Miles Johns vs Muin Gafurov
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Apex
Saturday, November 1, 2025 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage) • UFC Apex
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Miles Johns
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | Jean Matsumoto | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-14 | Felipe Lima | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-15 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-23 | Cody Gibson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-23 | Dan Argueta | NC | No Contest - Overturned (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Muin Gafurov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Rinya Nakamura | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-22 | Kyung Ho Kang | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-21 | Said Nurmagomedov | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 1:13) |
| 2023-06-03 | John Castaneda | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-10-14 | Diego Silva | W | TKO - Spinning Back Kick to the Body (R3, 0:23) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (78 vs 72) and Grappling Composite (65 vs 68). Johns edges in striking defense and efficiency; Gafurov carries slightly higher takedown volume.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish intent. Johns sustains a steady pace over 3 rounds; Gafurov shows recent 3-round consistency.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Slight edge to Johns on defensive efficiency; Gafurov narrows the gap with pressure and wrestling activity.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Miles Johns Key Advantages
Elite striking defense (68%) and strong takedown defense (82%) allow Johns to keep the fight at mid-range, win clean minutes, and punish exits from the clinch—especially valuable in a 25ft cage. His defensive fundamentals have been battle-tested across 19 professional fights, showing he can avoid damage while controlling range. The 82% TDD is particularly valuable against Gafurov's 1.47 TD/15 rate, creating a significant defensive buffer that allows Johns to dictate where the fight takes place.
Compact jab-cross, disciplined footwork, and counter right hand score reliably against Gafurov's linear entries, helping Johns edge rounds without overextending. His 45% striking accuracy demonstrates technical precision, and combined with his ability to maintain output over three rounds, creates a consistent scoring advantage. Johns's boxing fundamentals allow him to control range effectively while minimizing risk, a crucial factor in decision-oriented bantamweight contests.
Johns carries steady output through 3 rounds and routinely seals minutes late, aligning with his decision-heavy win profile. His 13:24 average fight duration indicates he can maintain effectiveness over longer periods, crucial for outworking opponents who may fade. The consistent pace over full fights creates cumulative advantages in judges' scoring, especially in closely contested rounds where late-round surges can be decisive.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Gafurov pins Johns on the fence and chains takedown attempts into rides and mat returns, Johns may be forced into reactive grappling and concede control time. The small cage environment makes fence work more prevalent, and if Gafurov can establish his clinch game early, Johns's defensive advantages diminish as he's forced to defend in compressed space. This scenario becomes particularly dangerous if Johns expends energy defending multiple takedown attempts, potentially compromising his striking output in later rounds.
Early calf kicks and body kicks from Gafurov can slow Johns' entries and exits, disrupting timing and reducing his ability to reset to center. Accumulated leg kick damage over three rounds can significantly compromise Johns's mobility and footwork, which are crucial to his defensive strategy. If his movement becomes compromised, Gafurov's takedown attempts become more effective, and Johns's ability to maintain center control diminishes, potentially shifting the fight's momentum.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish jab and low kicks, defend first-layer takedowns, and counter on clinch breaks. Spike volume late each round to secure the judges' optics in a small cage. His 82% TDD provides confidence to engage in striking exchanges without constant fear of takedowns. By controlling the center and forcing Gafurov to work from the outside, Johns can dictate pace and range, maximizing his technical boxing advantages while minimizing grappling exchanges.
Avoid extended clinch exchanges; whenever stuck on fence, break and reset to the logo, where Johns' boxing advantage is clearest. Every second spent in clinch range favors Gafurov's grappling, so Johns must prioritize quick exits and immediate return to striking distance. His footwork and cage awareness become crucial in preventing Gafurov from establishing sustained pressure along the fence, where Johns's technical advantages diminish.
