Austin Vanderford vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Saturday, February 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Austin Vanderford
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Austin Vanderford
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Ramiz Brahimaj | L | Submission - Guillotine (R2, 2:24) |
| 2025-02-22 | Nikolay Veretennikov | W | TKO - Ground Pound (R2, 4:13) |
| 2024-10-18 | Victor Romero | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 1:05) |
| 2022-08-12 | Aaron Jeffery | L | TKO - Strikes (R1, 1:25) |
| 2022-02-25 | Gegard Mousasi | L | TKO - Ground Pound (R1, 1:25) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-02 | Jack Congdon | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 1:08) |
| 2025-04-11 | Kegan Gennrich | W | Submission - Triangle Choke (R1, 4:00) |
| 2024-05-17 | Victor Kuiks | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-08 | Adam Wamsley | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 3:46) |
| 2023-05-19 | JaCobi Jones | L | TKO - Ref Stoppage (R2, 2:18) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (58.0 vs 72.0) and Grappling Composite (65.0 vs 35.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Austin Vanderford Key Advantages
Vanderford's 1.77 takedowns per 15min vs Lebosnoyani's 0.00 represents a significant grappling advantage that can shift fight control. Vanderford's clinch-to-takedown sequences— fence pressure, body locks, and mat returns—create minute-winning cycles that accumulate control time. His 25% takedown accuracy against Lebosnoyani's untested takedown defense suggests first-layer resistance, but Vanderford's persistence and fence pressure typically break through. The American's ability to chain multiple attempts and maintain pressure while Lebosnoyani defends creates fatigue differentials that compound over three rounds.
The 2.63 strikes absorbed per minute differential (2.66 vs 5.29) creates a damage economy that heavily favors Vanderford in scoring optics. While Lebosnoyani's 9.71 SLpM output can rack volume, Vanderford's 51% striking defense and low absorption rate mean fewer clean shots land. This defensive efficiency compounds over three rounds—Vanderford maintains his pace without accumulating damage, while Lebosnoyani's high-volume approach leaves him vulnerable to counters and takedowns. The American's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially in later rounds where damage accumulation becomes visually apparent.
Vanderford's 8:28 average fight duration with balanced round distribution demonstrates proven durability and strategic pacing. His control-heavy approach creates sustainable pressure that escalates rather than diminishes as fights progress. The American's ability to maintain 4.08 SLpM while executing takedown chains shows efficient energy management—he doesn't gas from striking exchanges because he controls the pace through grappling. This experience advantage becomes decisive in later rounds where Lebosnoyani's high-volume striking (9.71 SLpM) becomes increasingly difficult to sustain, especially when defending takedowns and fighting off his back.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Lebosnoyani's 9.71 SLpM output with 78% accuracy represents his most dangerous weapon against Vanderford's entries. The switch-stance striker's ability to maintain distance while threatening high-volume combinations can overwhelm Vanderford's defensive shell. Historical data shows Lebosnoyani's success against pressure fighters when he can maintain his preferred distance—his front-loaded finishes (6 R1 wins) create fight-ending opportunities. Vanderford's predictable entry patterns could be exploited if Lebosnoyani maintains composure and doesn't panic under pressure.
If Vanderford fails to establish consistent pressure and the fight remains at extended range, Lebosnoyani's 9.71 SLpM volume advantage becomes significant. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Lebosnoyani to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance. His 78% accuracy combined with high output can overwhelm Vanderford's defensive shell, especially if the American becomes hesitant to shoot after early volume surges. Lebosnoyani's ability to rack up significant strike differentials in rounds where he maintains distance could sway judges, particularly in early rounds before Vanderford's pressure begins to take effect.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Vanderford should utilize jabs and low kicks to close distance, forcing Lebosnoyani into clinch exchanges where takedown opportunities emerge. His 63% striking accuracy suggests he can land these setup strikes while maintaining defensive positioning. The American's ability to mix striking entries with takedown attempts keeps Lebosnoyani guessing and prevents him from settling into rhythm. By varying his approach—sometimes feinting shots, sometimes committing—Vanderford can exploit Lebosnoyani's tendency to overreact to takedown threats, creating opportunities for clean entries and subsequent control sequences.
Once Vanderford secures takedowns, his priority should be establishing dominant positions and accumulating control time. His wrestling background emphasizes mat returns, wrist control, and ground-and-pound rather than submission attempts. This approach maximizes scoring while minimizing risk—Vanderford can bank minutes through rides and positional control without exposing himself to submission attempts or sweeps. The American's 100% takedown defense suggests he can maintain top position once established, making this strategy both effective and sustainable over three rounds.
