Ricardo Ramos vs Kaan Ofli
UFC Rio
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Ricardo Ramos advantage: 55.6%Cardio Score
Ricardo Ramos advantage: 10.8%Overall Rating
Ricardo Ramos advantage: 29.1%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace through three rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities.
Striking Composite
Kaan Ofli advantage: 9.7%Grappling Composite
Ricardo Ramos advantage: 254.5%Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Physical Attributes & Range
Ramos holds notable height (+2") and reach (+6") advantages, enabling jab-first entries and clinch access. Ofli's compact frame offers explosive counters but requires closing distance against longer weapons.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Ramos owns a clear grappling edge (TD15 2.57; Sub/15 0.67) and sturdy TDD (70%). Ofli's striking efficiency (46% Acc, 60% Def) shines in pure standup, but limited wrestling output (0.0 TD15) narrows his paths in a three-rounder.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Distance management, clinch entries after leg-kicks, and Ramos's cage control vs Ofli's counter timing. Early denial of takedowns keeps Ofli live; extended wrestling cycles tilt heavily toward Ramos.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Ramos; moments favor Ofli. Over three rounds, the grappling insurance and range management lean the contest to Ramos unless Ofli lands decisive counters early.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities (Model POV)
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
FAIR VALUE
Model: 48% | Fair: +108
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 56% | Fair: -127
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ricardo Ramos
Control minutes and mat returns
Ground-and-pound transitions
Back-takes and RNCs
💥Outcome Distribution - Kaan Ofli
Cleaner shots at range
Counter windows early
Front-choke threats
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Kaan Ofli
- • First 3–5 minutes: highest KO/sub equity at range
- • Deny cage-cuts; sprawl/defend neck on level changes
- • Counter jabs and low-kicks with straight rights
🎯Progressive Dominance - Ricardo Ramos
- • Clean entries without exposing neck; chain to mat returns
- • Ride time over risks early; attack back when safe
- • Prioritize position late to bank rounds
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 6/10 — Grappling edge vs. clean counters
Confidence Level
Lean to Ramos; Ofli live early with front-chokes and counters
✅Supporting Factors
- • Multi-metric grappling edge (TD15 2.57; Sub/15 0.67; TDD 70%)
- • Significant reach advantage aids entries and control
- • Deeper UFC sample and veteran experience
- • Minute-winning top game in three-round template
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Front-choke risk on hurried entries (recent guillotine losses)
- • Big cage enables Ofli’s preferred range and counters
- • Damage optics if control time is limited
- • Variance in 3-round fights
🏁Executive Summary
We’re confidently leaning Ramos based on the multi-metric grappling edge and deeper UFC sample. The hesitation: front-choke risk matched to Ramos’ recent guillotine losses, plus the large cage giving Ofli his preferred range.
Prediction: Ramos by Decision or Submission. Ofli live to edge a decision or catch a front-choke early.