Cam Rowston vs Cody Brundage
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2
Saturday, January 31, 2026 • Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Cam Rowston
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Cody Brundage
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cam Rowston
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Andre Petroski | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 2:41) |
| 2025-08-19 | Brandon Holmes | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 2:58) |
| 2025-02-08 | Alfred Stoddart | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-30 | Blair Bretag | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:54) |
| 2024-10-25 | Aerdake Apaer | W | Submission - Calf Slicer (R2, 2:59) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cody Brundage
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | Eric McConico | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-14 | Mansur Abdul-Malik | D | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-01 | Julian Marquez | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 4:45) |
| 2024-07-13 | Abdul Razak Alhassan | NC | No Contest (R1, 0:37) |
| 2024-04-13 | Bo Nickal | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:38) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72.0 vs 63.0) and Grappling Composite (61.0 vs 74.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Cam Rowston Key Advantages
Rowston's 78-inch reach compared to Brundage's 72-inch creates a significant striking distance advantage. His 6'3" height allows him to utilize jabs, long kicks, and knees from range that Brundage cannot match. This physical edge enables Rowston to control distance, time entries, and land clean shots while staying outside Brundage's power range. The City Kickboxing footwork training maximizes this advantage by maintaining optimal spacing.
Rowston lands 3.39 significant strikes per minute compared to Brundage's 2.20—a 54% higher output that creates substantial scoring differentials in stand-up exchanges. Combined with his reach advantage, this volume ensures Rowston controls the striking narrative and forces Brundage to commit to takedowns or risk being out-pointed. His ability to maintain high output without sacrificing defense (only 2.37 SApM) shows efficient energy management.
Rowston's 92.3% career finish rate demonstrates elite finishing instincts across multiple disciplines—5 KO/TKOs and 7 submissions. His submission variety (RNC, calf slicer) shows dangerous ground skills that could punish Brundage's aggressive wrestling entries. When Brundage commits to takedowns, Rowston's ability to find necks and legs in scrambles represents a significant threat.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Rowston's 28% takedown defense is alarmingly low for UFC competition. If Brundage can consistently get fights to the mat with his 2.05 TD/15 rate, he can control rounds through top position and ground-and-pound. This vulnerability represents the clearest path to victory for Brundage.
If Brundage effectively cuts off the cage and forces Rowston to fight with his back against the fence, takedown entries become significantly easier. The 30-foot cage provides space initially, but aggressive pressure can compress that space quickly.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Rowston should utilize the large cage to maintain distance, work behind a jab, and punish Brundage's entries with knees and uppercuts. Lateral movement is key to avoiding cage pressure while keeping his reach advantage active.
Low kicks and body shots should be prioritized to slow Brundage's forward pressure and sap his cardio for wrestling later in the fight. These attacks complement the reach advantage and create openings for counter shots.
🚀 Cody Brundage Key Advantages
Brundage's 2.05 takedowns per 15 minutes versus Rowston's 0.73 represents a 2.8x differential that could dictate fight location. More critically, Rowston's 28% takedown defense versus Brundage's 68% creates a massive disparity in ability to control where the fight takes place. Factory X's wrestling-heavy training prepares Brundage for chain wrestling sequences that can overwhelm opponents with poor takedown defense.
With 9 UFC fights compared to Rowston's 2, Brundage brings substantially more octagon experience. He has faced elite-level competition including Bo Nickal and shown the ability to win against quality opponents like Julian Marquez. This experience advantage could prove crucial if the fight becomes chaotic or requires mid-fight adjustments.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Rowston maintains distance and fights from range, Brundage's shorter reach becomes a significant liability. His 2.20 SLpM suggests he struggles to land in extended striking exchanges, and the 6-inch reach disadvantage compounds this issue against a disciplined striker.
While Brundage needs to take the fight down, Rowston's 7 career submissions make grappling exchanges dangerous. Brundage has been submitted before (by Nickal, Vieira) and cannot afford to expose his neck during scrambles or transition attempts.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Brundage must aggressively cut off the cage and force Rowston to fight near the fence where takedown entries are easier. Mixing level changes with power shots keeps Rowston guessing and opens wrestling opportunities.