🚀 Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani Key Advantages
Lebosnoyani's 9.71 SLpM output with 78% accuracy represents one of the highest striking rates in the welterweight division, creating significant volume advantages when fights remain upright. His ability to maintain this pace while switching stances and varying attack angles makes him difficult to counter effectively. The switch-stance striker's volume becomes particularly dangerous in early rounds when he's fresh and can sustain high output without fatigue. His 78% accuracy means he's landing clean shots consistently, and his ability to string together combinations can overwhelm opponents who struggle to match his pace or establish their own rhythm.
Lebosnoyani's 57% submission rate (4 of 7 wins) combined with Vanderford's recent guillotine loss creates a clear submission threat that perfectly aligns with Vanderford's vulnerability. The switch-stance striker's ability to capitalize on exposed necks and arms in scrambles makes him particularly dangerous when Vanderford commits to takedown attempts. His triangle choke and guillotine submissions represent his most likely path to victory (28% probability), as Vanderford's style requires entering grappling exchanges where these submissions become available. This matchup dynamic—grappler needing to engage vs submission finisher—creates a high-risk scenario for Vanderford in every serious takedown attempt or scramble.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Vanderford's clinch-to-takedown sequences create a nightmare scenario for Lebosnoyani—once the American secures takedowns, his ability to chain shots, establish rides, and execute mat returns prevents Lebosnoyani from regaining his feet or establishing striking rhythm. Lebosnoyani's untested takedown defense suggests he can stuff initial attempts, but Vanderford's persistence and fence pressure typically break through. Once on the ground, Lebosnoyani's striking output drops to near zero while Vanderford accumulates control time and scoring opportunities. This scenario becomes increasingly likely as the fight progresses and Lebosnoyani's cardio begins to fade.
Lebosnoyani's 4:15 average fight duration suggests he struggles to maintain his high-volume striking approach over extended periods. His 9.71 SLpM output becomes increasingly difficult to sustain as fights progress, especially when combined with takedown defense and grappling exchanges. The switch-stance striker's cardio limitations become particularly apparent in later rounds where Vanderford's wrestling pressure escalates. Lebosnoyani's tendency to fade in later rounds, combined with his high absorption rate (5.29 SApM), creates a dangerous combination where he becomes increasingly vulnerable to both striking counters and takedowns as his energy reserves deplete.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Lebosnoyani's optimal strategy involves maintaining perimeter control while unleashing high-volume combinations. His switch stance allows him to vary attack angles and keep Vanderford guessing. When Vanderford does commit to shots, Lebosnoyani should threaten knees and uppercuts to deter entries and create counter opportunities. The key is maintaining distance while staying active enough to score points and prevent Vanderford from settling into rhythm or establishing consistent pressure. His 78% accuracy ensures these strikes land with consistency.
Lebosnoyani's best chance for victory lies in front-loading damage during the first round when he's fresh and Vanderford hasn't yet established his wrestling rhythm. The switch-stance striker should look to capitalize on his early energy advantage by maintaining high output and landing clean shots before Vanderford's pressure begins to take effect. His 9.71 SLpM output becomes most dangerous when he can sustain it without grappling exchanges or takedown defense draining his energy. By establishing early momentum and potentially scoring knockdowns or significant damage, Lebosnoyani can force Vanderford to fight from behind and potentially alter the American's gameplan.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Lebosnoyani's high-volume striking and movement, but potentially shifting toward Vanderford's pressure as the fight progresses. Both fighters share the same height (5'11"), but Vanderford's 74-inch reach vs Lebosnoyani's 72" gives him a slight advantage. Lebosnoyani's switch-stance striking and 9.71 SLpM output give him significant advantages in the early rounds when he can maintain distance and utilize his volume effectively. However, Vanderford's relentless pressure and clinch-to-takedown sequences can gradually compress the available space, forcing Lebosnoyani into increasingly uncomfortable positions. The American's ability to cut off angles and force exchanges at the fence transforms the cage from Lebosnoyani's ally into Vanderford's weapon, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: striking volume vs wrestling control and damage economy. Lebosnoyani's 9.71 SLpM vs Vanderford's 4.08 represents a 2.4x differential that fundamentally alters fight control and scoring dynamics when fights remain upright. While Lebosnoyani's striking moments (9.71 SLpM, 78% accuracy) create impressive volume, Vanderford's damage economy (2.66 SApM vs 5.29) means he absorbs significantly less damage while maintaining offensive output. The American's 51% striking defense combined with his wrestling threat can force Lebosnoyani into uncomfortable exchanges where his high-volume approach becomes less effective. These differentials create a scoring framework where Vanderford's control time and damage efficiency can outweigh Lebosnoyani's striking output in judges' eyes, but Lebosnoyani's volume advantage is significant if he maintains distance.