Morgan Charriere vs Melquizael Costa
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Saturday, December 13, 2025 • UFC Apex (25ft Small Cage)
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Morgan Charriere
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Melquizael Costa
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Morgan Charriere
Last 5 Fights - Melquizael Costa
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
Advanced statistical comparison across key MMA metrics
📖Metric Definitions
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
Head-to-head breakdown of all key performance indicators
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Morgan Charriere Key Advantages
Charriere's explosive striking generates consistent knockout threats with 62% of career wins by KO/TKO and multiple first-round finishes. His ability to end fights with single shots creates constant danger, especially in early exchanges where Costa's defense may not yet be calibrated. The French striker's varied arsenal including body kicks and power punches provides multiple paths to finish.
Charriere's 83% takedown defense versus Costa's 35% accuracy creates a massive stylistic mismatch. If Charriere can neutralize Costa's grappling and keep the fight standing, his striking advantages compound. His elite sprawl allows him to maintain offensive pressure while defending takedowns, forcing Costa into uncomfortable striking exchanges where power differential favors the Frenchman.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The 25-foot Apex cage reduces Charriere's ability to circle and reset between exchanges. Costa's persistent pressure forces prolonged fence work where grappling angles tighten and extended clinch sequences become more frequent. Limited space compounds Costa's ability to chain entries and accumulate control time, potentially overwhelming Charriere's defensive scheme through sheer persistence.
Charriere's 9:50 average fight duration shows limited experience in extended, grinding exchanges. If forced into prolonged fence work with Costa, his explosive reserves may deplete faster than the Brazilian's superior cardio endurance. Costa's ability to maintain 3.86 SLpM output while absorbing minimal damage suggests sustainable pace that could wear down Charriere's defensive shell over three rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Charriere should maximize explosive striking output in the opening rounds before Costa's grinding style establishes control. Heavy focus on body kicks and power striking to stun and damage Costa early, creating finish opportunities. His 62% KO rate is most dangerous in fresh exchanges where explosive entries can close fights quickly before extended fence work depletes his reserves.
Leverage elite 83% TDD to keep fights standing and dictate range on feet. Use footwork and lateral movement to avoid extended clinch sequences. When Costa shoots, execute sharp sprawls and immediately transition to striking counters. This approach minimizes extended fence control situations where Costa accumulates advantages through grinding pressure.
🚀 Melquizael Costa Key Advantages
Costa's 2.72 strikes absorbed per minute versus Charriere's 4.15 represents a 53% advantage in damage management. This superior defensive striking creates a framework where Costa sustains output over three rounds while Charriere accumulates visible damage. In the small Apex cage where extended exchanges are inevitable, this gap compounds on scorecards as judges reward damage efficiency.
Costa's 1.22 submission attempts per 15 minutes with two recent UFC submissions (guillotine vs Fili, face crank vs Nuerdanbieke) demonstrates legitimate finish capability. His Chute Boxe grappling creates genuine tap-out equity that Charriere has never faced in UFC, adding another dangerous dimension beyond striking and control time.
Costa rides a four-fight win streak with peak form and confidence. His 10:14 average duration exceeds Charriere's 9:50, suggesting superior cardio management. The Brazilian's ability to maintain 3.86 SLpM output while absorbing minimal damage indicates sustainable pace that can overwhelm explosive athletes in later rounds.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Charriere's 62% career KO rate creates genuine finish threat in opening minutes before Costa establishes grappling control. The Frenchman's explosive striking power could stun or damage Costa if exchanges remain in the pocket. Charriere's ability to land single shots with high impact demands Costa respect distance and avoid reckless entries during fresh rounds.
Charriere's 83% TDD is elite-level, potentially neutralizing Costa's grappling entries and forcing extended striking exchanges. If Costa cannot establish consistent control, his grinding pressure strategy loses effectiveness. The Brazilian must chain multiple entries and avoid getting frustrated by sprawls, as predictable patterns play into Charriere's counter-striking strengths.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Costa should leverage the small Apex cage to cut angles and force Charriere into prolonged fence exchanges. Constant pressure with jab-low kick combinations sets up grappling entries. The goal is accumulating control time through clinch work and chain wrestling sequences. Avoid extended striking exchanges where Charriere's explosive power poses threats—keep tempo tight against the fence.