Once on top, Brundage should prioritize positional control over submissions—avoiding scrambles where Rowston's submission skills are dangerous. Ground-and- pound from half guard or mount accumulates damage while minimizing risk of exposing his neck.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot large cage initially favors Rowston's length and footwork, providing space to maintain distance and work his jab. However, Brundage's cage-cutting ability and wrestling pressure can compress that space over time. The key battleground is whether Brundage can trap Rowston against the fence before taking significant striking damage.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The fight presents a classic striker vs. wrestler dynamic with a twist—both fighters have finishing ability in grappling. Rowston's 3.39 SLpM and 6-inch reach advantage favor him in open exchanges, but his 28% takedown defense represents a significant vulnerability. Brundage's 2.05 TD/15 rate gives him the tools to exploit this weakness, but he must navigate Rowston's dangerous submission game when the fight hits the mat.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical areas will determine the outcome: distance management in the first round, Rowston's ability to stuff or punish takedown attempts, and submission danger in scrambles. If Rowston can establish his range game early and defend takedowns through the first round, Brundage may become gun-shy about committing to shots. Conversely, if Brundage secures early takedowns and controls position, he can grind out rounds while minimizing Rowston's offensive opportunities.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Cam Rowston by KO/TKO (26% probability), achieved through counter strikes as Brundage commits to takedowns or accumulative damage from range. Rowston's decision path (22%) is also viable if he can defend enough takedowns to keep the fight standing. Brundage's best chance is submission (18%) through top control and ground-and-pound setups, though he must be careful not to expose his neck against Rowston's dangerous guard.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 26% | Fair: +285
GOOD VALUE
Model: 18% | Fair: +456
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Fair: -150
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Rowston's TDDef overlooked – 28% rate may be underweighted by market favoring his momentum.
- • Brundage experience discount – Market may undervalue his UFC pedigree despite recent losses.
- • Finish rate favors Under – Combined 87% finish rate suggests early stoppage likely.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Cam Rowston
Primary path via range striking and counters
Outpointing from range with volume
Catches neck or legs in scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Cody Brundage
Best lane via top control after takedowns
Power shot or GNP finish from top
Three rounds of wrestling control
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Cody Brundage
- • First 5 minutes: Best takedown opportunities before damage accumulates.
- • Cage pressure: Must trap Rowston early to implement wrestling.
- • Early clinch: Best chance to negate reach before range establishes.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Cam Rowston
- • Range establishment: Jab and movement to score early.
- • Cardio advantage: 75 vs 65 score becomes decisive late.
- • Counter opportunities: Punish telegraphed shots as Brundage tires.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via striking and reach, but TDDef vulnerability creates uncertainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant reach advantage (+6") and height edge
- • Higher striking volume (3.39 vs 2.20 SLpM)
- • Better cardio score (75 vs 65)
- • 5-fight win streak with 92.3% finish rate
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Alarming 28% takedown defense rate
- • Limited UFC experience (2 fights)
- • Brundage's 2.05 TD/15 vs low TDDef is dangerous
🏁Executive Summary
Cam Rowston enters as a rising prospect with elite physical tools and finishing ability, while Cody Brundage brings UFC experience and wrestling pressure. The statistical differentials favor Rowston: his 3.39 SLpM vs Brundage's 2.20, 6-inch reach advantage, and superior cardio score (75 vs 65) suggest he controls the fight when standing. However, his 28% takedown defense versus Brundage's 2.05 TD/15 creates a clear path to victory for the Factory X wrestler. The large cage favors Rowston's movement, but Brundage's experience and cage-cutting ability could compress that space.
Prediction: Rowston by KO/TKO most likely (26% probability) through counter strikes as Brundage commits to takedowns, followed by decision (22%) if he can defend enough shots. Brundage's upset lane is submission (18%) via top control after takedowns, though he must navigate Rowston's dangerous guard. The fight likely ends inside the distance given both fighters' high finish rates.