Quillan Salkilld vs Rongzhu
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC 325
Saturday, January 31, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Quillan Salkilld
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rongzhu
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Quillan Salkilld
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Nasrat Haqparast | W | TKO - Head Kick (R1, 2:30) |
| 2025-06-07 | Yanal Ashmouz | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-08 | Anshul Jubli | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:45) |
| 2024-09-03 | Gauge Young | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Dom Mar Fan | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:03) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Rongzhu
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Austin Hubbard | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-08 | Kody Steele | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-07 | Chris Padilla | L | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R2, 4:14) |
| 2024-02-03 | Shin Haraguchi | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R3, 3:06) |
| 2023-08-27 | Sang Uk Kim | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (61.3 vs 45.4) and Grappling Composite (73.2 vs 49.8). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Quillan Salkilld Key Advantages
8.41 takedowns per 15min vs 2.29 represents a 3.67x differential that fundamentally controls fight location. Salkilld's chain-wrestling sequences—knee-tap entries into outside singles, mat returns, and half-guard rides—create minute-winning cycles that accumulate control time. His 100% TDD shows he's never been taken down in UFC, while his persistent re-shot ability wears down even good defensive grapplers like Rongzhu (83% TDD). The volume of attempts combined with fence pressure typically breaks through over three rounds. Salkilld's ability to chain multiple attempts and maintain pressure while Rongzhu defends creates fatigue differentials that compound as the fight progresses, especially in a three-round format where early control can secure rounds decisively.
The 3.40 strikes absorbed per minute differential (3.46 vs 6.86) creates a damage economy that heavily favors Salkilld in scoring optics. While Rongzhu's 5.35 SLpM output can rack volume, Salkilld's 60% striking accuracy and low absorption rate mean fewer clean shots land. This defensive efficiency compounds over three rounds—Salkilld maintains his pace without accumulating damage, while Rongzhu's high-volume approach leaves him vulnerable to counters and takedowns. The Australian's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with his precision striking that lands cleaner shots at a higher rate.
Salkilld's 60% striking accuracy represents elite precision while maintaining volume (5.48 SLpM). Against Rongzhu's 50% accuracy and high absorption rate (6.86 SApM), this creates a significant damage economy advantage. The 10-percentage-point accuracy gap means Salkilld lands significantly more clean shots per exchange, while his superior defense (45% StrDef vs Rongzhu's 49%) combined with lower absorption creates a compounding advantage. This precision-volume combination is rare in lightweight and allows Salkilld to score effectively when standing while setting up his takedown entries with greater success.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Rongzhu's 14 career KOs show real finishing power. If Salkilld gets too comfortable standing and trades in the pocket, Rongzhu's experience and power can change the fight instantly. The veteran's ability to land volume combinations (5.35 SLpM) means he can land the fight-ending shot if given opportunities. Salkilld's 45% striking defense, while not terrible, leaves openings for a puncher like Rongzhu who has proven finishing ability throughout his career.
If Salkilld fails to establish consistent pressure and the fight remains at extended range, Rongzhu's 5.35 SLpM volume advantage becomes significant. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Rongzhu to circle, reset, and maintain his preferred striking distance. His 50% accuracy combined with high output can overwhelm Salkilld's defensive shell, especially if the Australian becomes hesitant to shoot after early intercept attempts. Rongzhu's ability to rack up significant strike differentials in rounds where he maintains distance could sway judges, particularly in early rounds before Salkilld's pressure begins to take effect.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Salkilld should utilize jab feints and low kicks to force Rongzhu into a high guard, creating openings for level changes. His 60% striking accuracy suggests he can land these setup strikes while maintaining defensive positioning. The Australian's ability to mix striking entries with takedown attempts keeps Rongzhu guessing and prevents him from settling into rhythm. By varying his approach—sometimes feinting shots, sometimes committing—Salkilld can exploit Rongzhu's tendency to overreact to takedown threats, creating opportunities for clean entries and subsequent control sequences.
