Junior Tafa vs Billy Elekana
Men's Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2
Saturday, January 31, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage) • Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia
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Junior Tafa
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Billy Elekana
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Junior Tafa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | Tuco Tokkos | L | Submission - Arm Triangle (R2, 4:52) |
| 2024-10-12 | Sean Sharaf | W | TKO - Strikes (R2, 3:15) |
| 2024-08-17 | Valter Walker | L | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 4:28) |
| 2024-02-17 | Marcos Rogério de Lima | L | TKO - Strikes (R1, 2:33) |
| 2023-08-26 | Parker Porter | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 4:06) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Billy Elekana
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Kevin Christian | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 3:33) |
| 2025-07-26 | Ibo Aslan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-18 | Bogdan Guskov | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 3:33) |
| 2024-07-27 | Jureall Simmons | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 1:58) |
| 2023-08-04 | Chuck Campbell | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (75.0 vs 65.0) and Grappling Composite (35.0 vs 60.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Junior Tafa Key Advantages
Tafa's 6-0 knockout record speaks to devastating one-punch power that makes him dangerous throughout exchanges. His kickboxing background from Glory provides elite-level striking fundamentals - crisp 1-2 combinations, powerful left hooks, and debilitating low kicks. The 3.19 SLpM output combined with 51% accuracy shows he picks his shots carefully but lands with serious intent. Elekana's 46% striking defense and tendency to absorb 3.28 SApM creates a dangerous equation where a single clean shot could end the fight. Tafa's knockouts of Sean Sharaf and Parker Porter demonstrate his ability to capitalize on defensive lapses with explosive finishing sequences.
Four of Tafa's six wins came in Round 1, with one more in Round 2, demonstrating his ability to capitalize on early opportunities before opponents can settle into their gameplan. This front-loaded approach creates immense pressure on Elekana to survive the opening exchanges without taking significant damage. Tafa's average fight duration of 5:24 indicates he either finishes early or struggles when fights extend, making the first 7-8 minutes his prime window to impose his will. His aggressive starts and willingness to commit to power shots creates a high-risk, high-reward scenario that favors the fighter with knockout power.
Tafa's defensive striking statistics (51% StrDef, 2.49 SApM) are impressive for a heavyweight-sized fighter, showing his kickboxing background translates to solid fundamental defense. He absorbs significantly less damage than Elekana (3.28 SApM), suggesting better head movement, positioning, and counter-striking ability. This defensive competence allows him to stay in exchanges longer without accumulating the kind of damage that compounds over rounds, keeping his power intact throughout the early phases of the fight.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Tafa's recent losses tell a concerning story: three of his four defeats came by submission (Tokkos, Walker) or TKO after being taken down (De Lima). His 0.0 TD15 offensive wrestling and limited ground game create a massive vulnerability against fighters who can mix takedowns with striking. Elekana's 0.55 TD15 and 0.6 SubPer15 suggest he has the tools to exploit this weakness. If Elekana successfully drags Tafa into extended grappling exchanges, clinch battles, or ground sequences, the kickboxer's technical advantages evaporate and his cardio concerns accelerate.
Tafa's 5:24 average fight duration and zero wins beyond Round 2 paint a clear picture: he's built for explosive early finishes, not prolonged battles. If Elekana survives the initial onslaught and forces Tafa to maintain output into Round 2 and especially Round 3, the cardio differential becomes decisive. Elekana's 10:45 average duration and five Round 3 wins demonstrate endurance Tafa simply hasn't shown. The longer the fight extends, the more Tafa's power wanes while his defensive vulnerabilities increase.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Tafa needs to establish respect and dominance immediately, utilizing his reach-disadvantage offset by aggressive forward pressure. Lead with low kicks to compromise Elekana's stance and mobility, then attack with overhand rights and left hooks when the southpaw tries to counter. The goal is to force defensive reactions early, creating openings for his most dangerous power shots. Every exchange should be approached as a potential finish - this isn't a fight where Tafa can afford to "feel out" his opponent for multiple rounds.
