Cesar Almeida vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Saturday, December 13, 2025 • UFC Apex (25ft, Small Cage)
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Cesar Almeida
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Cezary Oleksiejczuk
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cesar Almeida
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Abdul Razak Alhassan | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 4:16) |
| 2024-10-05 | Ihor Potieria | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-01 | Roman Kopylov | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-06 | Dylan Budka | W | TKO - Elbows and Punches (R2, 2:13) |
| 2023-08-08 | Lucas Fernando | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cezary Oleksiejczuk
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-02 | Theo Haig | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 0:36) |
| 2025-02-15 | Tom Breese | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:30) |
| 2024-10-26 | Piotr Strus | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:33) |
| 2024-03-16 | Baurzhan Kuanyshbayev | W | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-16 | Alibeg Rasulov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62.0 vs 85.0) and Grappling Composite (38.0 vs 45.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📈 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Cesar Almeida Key Advantages
Almeida's proven UFC power at middleweight is validated by his R1 KO of Abdul Razak Alhassan and R2 TKO of Dylan Budka. His 4.16 SLpM may seem modest, but his 59% accuracy reflects selective, high-damage shot selection. The Brazilian's counter-striking approach—setting feet and punishing entries—is perfectly suited to exploit southpaw pressure fighters who commit to straight lines. His mean elbows and knees in clinch (27% of sig strikes come in close range) provide additional finishing tools if Oleksiejczuk presses forward recklessly.
Almeida's 4 UFC fights against proven opposition (Kopylov, Potieria, Alhassan) provide battle-tested octagon experience that Oleksiejczuk lacks. The Brazilian has absorbed 41 sig strikes from Kopylov and weathered three-round wars, validating his durability. His 11:18 average fight duration shows he can maintain pace and execute gameplans under UFC pressure and lights. Oleksiejczuk's regional dominance is impressive, but the step-up in speed, power, and defensive sophistication at UFC middleweight is significant.
The UFC Apex's 25-foot cage compresses space and accelerates pocket exchanges—favoring Almeida's counter-striking over Oleksiejczuk's length-based game. With less room to circle and reset, Oleksiejczuk's 1.5-inch reach advantage becomes less decisive. Almeida's clinch work (elbows, knees, tie-ups) thrives when the fence is always nearby. His 60% TDDef is solid enough to stuff opportunistic shots, keeping the fight in his preferred striking range where timing beats reach.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Oleksiejczuk lands his explosive straight left and left kick early—as he did in his 0:36 DWCS KO—Almeida's 48% striking defense could be breached before he establishes rhythm. The Brazilian's patient style requires time to read timing; a fast start could overwhelm his defensive shell. Oleksiejczuk's youth and aggression create dangerous momentum shifts in the opening minutes.
If Oleksiejczuk maintains high output (his inflated 28.33 SLpM suggests explosive potential) and lands combinations before Almeida can counter, the Brazilian's moderate defense (48%) struggles to stem the tide. Almeida's counter-first style relies on opponents committing; if Oleksiejczuk feints and exits cleanly, he banks rounds without eating counters.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Almeida should absorb early pressure, set feet mid-range, and invite southpaw entries. His right-hand counter and intercepting elbows punish straight-line attacks. By staying composed and not chasing, he forces Oleksiejczuk to commit first—where power and timing favor the Brazilian. Low kicks to chop Oleksiejczuk's lead leg slow the pressure and create openings.
When Oleksiejczuk rushes in or gets squared on fence, Almeida should tie up and work short elbows/knees. His 27% clinch strike rate is a weapon in the small cage—he can stifle momentum and bank damage when range closes. This approach neutralizes Oleksiejczuk's reach and turns aggressive entries into defensive liabilities.
🚀 Cezary Oleksiejczuk Key Advantages
At 25 vs. Almeida's 36, Oleksiejczuk brings fresher legs, faster recovery, and potentially superior athleticism. His 0:36 DWCS KO and multiple R1 finishes demonstrate explosive finishing ability—17/17 significant strikes landed without absorbing any validates his power at full speed. Youth advantages compound over three hard rounds, where Almeida's age could show in reduced reaction time and recovery between exchanges.