Once Salkilld secures takedowns, his priority should be establishing dominant positions and accumulating control time. His wrestling background emphasizes mat returns, wrist control, and short hammerfists rather than submission attempts. This approach maximizes scoring while minimizing risk—Salkilld can bank minutes through rides and positional control without exposing himself to submission attempts or sweeps. The Australian's 100% takedown defense suggests he can maintain top position once established, making this strategy both effective and sustainable over three rounds.
🚀 Rongzhu Key Advantages
27-6 record with 6 UFC fights vs Salkilld's 10-1 with 3 UFC appearances represents significant experience advantage. Rongzhu has seen every style and proven he can finish fights (77.8% finish rate). His 33 total professional fights mean he's navigated countless scenarios—from early knockouts to late-round comebacks, from wrestling pressure to striking wars. This veteran savvy becomes crucial in scrambles and when weathering early adversity. Rongzhu's ability to stay composed under pressure and find openings even when behind on the scorecards has been proven throughout his career, making him dangerous even when Salkilld appears to be controlling the fight.
14 career KOs demonstrate legitimate one-shot power. Against Salkilld's 45% striking defense, Rongzhu has pathways to land clean. His volume-striking approach (5.35 SLpM) means he's constantly creating opportunities to land the big shot. The Chinese fighter's ability to string together combinations can overwhelm opponents who struggle to match his pace or establish their own rhythm. When Rongzhu finds his timing, his power becomes particularly dangerous in early rounds when he's fresh and can sustain high output without grappling exchanges or takedown defense draining his energy.
Rongzhu's 5.35 SLpM output represents one of the higher striking rates in the lightweight division, creating significant volume advantages when fights remain upright. His ability to maintain this pace while switching stances and varying attack angles makes him difficult to counter effectively. The Chinese fighter's volume becomes particularly dangerous in early rounds when he's fresh and can sustain high output without fatigue. His 50% accuracy means he's landing clean shots consistently, and his ability to string together combinations can overwhelm opponents who struggle to match his pace or establish their own rhythm.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Salkilld's chain-wrestling sequences create a nightmare scenario for Rongzhu—once the Australian secures takedowns, his ability to chain shots, establish rides, and execute mat returns prevents Rongzhu from regaining his feet or establishing striking rhythm. The Chinese fighter's 83% takedown defense suggests he can stuff initial attempts, but Salkilld's re-shot ability and persistence typically break through. Once on the ground, Rongzhu's striking output drops to near zero while Salkilld accumulates control time and scoring opportunities. This scenario becomes increasingly likely as the fight progresses and Rongzhu's cardio begins to fade from defending takedowns.
Rongzhu's 13:06 average fight duration suggests he struggles to maintain his high-volume striking approach over extended periods when combined with grappling exchanges. His 5.35 SLpM output becomes increasingly difficult to sustain as fights progress, especially when combined with takedown defense and grappling exchanges. The Chinese fighter's cardio limitations become particularly apparent when Salkilld's wrestling pressure escalates. Rongzhu's tendency to fade in later rounds, combined with his high absorption rate (6.86 SApM), creates a dangerous combination where he becomes increasingly vulnerable to both striking counters and takedowns as his energy reserves deplete.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Rongzhu's optimal strategy involves maintaining perimeter control while threatening intercept strikes. His calf kicks and teeps should target Salkilld's base and mobility, making takedown entries more difficult. The Chinese fighter's ability to switch stances allows him to vary his attack angles and keep Salkilld guessing. When Salkilld does commit to shots, Rongzhu should threaten knees and uppercuts to deter entries and create counter opportunities. The key is maintaining distance while staying active enough to score points and prevent Salkilld from settling into rhythm or establishing consistent pressure.
