Malcolm Wellmaker vs Serhiy Sidey
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC 322
Saturday, November 15, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Malcolm Wellmaker
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Kris Moutinho | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 2:37) |
| 2025-04-26 | Cameron Saaiman | W | KO/TKO - Punch to Head (R1, 1:59) |
| 2024-08-27 | Adam Bramhald | W | TKO - Ground and Pound (R2, 2:14) |
| 2024-01-20 | Chase Boutwell | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:45) |
| 2023-10-14 | Taylor Moore | W | Decision - Majority (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Serhiy Sidey
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Cameron Smotherman | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-02 | Garrett Armfield | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-20 | Ramon Taveras | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-05 | Ramon Taveras | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 4:08) |
| 2023-06-09 | Ali Wasuk | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 4:07) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62.7 vs 48.4) and Grappling Composite (25 vs 29.6). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Malcolm Wellmaker Key Advantages
63% accuracy and 7.2 SLpM vs 40% and 4.49 — every exchange in open space heavily favors Malcolm Wellmaker. His precision striking creates a compounding damage advantage that makes level changes increasingly risky for Serhiy Sidey.
The 60% output advantage (7.2 vs 4.49) combined with 57.5% better accuracy means Malcolm Wellmaker lands nearly 2.5× more clean strikes per minute in sustained exchanges.
Perfect takedown defense built on first-layer underhooks and explosive hip heists. Malcolm Wellmaker consistently denies prolonged wrestling cycles by pivoting off the fence and resetting to center octagon where his striking shines.
Key defensive technique: immediate wrist control on contact, rotate hips away from opponent's lead leg, create separation before Serhiy Sidey can establish double wrist control or body lock.
Majority of victories occur inside the first five minutes, with explosive power punishing any defensive lapses. When Serhiy Sidey attempts level changes, Malcolm Wellmaker's timing on the uppercut and right cross becomes lethal.
Historical pattern: Opponents who attempt early takedowns without proper striking set-ups walk directly into counter right hands during their entry. This is Serhiy Sidey's primary danger zone.
Superior reactive timing allows Malcolm Wellmaker to read entries before they develop. Body jab feints draw premature reactions, creating windows for fight-ending counter strikes during Serhiy Sidey's level changes.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Serhiy Sidey achieves head position and double wrist control along the fence, Malcolm Wellmaker's counter-striking is neutralized. These prolonged clinch stalls drain energy and rack up control time on scorecards.
Critical moment: First 2-3 seconds of clinch contact. If Malcolm Wellmaker doesn't secure immediate underhook or create separation, the exchange tilts heavily toward Serhiy Sidey.
Throwing single power punches without proper jab set-ups telegraphs intent and invites reactive double-leg entries from Serhiy Sidey. Overcommitting on linear strikes in open space creates vulnerable windows.
Danger pattern: Loading up on right hand → weight shifts forward → hips squared → Serhiy Sidey shoots underneath during recovery. Must maintain jab-feint discipline throughout.
If Serhiy Sidey survives early danger and imposes pace in rounds 2-3, Malcolm Wellmaker's striking output may decrease. Higher cardio composite for Serhiy Sidey (79 vs 74) suggests advantage in decision-length fights.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Work body jab → feint high → draw premature level changes. When Serhiy Sidey reacts to upper feints by dipping his head or changing levels, punish immediately with right cross or uppercut during the entry window.
Sequence: Establish body jab rhythm (3-4 reps) → flash high feint without committing → observe Serhiy Sidey's reaction → time counter during next genuine entry attempt. This baits the takedown into the counter.
On first contact in clinch: secure first-layer underhook, rotate hips away from lead leg, explode with hip heist. Never accept prolonged fence clinches—pivot off cage and reset to center octagon within 3-5 seconds.
Priority hierarchy: 1) Underhook before opponent secures wrist control, 2) Create immediate hip angle to prevent body lock, 3) Short burst to create space, 4) Circle back to center. Defensive discipline wins this fight.
Stay off the fence at all costs. Use lateral movement and pivot footwork to deny Serhiy Sidey's cage-cutting attempts. Every exchange in open space maximizes Malcolm Wellmaker's 2.5× striking advantage and keeps the fight where he's most dangerous.
Occasionally flash knee as Serhiy Sidey changes levels—not to land, but to create hesitation and force more cautious entries. Slowing down the wrestling pace keeps the fight in Malcolm Wellmaker's preferred striking range.
🚀 Serhiy Sidey Key Advantages
Higher cardio composite (79 vs 74) and proven track record in decision victories. Serhiy Sidey thrives in pace-heavy, grinding fights where attrition becomes the deciding factor after surviving early danger.
Path to victory: Survive rounds 1-2, bank control time through clinch work, impose wrestling pace in round 3. Malcolm Wellmaker's striking output historically decreases in later rounds when forced to defend takedowns consistently.
Excels at chain wrestling (A→B→C sequences) once fence positions are established. Even if initial entries are defended, Serhiy Sidey transitions fluidly to secondary and tertiary attempts, banking critical control time.
