Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2
Saturday, January 31, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Rafael Fiziev
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Mauricio Ruffy
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Rafael Fiziev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Ignacio Bahamondes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-08 | Justin Gaethje | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-23 | Mateusz Gamrot | L | TKO - Leg Injury (R2, 2:03) |
| 2023-03-18 | Justin Gaethje | L | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-09 | Rafael dos Anjos | W | TKO - Left Hook (R5, 0:18) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Mauricio Ruffy
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-06 | Benoit Saint Denis | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 2:56) |
| 2025-03-08 | Bobby Green | W | TKO - Heel Kick (R1, 2:07) |
| 2024-11-16 | James Llontop | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Jamie Mullarkey | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 4:42) |
| 2023-10-03 | Raimond Magomedaliev | W | TKO - Ground Pound (R3, 4:45) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (49.8 vs 63.4) and Grappling Composite (56.7 vs 25.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Rafael Fiziev Key Advantages
Fiziev's 0.89 takedowns per 15min with 73% accuracy gives him a functional grappling weapon that Ruffy completely lacks. While Fiziev is known as a striker, his ability to mix in clinch work and occasional takedowns provides a vital tactical option that can stall Ruffy's momentum, steal rounds in close exchanges, and force the Brazilian to think defensively rather than loading up on power shots.
Fiziev's 12:18 average fight duration versus Ruffy's 9:12 tells a clear story: Fiziev has been tested in deep waters against elite competition (Gaethje twice, dos Anjos, Gamrot) and maintained his output. His ability to fight at a high pace through three rounds while mixing strikes and grappling gives him a sustainability advantage if the fight becomes a war of attrition.
Fiziev's Muay Thai pedigree from Tiger Muay Thai gives him devastating leg kicks that can compromise Ruffy's explosiveness and mobility. Targeting the lead leg and calf can reduce Ruffy's ability to generate power on his strikes and limit his movement in the cage, particularly crucial in neutralizing the Brazilian's height and reach advantages by forcing flat-footed exchanges.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Fiziev gets drawn into a purely striking battle at range where Ruffy can utilize his 3.5" reach advantage and superior striking efficiency (59% accuracy vs 52%), the Brazilian's power and precision could accumulate damage. Ruffy's 92% finish rate means he only needs one clean shot to end the fight, and Fiziev's willingness to trade (4.77 SApM) could provide that opening.
Ruffy has six first-round finishes in his career and has shown the ability to capitalize on opponents' mistakes early. If Fiziev comes out overly aggressive trying to establish his game without proper set-up, he could walk into counter shots from a longer, more explosive striker who specializes in highlight-reel finishes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Fiziev should invest heavily in calf and thigh kicks early to compromise Ruffy's mobility and explosiveness. By attacking the base, he can reduce Ruffy's ability to generate power and limit his movement in the large cage, forcing more static exchanges where Fiziev's technical boxing and clinch work become more viable options.
When opportunities present, Fiziev should utilize his clinch game and occasional takedowns to break Ruffy's rhythm and steal rounds. These grappling interludes don't need to be extended - even brief clinch sequences against the cage can drain Ruffy's gas tank and force him to think defensively, opening up striking opportunities afterward.
🚀 Mauricio Ruffy Key Advantages
Ruffy's 92% finish rate (11 of 12 wins by KO/TKO) represents elite one-shot power that can end fights instantly. His highlight-reel finishes include a heel kick KO of Bobby Green and brutal ground-and-pound stoppages. This finishing ability means Ruffy is always dangerous regardless of how the fight is going - he only needs one clean connection to change the outcome completely.
At 5'11" with 75" reach versus Fiziev's 5'8" frame and 71.5" reach, Ruffy holds significant physical advantages that translate to better striking angles and defensive spacing. In the large 30-foot cage, these dimensions allow him to control distance, land from outside Fiziev's power range, and make it difficult for the shorter fighter to close distance without eating shots.
Ruffy's 59% striking accuracy and 61% striking defense significantly outpace Fiziev's 52% and 51% respectively. This efficiency differential means Ruffy lands more cleanly while absorbing less damage in pure striking exchanges. His ability to pick shots and avoid counters while maintaining offensive pressure makes him extremely dangerous in open space.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Ruffy's recent submission loss to Benoit Saint-Denis exposed a critical weakness: when faced with persistent grappling pressure, his defensive fundamentals broke down. Fiziev's functional wrestling game, while not as aggressive as BSD's, could exploit this vulnerability through clinch control and tactical takedowns that steal rounds and drain energy.
With only one UFC decision (vs Llontop) and most fights ending early, Ruffy's cardio remains largely untested at the UFC level. If Fiziev can survive early danger and push into late Round 2 and Round 3 while maintaining pressure, Ruffy's ability to sustain his explosive output becomes a significant question mark against an opponent with proven three-round durability.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Ruffy should maximize his physical advantages by keeping Fiziev at the end of his strikes. Using jabs, teeps, and long kicks to maintain distance prevents Fiziev from entering into his preferred mid-range pocket where his Muay Thai becomes most dangerous. The 30-foot cage provides ample space to circle and reset rather than engaging in sustained exchanges.