Rongzhu's best chance for victory lies in front-loading damage during the first round when he's fresh and Salkilld hasn't yet established his wrestling rhythm. The Chinese fighter should look to capitalize on his early energy advantage by maintaining high output and landing clean shots before Salkilld's pressure begins to take effect. His 5.35 SLpM output becomes most dangerous when he can sustain it without grappling exchanges or takedown defense draining his energy. By establishing early momentum and potentially scoring knockdowns or significant damage, Rongzhu can force Salkilld to fight from behind and potentially alter the Australian's gameplan.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Rongzhu's volume striking and movement, but gradually shifting toward Salkilld's pressure as the fight progresses. Rongzhu's experience and footwork give him advantages in the early round when he can maintain distance and utilize his volume striking effectively. However, Salkilld's relentless pressure and chain-wrestling sequences gradually compress the available space, forcing Rongzhu into increasingly uncomfortable positions. The Australian's ability to cut off angles and force exchanges at the fence transforms the cage from Rongzhu's ally into Salkilld's weapon, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: wrestling activity and damage economy. Salkilld's 8.41 TD15 vs Rongzhu's 2.29 represents a 3.67x differential that fundamentally alters fight control and scoring dynamics. While Rongzhu's striking moments (5.35 SLpM, 50% accuracy) create impressive volume, Salkilld's damage economy (3.46 SApM vs 6.86) means he absorbs significantly less damage while maintaining offensive output. The Australian's 60% striking accuracy combined with his wrestling threat forces Rongzhu into uncomfortable exchanges where his high-volume approach becomes less effective. These differentials create a scoring framework where Salkilld's control time and damage efficiency consistently outweigh Rongzhu's striking output in judges' eyes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first-layer takedown defense vs chain wrestling at the fence, intercept strikes vs level changes, and early-round pace durability. Rongzhu's 83% takedown defense suggests he can stuff initial attempts, but Salkilld's persistence and re-shot ability typically break through over time. The Chinese fighter's intercept weapons (hooks, uppercuts, knees) represent his most dangerous tools against Salkilld's entries, but the Australian's ability to vary his approach and mix striking with takedowns makes these counters less predictable. As the fight progresses, Salkilld's superior cardio and technical skills become increasingly decisive, especially when combined with his wrestling pressure that forces Rongzhu to expend energy defending takedowns and fighting off his back.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Quillan Salkilld by Decision (31% probability), achieved through consistent takedown pressure, control time accumulation, and superior damage economy over three rounds. Salkilld's KO/TKO path (23%) becomes viable if his ground-and-pound accumulates damage through rides and mat returns, particularly in later rounds when Rongzhu's cardio begins to fade. Rongzhu's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (20%) via power counters as Salkilld commits to takedown attempts. The Chinese fighter's decision path (12%) requires maintaining extended range control throughout three rounds—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely as Salkilld's pressure escalates and the cage space compresses.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via grappling dominance and superior damage economy
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive takedown volume edge (8.41 vs 2.29 TD15)
- • Elite striking precision (60% vs 50% accuracy)
- • Superior damage economy (3.46 vs 6.86 SApM)
- • Perfect takedown defense (100% TDD)
- • Rising prospect momentum with 5-fight win streak
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Rongzhu's knockout power (14 career KOs)
- • Experience gap (33 vs 11 total fights)
- • Large cage provides space for Rongzhu to circle
- • Salkilld's relatively small UFC sample size (3 fights)
🏁Executive Summary
Quillan Salkilld's systematic approach to fight control should steadily compress the 30-foot octagon space and bank safe minutes through chain-wrestling sequences, while Rongzhu's best equity centers on early knockout opportunities and volume striking before the Australian's pressure takes hold. The statistical differentials heavily favor Salkilld: his 8.41 TD15 vs Rongzhu's 2.29 creates a 3.67x takedown volume advantage, while his 3.46 SApM vs Rongzhu's 6.86 represents superior damage economy that compounds over three rounds. Salkilld's 60% striking accuracy with 5.48 SLpM demonstrates elite precision-volume combination, while Rongzhu's 50% accuracy and high absorption rate (6.86 SApM) suggests defensive vulnerabilities. The Australian's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with his perfect takedown defense and persistent offensive wrestling.
Prediction: Salkilld by Decision most likely (31% probability) through consistent takedown pressure and control time accumulation; Rongzhu's upset lane is early KO/TKO (20%) via power counters as Salkilld commits to takedown attempts. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Rongzhu can capitalize on his early power advantages before Salkilld's wrestling pressure and superior technical skills become decisive factors.