Given his submission losses, Tafa must remain hyper-vigilant about takedown attempts and clinch entries. Keep his hips back, maintain distance management, and immediately disengage from any prolonged clinch battle. His 69% TD defense suggests he can stuff shots if he sees them coming, but he cannot afford to get dragged into scrambles or accept bottom position. Every second spent defending takedowns or fighting off his back burns precious energy and removes his primary weapon from the equation.
🚀 Billy Elekana Key Advantages
Elekana's well-rounded skillset provides multiple avenues to victory that Tafa simply cannot match. His 0.55 TD15 and 0.6 SubPer15 give him genuine grappling threats, while his 60% striking accuracy (highest in matchup) shows technical precision. This versatility forces Tafa to defend multiple threats simultaneously, burning mental energy and creating openings. Elekana can switch between striking at range, clinch grinding, takedown attempts, and submission attacks based on what's working - Tafa lacks this adaptability and must rely almost entirely on landing power shots.
Elekana's 10:45 average fight duration and five Round 3 victories demonstrate championship-level cardiovascular conditioning. He's comfortable maintaining output and executing complex techniques late in fights when opponents fade. Against a front-runner like Tafa who's never won past Round 2, this cardio advantage becomes exponentially more valuable as seconds tick away. If Elekana can weather the early storm without taking finish-level damage, his conditioning edge creates a compounding advantage that manifests in sharper technique, quicker recovery between exchanges, and maintained grappling pressure.
Elekana's 77-inch reach advantage combined with his southpaw stance creates natural defensive and offensive angles that Tafa must navigate. The left straight down the pipe and left high kick become potent weapons that exploit the orthodox/southpaw matchup dynamics. His ability to maintain distance with the jab while threatening counters keeps Tafa guessing and potentially hesitant to commit fully to power shots. The reach differential also aids defensive wrestling - longer frames make it easier to sprawl and maintain distance from takedown attempts.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Elekana's 46% striking defense and 3.28 SApM absorption rate create genuine knockout vulnerability against an elite power puncher. His tendency to engage in extended striking exchanges without perfect defensive fundamentals plays directly into Tafa's strengths. One mistimed entry, one moment of overcommitment on an offensive combination, or one failed level change could result in eating a fight-ending counter. The stark finish rate difference (100% vs 55.6%) reflects this reality - Tafa's finishes come violently and suddenly, while Elekana's often require accumulated damage or submission setups.
If Elekana decides to prove his striking credentials and engages in a primarily stand-up battle without mixing in wrestling, he likely loses. Despite his superior accuracy (60% vs 51%), Tafa's combination of power, defensive solidity (2.49 SApM vs 3.28), and killer instinct gives him clear advantages in pure striking exchanges. Elekana's path to victory requires using his complete skillset - abandoning the grappling threat to test himself as a striker would be tactically disastrous against someone with Tafa's finishing ability.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Elekana must implement disciplined striking-to-wrestling sequences from the opening bell. Use southpaw jab and left straight to establish range and timing, but immediately threaten level changes to prevent Tafa from settling into his power striking rhythm. Even failed takedown attempts serve a purpose - they drain Tafa's gas tank, force defensive wrestling, and create cumulative fatigue. The goal isn't necessarily to dominate on the ground, but to ensure Tafa can never exclusively focus on his striking game.
The first 7-8 minutes represent maximum danger - Elekana must prioritize survival and damage minimization during Tafa's peak power window. Use footwork, clinch entries, and cage positioning to break up Tafa's rhythm and prevent him from loading up on big shots. Accept lower-scoring early rounds if necessary, banking on cardio advantage to manifest decisively in Rounds 2-3. Once Tafa's explosiveness wanes, shift to more aggressive striking and grappling, capitalizing on his deteriorating defense and reduced power to score dominant late rounds or even secure a finish.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Stylistic Matchup
This fight represents a classic striker vs mixed martial artist dynamic where Tafa's explosive power creates genuine early finish threat, but Elekana's complete skillset provides more paths to victory over three rounds. The 30-foot cage initially favors movement and distance management, but as fatigue sets in, it transforms into space for Elekana to implement wrestling pressure and cage control. Tafa's 100% finish rate and average 5:24 duration suggest he either wins dramatically early or struggles dramatically late. Elekana's 81.8% win rate built on Round 3 dominance (five wins) indicates he's comfortable in deep waters where Tafa has never succeeded.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical differentials tell a compelling story: Tafa holds striking advantages in volume (3.19 vs 2.66 SLpM) and defensive efficiency (2.49 vs 3.28 SApM absorbed), but Elekana's 60% accuracy surpasses Tafa's 51%, and his grappling metrics (0.55 TD15, 0.6 SubPer15 vs Tafa's zeroes) provide genuine threat dimensions Tafa cannot match. Three of Tafa's four losses came via submission or ground-and-pound, exposing a glaring vulnerability that aligns perfectly with Elekana's strengths. The composite scores reflect this: Tafa's 75 striking composite exceeds Elekana's 65, but Elekana's 60 grappling composite dwarfs Tafa's 35, creating an overall technical score edge (62 vs 55) for the more well-rounded fighter.
