Tereza Bleda vs Jamey-Lyn Horth
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Saturday, December 13, 2025 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Tereza Bleda
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Tereza Bleda
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-17 | Gabriella Fernandes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-19 | Natalia Silva | L | TKO - Spinning Back Kick and Punches (R3, 1:27) |
| 2022-09-06 | Nayara Maia | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-12-30 | Mabelly Lima | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:49) |
| 2021-07-24 | Edna Oliveira Ajala | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 4:25) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jamey-Lyn Horth
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Vanessa Demopoulos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-14 | Miranda Maverick | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-02 | Ivana Petrovic | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-02 | Veronica Hardy | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-29 | Hailey Cowan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Balances striking effectiveness with grappling efficiency to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking pace, takedown rate, and finish rate. Reflects ability to sustain output across three rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores, providing a holistic view of fighter capability.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Tereza Bleda Key Advantages
Small-cage dynamics (25ft) favor Bleda's entries and fence wrestling. Chain attempts and mat returns convert shots into extended top control where her Sub/15 threat (0.72) complements measured ground-and-pound. The Czech prospect excels at walking opponents onto the fence, resetting level changes until she collects hips, then shelving the far leg to settle into half guard. Once there she keeps shoulders pinned, alternating shoulder pressure and short hammerfists to force defensive reactions that open the arm-triangle and head-and-arm lanes. Her length also lets her float with opponents who try to granby or sit out, keeping weight centered and punishing attempts to create scrambles.
Elite takedown defense (83%) and ride skills let her bank minutes without overextending for submissions. Half-guard rides and wrist control blunt stand-ups and reduce scrambles. Even when she loses the initial grip, Bleda immediately re-grips ankles, stuffs hips, and drags fighters back into the mat-return cycle—rarely conceding clean reversals. On top she is content to float between half guard, three-quarter mount, and side control, forcing opponents to choose between eating incremental damage or exposing limbs for submissions. That composure keeps judges scoring in her favor even when finishes do not materialize.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If stuck at mid-range vs a compact striker with better StrDef (63%), Bleda's entries become predictable and she risks losing minutes. Horth's ability to angle off the center line and take subtle backwards steps forces Bleda into long shots that arrive without the hand fighting she needs to cover distance. The more time this bout spends in open space, the more Bleda is forced into plan-B elbows or naked entries that invite counters, tax her gas tank, and sap confidence in her wrestling sequences.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Persistently pressure, set level changes behind the jab/overhand, collect singles to body-locks, mat-return and ride. Hunt arm-triangle only after damage. Bleda must stay disciplined about chaining finishes—transitioning from head-outsides to doubles, stepping across for outside trips, and immediately climbing the waist when Horth posts a hand. The moment she settles for 50/50 clinches instead of riding through the position, Horth can circle out and reset to center where her jab begins to pile up points.
🚀 Jamey-Lyn Horth Key Advantages
Higher output and defense (3.52 SLpM, 55% Acc, 63% Def) win range minutes. Compact frame suits explosive entries and intercepts vs naked shots. Horth's jab-cross stays short and straight, letting her beat taller opponents to the line while keeping her base centered for immediate sprawls. She mixes straight punching with downward elbows and short hooks as opponents change levels, punishing wrestlers who shoot without feints and forcing them to think twice about naked entries.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Being stapled to the fence with wrist rides and mat returns concedes rounds and saps pace. When Bleda achieves top position through her TD15 edge (1.81 vs. 1.2), Horth's back becomes a liability against ground-and-pound pressure. The veteran's cardio score (82) helps her survive extended top control, but each minute spent on bottom costs her the volume striking that fuels her 3.52 SLpM output and creates scorecard separation. Half-guard rides and wrist control force Horth into reactive defense, limiting her ability to create space and reset to striking range.
Horth's timing depends on reading Bleda's level changes and countering with sprawls or inside low kicks. However, if her initial reads are off and she commits to failed sprawls against chain takedowns, she risks getting caught in compromised positions. Missing the timing window forces her into desperate pummeling or fence-walking that drains her 82 cardio score faster than anticipated. Each failed counter attempt also telegraphs her defensive rhythm, making subsequent entries easier for Bleda to time with her superior TDAcc (43% vs. Bleda's 28%, but still a window for exploitation).