Standing 6'3" vs. Almeida's 6'1" with a 75.5" reach advantage, Oleksiejczuk can control distance and land before Almeida enters counter range. His southpaw stance creates angles that exploit orthodox defenses. If he maintains discipline and uses his length, he dictates the engagement distance and forces Almeida to work harder to close gaps—draining energy and limiting counter opportunities.
Oleksiejczuk enters on a 4-win streak with recent dominant finishes, including back-to-back R1 KOs. This momentum builds confidence and sharpens timing. His 69% finish rate and 9:45 average fight duration suggest he pressures hard early and often ends things before championship cardio becomes a factor. He'll believe he can overwhelm Almeida before the Brazilian's experience and craft take over.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Walking onto Almeida's counter right or elbows while pressing forward—the Brazilian's one-shot power is UFC-proven (Alhassan KO). Oleksiejczuk's perfect defensive stats are a small-sample artifact; his true durability and defensive layering at UFC speed are unknown. A clean counter early could flip the script instantly in a small cage.
If Oleksiejczuk fails to finish early and the fight extends to R3, his 9:45 average duration suggests he hasn't been tested in extended battles. Almeida's 11:18 average and UFC experience give him the edge in championship minutes. The pressure of UFC debut combined with a durable opponent could expose cardio limits in later rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Oleksiejczuk should press early with southpaw combinations—straight left, left kick, fast exits—to bank rounds before Almeida finds timing. His youth and explosive starts (4 DWCS/regional R1 finishes) suggest front-loading damage is his optimal path. By establishing volume early, he forces Almeida to react rather than dictate pace.
Use length to land from outside Almeida's counter range, then pivot off to deny pocket exchanges. Feint entries to draw counters, then land as Almeida commits. By staying mobile and avoiding prolonged clinch battles, Oleksiejczuk neutralizes the Brazilian's close-range weapons and keeps the fight in his preferred striking lanes.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Small Cage Dynamics
The UFC Apex's 25-foot cage fundamentally alters this matchup's dynamics compared to a standard 30-foot octagon. The compressed space reduces Oleksiejczuk's ability to leverage his 2-inch height and 1.5-inch reach advantages, as there's less room to circle and maintain optimal striking distance. For Almeida, the small cage becomes an ally—his counter-striking approach thrives when opponents can't easily reset, and his clinch work (27% of significant strikes) becomes more accessible when the fence is always nearby. The space compression accelerates pocket exchanges where Almeida's timing and power have proven effective at UFC level, while limiting Oleksiejczuk's ability to use movement and length to control range throughout three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a clear striking differential that heavily favors Oleksiejczuk's inflated metrics (28.33 SLpM, 100% acc/def from DWCS sample) against Almeida's modest but battle-tested numbers (4.16 SLpM, 59% acc, 48% def from UFC competition). However, sample size and competition level create significant caveats—Oleksiejczuk's perfect stats derive from a 0:36 regional KO, while Almeida's come from absorbing Kopylov's strikes and finishing Alhassan. The Brazilian's 71% finish rate and proven one-shot power (R1 KO, R2 TKO wins) at UFC middleweight validate his ability to change fights instantly, while Oleksiejczuk's finishing prowess remains untested against UFC-caliber durability and defensive sophistication. Almeida's 11:18 average duration demonstrates his ability to maintain effectiveness over extended periods, a critical factor if Oleksiejczuk's early blitz doesn't produce the finish his regional record suggests.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: early pressure vs. patient counter-setup, southpaw pressure vs. orthodox counters, and late-round experience vs. youth energy. Oleksiejczuk's optimal window is the first 7 minutes—if he can land his explosive southpaw combinations before Almeida establishes rhythm, his youth and momentum create dangerous finishing opportunities. Almeida's counter-striking requires reading patterns and timing commitments; too much early aggression could overwhelm his moderate 48% defense, but patient pressure without finishing allows the Brazilian to find openings for his power shots. As the fight progresses into R2 and R3, Almeida's UFC experience and 11:18 average duration give him an edge—he knows how to pace himself and execute under octagon pressure, while Oleksiejczuk's 9:45 average suggests untested cardio at this level. The small cage magnifies these dynamics by forcing more exchanges and reducing the escape routes that would favor Oleksiejczuk's length.