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first-layer takedown defense vs clinch wrestling at the fence, high-volume striking vs level changes, and late-round pace durability. Lebosnoyani's untested takedown defense suggests he may struggle with initial attempts, but Vanderford's 25% takedown accuracy means he needs multiple attempts to succeed. The switch-stance striker's volume weapons (9.71 SLpM, 78% accuracy) represent his most dangerous tools against Vanderford's entries, but the American's ability to vary his approach and mix striking with takedowns makes these counters less predictable. As the fight progresses, Vanderford's superior cardio (8:28 avg duration vs 4:15) becomes increasingly decisive, especially when combined with his wrestling pressure that forces Lebosnoyani to expend energy defending takedowns and fighting off his back.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by Submission (28% probability), achieved through capitalizing on Vanderford's vulnerability in scrambles and transitions. Lebosnoyani's KO/TKO path (20%) becomes viable through high-volume striking and early finishing ability. Vanderford's primary path is Decision (20%) via consistent takedown pressure and control time accumulation, particularly if he can establish fence control early and survive the first round without exposing his neck. The American's KO/TKO path (16%) becomes viable if his ground-and-pound accumulates damage through rides and mat returns. Lebosnoyani's decision path (12%) requires maintaining distance and racking up significant strike differentials throughout three rounds—a scenario that becomes less likely if Vanderford establishes consistent pressure.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 28% | Fair: +257
GOOD VALUE
Model: 20% | Fair: +400
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Fair: -150
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights UFC debut uncertainty – Underprices Lebosnoyani's high-volume striking advantage.
- • Undervalues finishing ability – 85.7% finish rate with front-loaded R1 wins creates early KO equity.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps Lebosnoyani's volume early, but Vanderford's fence control can erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Austin Vanderford
Primary path via fence control and rides
Attritional GNP and accumulative pressure
Back-takes off rides create RNC chances
💥Outcome Distribution - Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Triangle chokes and guillotines capitalize on Vanderford's vulnerability in scrambles
High-volume striking and early finishes
Requires extended range control throughout three rounds
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
- • First 5 minutes: Highest volume and finishing equity with 6 R1 wins.
- • Perimeter control: Switch stance + high volume to overwhelm entries.
- • Short pockets: Burst combinations then reset; avoid extended clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Austin Vanderford
- • Clinch control: Fence pressure and rides bank control and sap pace.
- • Damage economy: Keep exchanges short; minimize risk.
- • Late minutes: Safer control edges decision likelihood.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via volume + accuracy differential in large cage
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive striking volume edge (9.71 vs 4.08 SLpM) with elite accuracy (78%)
- • Front-loaded finishing ability (85.7% finish rate, 6 R1 wins)
- • Switch-stance versatility creates unpredictable angles
- • UFC debut uncertainty may create value in market
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Untested takedown defense against UFC-level wrestling
- • High absorption rate (5.29 SApM) creates vulnerability
- • Vanderford's fence control can neutralize volume advantage
🏁Executive Summary
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani's finishing ability should prove decisive in this 30-foot octagon matchup, with his 85.7% finish rate and 6 R1 wins demonstrating exceptional early finishing ability. The statistical differentials favor Lebosnoyani: his 9.71 SLpM vs Vanderford's 4.08 creates a 2.4x striking volume advantage, while his 57% submission rate (4 of 7 wins) combined with Vanderford's recent guillotine loss creates a clear submission threat. Vanderford's path to victory requires surviving the first round without exposing his neck in scrambles, then establishing consistent fence control and top time. His damage economy (2.66 SApM vs 5.29) represents superior defensive efficiency, but the large cage makes it harder to secure clinch positions. Lebosnoyani's 4:15 average fight duration suggests he thrives in early rounds, while Vanderford's 8:28 duration and balanced round distribution demonstrate proven durability. The key factor is whether Vanderford can navigate the first serious takedown attempt or scramble without falling into Lebosnoyani's submission traps.
Prediction: Lebosnoyani by Submission most likely (28% probability) through capitalizing on Vanderford's vulnerability in scrambles and transitions; Vanderford's primary path is Decision (20%) via consistent takedown pressure and control time accumulation if he survives the first round. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Vanderford can secure safe top control without exposing his neck or arms in the first serious grappling exchange, as Lebosnoyani's submission threat (triangle chokes, guillotines) aligns perfectly with Vanderford's recent loss pattern.