🚀 Muin Gafurov Key Advantages
Gafurov mixes kicks into level changes and strings together attempts to accumulate control time—especially effective early in small cages. His 39% takedown accuracy combined with high volume creates opportunities even against Johns's strong 82% TDD. The small cage environment amplifies his pressure game by reducing escape routes and increasing fence time, where his grappling becomes most effective. Multiple takedown attempts, even when unsuccessful, can fatigue Johns's defensive structures and create openings for later rounds.
Teeps and body kicks disrupt Johns' rhythm and set up level changes; spinning attacks can surprise early to win moments. His kicking arsenal provides multiple entry points—teeps create distance for takedown setups, body kicks drain cardio and lower Johns's guard, while calf kicks compromise the footwork that Johns relies on for his defensive movement. The diversity of kicking attacks forces Johns to defend multiple levels and timings, potentially creating openings in his otherwise solid defensive structure.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Johns keeps the fight in the center and denies chains, Gafurov's 53% striking defense can be exposed by straight shots and counters on exits. Johns's 68% striking defense creates a significant 15% differential that becomes pronounced in extended striking exchanges. The technical boxing advantage allows Johns to land clean while avoiding damage, creating cumulative scoring edges that become decisive over three rounds. Gafurov's offensive focus leaves defensive vulnerabilities that Johns can exploit with precise counters.
Failed first-layer takedowns without clean re-shots lead to stalled pressure and scoring minutes for Johns. Against Johns's 82% TDD, repeated stuffed takedowns without successful conversions drain Gafurov's energy while allowing Johns to accumulate striking volume. If Gafurov cannot establish his wrestling game early, his path to victory narrows significantly, forcing him into extended striking exchanges where Johns holds clear technical advantages.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use kicks to force high guard, shoot to the fence, and chain attempts with rides/mat returns to bank control time and fatigue Johns' arms. The key is persistence—even stuffed takedowns create defensive workload that accumulates over rounds. By mixing kicking attacks with wrestling entries, Gafurov can keep Johns guessing and prevent him from settling into his preferred striking rhythm. Fence control becomes crucial for banking minutes even without completing takedowns, as prolonged clinch work can shift judges' perception and fatigue Johns's defensive structures.
Front-load activity in R1–R2 to capture momentum before Johns' adjustments and cardio edge come online. Johns's 13:24 average fight duration suggests he gets stronger as fights progress, making early rounds critical for Gafurov. Establishing a lead through aggressive grappling and kicking volume in the first two rounds can force Johns to deviate from his patient, controlled approach. If Gafurov can build an early advantage, Johns may be forced to take risks that compromise his defensive fundamentals.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot octagon compresses space, initially favoring pressure and level changes. However, Johns' takedown defense (82%) and striking defense (68%) translate into clean resets to center and scoring jabs/overhands, particularly late in rounds. The reduced cage space creates a double-edged dynamic—while it amplifies Gafurov's pressure game by limiting escape routes, it also provides Johns with more opportunities to counter off the fence and establish center control after defensive successes. Johns's ability to reset to mid-range after stuffing takedowns becomes more valuable in the small cage, as each reset creates immediate striking opportunities in compressed space.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Johns' defensive efficiency and mid-range boxing give him the cleaner optics; Gafurov's path relies on chaining takedowns and banking fence minutes. If first-layer shots are denied, Johns' advantage widens. The statistical differentials reveal the core tactical dynamic—Johns's 15% striking defense advantage (68% vs 53%) and 7% striking accuracy edge (45% vs 38%) create cumulative scoring opportunities in extended exchanges. Gafurov's 1.47 TD/15 rate represents his primary weapon, but against Johns's 82% TDD, conversions become difficult, forcing Gafurov into extended pressure sequences that drain energy and limit striking output. Johns's 3.16 SLpM combined with superior defense allows him to outscore Gafurov in striking minutes while minimizing damage taken.
