Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Marcus Buchecha
Men's Heavyweight Bout • UFC FN: Royval vs Kape
Saturday, December 13, 2025 • UFC Apex (25ft, Small Cage)
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Marcus Buchecha
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62.0 vs 48.0) and Grappling Composite (48.0 vs 42.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction & Analysis
Kennedy Nzechukwu
70%Marcus Buchecha
30%Kennedy's Striking Dominance
Kennedy's massive striking advantage (5.37 SLpM vs 1.60 SLpM) combined with his 6-inch reach advantage creates a significant problem for Buchecha. The data shows Kennedy landing at triple the output while maintaining better accuracy (47% vs 40%). His 80% stand-up striking rate and 81% TDD means he controls where this fight takes place. Recent form shows back-to-back R1 KOs against heavyweight competition, validating his power translates to the division.
Buchecha's Submission Threat Window
Buchecha's path to victory is narrow but real: his world-class BJJ (80% of wins via submission, multiple IBJJF/ADCC titles) targets Kennedy's documented heel-hook vulnerability (lost to Walker via heel hook in 54 seconds). The small 25ft cage helps close distance, but his dismal 9% TD accuracy in UFC and Kennedy's 81% TDD create a matchup nightmare. If Buchecha secures early entanglements in the first 3-5 minutes, his leg-lock and back-take sequences are elite-level dangerous.
Statistical Mismatch
The data paints a decisive picture: Kennedy edges every UFC metric—striking output (3.4x higher), accuracy (+7%), defense (-1% but functional), and critically, TDD/TDAcc disparity (81% vs 9% is a 900% efficiency gap). Buchecha's 0% TDD in his UFC debut signals grappling defense issues. Kennedy's average 8:57 fight duration with 71% KO rate suggests early finishes when controlling range, exactly where this matchup projects to stay given the TDD numbers.
Critical Factors
- •Small Cage Impact: 25ft octagon reduces Kennedy's space to circle but also condenses Buchecha's entry windows—makes intercepts easier to land.
- •Experience Gap: Kennedy's 14 UFC fights (8-6) vs Buchecha's 1 (0-1) shows Octagon-specific adjustments that can't be measured in ONE Championship data.
- •Leg-Lock Defense: Kennedy's recent heel-hook loss keeps Buchecha's submission path live; any extended leg entanglements favor the BJJ legend.
Most Likely Outcome
Kennedy Nzechukwu banks damage with his long southpaw jab and left hands, sprawls Buchecha's early takedown attempts (likely 2-3 total), and either secures a KO/TKO inside 2 rounds (48% probability) or racks up a clear 29-28/30-27 decision (18%). The striking/TDD math is too decisive.
Buchecha's 22% submission equity is concentrated in the first round if he can finish takedown chains quickly before Kennedy's length and output establish rhythm. After minute 5-7, cardio tax and accumulated damage shift odds further toward Kennedy.
Confident due to measured stats showing decisive edges in output and TDD. Caution: small cage + Kennedy's heel-hook vulnerability keep Buchecha's early submission path live.
💰 Market Odds & Betting Analysis
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Marcus Buchecha
💎Top Value Opportunities
Our 70% model probability suggests value at current market odds. Kennedy's striking volume and TDD advantages are underpriced given the data.
48% model probability on this method makes +108 excellent value. Kennedy's recent R1 KOs and striking output support this path.
65% probability based on Kennedy's 8:57 avg duration and 71% KO rate. Either early Kennedy finish or early Buchecha submission keeps this under.