🧩Critical Battle Areas
Three key battlegrounds will determine the outcome: early power exchanges vs survival, grappling implementation vs takedown defense, and cardio durability past Round 2. Tafa's 69% TD defense suggests he can stuff some attempts, but his submission losses prove scrambles and extended ground time spell disaster. Elekana's challenge is navigating Tafa's power window (first 7-8 minutes) without taking finish-level damage - his 46% striking defense and high absorption rate create genuine vulnerability. If Elekana survives into Round 2-3, his cardio advantage (70 vs 45 score) becomes exponentially decisive, especially when mixed with wrestling pressure that drains Tafa's already limited gas tank.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Billy Elekana by Decision (30% probability), achieved through mixed striking-grappling sequences that survive Tafa's early power and capitalize on late-fight dominance. Elekana's submission path (15%) opens significantly in Rounds 2-3 as Tafa fades and defensive lapses increase. Tafa's KO/TKO victory (41% combined) represents his primary and frankly only realistic path - landing clean power early before cardio and grappling concerns manifest. The slight edge to Elekana (54-46) reflects confidence that his complete skillset, superior cardio, and ability to exploit Tafa's grappling weaknesses outweigh the knockout danger, though we cannot underestimate the volatility inherent in light heavyweight power exchanges.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
GOOD VALUE
Model: 41% | Fair: +144
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Fair: -150
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues early KO – Market slightly underprices Elekana's survival and late-fight edge.
- • Undervalues cardio differential – 70 vs 45 cardio score creates compounding advantage past R2.
- • Grappling threat discount – Elekana's complete skillset provides more paths than moneyline reflects.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid statistical edge for Elekana, but knockout volatility prevents maximum confidence
✅Supporting Factors
- • Complete skillset advantage (grappling composite 60 vs 35)
- • Significant cardio edge (70 vs 45 score)
- • Multiple paths to victory (KO, sub, decision)
- • Round 3 dominance (5 wins) vs Tafa's zero
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Tafa's 100% finish rate and one-punch KO power
- • Elekana's 46% StrDef and 3.28 SApM vulnerability
- • Light heavyweight power creates binary outcomes
- • Small UFC sample sizes for both fighters
🏁Executive Summary
Billy Elekana enters as a slight favorite based on his complete MMA skillset, superior cardio engine, and proven ability to win rounds late when Tafa has historically faded. The statistical story is compelling: Elekana's grappling composite (60) more than compensates for Tafa's striking advantage (75 vs 65), and his cardio score (70 vs 45) creates a compounding edge as fights extend past Round 2. Tafa's path is clear but narrow - land fight-ending power within the first 7-8 minutes before cardio and grappling concerns manifest. His 100% finish rate and 5:24 average duration confirm he's built for explosive early victories, not prolonged battles.
Prediction: Elekana by Decision most likely (30% probability) through disciplined striking-grappling mixtures that survive Tafa's power window and capitalize on late dominance; Tafa by KO/TKO (41% probability) represents the knockout artist's realistic path - connecting clean power before his weaknesses manifest. The outcome hinges on whether Elekana can implement his gameplan through Tafa's dangerous early phases without taking finish-level damage, then shift to aggressive dominance when the cardio differential becomes decisive in Rounds 2-3.