Roman Kopylov vs Gregory Rodrigues
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 322
Saturday, November 15, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Roman Kopylov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Paulo Costa | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-11 | Chris Curtis | W | TKO - Head Kick (R3, 4:59) |
| 2024-06-01 | Cesar Almeida | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Anthony Hernandez | L | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 3:23) |
| 2023-09-16 | Josh Fremd | W | KO - Punch to the Body (R2, 4:44) |
Last 5 Fights - Gregory Rodrigues
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Jack Hermansson | W | KO - Punch (R1, 4:21) |
| 2025-02-15 | Jared Cannonier | L | TKO - Punches (R4, 0:21) |
| 2024-07-27 | Christian Leroy Duncan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Brad Tavares | W | KO - Punches (R3, 0:55) |
| 2023-08-19 | Denis Tiuliulin | W | KO - Elbows (R1, 1:43) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (50.7 vs 55.9) and Grappling Composite (38.4 vs 48.3). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In a large 30‑ft cage, Kopylov benefits from open‑space selections and counter lanes off southpaw kicks, but Rodrigues' controlled pressure and jab‑cross entries still travel, especially when he corrals exchanges toward the fence.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Rodrigues carries the minute‑winning template: higher SLpM (5.54 vs 4.74), comparable accuracy (51% vs 50%), and a meaningful takedown volume edge (2.21 vs 1.02). Kopylov's first‑layer TDD is strong (87%), but layered shots and chain wrestling can crack his base when he's defending on the fence.
🧩Key Battle Areas
1) Center‑line counters vs blitzes; 2) Fence exchanges where Rodrigues mixes double‑legs and strikes; 3) Body work and tempo—Rodrigues' pressure and top control vs Kopylov's kick rhythm and resets.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Rodrigues via the volume + power + wrestling‑volume trifecta, while Kopylov's southpaw kicking and counters keep him live. Projection aligns near 62–38 Rodrigues, with KO/TKO or a pressure‑driven decision as primary routes, and Kopylov's best chances coming from clean left‑side counters in space.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 38% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Minute winning undervalued – Books may underweight Rodrigues' sustained pace and wrestling insurance.
- • Southpaw volatility – Kopylov's left‑side counters keep KO equity high.
- • Fence impact – Mixed takedowns off jab‑cross sequences shift control minutes to Rodrigues.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3 Rounds)
Outcome distribution from our simulation model
💥Outcome Distribution - Rodrigues
Pocket trades + fence sequences
Pressure minutes + mixed takedowns
Club‑and‑sub sequences when rocked
🧊Outcome Distribution - Kopylov
Head‑kick/counter lanes in space
Wins minutes when resets to center
No submission path historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Rodrigues
- • First 7 minutes: Peak KO equity
- • Jab‑cross → level change: Create fence sequences
- • Body work: Drain stance, slow counters
🎯Counter Windows - Kopylov
- • Left‑side counters: Exploit blitz entries
- • Reset to center: Sprawl, whizzer, stand‑ups
- • Leg/body kicks: Slow forward pressure
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction Rating: 7.5/10
Confidence Level
Sustainable minute‑winning plus KO power; southpaw volatility remains.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher SLpM with similar accuracy
- • Meaningfully higher takedown volume (2.21 vs 1.02)
- • High TDDef and club‑and‑sub threat
- • Pressure minutes accrue on fence
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Southpaw head‑kick and counter lanes
- • Extended range if pressure stalls
- • Middleweight finishing volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Model leans to Gregory Rodrigues (62%) through volume, power, and takedown mixing in a large cage that still allows him to corral exchanges. Roman Kopylov (38%) is live on southpaw counters and head‑kick variance, especially early in space.
Prediction: Rodrigues by KO/TKO or Decision; hedge consideration: Kopylov KO.