Ruffy's best path to victory is front-loading damage in the first 1-2 rounds when he's freshest and Fiziev hasn't yet established his rhythm. Loading up on power shots, mixing high kicks with straight punches, and looking for the finish early plays to his strengths while avoiding the cardio and durability questions that emerge in longer fights.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Stylistic Matchup
This fight represents a classic striker-vs-striker battle with a subtle grappling twist. Both fighters prefer to keep the fight standing and showcase their technical striking, but Fiziev's functional takedown game (0.89 TD15 with 73% accuracy) versus Ruffy's complete lack of offensive wrestling creates an asymmetric tactical dimension. While Ruffy holds clear advantages in pure striking metrics—59% accuracy and 61% defense versus Fiziev's 52% and 51%—along with superior size and reach, Fiziev's ability to mix in clinch work and occasional takedowns provides crucial "plan B" options that Ruffy cannot match.
⏱️Fight Timeline & Pacing
The fight's narrative arc heavily favors different fighters at different stages. Round 1 presents Ruffy's highest-value window: he's explosive, fresh, and can capitalize on any early mistakes with his devastating power (six career R1 finishes). Rounds 2-3 shift toward Fiziev's strengths as his leg kicks accumulate damage, Ruffy's gas tank becomes questionable, and the threat of tactical grappling forces defensive adjustments. Fiziev's 12:18 average fight duration versus Ruffy's 9:12 tells the story—the longer this fight goes, the more it trends toward the more experienced, cardio-proven fighter.
🔑Key Battlegrounds
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: distance management in the 30-foot cage, leg kick accumulation versus explosive counters, and cardio durability past the 10-minute mark. Ruffy's success depends on maintaining long-range spacing where his reach advantage (75" vs 71.5") and superior striking efficiency can dominate without Fiziev closing into his preferred mid-range pocket. Fiziev's path to victory runs through consistent leg kicks that compromise Ruffy's mobility and explosiveness, mixed with tactical clinch sequences that drain energy and prevent the Brazilian from settling into rhythm. The grappling threat, while subtle, looms large—Ruffy's recent submission loss to BSD and complete absence of offensive wrestling create a psychological and tactical advantage for Fiziev even if he never shoots a single takedown.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Rafael Fiziev by Decision (34% probability), achieved through consistent leg kicks, tactical clinch work, and superior cardio over three rounds. Fiziev's ability to mix striking with functional grappling creates a more complete offensive toolkit that should accumulate rounds even if he never dominates individual exchanges. Ruffy's primary path to victory runs through early KO/TKO (30% probability)—his elite power means he's always dangerous, and if Fiziev gets drawn into extended striking exchanges at range, one clean shot could end the night. The size and reach advantages are real, but fighting experience against elite competition, proven cardio, and tactical versatility give Fiziev a clear edge in a fight that likely goes the distance. Conviction Rating: 7/10—Ruffy's KO power keeps him live throughout, but the fundamentals favor the more complete, experienced fighter.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 34% | Fair: +194
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 48% | Fair: +108
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Ruffy's KO threat – Market may be overweighting early finish scenarios
- • Undervalues Fiziev's completeness – Grappling edge and proven cardio create hidden value
- • Decision markets underpriced – Both fighters' paths to victory favor distance
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Rafael Fiziev
Primary path via leg kicks and cardio advantage
Accumulative striking damage late in fight
Opportunistic submission from grappling exchanges
💥Outcome Distribution - Mauricio Ruffy
Best lane via explosive power strikes
Requires extended range control for three rounds
No meaningful submission offense
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Mauricio Ruffy
- • First 5-7 minutes: Highest KO equity with fresh legs
- • Distance control: Maintain range and avoid clinch
- • Load up early: Land big shots before fatigue sets in
🎯Progressive Dominance - Rafael Fiziev
- • Leg kick investment: Accumulate base damage throughout
- • Tactical grappling: Mix in clinch to drain energy
- • Late rounds: Leverage cardio advantage
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear edge in completeness and cardio, but live KO threat reduces certainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • Functional grappling advantage (0.89 TD15 vs 0.0)
- • Proven cardio over three rounds
- • Elite competition experience
- • Leg kick arsenal to compromise mobility
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Ruffy's elite KO power (92% finish rate)
- • Size and reach disadvantage for Fiziev
- • Ruffy's superior striking efficiency
🏁Executive Summary
Rafael Fiziev enters this fight as the more complete, proven commodity against a dangerous but less tested opponent in Mauricio Ruffy. Fiziev's functional wrestling game, proven cardio against elite competition, and devastating leg kicks create a tactical toolkit that should allow him to control the fight's narrative over three rounds. However, Ruffy's elite one-shot power (92% finish rate), superior striking efficiency (59% accuracy vs 52%), and significant size advantages (3" height, 3.5" reach) keep him live throughout the fight. The Brazilian's path to victory runs through explosive early finishes before Fiziev's pressure and leg kicks accumulate damage.
Prediction: Fiziev by Decision most likely (34% probability) through consistent leg kicks, tactical clinch work, and superior cardio; Ruffy's upset lane is early KO/TKO (30%) via explosive power strikes. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Ruffy can capitalize on his early advantages before Fiziev's completeness and experience take over. Conviction Rating: 7/10—fundamentals favor Fiziev, but Ruffy's power creates genuine upset potential.