Malcolm Wellmaker vs Cody Haddon
UFC Apex • UFC 322
Saturday, November 15, 2025 • Las Vegas, Nevada
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Malcolm Wellmaker
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Cody Haddon
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Malcolm Wellmaker
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Kris Moutinho | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 2:37) |
| 2025-04-26 | Cameron Saaiman | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 1:59) |
| 2024-08-27 | Adam Bramhald | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 2:29) |
| 2024-01-20 | Chase Boutwell | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 4:06) |
| 2023-10-14 | Taylor Moore | W | Decision - Majority (R5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cody Haddon
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-12 | Dan Argueta | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-20 | Billy Brand | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 3:09) |
| 2024-03-02 | Paul Loga | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 3:22) |
| 2023-08-18 | Raja Shippen | W | KO/TKO - Knee to the Body (R1, 1:00) |
| 2022-09-30 | Dong Il Kim | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 0:56) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Wellmaker's 72 striking composite and 45 grappling composite average into a 59 technical score that leans heavily on elite boxing mechanics. Haddon counters with 78 striking and 75 grappling composites, producing a balanced 77 that reflects a far more complete offensive arsenal.
💪 Cardio Score
Wellmaker has blitzed opponents early—averaging 2:22 of cage time—but that leaves unknowns for extended battles, reflected in a 65 cardio score. Haddon's 85 score is built on 15-minute pacing, chain-wrestling sequences, and demonstrated durability through multiple regional championship rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Averaging the technical and cardio dimensions highlights the stylistic gap: Wellmaker's peak explosiveness (62% accuracy, 7.2 SLpM) drives a 62 overall score, while Haddon's layered toolkit (9.2 SLpM with 2.48 TD/15) elevates him to 81—a profile tailor-made for sustainable minute winning.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Malcolm Wellmaker Key Advantages
Wellmaker's 62% significant strike accuracy and 7.2 SLpM output produce one of the sharpest boxing profiles in the division. He layers straight-right counters with level-changing uppercuts, generating six first-round stoppages and scoring knockdowns in 60% of recorded fights.
At 5'10" with a 71" reach, Wellmaker occupies the long Bantamweight archetype. He uses stance switches and feints to control the center, forcing opponents to navigate check hooks and intercept knees before entering their own range.
Eight of Wellmaker's ten wins end inside the distance, with six concluded inside five minutes. His ability to stack damage early forces opponents to either weather an onslaught or extend themselves defensively, creating scoring optics on the cards even when the finish doesn't come.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Wellmaker has attempted zero takedowns in recorded data. If Haddon's 2.48 TD/15 mat returns keep the fight grounded, the striker faces unfamiliar terrain that could sap his explosion and concede control minutes.
Haddon's pressure double-leg into mat-return flow can trap Wellmaker along the Octagon wall, negating his footwork and forcing reactive grappling sequences where he has limited live reps.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish jab feints and intercept knees to keep Haddon on the outside. Force the Australian to shoot from distance, where sprawls and angles can maintain striking rhythm.
Mix body-head combinations with stance switches to exploit Haddon's linear retreat patterns. Volume accrual in the opening five minutes is critical before the wrestler finds his rhythm.
🚀 Cody Haddon Key Advantages
Haddon's 37% takedown accuracy paired with relentless re-shots produces long control sequences. When he gets to body locks, he rides opponents back to the mat and immediately attacks the back—evidenced by 0.83 submissions per 15 minutes.
With 64% striking defense, Haddon rarely absorbs clean shots. He mitigates damage by exiting on angles and forcing clinches after exchanges, neutralizing opponents before they can layer combinations.
Haddon's lone UFC appearance showcased 15 minutes of relentless pressure—maintaining 9.2 SLpM while chaining takedowns and positional rides. That pace wears on pure strikers whose energy systems revolve around explosive bursts.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Overzealous level changes walk directly into Wellmaker's intercept knees and tight uppercuts. A single clean counter can flip momentum or end the fight outright.