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Cesar Almeida by KO/TKO (38% probability), achieved through patient counter-striking that exploits Oleksiejczuk's aggressive entries with well-timed power shots—mirroring his Alhassan finish. Almeida's decision path (22%) becomes viable if he weathers early pressure and banks later rounds through superior experience and cage craft. Oleksiejczuk's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (20%) via explosive southpaw combinations in the first round before Almeida finds his timing, capitalizing on his youth, momentum, and regional finishing dominance. The Polish fighter's decision path (10%) requires maintaining disciplined range management and volume throughout three rounds without getting caught by counters—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely as Almeida's power and experience take hold in the small cage environment. Oleksiejczuk's submission threat (8%) provides a wild card, though neither fighter has shown consistent grappling tendencies.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Model Probabilities
💡Betting Recommendation
Our model favors Cesar Almeida at 62% win probability (-163 fair odds), suggesting value depends on market pricing. The step-up factor for Oleksiejczuk—making his UFC debut against a proven UFC finisher—cannot be overstated. While his regional dominance is impressive, the jump in speed, power, and defensive sophistication at UFC middleweight significantly impacts his inflated statistical profile. Almeida's proven octagon power (Alhassan KO) and experience weathering adversity (Kopylov war) provide edges that aren't captured in raw stats. The small cage environment amplifies Almeida's counter-striking and clinch weapons while limiting Oleksiejczuk's ability to utilize his length advantage. Best bet: Almeida by KO/TKO offers solid value given his finishing prowess and Oleksiejczuk's untested UFC durability.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Cesar Almeida
Primary path via patient counter-striking
Weathering early pressure to outwork late
Low grappling threat profile
💥Outcome Distribution - Cezary Oleksiejczuk
Best lane via explosive southpaw combos
Requires sustained range management
Opportunistic submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Cezary Oleksiejczuk
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest explosive KO equity.
- • Southpaw pressure: Volume combinations to overwhelm defense.
- • Fast exits: Feint and pivot; avoid clinch exchanges.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Cesar Almeida
- • Clinch control: Short elbows/knees stifle pressure.
- • Counter timing: Exploit aggressive entries with power.
- • Late rounds: Experience + small cage advantage decisive.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong counter-striking edge + UFC experience
✅Supporting Factors
- • Proven UFC power (Alhassan/Budka finishes)
- • Counter-striking suited to small cage
- • 11:18 avg duration shows endurance
- • Battle-tested vs. UFC-level opposition
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Oleksiejczuk's untested UFC durability
- • Early southpaw blitz could overwhelm
- • Small sample size inflates Oleksiejczuk stats
- • Age factor could emerge in R3
🏁Executive Summary
Cesar Almeida's proven counter-striking power and UFC-caliber experience should carry him through this 3-round middleweight bout at the UFC Apex's compressed 25-foot cage, where his clinch work and timing-based approach have decisive advantages. Cezary Oleksiejczuk brings explosive youth and regional dominance, but the step-up factor—making his UFC debut against a battle-tested finisher—cannot be understated. The small cage environment fundamentally favors Almeida's counter-striking and clinch weapons while limiting Oleksiejczuk's ability to leverage his length advantage. Almeida's 11:18 average fight duration with proven finishing ability at UFC middleweight demonstrates his capacity to maintain effectiveness and execute under pressure, while Oleksiejczuk's 9:45 average suggests untested endurance at this level. Almeida's superior damage economy (2.32 SApM vs. inflated metrics) combined with his proven one-shot power creates a dangerous scoring framework that judges reward, particularly when a prospect's inflated stats meet UFC-caliber defensive sophistication.
Prediction: Cesar Almeida by KO/TKO most likely (38% probability) through patient counter-striking exploiting Oleksiejczuk's aggressive entries; Almeida's decision path (22%) becomes viable if he weathers early pressure and outworks late. Oleksiejczuk's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (20%) via explosive southpaw combinations in R1 before Almeida finds his timing. The fight hinges on whether Almeida can weather Oleksiejczuk's initial storm and whether the Polish prospect's perfect defensive stats translate to true UFC-level durability.