Giga Chikadze vs Kevin Vallejos
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Saturday, December 13, 2025 • UFC Apex (25ft, Small Cage)
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Giga Chikadze
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Kevin Vallejos
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Giga Chikadze
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | David Onama | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-27 | Arnold Allen | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-26 | Alex Caceres | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-01-15 | Calvin Kattar | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2021-08-28 | Edson Barboza | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R3, 1:44) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Kevin Vallejos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Danny Silva | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-15 | Seung Woo Choi | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 3:09) |
| 2024-09-24 | Cam Teague | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 1:23) |
| 2024-03-02 | Gonzalo Contreras | W | KO - Punch (R2, 4:56) |
| 2023-12-22 | Maximiliano Perez | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R3, 2:45) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72.0 vs 78.0) and Grappling Composite (45.0 vs 32.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Giga Chikadze Key Advantages
Chikadze's 74-inch reach vs Vallejos' 68-inch represents a significant 6-inch advantage that allows him to control distance effectively. His karate-based style emphasizes precise long-range strikes—teeps, front kicks to the body, and straight punches—that can keep Vallejos at bay. The 60% striking defense shows his ability to maintain distance while avoiding incoming fire. In the 25ft cage, this reach advantage becomes more pronounced as space is limited, forcing Vallejos to cover more ground to close distance, exposing him to counters and intercepts.
With 11 UFC fights vs Vallejos' 2, Chikadze brings significant Octagon experience against elite competition. His fights with Calvin Kattar, Edson Barboza, and Arnold Allen demonstrate adaptability under pressure and familiarity with championship-level pacing. His 13:24 average fight duration shows comfort in extended exchanges and ability to maintain technical discipline over three rounds. This experience differential is critical in the small cage where tactical adjustments mid-fight become essential—Chikadze can read patterns and exploit openings more effectively.
Chikadze's 60% striking defense vs Vallejos' 57% shows superior defensive awareness. His 3.48 SApM vs Vallejos' 5.7 reveals he absorbs significantly less damage—a 2.22 strikes per minute differential that compounds over three rounds. This defensive efficiency means Chikadze can maintain his technical game plan without accumulating damage, while Vallejos' aggressive style leaves him vulnerable to clean counters. The karate-based footwork and angles allow Chikadze to reset and avoid prolonged exchanges where Vallejos' volume could overwhelm.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Vallejos successfully closes distance and maintains pressure in the small cage, Chikadze's striking output (3.82 SLpM) could be neutralized. The 25ft cage limits retreat space, forcing Chikadze into pocket exchanges where Vallejos' 6.48 SLpM volume advantage becomes dangerous. Chikadze's recent losses to Onama and Allen both featured opponents who successfully pressured and limited his range control—a blueprint Vallejos can exploit with his aggressive style.
Vallejos' 81% finish rate with 69% KO/TKO wins demonstrates power that can end fights early. His 6:51 average duration with multiple R1 finishes shows he capitalizes on openings quickly. If Chikadze becomes tentative or defensive after eating a clean shot, Vallejos can swarm and finish—the small cage amplifies this danger by reducing escape routes and forcing engagement where one mistake can be decisive.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Chikadze should prioritize teeps, front kicks, and long straight punches to keep Vallejos at distance. His karate footwork allows lateral movement and angle creation—circling off the cage when pressured and resetting to center. By maintaining his preferred range, Chikadze can rack up clean shots (43% accuracy) while minimizing risk. The key is avoiding prolonged exchanges where Vallejos' volume overwhelms.
Target Vallejos' body with kicks and knees to slow his pressure over three rounds. His 6:51 average duration suggests potential cardio vulnerabilities if forced to fight at a measured pace rather than his preferred blitz style. By attacking the body early, Chikadze can drain Vallejos' gas tank and reduce his volume in rounds 2-3, where the veteran's experience and conditioning advantages manifest.
🚀 Kevin Vallejos Key Advantages
Vallejos' 6.48 SLpM vs Chikadze's 3.82 represents a massive 70% striking output advantage that can overwhelm opponents in the small cage. His 51% accuracy ensures volume translates to clean shots, not just activity. The 25ft cage forces constant engagement—Vallejos can cut angles and pressure relentlessly without giving Chikadze space to reset. His 81% finish rate with quick stoppages (6:51 avg) shows he capitalizes when opponents are hurt, creating finish equity with every exchange.
Vallejos enters on a 2-fight UFC win streak with a devastating R1 KO over Seung Woo Choi. His DWCS KO performance demonstrates finish ability under pressure—the young Argentine is riding high confidence with nothing to lose. At 23 years old, he's in physical prime with explosive speed and power. This fearless aggression contrasts with Chikadze's 2-fight losing streak, potentially creating a mental edge where Vallejos can impose his will early.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Chikadze successfully maintains distance with teeps and front kicks, Vallejos' 6-inch reach disadvantage becomes paralyzing. Chasing shots while eating counters drains energy and discourages pressure—the Georgian's defensive discipline (60% StrDef) means clean entries are rare. Vallejos' high absorption rate (5.7 SApM) could see him accumulate damage trying to close distance, leading to a lopsided decision or late stoppage.
