown Accuracy (%)
- TDDef: Takedown Defense (%)
- SubPer15: Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
Fight Analysis Breakdown
🚀 Neil Magny Key Advantages
Length & Jab Volume+5" Reach
Magny's 80-inch reach and lanky 6'3" frame give him a massive edge in range management, allowing him to paw out jabs and keep fights at distance. His leg reach (45 inches) helps in teep-kick setups that can disrupt Amosov's entries. In the open, Magny can pick Amosov apart with long 1-2s and front kicks, forcing the Ukrainian to reset or take desperate shots. This reach differential becomes even more critical when Magny can establish his jab early and maintain lateral movement to avoid the fence.
UFC Experience & Adaptability36 Bouts
With 36 UFC bouts under his belt, Magny has faced every archetype imaginable—from elite BJJ specialists like Demian Maia and Gilbert Burns to power punchers like Santiago Ponzinibbio and Carlos Prates. His ability to survive treacherous positions and make mid-fight adjustments allows him to drag fights into deep waters where he thrives on grit. Magny is very good at switching to clinch and dirty boxing when needed, and his experience in handling pressure wrestlers (like Michael Chiesa) gives him a blueprint for survival. This veteran savvy could prove crucial if Amosov shows any Octagon jitters in his UFC debut.
Front-Choke Threat & Cardio
Against a relentless chain wrestler like Amosov, Magny's d'Arce and Anaconda threats from front headlocks are a genuine upset path. He has multiple submission wins from these positions (including his recent Brabo choke finish of Jake Matthews), and if Amosov gets overzealous with level changes or leaves his neck exposed in a scramble, Magny has the leverage to snatch a fight-ending choke. Additionally, Magny's cardio and attrition game allow him to push pace and volume late; if Amosov's wrestling entries slow down in R2-R3, Magny's jab, knees, and front-choke series become increasingly dangerous.
🚀 Yaroslav Amosov Key Advantages
Elite Chain Wrestling & Sambo BaseSambo Base
Amosov doesn't stop at one shot; he chains doubles to singles with relentless pressure, never accepting a clean sprawl. His proven ability to outwrestle elite opposition like Lima and Logan Storley over 3-5 rounds demonstrates world-class grappling credentials. Magny's 54% TD defense is particularly exploitable here—historically, he has struggled against strong wrestlers and positional grapplers. Amosov's ability to mat-return opponents and control wrists makes him a nightmare for tall fighters like Magny who struggle to disengage their hips. Once he secures top position, his cross-wrist rides and half guard pressure neutralize guard play.
Top-Tier Finishing & Submission Game11 Subs
Unlike control-heavy wrestlers, Amosov actively hunts for the finish on the mat. With 11 career submission wins (many from his world-class sambo base), he has a very live submission game from front headlock and back control against tired or scrambling foes. Magny has 6 career submission losses and can be out-grappled and finished when flattened or back-mounted. Amosov's heavy top ground-and-pound complements his submission threat, creating a dual danger that forces opponents to make difficult choices between defending strikes or chokes. His D'Arce/anaconda series and RNC are particularly dangerous in R2-R3 when opponents are fatigued.
Small Cage Factor & Youth Advantage
The 25ft Apex cage is a silent partner for Amosov—it reduces the space Magny can use to play long-range jab-and-move by approximately 30% compared to a standard 30ft octagon. This massively boosts Amosov's ability to pin Magny to the fence, chain shots, and turn this into a clinch/wrestling fight without chasing him across a larger cage. Additionally, at 32 years old (five years Magny's junior), Amosov has fresher legs and less accumulated damage. Aside from his lone KO loss to Jason Jackson, his chin and recovery have looked excellent across 28 wins and many rounds against big punchers, while Magny's recent KO losses suggest declining durability.
📋 Magny's Optimal Gameplan
Magny must establish his jab constantly to disrupt entries and mix low calf kicks to slow Amosov's level changes. He needs to use lateral movement, not linear retreat, to avoid backing straight to the fence. When Amosov changes levels, Magny should use intercepting knees and uppercuts rather than pure sprawls. The goal is to win on pace and volume over 3 rounds, testing Amosov's cardio in his UFC debut.
Selective Clinch & Front-Choke ThreatsMagny should engage clinch only when he has underhooks and head position; otherwise, separate quickly. He must threaten front headlocks on telegraphed shots but avoid pulling guard or extended bottom play. If Amosov shoots sloppily or overcommits, Magny's d'Arce/anaconda series become live upset paths. The veteran needs to force a 29-28 decision by keeping takedowns under 2 completed attempts and out-landing at range.
📋 Amosov's Optimal Gameplan
Amosov should use small steps, feints, and a probing jab/low-kick to back Magny up, then shoot on the fence. He needs to pressure early with minimal mid-cage kickboxing exchanges, cutting off Magny's escape routes in the small cage. Once Magny is pinned, Amosov must chain-wrestle relentlessly: double → single → body lock → trips, never accepting a clean sprawl or stalemate.
