Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint Denis
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2
Saturday, January 31, 2026 • Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Dan Hooker
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Benoit Saint Denis
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Dan Hooker
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Arman Tsarukyan | L | Submission - Arm Triangle (R2, 3:34) |
| 2024-08-17 | Mateusz Gamrot | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Jalin Turner | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-12 | Claudio Puelles | W | TKO - Body Kick (R2, 4:06) |
| 2022-03-19 | Arnold Allen | L | TKO - Strikes (R1, 2:33) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Benoit Saint Denis
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Beneil Dariush | W | KO - Left Hook (R1, 0:16) |
| 2025-09-06 | Mauricio Ruffy | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 2:56) |
| 2025-05-10 | Kyle Prepolec | W | Submission (R3, N/A) |
| 2024-09-28 | Renato Moicano | L | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R2, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-09 | Dustin Poirier | L | TKO - Right Hook (R2, 2:32) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (51.0 vs 52.7) and Grappling Composite (34.6 vs 59.1). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Dan Hooker Key Advantages
Hooker's 75-inch reach advantage combined with his 6'0" height creates significant striking opportunities at range. His arsenal includes long teeps, calf kicks, and intercept knees that can deter takedown attempts while scoring points. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Hooker to maintain this preferred distance longer, forcing Saint Denis to cover more ground and commit to longer entries that expose him to counters. Hooker's switch-stance ability and sharp jab make him particularly effective at managing distance and keeping Saint Denis guessing.
Hooker's 77% takedown defense represents years of experience defending elite wrestlers (Islam, Tsarukyan, Chandler). His clinch savvy, underhook control, and ability to break grips make him one of the harder lightweights to hold against the cage. Even when taken down, Hooker's get-up game and wall-walking ability mean he doesn't stay grounded for extended periods. This defensive wrestling, combined with his striking threat, forces BSD to work significantly harder for every takedown and control sequence.
With 23 UFC fights compared to Saint Denis's 11, Hooker brings deep experience in high-stakes moments and big-cage championship rounds. He's comfortable in chaos, knows how to manage pace in 3-round fights, and has faced significantly tougher competition at the elite level. This veteran savvy becomes crucial in tight exchanges and late-round scrambles where composure and ring IQ often separate experienced fighters from rising contenders. Hooker's ability to stay calm under pressure could prove decisive if the fight enters uncertain territory.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If BSD successfully pins Hooker to the fence and establishes his chain-wrestling sequences, the fight quickly becomes a grinding affair. BSD's 4.33 TDs/15 with relentless re-shot ability can break through even strong defensive wrestling over time. Once BSD secures control position, his top pressure, transitions, and submission threats (1.6 subs/15) create dangerous situations that drain Hooker's cardio and limit his offensive output. Extended grappling exchanges favor the younger, more explosive grappler.
BSD's hyper-aggressive southpaw pressure from the opening bell can overwhelm fighters who aren't prepared for the immediate intensity. His willingness to march forward throwing power shots while mixing in takedown entries creates a multi-layered threat that's difficult to defend. If Hooker gets backed up early and spends the first round defending rather than establishing his own rhythm, BSD's momentum and confidence build while Hooker's energy reserves deplete faster than ideal for a 3-round fight.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Early emphasis on calf kicks and body kicks to slow BSD's relentless pressure and explosive entries. By attacking the lead leg and midsection, Hooker can compromise BSD's base and cardio, making his takedown attempts less effective and his forward movement more cautious. These accumulating shots also score points while keeping the fight at Hooker's preferred range, setting up counters and creating openings for his jab-cross combinations.
Use the big cage to circle laterally, forcing BSD to reset and shoot from further out rather than establishing fence control. When BSD commits to entries, threaten with teeps, knees up the middle, and sharp counters. Break clinches quickly using underhooks and framing rather than engaging in prolonged wrestling. If BSD starts to slow in R2-R3, turn up volume, target the body, and push for a late TKO or decision edge through accumulated damage and control of range.
