Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint Denis
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC 322
Saturday, November 15, 2025

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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Beneil Dariush
Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
---|---|---|---|
2025-06-28 | Renato Moicano | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
2023-12-02 | Arman Tsarukyan | L | KO/TKO - Ground Strikes (R1, 1:04) |
2023-06-10 | Charles Oliveira | L | KO/TKO - Ground Strikes (R1, 4:10) |
2022-10-22 | Mateusz Gamrot | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
2021-05-15 | Tony Ferguson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Benoit Saint Denis
Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
---|---|---|---|
2025-09-06 | Maurício Ruffy | W | Submission - Face Crank (R2, 2:45) |
2025-05-10 | Kyle Prepolec | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R2, 2:35) |
2024-09-28 | Renato Moicano | L | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R2, 5:00) |
2024-03-09 | Dustin Poirier | L | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 2:32) |
2023-11-11 | Matt Frevola | W | KO/TKO - Head Kick (R1, 1:31) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧠 Beneil Dariush Key Advantages
Elite damage control (2.61 SApM vs 4.61 SApM) paired with 58% striking defense creates a protective shell that absorbs 77% less damage than Saint-Denis. This defensive reliability allows Dariush to sustain clean technique and decision-making across all three rounds, banking minutes through superior damage avoidance rather than overwhelming offense.
World-class sprawl mechanics (82% TDD vs 71% TDD) neutralize Saint-Denis' high-volume chain wrestling (4.19 TD/15 attempts). Dariush's defensive wrestling pedigree from Kings MMA allows him to stuff initial shots and disengage from the fence, keeping exchanges in the open where his counter-striking and positional IQ dominate. Even in scrambles, his veteran awareness prevents back exposure.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended sequences against the cage where Saint-Denis chains takedown attempts (4.19 TD/15) can drain Dariush's energy reserves and force defensive urgency. If corralled repeatedly to the fence, even elite sprawl technique becomes taxed, opening lanes for late-round finishing sequences or cumulative damage in scrambles that favor the younger, more explosive fighter.
Saint-Denis' explosive first-round pressure (5.39 SLpM, 100% finish rate historically) creates dangerous windows where Dariush's recent early-round vulnerabilities become exposed. Clean blitzing entries with southpaw power shots or immediate takedown-to-submission chains capitalize on any lapses in defensive positioning, raising KO and submission equity significantly in the opening five minutes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Maintain center-cage positioning to maximize the 30-foot cage's space, preventing Saint-Denis from establishing sustained fence pressure. Pick patient counters with straight left hands and body kicks, utilizing superior defensive metrics (58% StrDef) to absorb minimal damage while systematically draining BSD's aggressive output. Mix in timely defensive level-changes to disrupt rhythm and reduce takedown windows, controlling tempo through strategic disengagement and lateral movement.
🚀 Benoit Saint Denis Key Advantages
Elite volume striking (5.39 SLpM vs 3.78 SLpM) paired with relentless southpaw forward pressure forces constant defensive reactions, backing Dariush toward the fence and creating fatigue accumulation. This sustained offensive tempo opens natural transitions into wrestling chains, where BSD's athletic advantage and youth (29 vs 36) compound, allowing him to dictate exchanges and impose his preferred chaotic pace that historically produces finishes.
Relentless chain wrestling (4.19 TD/15, nearly double Dariush's 2.12) paired with elite submission threat (1.54 Sub/15) creates multi-layered finishing opportunities. Even against Dariush's 82% TDD, repeated attempts drain defensive reserves and generate scrambles where BSD's back-take mastery and opportunistic submission game (71% career sub win rate) become lethal. Once top position or the back is secured, finishing equity skyrockets dramatically.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Dariush's patient counter-striking from center cage (49% StrAcc with precise timing) systematically blunts BSD's pressure waves, creating defensive resets that prevent sustained offensive sequences. Clean straight lefts and body kicks interrupt forward momentum, limiting clinch entry opportunities and forcing BSD to repeatedly rebuild attacks from range—draining energy and exposing him to cumulative counter damage that his porous defense (42% StrDef) struggles to manage over 15 minutes.
If Dariush successfully reverses position or establishes prolonged top control, BSD's offensive output becomes neutralized and clock bleeds away without finishing opportunities materializing. Extended fence stalling or being held in bottom guard against Dariush's patient top game (0.82 Sub/15 threat) eliminates the explosive finishing windows BSD relies on, forcing him into unfamiliar decision-grinding scenarios where his 0% career decision rate reveals a critical gap in his skillset.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Deploy aggressive southpaw pressure striking to corral Dariush to the fence, establishing dominant cage positioning early. Build takedown attempts in relentless waves (4.19 TD/15), leveraging athleticism and cardio to overwhelm defensive systems even against elite sprawl. Once clinched or grounded, immediately transition to back-take sequences or establish heavy top control, hunting rear-naked chokes (signature finish) or delivering attritive ground-and-pound damage concentrated in R1–R2 when finishing equity peaks.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot Octagon provides critical spatial advantages that directly impact this stylistic matchup. The expanded perimeter favors Dariush's footwork, lateral movement, and reset opportunities—allowing him to employ his elite defensive metrics (58% StrDef, 82% TDD) while maintaining center-cage positioning. This space enables counter-striking windows and prevents prolonged cage-pinning sequences. Conversely, if Saint-Denis successfully corrals Dariush to the fence early and sustains pressure, the dynamic flips: BSD's relentless chain wrestling (4.19 TD/15) and cage-cutting southpaw pressure become magnified, creating momentum-shifting sequences where defensive fatigue accumulates and finishing opportunities multiply. Cage geography essentially determines which fighter's game plan flourishes across three rounds.
