Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 325
Saturday, January 31, 2026 • Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Jacob Malkoun
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Torrez Finney
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jacob Malkoun
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-30 | Andre Petroski | W | TKO - Strikes (R2, 0:39) |
| 2023-09-23 | Cody Brundage | L | DQ - Illegal Knee (R1, 4:15) |
| 2022-10-15 | Nick Maximov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-06-11 | Brendan Allen | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-02-12 | AJ Dobson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Torrez Finney
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Robert Valentin | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-01 | Abdellah Er-Ramy | W | TKO - Ground and Pound (R1, 4:10) |
| 2024-08-20 | Cam Rowston | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Tyson Jeffries | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 1:33) |
| 2023-10-10 | Yuri Panferov | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 2:43) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (56.0 vs 49.0) and Grappling Composite (41.0 vs 53.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Jacob Malkoun Key Advantages
Malkoun ranks among the top middleweight control time specialists in the UFC. His ability to chain takedowns, maintain top position, and accumulate control minutes is elite. Once he establishes position in half guard or side control, he's extremely difficult to escape from.
With 3.86 strikes landed per minute compared to Finney's 1.77, Malkoun provides significantly more striking output. While Finney is more accurate (69% vs 56%), Malkoun's volume advantage means he's likely to land more total strikes over the course of the fight.
Malkoun's cardio score of 64 represents a significant edge over Finney's 53. With an average fight duration of 10:02, Malkoun has proven he can maintain pace throughout three rounds. Five of his eight career wins came in round 3.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Finney's 72.7% finish rate and heavy hands represent genuine knockout danger, especially in the first round. Malkoun's 52% striking defense is only average.
Malkoun's 20% takedown defense is a glaring weakness. Finney is an elite offensive wrestler with 9.31 takedowns per 15 minutes at 60% accuracy.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Malkoun should use jabs and feints to close distance, then chain wrestling sequences to get to the fence. The big cage space helps him work angles.
Once Malkoun establishes top position, his priority should be maintaining control and landing safe ground-and-pound. Mat returns and positional control should be the focus.
🚀 Torrez Finney Key Advantages
Finney's 9.31 takedowns per 15 minutes at 60% accuracy is among the highest in the middleweight division. Against Malkoun's 20% takedown defense, Finney has a clear path to establishing his own top position.
With 7 KO/TKO wins and 1 submission in 11 fights, Finney finishes opponents at an elite rate. His ground-and-pound is particularly dangerous. His undefeated 11-0 record speaks to his ability to close out fights decisively.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Malkoun establishes his grinding top game, Finney could find himself stuck on his back for extended periods. Malkoun's ride control means escape becomes difficult.
Finney's muscular, explosive frame comes with cardio trade-offs. His split decision win over Robert Valentin showed him slowing in later rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Finney should look to establish dominance early, using his explosive wrestling to test Malkoun's takedown defense. His reach advantage (75" vs 73") allows threatening strikes while setting up level changes.
With four first-round finishes in 11 wins, Finney's best path is ending the fight before Malkoun's cardio becomes a factor. Conserving energy for decision plays into Malkoun's strengths.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon at Qudos Bank Arena provides ample space for both wrestlers to work. Malkoun benefits from the larger cage as it allows him to use lateral movement and work angles before committing to takedown entries. However, Finney's explosive blast doubles can cover distance quickly, negating some of this advantage. The key battleground will be the fence, where both fighters excel at establishing control and working their grappling.
🎯Technical Breakdown
This matchup pits Malkoun's control-oriented wrestling against Finney's explosive takedown offense. Malkoun's 6.62 TD/15 shows consistent pressure, while Finney's 9.31 TD/15 at 60% accuracy represents higher-ceiling explosiveness. The critical x-factor is Malkoun's 20% takedown defense—if Finney can consistently win wrestling exchanges, he neutralizes Malkoun's primary path to victory. Conversely, Malkoun's superior control metrics (top-3 in MW for control time) mean that if he establishes position, he can accumulate decisive scoring.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first-layer wrestling exchanges at the fence, cardio durability in rounds 2-3, and damage accumulation. Malkoun's proven 3-round gas tank and Finney's explosive early-round style create a time-sensitive dynamic—Finney needs to establish dominance before fatigue becomes a factor. Malkoun's path runs through patient pressure, controlling pace, and grinding out later rounds where his conditioning edge becomes decisive.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Jacob Malkoun by Decision (40% probability), achieved through consistent control time, superior cardio management, and grinding pressure over three rounds. Malkoun's KO/TKO path (16%) becomes viable through accumulated ground-and-pound in later rounds. Finney's best path is early KO/TKO (19%) via explosive wrestling and heavy ground-and-pound before Malkoun's grinding game takes effect. The undefeated prospect represents a genuine upset threat, but Malkoun's experience against higher-level competition gives him the edge.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 40% | Fair: +150
GOOD VALUE
Model: 19% | Fair: +426
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 68% | Fair: -213
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Finney hype premium – Undefeated record inflates market odds beyond skill differential.
- • Undervalues Malkoun's control game – Elite control metrics not fully priced in.
- • Cardio edge overlooked – 3-round fighter vs explosive finisher favors the grinder.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jacob Malkoun
Primary path via control time and grinding
Late-round GNP accumulation
Low historical submission profile
💥Outcome Distribution - Torrez Finney
Best lane via explosive wrestling and GNP
Requires winning wrestling exchanges throughout
Opportunistic RNC or arm triangle
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Torrez Finney
- • First 5-7 minutes: Highest KO/TKO equity via fresh explosiveness.
- • Early wrestling: Must establish dominance before Malkoun settles.
- • Power shots: Target Malkoun during takedown entries.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Jacob Malkoun
- • Survive early storm: Weather Finney's initial explosiveness.
- • Control accumulation: Bank minutes through rides and returns.
- • Late-round dominance: Cardio edge becomes decisive factor.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid edge via experience and cardio, but Finney upside creates variance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Good UFC data on Malkoun across 7 fights
- • Elite control metrics favor grinding style
- • Cardio edge aligns with fight length
- • Higher level of competition faced
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Finney undefeated with unknown ceiling
- • Small UFC sample size for Finney
- • Malkoun's low TDDef creates vulnerability
🏁Executive Summary
This matchup pits proven UFC control specialist Jacob Malkoun against undefeated rising prospect Torrez Finney in a classic experience-vs-upside battle. Malkoun's elite control metrics, superior cardio, and history against high-level opposition (Allen, Petroski) give him the edge in a grinding three-round affair. However, Finney's explosive wrestling (9.31 TD/15) and finishing power (72.7% finish rate) create genuine upset potential, especially if he can establish early dominance before Malkoun's grinding game takes effect.
Prediction: Jacob Malkoun by Decision most likely (40% probability) through consistent control time and late-round grinding; Finney's best path is early KO/TKO (19%) via explosive wrestling and heavy ground-and-pound. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Finney can establish early wrestling dominance or whether Malkoun's cardio and control game grinds the prospect down over three rounds.