🚀 Benoit Saint Denis Key Advantages
BSD's 4.33 TDs/15 compared to Hooker's 0.71 represents a massive grappling volume advantage that fundamentally shifts fight control dynamics. His chain-wrestling persistence, southpaw angles, and willingness to shoot repeatedly create cumulative fatigue for defenders. Once on top, BSD's 1.6 subs/15 and heavy ground-and-pound make him one of the most dangerous finishing threats in lightweight. His 100% finish rate demonstrates that when he smells blood, he doesn't let opponents survive—a stark contrast to Hooker's decision-heavy profile.
At 29 years old, BSD is in his physical prime with fresher miles and superior recovery compared to the 35-year-old Hooker who has accumulated significant damage through wars. BSD's 7:33 average fight duration with 100% finish rate suggests he maintains explosive output throughout fights, while his 65.3 cardio score outpaces Hooker's 50.0. In a high-pace grappling-heavy fight, the younger fighter with better conditioning has a significant edge, especially in the critical third round where experience often battles fatigue.
BSD has never gone to decision in victory—every win comes via finish. This killer instinct, combined with his willingness to engage in firefights and take risks, creates constant finish threat throughout the fight. His recent 16-second KO of Dariush demonstrates explosive power that can end fights instantly, while his submission arsenal (11 career subs) means he's dangerous in every phase. Against a fighter with accumulated damage history like Hooker, BSD's finishing mentality could prove decisive when he inevitably finds openings.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If BSD can't establish consistent pressure and the fight remains at extended kicking range, Hooker's 2-inch reach advantage and superior striking defense (50% vs 42%) become significant factors. The big cage provides room for Hooker to circle and reset, forcing BSD to cover more ground and eat more counters on entries. Accumulated leg and body kicks can slow BSD's movement and compromise his explosive takedown entries, turning the fight into a technical striking match that favors Hooker's experience and length.
If Hooker successfully defends BSD's first 3-4 takedown attempts in R1, BSD's confidence and approach can shift dramatically. His 42% strike defense means he's hittable when forced to stand and strike, and repeated failed takedowns expose him to counters and intercepts. Historical data against elite strikers (Poirier, Moicano) shows BSD can be hurt and finished when his wrestling entries become predictable and his defensive layers break down under sustained striking pressure.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Immediately establish forward pressure from the opening bell with southpaw left hands and high kicks. Get Hooker to the fence as quickly as possible, then chain: strike → level change → trip → mat return. Mix body work and ground strikes to tax Hooker's cardio and posture, opening submission opportunities. The key is not letting Hooker settle into his rhythm or establish distance control—constant pressure and multi-layered threats keep him defensive and reactive.
Push hard for a finish in the first two rounds where BSD's finishing rate is historically highest (5 R1 wins, 4 R2 wins). Once Hooker shows fatigue from defending takedowns or absorbing strikes, increase aggression and commitment to finishing sequences. BSD's 100% finish rate means he should trust his instincts when he smells blood—don't let Hooker survive into R3 where experience and composure could swing momentum. Attack neck and back positions aggressively when opportunities present.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic where Hooker's 2-inch reach advantage and technical striking initially favor distance control, but Saint Denis's relentless pressure gradually compresses space. Hooker's ability to use the full cage in R1-R2 could keep the fight standing, but BSD's chain-wrestling persistence typically breaks through defensive wrestling over time. The big cage is a double-edged sword—it provides Hooker escape routes but also space for BSD to build momentum and cut off angles systematically.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals the primary battleground: BSD's 6.1x takedown volume advantage (4.33 vs 0.71 TD15) fundamentally alters fight control dynamics. While Hooker's 77% TDD suggests he can stuff initial attempts, BSD's persistence and re-shot ability typically break through over three rounds. Hooker's superior striking defense (50% vs 42%) and experience give him windows to hurt BSD on entries, but the younger fighter's 100% finish rate means any sustained success quickly becomes dangerous. The technical edge in pure striking favors Hooker slightly, but BSD's multi-dimensional threat creates constant pressure that limits Hooker's offensive rhythm.