Execute multiple takedown attempts per round to establish grappling threat and accumulate control time. Use clinch work to manage Charriere's striking output and capitalize on sprawl mistakes. Once mounted, focus on positional control and submission hunting—particularly rear-naked chokes and guillotine entries. This approach compounds advantages over three rounds as Charriere's energy depletes.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot UFC Apex cage creates compressed dynamics favoring Costa's pressure-grappling approach over Charriere's counter-striking game. Limited space reduces Charriere's ability to circle and reset after exchanges, forcing him into prolonged fence work where Costa's clinch skills and chain wrestling can accumulate control time. While Charriere's 83% takedown defense is elite, the small cage amplifies Costa's ability to cut angles and force grappling sequences through sheer persistence.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical differentials reveal contrasting approaches: Costa's 2.72 SApM versus Charriere's 4.15 creates a 53% damage economy advantage that compounds over three rounds. While Charriere's 62% KO rate creates explosive finish threat, Costa's grinding style (10:14 avg duration) with 1.22 SubPer15 submission volume provides multiple paths to victory. The key battleground is Charriere's 83% TDD versus Costa's 35% TD accuracy—if Charriere neutralizes takedowns, his striking power dominates; if Costa establishes grappling control, his submission threat and damage efficiency become decisive.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical exchanges will determine the outcome: initial takedown defense versus persistent pressure, explosive striking versus damage accumulation, and early-round power versus late-round conditioning. Charriere must capitalize on his first-six-minute window where explosive striking and elite TDD are freshest. Costa's path requires surviving early storms, establishing cumulative pressure, and leveraging superior cardio management to break Charriere's defensive shell in later rounds when fatigue compounds defensive lapses.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Melquizael Costa by Decision (38% probability) through sustained pressure, superior damage economy, and cumulative control time over three rounds. Costa's submission path (16%) becomes viable when grappling sequences force Charriere into unfamiliar defensive positions where the Brazilian's technical advantage creates finish opportunities. Charriere's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (22%) capitalizing on his explosive power before Costa's grinding style takes effect. The French striker's decision path (14%) requires maintaining elite TDD throughout while landing enough clean power shots to overcome Costa's superior damage management.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 38% | Fair: +163
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% | Fair: +355
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 52% | Fair: -108
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues TDD advantage – Charriere's 83% defense creates pure striking scenarios market underprices.
- • Overprices small cage effect – Limited space helps Costa but doesn't fully negate elite TDD.
- • Sleeping on early KO equity – Charriere's 62% KO rate creates first-round value.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Melquizael Costa
Primary path via pressure and damage economy
Chute Boxe grappling creates tap-out equity
Accumulative damage over sustained pressure
💥Outcome Distribution - Morgan Charriere
Best lane via explosive early power striking
Requires elite TDD maintenance throughout
Low submission profile limits tap-out path
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Morgan Charriere
- • First 6 minutes: Highest KO equity while fresh and explosive.
- • TDD priority: Elite sprawl neutralizes Costa's entries.
- • Power bursts: Hunt finish before grinding takes effect.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Melquizael Costa
- • Persistent pressure: Chain attempts drain explosive reserves.
- • Damage economy: Absorb less while landing more.
- • Late control: Round 3 dominance via superior cardio.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via damage economy and submission threat
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive SApM differential (2.72 vs 4.15)
- • Small cage amplifies Costa's pressure style
- • Submission threat (1.22 SubPer15) adds finish path
- • Four-fight win streak shows peak form
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Charriere's elite 83% TDD can neutralize grappling
- • Early KO power (62% KO rate) creates first-round threat
- • Costa's 35% TD accuracy may struggle vs sprawl
🏁Executive Summary
Melquizael Costa's systematic pressure approach should steadily compress the 25-foot Apex cage space and accumulate scoring advantages through superior damage economy (2.72 vs 4.15 SApM), while Morgan Charriere's best equity centers on explosive early knockouts before the Brazilian's grinding style takes hold. The statistical differentials favor Costa: his damage management paired with 1.22 submission attempts per 15 minutes creates multiple victory paths beyond pure striking. Costa's 10:14 average fight duration with 54% of career wins finishing in Round 3 demonstrates exceptional late-fight effectiveness, while Charriere's 9:50 duration and alternating win-loss pattern suggest consistency challenges over sustained periods.
Prediction: Costa by Decision most likely (38% probability) through persistent pressure, superior damage economy, and cumulative control time; Charriere's upset lane is early KO/TKO (22%) via explosive power striking before Costa's cardio and grappling become decisive factors. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Charriere can capitalize on his first-six-minute power window and elite TDD before Costa's grinding style and submission threats accumulate decisive advantages.