Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Saturday, December 13, 2025 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Amanda Lemos
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Tatiana Suarez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-08 | Iasmin Lucindo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-20 | Virna Jandiroba | L | Submission - Armbar (R2, 4:48) |
| 2024-02-17 | Mackenzie Dern | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Zhang Weili | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Gillian Robertson
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Marina Rodriguez | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:07) |
| 2024-11-09 | Luana Pinheiro | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-20 | Polyana Viana | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 3:12) |
| 2023-06-24 | Tabatha Ricci | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
Legend & Notes
- • SLpM, TD15, Sub/15 are normalized to 0–100 for plotting.
- • Percent metrics (StrAcc, StrDef, TDAcc, TDDef) are raw %.
- • Tooltip shows true raw values with units.
- • Colors: Blue = Amanda Lemos, Red = Gillian Robertson.
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Amanda Lemos Key Advantages
Superior accuracy and early KO threat punish level changes and rushed entries in small-cage exchanges.
Round 1 is her best finishing window; counters off jab feints and uppercuts intercept level changes. Short left hook off the cross and rear uppercut punish entries as Robertson bites on feints. Early body kicks sap shot speed for later attempts.
Mid-cage level changes are most vulnerable—uppercut and shovel hook counters create stun events that halt chains before fence contact, forcing clean resets.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
📋 Likely Gameplan
🚀 Gillian Robertson Key Advantages
Small cage boosts entries to top control and submission sequences. Clinch-to-trip chains and mat returns keep the fight in her wheelhouse without needing clean doubles.
Better damage avoidance helps her reach clinch/shot positions with lower risk, slipping to level changes off predictable jabs to reduce clean connections.
Mat return → ride → hooks → short strikes → RNC. Her best submission clusters emerge after wearing sequences, not first try subs.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
📋 Likely Gameplan
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics (25ft – Small Cage)
The smaller 25-ft octagon at UFC Apex increases clinch entries and scramble frequency—conditions that improve Gillian Robertson's access to takedowns and top control. Funnelled cornering shortens travel time to the fence, so first-contact clinches materialize earlier in sequences.
However, Amanda Lemos's front-loaded power and accuracy translate into strong round-winning optics early, before prolonged fence cycles develop. Single clean counters on entries can outweigh brief clinch exchanges in judges’ eyes when control is not secured.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Striking efficiency favors Amanda Lemos (54% accuracy, KO equity), whereas Gillian Robertson owns the grappling volume (2.74 TD/15, 0.94 Sub/15). Lemos's 59% TDD and consistent frames should limit extended rides in a majority of scenarios, while Robertson's defensive striking (57% StrDef) helps her navigate to clinch attempts with reduced damage when successful.
The hinge is the conversion rate of first-layer shots into fence pins. If Amanda Lemos repeatedly resets center and punishes triggers, striking optics compound. If Gillian Robertson chains to the fence and re-mats after sprawls, control time and sub attempts ramp quickly.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Fence cycles and mat returns vs center-reset management. Lemos must pivot off the fence, punish entries, and keep resets in the center. Robertson's best sequences start from single-to-double chains and rides; one clean takedown can flip a round with 90–120 seconds of control.
Secondary hinges: early body damage that slows shots, inside hand-fighting on the fence to avoid gift-wrapping back takes, and the discipline to accept underhooks first rather than overhooks that stall breaks.
🏁Final Prediction
Most likely outcomes: Amanda Lemos by KO/TKO (44%) via counters and entry punishments or by Decision (16%) if she banks clear striking minutes; Gillian Robertson by Submission (24%) is the clearest grappling path, often materializing in Round 2 scrambles.
Overall lean: Amanda Lemos 62% vs Gillian Robertson 38%. If Robertson exits R1 without eating clean damage, her control equity rises; conversely, early counters can bank decisive optics that force her into riskier entries.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Method-of-Victory (Fair)
Primary Props
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Amanda Lemos
💥Outcome Distribution - Gillian Robertson
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and risk considerations
Confidence Level
Strong confidence given striking efficiency vs grappling path clarity; small-cage volatility noted.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Lemos +15.6% accuracy differential
- • Early KO equity in small cage
- • Robertson high Sub/15, but lower TDAcc and TDDef
- • Clear two-path fight (KO vs Sub)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Fence cycles → mat returns against Lemos
- • R2 scramble spikes for Robertson
- • Small-cage clinch frequency increases variance
- • Lemos’ SApM exposure if stuck at fence