Wear Down & Open Up for FinishesOnce on top, Amosov should prioritize control (cross-wrist rides, half guard smash) over reckless ground-and-pound early. As Magny gets up repeatedly, his long frame becomes more available for back-takes and front chokes. In R2-R3, if Magny's neck is exposed from desperation scrambles, Amosov should attack D'Arce/anaconda series and RNC. His "safe dominant" path is top-control decision, but his upside lies in turning that control into late submissions or attritional TKO.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
The dimensions of the UFC Apex (25ft) versus a standard arena (30ft) play a decisive role in this matchup. Magny's striking differential (+5" reach) is most effective when he has room to cycle out and reset. The smaller cage condenses the fighting area by approximately 30%, reducing the time Amosov needs to bridge the gap and significantly favoring the aggressor. This dynamic means Magny will constantly feel the fence at his back, limiting his ability to use lateral movement and creating more opportunities for Amosov to pin him and initiate chain wrestling sequences.
Strategic Implications: Amosov's path to victory is securing 3+ takedowns and >6-7 minutes of top control. If he succeeds, Magny's volume becomes largely irrelevant as judges will favor control time and damage. Conversely, Magny must keep Amosov under 2 completed takedowns and punish level changes with intercepting strikes and front headlock threats to have a realistic shot at winning a decision.
🥊Striking vs Grappling Control Battle
This fight represents a classic clash between Magny's volume-based striking approach and Amosov's elite grappling control. Magny's 3.43 SLpM and 46% accuracy reflect a volume-over-power philosophy that has served him well against 36 UFC opponents. However, his 52% striking defense and 2.48 strikes absorbed per minute show vulnerability to clean entries—exactly what Amosov's 4.2 SLpM and 52% accuracy can exploit. On the mat, the gap widens dramatically: Amosov's 4.8 TD15 average and 48% accuracy far exceed Magny's 2.12 TD15 and 39% accuracy, while Magny's 54% takedown defense is particularly exploitable against chain wrestling.
Key Battle: The fight's outcome hinges on whether Magny can stuff enough takedowns to keep the fight standing for the majority of rounds. If Amosov routinely completes 3+ takedowns and maintains >6-7 minutes of top control, Magny's win chances drop into the low 20s. However, if Magny can keep takedowns under 2 and land clean shots on entries, his volume and experience could steal close rounds.
⏱️Cardio & Late-Round Dynamics
Both fighters have proven cardio credentials, but they manifest differently. Magny's 68/100 cardio score reflects his ability to sustain 3.43 SLpM over extended periods, though recent gassings suggest some decline at 37 years old. His 21 wins in Round 3 demonstrate a clear bias toward late finishes, particularly opportunistic R3 finishes when opponents slow down. Amosov's 82/100 cardio score comes from his proven ability to go 5 rounds with elite opposition (Lima, Storley), maintaining relentless pressure and chain wrestling throughout. His 14+ minute average fight time and 71% finish rate show he can both grind decisions and finish tired opponents.
Late-Round Scenarios: If the fight reaches R3 with Magny ahead on volume, his front-choke threats become increasingly dangerous as Amosov's entries potentially become more desperate. Conversely, if Amosov has controlled R1-R2 with takedowns and top control, R3 becomes his prime opportunity to hunt submissions or finish with ground-and-pound as Magny's long frame becomes more fatigued and available for back-takes.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 20.5% | Odds: +388
GOOD VALUE
Model: 60%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Neil Magny
Out-voluming over 3 rounds
Opportunistic R3 finishes
Front-choke threats
🏆Outcome Distribution - Yaroslav Amosov
Top control domination
RNC / Chokes from back
Ground and pound
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear stylistic edge for Amosov vs Magny's grappling holes.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite chain wrestling vs 54% TD defense
- • Age/Damage profile favors Amosov (32 vs 37)
- • Small cage strongly benefits pressure
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Amosov's UFC Debut (nerves/judging)
- • Magny's vast experience edge
- • Front-choke threat if entries are sloppy
🏁Executive Summary
This matchup represents a classic "Veteran Gatekeeper vs. Undefeated Phenom" collision, exacerbated by the small 25ft Apex cage. Neil Magny, the all-time wins leader at welterweight with 36 UFC bouts, brings unparalleled experience and a volume-based striking game built around his 80-inch reach. His ability to make mid-fight adjustments and threaten front chokes gives him a genuine upset path, particularly if Amosov shows Octagon jitters in his UFC debut. However, Magny's 54% takedown defense and historical struggles against elite grapplers create a significant stylistic disadvantage.
Yaroslav Amosov, the former Bellator champion with a 28-1 record and world-class sambo base, enters with elite chain wrestling credentials proven against top-tier opposition. His ability to outwrestle Douglas Lima and Logan Storley over 5 rounds demonstrates the kind of relentless pressure and top control that directly targets Magny's defensive weaknesses. The small cage amplifies Amosov's pressure grappling while hindering Magny's distance management, creating an environment where Amosov can pin Magny to the fence and chain takedowns without chasing him across a larger octagon.
Our 69/31 model essentially assumes that in the majority of iterations, Amosov successfully forces a wrestling-heavy fight, neutralizing Magny's reach by controlling location and dictating pace. Magny's length and experience steal some close decisions or opportunistic subs/late TKOs in the remaining scenarios, but the stylistic matchup and cage dynamics heavily favor the Ukrainian debutant.
Prediction: We strongly favor Yaroslav Amosov to win via wrestling-heavy Decision (30-27) or Submission (R2-R3). Magny's best path to victory requires keeping takedowns under 2 completed attempts and winning on volume/pace, but Amosov's elite chain wrestling and the small cage make this outcome less likely than the Ukrainian controlling top position and either grinding out a decision or finding a late submission finish.