Wrestling philosophy: Volume over precision. Attack 8-10 times per round knowing 2-3 conversions are sufficient. Ride wrists on successful doubles, establish mat returns to accumulate octagon control metrics.
Can dictate fight tempo through constant forward pressure and wrestling threats. Forces Malcolm Wellmaker into reactive mode, draining energy through defensive wrestling and limiting clean striking opportunities.
Strategic leg kicks chip away at Malcolm Wellmaker's mobility, slowing lateral exits and pivot footwork. Reduced movement makes cage-cutting more effective and opens cleaner entry lanes for takedowns in later rounds.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Every minute spent in clean striking exchanges at range severely disadvantages Serhiy Sidey. The 2.5× striking differential compounds quickly—staying in the pocket for 90 seconds can cost a full round on scorecards.
Critical threshold: More than 2 minutes of center-octagon striking per round without clinch breaks = losing round. Must convert cage-cutting attempts into fence positions within 30-45 seconds or disengage and reset pressure.
Shooting single-leg attempts from outside optimal range without proper set-ups exposes Serhiy Sidey to devastating counter strikes. Stalled shots create perfect windows for Malcolm Wellmaker's timing-based counters.
Danger sequence: Telegraph shot from 6+ feet → Malcolm Wellmaker reads entry → stuffs attempt → lands counter right during opponent's recovery. This exact pattern accounts for majority of Malcolm Wellmaker's early finishes.
Getting hurt or dropped in rounds 1-2 forces panic wrestling which plays directly into Malcolm Wellmaker's counter game. Compromised takedowns become even more dangerous when desperation removes set-up discipline.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Crowd the pocket immediately → jab into collar-tie → run to fence → chain wrestle. Primary objective is establishing cage position where Serhiy Sidey's chain wrestling becomes most effective and Malcolm Wellmaker's striking is neutralized.
Entry sequence: Close distance with pawing jab (not power) → secure collar-tie on successful jab connect → drive forward explosively before Malcolm Wellmaker can establish underhook → pin against fence → initiate A→B→C wrestling sequences. Banking 90+ seconds per round of cage control is the path to decision victory.
On successful entries, finish doubles with head inside and ride wrists to control mat positioning. Even without completing takedowns, forcing Malcolm Wellmaker to defend extended sequences drains energy and accumulates control metrics.
Philosophy: 3-4 defended attempts followed by 1 conversion is acceptable ratio. Volume overwhelming the defense is more important than precision. Judges reward constant pressure even when takedowns are stuffed if cage control is maintained.
Systematically chip leg kicks to slow Malcolm Wellmaker's exits and lateral movement. Target kicks during separation attempts and when Malcolm Wellmaker resets to center. Reduced mobility makes cage-cutting exponentially more effective in rounds 2-3.
Timing: Throw leg kicks primarily during opponent's pivot movements and post-separation resets. Avoid kicks in open space (counter right hand risk). Goal is 8-12 quality leg kicks per round to reduce movement by 20-30% in later rounds.
Avoid naked single-leg attempts from distance—these are Malcolm Wellmaker's preferred counter opportunities. Keep takedown volume high (8-10/round) but focus on doubles from clinch or fence positions where counter striking is limited. Pressure over precision wins this fight if Serhiy Sidey survives early rounds.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market (Best available with BetOnline preference)
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 48% | Market: ~53%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% | Market: ~22%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 54% | Market: ~54%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Striking efficiency gap – market may underprice the 63% vs 40% gulf.
- • Chain wrestling reliance – Serhiy Sidey needs extended control; early minutes volatile.
- • Large-cage geometry – favors Malcolm Wellmaker's exits and counter lanes.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Malcolm Wellmaker
Primary route via early counters and flurries
Damage-based minutes with knockdowns
Rare scenario from hurt-to-sub transitions
💥Outcome Distribution - Serhiy Sidey
Clinches and control time bank rounds
Attritional sequences causing late stoppage
Scramble-to-threat sequences from level changes
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Malcolm Wellmaker
- • First 7–10 minutes: Highest KO equity before wrestling routes entrench.
- • Intercept level changes: Cross/uppercut over reactive shots.
- • Exit discipline: Pivot out, avoid prolonged clinches.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Serhiy Sidey
- • Fence cycle: Jab into collar tie, finish doubles head-inside.
- • Ride wrists: Mat returns when scrambles occur.
- • Kick exits: Chip legs to dampen lateral movement.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Striking efficiency gap + early KO equity
✅Supporting Factors
- • 63% vs 40% accuracy; 7.2 vs 4.49 SLpM
- • 100% TDD against 1.58 TD/15 opponent
- • Large-cage geometry favors exits and counters
- • Historical early-finishing profile
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Sidey’s cardio composite edge
- • Fence clinch cycles can bank minutes
- • Three-round volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Malcolm Wellmaker carries decisive striking efficiency and a strong early-finishing profile, while Serhiy Sidey owns the grinder’s path via fence control and chain wrestling. The 65–35 split reflects the structural edge for Malcolm Wellmaker in open-space exchanges with live defensive responsibilities against reactive shots.
Prediction: Malcolm Wellmaker by KO/TKO or Decision; live hedge Serhiy Sidey Decision.