🎯Technical Contrast
This fight represents a quintessential clash of technical philosophies at lightweight. Dariush embodies defensive mastery combined with measured, economical offense: his 58% striking defense and 2.61 SApM (absorbing 77% less damage than BSD) demonstrate a protective shell built on precise positioning and timing, banking rounds through damage avoidance and control rather than overwhelming aggression. In stark contrast, Saint-Denis operates as a volume-pressure offensive engine, deploying elite output metrics (5.39 SLpM striking pace, 4.19 TD/15 wrestling volume, 1.54 Sub/15 submission threat) to create layered finishing sequences through relentless forward momentum. The tactical narrative boils down to "minutes vs. moments"—can Dariush steadily accumulate scored time through superior technique and poise, or will Saint-Denis generate the explosive, fight-ending sequences his 100% finish rate predicts across three rounds?
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three interconnected battle zones will determine fight outcome and momentum shifts. First, fence control: Saint-Denis must establish cage dominance to deploy his wrestling chains and pressure striking, while Dariush must defend perimeter positioning to preserve counter-striking lanes and reset opportunities. Second, first-shot takedown defense: Dariush's 82% TDD creates an initial defensive barrier, but BSD's relentless chain attack strategy (4.19 TD/15) means even elite sprawl fatigues over repeated sequences— whoever wins this attrition battle controls grappling exchanges. Third, scramble discipline: in chaotic transitions, BSD's back-take mastery (71% sub win rate) threatens immediate finishes, while Dariush's veteran awareness and positioning must prevent dangerous exposures. Saint-Denis maximizes win equity when prolonged clinch/wrestle sequences accumulate; Dariush thrives when exchanges remain clean, technical, and spaced in the open cage where his defensive superiority compounds over time.
🏁Final Prediction
Our data-driven projection leans Benoit Saint Denis 58–42, primarily driven by his multi-dimensional finishing threats (34% KO/TKO, 12% submission in our simulations) and overwhelming offensive pace that creates more fight-ending sequences across 100 hypothetical scenarios. Saint-Denis' youth (29 vs 36), athletic advantage, and pressure-volume metrics (5.39 SLpM, 4.19 TD/15) generate layered pathways to victory, particularly in early rounds where his explosiveness peaks. However, Beneil Dariush remains a legitimately live underdog at 42%, with viable paths through decision grinding (18%) leveraging his superior defensive shell and cardio, or opportunistic submissions (13%) capitalizing on scramble awareness. If Dariush navigates the dangerous first-round storm and controls cage positioning, his veteran craft and damage avoidance can systematically bank rounds. The margin is narrow enough that execution of game plan—particularly fence control and scramble outcomes—becomes decisive rather than predetermined.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 18% | Market: ~20% (shop lines)
GOOD VALUE
Model: 34% | Market: ~33%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 56% | Market: ~54%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Pressure vs Defense – Books may overweight pressure finishing, undervaluing Dariush’s damage control.
- • Scramble volatility – Early submission/KO swings widen tails; prices often compress mid-range outcomes.
- • Big-cage dynamics – Space aids resets and decisions more than small-cage lines imply.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Beneil Dariush
Primary path via control and defense
Opportunistic grappling when scrambles settle
Less common but live in transitions
💥Outcome Distribution - Benoit Saint Denis
Primary finishing lane via pressure striking
Back-take and chain choke sequences
Volume + control in sustained pressure minutes
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Benoit Saint Denis
- • First 7 minutes: Blitz entries and chain wrestling at peak effectiveness
- • Fence sequences: Create scrambles and back exposure opportunities
- • Attrition: Accumulate damage to tax defensive reactions
🎯Progressive Dominance - Beneil Dariush
- • Minute winning: Counters and resets limit extended brawls
- • Control insurance: Top rides and fence exits bleed clock
- • Decision lanes: Defense and composure in late minutes
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Saint-Denis pressure edge with meaningful defensive resistance from Dariush
✅Supporting Factors
- • High pace + layered grappling from Saint-Denis
- • Finishing equity in R1–R2 for the pressure fighter
- • Defensive reliability and decision lanes for Dariush
- • Big-cage geometry favors clean skill expression
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Early volatility from blitz exchanges
- • Fence control dictating position and pace
- • Submission scrambles changing round optics
- • Lightweight division variance
🏁Executive Summary
This stylistic duel pits Benoit Saint Denis’s pressure and finishing aggression against Beneil Dariush’s veteran defensive craft and positional control. In a big cage, decisions remain live for the veteran, but pressure minutes and finishing spikes tilt a narrow edge toward the younger fighter.
Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis 58% by KO/TKO or Decision; live hedge on Beneil Dariushby Decision.