Bo Nickal vs Rodolfo Vieira
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 322
Saturday, November 15, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Bo Nickal
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Reinier de Ridder | L | TKO - Knee to Body (R2, 1:53) |
| 2024-11-16 | Paul Craig | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Cody Brundage | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 3:38) |
| 2023-07-08 | Val Woodburn | W | TKO - Punches to Head (R1, 0:38) |
| 2023-03-04 | Jamie Pickett | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R1, 2:54) |
Last 5 Fights - Rodolfo Vieira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Tresean Gore | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-15 | Andre Petroski | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Armen Petrosyan | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R1, 4:48) |
| 2023-04-29 | Cody Brundage | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R2, 1:28) |
| 2022-06-25 | Chris Curtis | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (54.3 vs 54.8) and Grappling Composite (77.8 vs 67.5). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Bo Nickal Key Advantages
Cleaner level changes and 53% TD accuracy vs ~25% for Vieira yield phase control in open space.
2.11 SApM vs 4.2 for Vieira; better defense (58% vs ~50%) in a large 30-ft Octagon.
Height and reach advantage help land first and enter on his terms in the big cage.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Vieira's high-elbow guillotine and arm-in traps can flip control instantly on sloppy entries.
Three hard rounds without top control are less validated in Nickal's UFC sample.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Finish singles to half-guard; prioritize shoulder pressure and chest-to-chest rides; avoid hanging necks.
Mix entries, re-attack on sprawls, and bank control time; smash-pass to mount only with safe head position.
🚀 Rodolfo Vieira Key Advantages
Front-headlock series, arm-triangle chains, and back-takes in transitions punish exposed necks.
More minutes fought at UFC level; steadier cardio profile if not forced to scramble constantly.
Uses guillotine threats to deter doubles and create scoring opportunities in clinch/trip sequences.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Large cage reduces forced clinch sequences; minute-winning favors Nickal in space.
Higher SApM and mid-tier defense mean he can be hit first when entries stall.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Force turtle scrambles and front-headlocks; threaten guillotine to deter head-outside doubles.
Jab-to-overhand to enter without overextending; keep balance for reactive shots or trips.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Venue Dynamics
Scheduled for Madison Square Garden in the 30-ft Octagon. Larger cage slightly reduces forced clinch wrestling, benefiting Nickal’s in-and-out setups and first-contact advantage.
🎯Decisive Factors
TD accuracy delta (53% vs ~25%), damage avoidance (2.11 vs 4.2 SApM), and cage size tilt the minutes toward Nickal. Vieira’s elite front‑headlock and arm‑triangle series keep finishing volatility high on any exposed neck.
🏁Final Read
Multiple repeatable edges favor Nickal over three rounds. Absent a caught neck in transition, control time and damage accumulation should bank rounds or create late TKO opportunities.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: ~28%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 56% | Market: 56%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 24% | Market: ~24%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • TD% gap – Market may underrate how a 53% vs ~25% TD% dictates rounds.
- • Submission volatility – Vieira's guillotine/arm-triangle threat creates non-linear outcomes.
- • Big-cage dynamic – Minute-winning in space can be undervalued for Nickal.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Nickal
Primary minute-winning route
GNP or opportunistic finishing lanes
Head-and-arm / RNC chains
💥Outcome Distribution - Vieira
Guillotines, arm-triangles, back-takes
Control-based path less frequent
Lower probability lane
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Vieira
- • Early scrambles: Highest guillotine equity during fence shots/stand-ups.
- • Front-headlock chains: Force turtled positions to attack neck and back.
- • Short combos: Stay balanced to deter reactive shots.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Nickal
- • Phase control: Clean entries decide location and tempo.
- • Minute winning: Ground control and damage accumulation bank rounds.
- • Error margin: Safe head position avoids front-headlock traps.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edges with live submission volatility from Vieira.
✅Supporting Factors
- • TD% and entry quality advantage
- • Better defensive striking and lower SApM
- • Physical edges enhanced by large cage
- • Proven top control routes to bank minutes
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Vieira's guillotine/arm‑triangle threat
- • Extended scramble tax late
- • Middleweight finishing volatility
🏁Executive Summary
We back Bo Nickal at 66% to win via control‑heavy decision or late TKO. Vieira’s submission conversion is the live breaker in any scramble; safe head position is the key risk control.
Prediction: Bo Nickal by Decision or KO/TKO. Live hedge: Rodolfo Vieira Submission.