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas determine the outcome: Hooker's TDD vs BSD's chain wrestling, intercept strikes vs takedown entries, and R3 cardio durability. If Hooker stuffs 3-4 early takedowns, BSD's striking vulnerabilities become exploitable and momentum shifts. However, if BSD secures even 2-3 takedowns in R1-R2, accumulated fatigue compromises Hooker's defensive reactions and striking output. The age and damage differential (29 vs 35, fresher vs accumulated wars) becomes increasingly relevant as the fight progresses, favoring BSD's sustained pressure and finishing threat in later rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Benoit Saint Denis by Finish (31% KO/TKO, 24% Submission = 55% finish probability), achieved through relentless pressure that eventually breaks through Hooker's defenses and creates finishing opportunities. BSD's R1-R2 finishing history (5+4=9 early finishes) aligns with his aggressive approach and Hooker's durability concerns. Hooker's best path (38% total) centers on decision victory (18%) by maintaining range control across three rounds, with KO equity (19%) coming from intercepts and counters as BSD commits to entries. The submission lane for either fighter remains unlikely given Hooker's defensive grappling and BSD's preference for GNP over sub hunting, though BSD's 1.6 subs/15 keeps that threat alive if he secures dominant positions.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 31% | Fair: -223
GOOD VALUE
Model: 19% | Fair: +426
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Fair: -150
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues finishing threat – BSD's 100% finish rate creates constant danger.
- • Overweights experience – Age and damage differential favor younger BSD in grinding fights.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early but BSD's pressure typically compresses over time.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Dan Hooker
Range control and technical striking
Intercepts and counters on entries
Low submission threat profile
💥Outcome Distribution - Benoit Saint Denis
Pressure and power shots
Top control and transitions
Requires extended control
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Dan Hooker
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest intercept KO equity.
- • Range control: Leg kicks and teeps to stall entries.
- • Counter opportunities: Exploit BSD's defensive gaps on entries.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Benoit Saint Denis
- • Chain shots: Re-mats and rides bank control and sap pace.
- • Finishing instinct: Trust instincts when openings present.
- • Late minutes: Cardio edge becomes decisive in R3.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via grappling dominance and finishing threat
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive takedown volume edge (4.33 vs 0.71 TD15)
- • 100% finish rate creates constant danger
- • Youth and cardio advantages in grinding fights
- • Submission threat (1.6 subs/15) adds finishing dimension
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Hooker's 77% TDD can stuff early attempts
- • Big cage extends early range time
- • Hooker's experience in high-stakes moments
🏁Executive Summary
Benoit Saint Denis's relentless pressure and grappling dominance should gradually break through Dan Hooker's defensive wrestling over three rounds, while Hooker's best equity centers on early range control and intercept strikes before BSD's pressure takes hold. The statistical differentials heavily favor Saint Denis: his 4.33 TDs/15 vs Hooker's 0.71 creates a 6.1x takedown volume advantage, while his 100% finish rate means every sustained success quickly becomes dangerous. Saint Denis's 7:33 average fight duration with 100% finish rate demonstrates exceptional finishing instinct, while Hooker's 10:13 duration and accumulated damage history suggest vulnerability to sustained pressure. The younger fighter's superior cardio (65.3 vs 50.0) becomes increasingly decisive in the critical third round where experience often battles fatigue.
Prediction: Saint Denis by Finish most likely (55% finish probability: 31% KO/TKO, 24% Submission) through relentless pressure that eventually breaks through Hooker's defenses; Hooker's best path is decision victory (18%) by maintaining range control across three rounds, with KO equity (19%) coming from intercepts and counters as Saint Denis commits to entries. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Hooker can stuff early takedowns and establish his range game before Saint Denis's pressure and superior cardio become decisive factors.