When opponents force him into kickboxing matches in open space, Haddon's 51% accuracy must compete with elite sharpshooters. Eating damage while failing to secure takedowns erodes confidence and round scoring.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Mix striking entries with immediate level changes, forcing Wellmaker to defend multiple attempts. Failures should transition instantly into fence rides and mat returns to tax the striker's base.
Stay defensively responsible on the feet, using calf kicks and straight punches to hide level changes. The objective is to accumulate damage only after establishing positional control.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven simulation outcomes derived from striking, grappling, and cardio metrics
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Venue Dynamics
The 30-foot Apex cage initially favors Wellmaker's range control, but Haddon's relentless cage-cutting quickly compresses space. Expect an early pocket of striking exchanges before the wrestler shifts the fight to clinches and mat rides.
🎯Technical Outlook
Wellmaker's win condition is built on early, accurate artillery. Haddon's correspondingly high SLpM comes with defensive layers—transitioning between striking and wrestling to tax the striker's base. Once Haddon's hands connect behind the hips, positional progression becomes inevitable.
🧩Key Battlefields
The fight swings on entries: if Wellmaker maintains the pocket with level-changing uppercuts, he protects his hips and dishes damage. Once Haddon chains takedowns together, control time and submission threats escalate quickly, especially against an opponent with limited defensive grappling tape.
🏁Model Verdict
The simulation favors Cody Haddon behind sustainable offense and defensive responsibility, while acknowledging Malcolm Wellmaker's ability to upend projections with a single clean counter during the opening exchanges.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Identifying value edges between our model projections and live BetOnline markets
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAX VALUE
Model: 33% • Fair: +203 • Wait for market drift
GOOD VALUE
Model: -156 • Snap at -140 or better before steam
SPEC VALUE
Model: 28% • Fair: +257 • Hedge for early volatility
⚠️Market Notes
- • Expect Haddon steam late fight week as limits rise—capture early lines.
- • Submission props on Haddon are fragile; hold for plus-money only.
- • Wellmaker KO props will widen if the market overvalues Haddon's durability.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
Distribution across 100 fight simulations with situational adjustments
🏆Outcome Distribution - Malcolm Wellmaker
Primary lane via early pocket exchanges
Requires stuffing takedowns while winning optics
Low frequency counter-sub scenarios
💥Outcome Distribution - Cody Haddon
Attritional ground-and-pound after fatigue sets in
Back-take sequences off fence returns
Control-heavy approach with minimal risk
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Wellmaker Win Window
- • First 7 minutes favor explosive combinations and knee counters.
- • Must force Haddon's entries to come from distance where footwork shines.
- • Selling level-change feints protects hips while opening counter lanes.
🎯Haddon Win Window
- • Chain takedowns off jab feints to wring out Wellmaker's base.
- • Prioritize back control and mat returns over risky submission hunts.
- • Let cardio edge accumulate; minutes 10-15 should be decisive.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence rating and key uncertainty factors based on the full analytical stack
Confidence Level
Model leans toward Haddon's layered game but respects Wellmaker's early knockout threat.
✅Supporting Pillars
- • 2.48 TD/15 with seamless mat returns wears down pure strikers.
- • 9.2 SLpM layered with wrestling overwhelms single-threat opponents.
- • 64% striking defense plus positional control reduces damage intake.
- • Proven 15-minute engine supports decision equity and late finishes.
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Wellmaker's intercept shots can end exchanges abruptly.
- • Defensive wrestling data on Wellmaker remains a small sample.
- • Big cage offers escape routes that can stall Haddon's pressure.
- • Judges may reward clean strikes over control if damage is limited.
🏁Executive Summary
The stylistic contrast is clear: Malcolm Wellmaker's early, surgical striking against Cody Haddon's sustainable pressure and grappling depth. Our model projects Haddon's skill diversity, cardio, and defensive discipline to prevail across three rounds, while respecting the volatility created by Wellmaker's power windows.
Prediction: Cody Haddon by Decision (33% probability) with live Submission equity (18%). Malcolm Wellmaker's upset condition centers on a Round 1/2 KO burst (28%).