Vallejos' 6:51 average duration raises questions about his ability to maintain 6.48 SLpM output over three hard rounds against elite opposition. His limited UFC experience (2 fights) means he's untested in deep waters against technical strikers. If Chikadze survives the early storm and drags him into round 3, Vallejos may fade—his aggressive style is energy-intensive, and Chikadze's body kicks could accelerate the decline.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Vallejos must press forward immediately, using feints and level changes to close distance. Once inside, unleash combinations—2-3 punch bursts, low kicks, and body shots—to overwhelm Chikadze's defensive shell. The small cage is his ally; cut angles, trap against fence, and force exchanges where volume matters. His 81% finish rate thrives on early aggression—bank the first two rounds with high output and finish equity.
Target Chikadze's body to drain his cardio and discourage kicks. Hooks to the liver and uppercuts in pocket reduce his willingness to throw—fighters become hesitant when absorbing body damage. By mixing head-body attacks, Vallejos can keep Chikadze guessing and unable to settle into rhythm. If the fight reaches round 3, the accumulated damage tilts the pace in Vallejos' favor.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🎯Technical Matchup
The primary battleground centers on range control versus volume pressure. Chikadze's 6-inch reach advantage and superior defensive metrics (60% StrDef, 3.48 SApM) allow him to dictate engagement distance with long-range strikes. His karate-based footwork and body attack game can neutralize Vallejos' pressure by creating angles and taxing his cardio. However, Vallejos' 6.48 SLpM output represents a 70% striking volume advantage that becomes dangerous in the 25ft cage—he can cut angles, trap Chikadze on the fence, and overwhelm with combinations. The small cage dynamics favor the aggressor; Vallejos can force exchanges where one clean shot creates finish opportunities.
⏱️Fight Timeline
Early rounds favor Vallejos—his explosive speed, power, and high output create immediate danger. Chikadze must survive the initial blitz and establish his jab-teep game to slow momentum. Rounds 2-3 shift toward Chikadze as experience and defensive discipline manifest—his 13:24 average duration vs Vallejos' 6:51 suggests superior conditioning over three rounds. Body kicks and lateral movement can drain Vallejos' gas tank, reducing his volume and creating openings for clean counters. The veteran's ability to pace himself and bank late rounds gives him multiple win paths beyond early finish equity.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Chikadze by Decision (34% probability) achieved through range control, defensive efficiency, and superior cardio over three rounds. His technical discipline and experience edge allow him to neutralize Vallejos' pressure with footwork and body attacks. Chikadze's KO/TKO path (26%) emerges if body kicks accumulate damage and create finishing opportunities in rounds 2-3. Vallejos' upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (19%) via aggressive blitz—his power and volume can overwhelm if he catches Chikadze early before defensive adjustments take hold. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Vallejos can impose his will before Chikadze's experience and range control become decisive.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 34% | Fair: +194
GOOD VALUE
Model: 19% | Fair: +426
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Fair: -122
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Underestimates experiencia de Chikadze – Su defensa (60% StrDef) es superior en jaula pequeña.
- • Sobrevaloría el poder temprano de Vallejos – Su 6:51 promedio sugiere vulnerabilidades de cardio en R3.
- • Sesgo de jaula pequeña – Favorece agresores temprano, pero Chikadze puede neutralizar con técnica.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Giga Chikadze
Primary path via range control and cardio
Body kicks and cumulative damage in late rounds
Low submission profile for strikers
💥Outcome Distribution - Kevin Vallejos
Best lane via early aggressive pressure
Requires volume output over full distance
Very unlikely given striker profiles
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Kevin Vallejos
- • First 5–7 minutes: Maximum aggression window.
- • Volume combinations: Cut angles and trap fence.
- • Avoid round 3: Cardio advantage shifts to Chikadze late.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Giga Chikadze
- • Range maintenance: Teeps and body kicks bank early rounds.
- • Pace control: Measure exchanges; avoid brawls.
- • Round 3 dominance: Apply pressure when Vallejos fades.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong technical differential, but small cage volatility creates uncertainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • 6-inch reach advantage (74" vs 68")
- • Superior defensive metrics (60% StrDef)
- • Experience edge (11 UFC fights vs 2)
- • Cardio advantage (13:24 vs 6:51 avg)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Vallejos volume (6.48 SLpM +70%)
- • Small cage amplifies pressure
- • Chikadze recent losses to pressure fighters
- • High variance in early finishes
🏁Executive Summary
Giga Chikadze's technical advantages and experience should prevail in a three-round featherweight bout against Kevin Vallejos at the UFC Apex. Chikadze's 74-inch reach, 60% striking defense, and 13:24 average duration provide a consistent framework for dictating range and pacing. Vallejos' 6.48 SLpM striking advantage and 81% finish rate create legitimate early finish equity—especially in the 25ft cage where pressure becomes suffocating. The small cage dynamics favor the aggressor, but Chikadze's karate-based footwork and body kick game can neutralize this through measured exchanges and energy economy. The fight's outcome hinges on Vallejos' ability to capitalize on early momentum before Chikadze's experience and conditioning kick in during rounds 2-3.
Prediction: Chikadze by Decision (34% probability) through range control and cardio advantage; Vallejos' upset lane is early KO/TKO (19%) via aggressive volume in the first 5–7 minutes. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Vallejos can impose his will before Chikadze's technical and conditioning advantages become decisive factors.