🧩Key Battle Areas
First-layer TDD vs. re-shot chains, leg-kick damage vs. resets, and late-round pace management. Johns typically excels in minutes 3–5 with defensive reads and counter timing. The battle between Johns's 82% TDD and Gafurov's wrestling volume will define the fight's trajectory—if Johns can consistently stuff initial attempts and reset to center, his technical boxing advantages compound. Gafurov's leg kicks targeting Johns's mobility represent a critical secondary weapon that could compromise the defensive footwork Johns relies on. The cardio differential becomes pronounced in late rounds, where Johns's 13:24 average fight duration suggests sustained effectiveness while Gafurov's output may decline after unsuccessful early pressure.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Miles Johns by Decision (42% probability) through defensive wrestling, center control, and clean boxing. Gafurov's upset lanes are Decision (26%) or Submission (6%) if extended fence control and level-change chains materialize consistently. The bantamweight division's tendency toward decision-heavy contests aligns with Johns's patient, defensive approach and 73% decision win rate. Gafurov's path requires sustained early success with takedowns and fence control to build a lead, but Johns's superior cardio and defensive fundamentals suggest he becomes more dominant as the fight progresses. The small cage environment creates volatility in early rounds where Gafurov's pressure is most effective, but Johns's ability to manage adversity and finish rounds strong provides a reliable path to victory.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 42% | Fair: +140
GOOD VALUE
Model: 64% | Fair: -180
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 6% | Fair: +1565
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Small-cage bias – early pressure priced in, but late resets favor Johns’ optics.
- • Underestimates defensive gap – StrDef/TDD differentials tilt close rounds.
- • Overweights finish history – UFC recent results trend to decisions.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Miles Johns
Center control and defensive wrestling
Clean counters on entries and exits
Opportunistic subs off scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Muin Gafurov
Intercepts or attritional damage early
Fence control and takedown cycles
Front-choke series or back-takes off rides
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Muin Gafurov
- • First 7–10 minutes: highest shot at fence control and momentum.
- • Perimeter control: teeps + body kicks to stall entries.
- • Short pockets: burst then reset; avoid extended clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Miles Johns
- • First-layer TDD: deny chains and reset to logo.
- • Damage economy: clean jabs/overhands; minimize risk.
- • Late minutes: spike volume to edge decisions.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear edge via TDD and striking defense; pressure variance keeps risk live
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant defensive gap (StrDef 68% vs 53%)
- • Strong TDD (82%) to deny chains
- • Clean mid-range optics in a small cage
- • Late-round pace and discipline
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Early pressure and fence rides
- • Leg kick accumulation reducing mobility
- • Judges rewarding control optics
🏁Executive Summary
Miles Johns' defensive skill set should neutralize first-layer takedowns and turn fence exchanges into scoring resets at center, while Muin Gafurov's best lane is early pressure and takedown chains. The statistical differentials favor Johns: better striking defense and TDD, plus steady 3-round cardio. This matchup represents a classic defensive specialist versus pressure wrestler dynamic, with Johns's 82% TDD creating a significant barrier to Gafurov's primary offensive weapon.
The bantamweight contest at the UFC Apex features two fighters with contrasting approaches—Johns's patient, defensive boxing style emphasizes avoiding damage while accumulating clean scoring strikes, while Gafurov relies on volume wrestling and kicking attacks to create control time and scoring opportunities. Johns's 68% striking defense versus Gafurov's 53% creates a 15-point differential that becomes decisive in extended striking exchanges. The 25-foot cage compresses space, initially favoring Gafurov's pressure game, but Johns's ability to reset to center after defensive successes provides consistent opportunities to establish his preferred mid-range striking distance.
Prediction: Johns by Decision most likely (42% probability) through defensive wrestling and mid-range control; Gafurov's upset lanes are Decision (26%) or Submission (6%) if pressure and rides are sustained. The small cage environment creates early-round volatility where Gafurov's wrestling volume is most effective, but Johns's superior cardio (13:24 average fight duration) and defensive fundamentals suggest he becomes increasingly dominant as the fight progresses. Johns's 73% decision win rate aligns perfectly with the predicted outcome, reflecting his systematic approach to winning rounds through defensive efficiency and consistent striking output rather than seeking finishes.