Chepe Mariscal vs Pat Sabatini
UFC Apex • UFC 322
Saturday, November 15, 2025 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Pace and Durability
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Control and Submission Threat
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Chepe Mariscal
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Ricardo Ramos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-10 | Damon Jackson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-06 | Morgan Charriere | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-09 | Jack Jenkins | W | KO/TKO - Arm Injury (R2, 3:19) |
| 2023-06-24 | Trevor Peek | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Pat Sabatini
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Joanderson Brito | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-12 | Jonathan Pearce | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 4:06) |
| 2023-11-11 | Diego Lopes | L | KO - Punches (R1, 1:30) |
| 2023-06-17 | Lucas Almeida | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R2, 1:48) |
| 2022-09-17 | Damon Jackson | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:09) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (Chepe 78 vs Pat 62) and Grappling Composite (Chepe 66 vs Pat 78). Reflects the balance between high-volume striking and elite grappling pressure.
💪Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Chepe's longer average duration (13:40) and output support sustained pace across three rounds in a large 30-foot Octagon.
🎯Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view combining skill and conditioning for both fighters.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Chepe Mariscal Key Advantages
Mariscal's elite volume output (4.95 strikes per minute) with 56% accuracy creates overwhelming pressure, forcing opponents into defensive shells. His 52% striking defense absorbs minimal damage while maintaining forward pressure, evidenced by his UFC debut dismantling of Damon Jackson where he landed 125 significant strikes in just 10 minutes. This pace advantage becomes decisive in a large cage where lateral movement and range control favor the higher-volume fighter.
Exceptional 73% takedown defense represents Mariscal's most reliable tool against wrestlers. His compact frame, strong base, and explosive sprawls have frustrated elite grapplers like Kevin Holland and Gilbert Burns, stuffing over 70% of their attempts. In the 30-foot UFC Apex cage, this defense transforms into an offensive weapon, allowing him to reset, counter, and maintain striking range where he dominates.
Mariscal's exceptional conditioning (13:40 average fight time) proves he can sustain championship-level volume across five rounds. His ability to maintain output late contrasts sharply with fighters who fade, giving him a massive advantage in decision scenarios. In the UFC Apex, where space allows for extended striking exchanges, this cardio edge could be the difference in rounds 4-5.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Sabatini secures early takedown entries and transitions to top control, Mariscal's limited grappling experience becomes exposed. His 0.22 submissions per 15 minutes indicate vulnerability to sustained ground sequences, especially if Sabatini can chain wrist rides into back takes. The larger cage actually amplifies this risk by giving Sabatini more room to complete transitions.
Sabatini's cage awareness and inside trips can pin Mariscal against the fence, preventing the lateral movement that fuels his striking game. Once pinned, Mariscal's 3.07 strikes absorbed per minute becomes a liability as Sabatini grinds for position and submission attempts, turning Mariscal's supposed cardio advantage into a deficit.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish jab dominance to control distance, then explode with combinations when Sabatini overcommits to shots. Use the large cage to create angles for counters, forcing Sabatini to chase while maintaining superior footwork and volume.
Front-load volume in early rounds to establish a significant lead, making Sabatini desperate for takedowns. The 30-foot cage amplifies this strategy by providing more room to evade entries and punish failed attempts with combinations.
🚀 Pat Sabatini Key Advantages
Sabatini's 3.98 takedowns per 15 minutes with 49% accuracy represents world-class wrestling volume, complemented by 1.79 submissions per 15 minutes that target the back and neck. His ability to chain sequences from standing entries to ground control has finished elite competition like Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier.
Sabatini absorbs just 1.22 strikes per minute, the lowest among active UFC featherweights, allowing him to maintain wrestling pace throughout fights. This defensive excellence combined with his 50% striking defense means he can weather early storms and still execute takedowns late, preserving energy for championship rounds.
Sabatini's technical wrestling IQ allows him to chain level changes into wrist rides, progressing to back takes and submission attempts. His recent victories over Jonathan Pearce and Lucas Almeida demonstrate how he builds positions systematically, turning failed strikes into dominant sequences that wear down opponents over time.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Sabatini's 1.87 strikes per minute becomes a liability if Mariscal successfully defends takedowns. The resulting kickboxing exchanges would favor Mariscal's volume and accuracy, forcing Sabatini to engage in his weakest area while potentially tiring from repeated failed entries.
Mariscal's 73% takedown defense means many of Sabatini's shots will be stuffed, leaving him exposed to counters. A single failed entry punished with a combination could swing momentum and discourage further aggression, forcing Sabatini into a passive approach that plays into Mariscal's volume game.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use feints and level changes to draw Mariscal's sprawls, then immediately chain into fence work. Secure wrist control to prevent strikes, grinding for position upgrades that lead to back takes or arm triangles. The large cage provides space for proper shot setups.