Horth's striking efficiency (3.52 SLpM) thrives on volume accumulation, but in a compressed 25-foot cage, over-committing to combinations risks getting caught in exchanges where Bleda can use her 5'9" frame to tie up. The veteran's tendency to build momentum through sustained pressure works against her when Bleda times her shots during Horth's offensive sequences. Getting sucked into firefights near the fence where Bleda has positioning advantage turns Horth's 63% StrDef into a liability when she's forced to trade while compromised.
Horth's perimeter control relies on her jab and lateral movement to maintain range, but Bleda's reach advantage (71" vs. 66") creates awkward pockets where Horth's counters arrive short. Poor distance management forces Horth into retreat patterns that compress her into the cage walls, where Bleda's wrestling becomes most dangerous. The veteran striker must perfectly balance her backward movement with occasional forward pressure to avoid getting backed into positions where her compact frame (5'7") becomes a disadvantage against Bleda's length.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Matador first lines with jabs/cross-counters, sprawl near the fence, inside low kicks to slow entries, and win minutes by limiting risk. Horth benefits from keeping her back off the warning track and using quick resets after every exchange—two or three shots, an angle change, and a calf kick before Bleda can square up. Mixing in teeps to the body helps sap the wrestler's gas tank and slows the drive when Bleda crouches for singles.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Venue Dynamics
The Apex small 25-foot cage compresses space and accelerates clinch and takedown engagements. Bleda's 5'9" frame and 71" reach help her set level changes from distance, while Horth's compact build and 42" leg reach give her quick hip turns to exit fence exchanges. Because there is less floor to circle, each exchange reaches the fence faster than in a traditional 30-foot octagon, so winning the initial pummel and head-position battle often matters more than raw strike totals. Fighters who can establish wrist control first typically dictate whether the sequence ends in a mat return or a clean exit.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Horth carries the striking efficiency edge (3.52 SLpM, 55% accuracy, 63% defense) against Bleda's 3.02 SLpM and 47% defense, meaning she wins the range optics when upright. Bleda counters with superior grappling data—1.81 TD/15 and 0.72 Sub/15—but her 28% takedown accuracy means she must chain attempts to secure control. The technical tug-of-war revolves around whether Bleda can turn failed shots into immediate re-drives or whether Horth can punish the first layer and force desperate singles that stall in the open. When Bleda glues hips to the wall, her top pressure flips the scoring margins; when Horth keeps exchanges at distance, her jab, cross, and calf kick accumulate visible damage without exposing her chin.
🧩Key Battle Areas
First-contact hand fighting at the fence, mat-return efficiency versus overhook frames, and inside low-kick versus level-change exchanges will define rounds. Horth needs to land clean intercepts before being stapled; Bleda must convert singles into rides and limit resets. Watch for Horth's ability to pummel for double underhooks and turn off the fence—if she consistently wins that opening exchange, Bleda will be forced to restart from the outside. Conversely, if Bleda can collect ankles and cycle through knee taps, inside trips, and tree-top finishes, she forces Horth to carry weight and drains the striker's power late.
🏁Model Outlook
Simulations tilt toward Horth by decision (42%) thanks to the striking efficiency gap and superior cardio pacing. Bleda's clearest path is a control-heavy decision (31%) or opportunistic submission (10%) if she improves conversion quality on takedowns and maintains top pressure. The model essentially prices this as a volume striker versus developmental wrestler matchup—small adjustments in Bleda's finishing mechanics or Horth's ability to stay off the fence could swing the probability by roughly five percentage points either way. Until Bleda shows she can turn attempts into clean rides against someone with Horth's balance, the safer side remains the veteran striker eking out rounds on optics.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 42% | Fair: +172
GOOD VALUE
Model: 10% | Fair: +900
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 70% | Fair: -233
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Striking efficiency gap – Horth banks range minutes with better Acc/Def.
- • Small-cage bias – Helps entries but doesn’t fix finish mechanics.
- • Wrestling conversion rate – Bleda must chain and re-mat to bank control.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Tereza Bleda
Fence rides, mat returns, safe control
GNP accumulation if positions stick
Head-and-arm/arm-triangle lanes after damage
💥Outcome Distribution - Jamey-Lyn Horth
Intercepts/counters vs level changes
Range control, jab/counter scoring
Low submission profile historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Striking efficiency gap favors Horth; small cage keeps Bleda live.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Horth superior StrAcc/StrDef triad at range
- • Cardio pacing over 15 favors Horth
- • Bleda top control effective in small cage
⚠️Risk Factors
- • If Bleda improves finish mechanics, control minutes stack fast
- • Horth reactive shots late if forced into fence cycles
- • Variance in TD conversions (28% historically) is fight-swinging