Avoid extended striking exchanges by using selective counters to bait Mariscal's pressure. Keep damage minimal while looking for entries, conserving energy for the grinding phase where Sabatini's cardio advantage becomes decisive.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Venue & Physical Dynamics
The UFC Apex's massive 30-foot Octagon fundamentally alters the fight dynamics compared to the standard 25-foot cage. Mariscal's compact 67-inch frame and explosive movement patterns are amplified in the extra space, allowing him to create superior angles for counters and maintain distance where his volume striking dominates. Sabatini's 68-inch height and wrestling background give him the physical tools to close gaps, but the larger canvas means he must commit more decisively to entries, potentially exposing him to the sprawl-and-brawl strategy that has worked against similar grapplers.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Mariscal's striking metrics represent an overwhelming advantage in volume and efficiency, landing 4.95 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy while defending 52% of incoming strikes. This output creates constant pressure that can dictate the pace and prevent Sabatini from establishing his wrestling rhythm. However, Sabatini's grappling supremacy (3.98 TD/15 at 49% accuracy, 1.79 Sub/15) represents the single most dangerous weapon in his arsenal, capable of ending fights quickly if entries land cleanly. The key technical battle centers on Mariscal's elite 73% takedown defense, which must hold to keep the fight in striking range where he owns a decisive edge.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The opening round establishes the fight's trajectory through the critical takedown defense vs. wrestling pressure battle. Mariscal must use his explosive sprawls and frame control to neutralize Sabatini's initial entries, maintaining center cage position to unleash his volume striking. If Sabatini can land early takedowns and transition to sustained top control, his grinding wrestling style builds momentum through wrist rides and position advancement. Each failed entry punished by Mariscal's combinations swings momentum toward the striker, while successful chains by Sabatini force Mariscal into defensive grappling where his inexperience becomes exposed.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Mariscal achieves victory by maintaining striking range, using his volume and accuracy to out-land Sabatini across three rounds while his takedown defense prevents the fight from hitting the mat. His cardio advantage becomes decisive in championship rounds. Sabatini's victory requires clean entries leading to top position where he can grind through wrist control, advance to back takes, and finish with submissions targeting the neck and arms. The large cage amplifies both paths - giving Mariscal more room to strike while requiring Sabatini to commit more to entries.
🏁Final Prediction
Statistical analysis heavily favors Mariscal's (63%) path to victory through superior volume striking and takedown defense in the expansive UFC Apex cage. His ability to maintain distance and punish failed entries creates a decisive edge in what projects as a three-round striking battle. Sabatini's (37%) submission threat remains his most viable path, requiring perfect execution of entries and transitions that Mariscal's defensive wrestling has proven difficult to achieve. The model predicts Mariscal by Decision or KO/TKO in the majority of simulations, with Sabatini's submissions representing high-variance outliers rather than the baseline outcome.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 34% • Seek fair value at ≥ +185
GOOD VALUE
Model: 55% • Prefer plus-money
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 22% • Seek ≥ +400
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Moneyline elasticity increases as limits rise—target best price.
- • Submission props can steam; monitor early prices.
- • Decision lines may offer value if market overweights submission threat.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Chepe Mariscal
Punish entries and create damage windows
Sustained volume in space
Low probability counter-sub scenarios
💥Outcome Distribution - Pat Sabatini
Primary path via control and back-takes
Sustained control minutes
Ground strikes/counters
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Pat Sabatini
- • First 5–10 minutes: Highest submission equity via early entries.
- • Fence control: Wrist rides and back-takes create finish windows.
- • Chain sequences: Level changes into mat returns maximize control.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Chepe Mariscal
- • Volume accumulation: Sustained output creates minute-winning differentials.
- • TDD maintenance: Keep fight standing where volume edge compounds.
- • Late rounds: Cardio advantage becomes decisive as pace escalates.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Volume vs. grappling leverage; cage size nudges minutes toward Chepe
✅Supporting Factors
- • 4.95 SLpM with 56% accuracy for Chepe
- • 73% TDD vs 3.98 TD/15 test favors more time standing
- • 30-foot Octagon improves exit routes and resets
- • Pat's low SApM helps his cardio but reduces striking output
- • Chepe's recent minute-winning performances
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Pat's early submission chains
- • Chepe absorbing 3.07 SApM in scramble-heavy rounds
- • Judging variance if control vs damage trade-offs
- • Entry timing vs counter exposure
🏁Executive Summary
Striker vs grappler dynamics with a notable volume gap. Chepe's TDD and output tilt minutes his way in the large cage; Pat's best win condition is concentrated in earlier submission sequences.
Prediction: Chepe Mariscal by Decision or KO/TKO. Live entries on Pat Sabatini by Submission if early control established.