Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates
UFC 322 • Madison Square Garden
Saturday, November 15, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Leon Edwards
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Sean Brady | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R4, 1:39) |
| 2024-07-27 | Belal Muhammad | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-16 | Colby Covington | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-18 | Kamaru Usman | W | Decision - Majority (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-20 | Kamaru Usman | W | KO/TKO - Head Kick (R5, 4:04) |
Last 5 Fights - Carlos Prates
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Geoff Neal | W | KO - Spinning Back Elbow (R1, 4:59) |
| 2025-04-26 | Ian Machado Garry | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-09 | Neil Magny | W | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 4:50) |
| 2024-08-17 | Jingliang Li | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 4:02) |
| 2024-06-08 | Charlie Radtke | W | KO - Knee to the Body (R1, 4:47) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Leon Edwards advantage: 8.7%Cardio Score
Leon Edwards advantage: 22.2%Overall Rating
Leon Edwards advantage: 15.6%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Leon Edwards advantage: 7.9%Grappling Composite
Leon Edwards advantage: 9.7%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Large cage favors range striking, but Leon Edwards's defensive footwork and clinch entries can bank minutes if he avoids early power lanes. Carlos Prates's 4" reach edge matters most in the first half of the fight.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Leon Edwards carries the defense/cardio edge (lower SApM, better StrDef) and mixes takedowns (TD15 1.18) to disrupt rhythm. Carlos Prates brings KO volatility (higher SLpM, reach), demanding careful pocket exits and leg‑kick counters.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Early distance management vs late minute‑winning: jabs/low‑kicks and cage craft for Leon Edwards vs long straight shots and pocket entries for Carlos Prates. Clinch breaks and exits decide momentum in R2–R3.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Leon Edwards; moments favor Carlos Prates. Projection: Leon Edwards by Decision most often, with live Carlos Prates KO R1‑R2 if range control slips.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: 52.4%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: 28.6%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: 60.0%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Early KO risk inflates Prates ML; decision-heavy Edwards often priced tight.
- • Edwards' cardio edge over 3 rounds not fully priced in volatile markets.
- • Reach advantage drives Prates props; defensive gaps may be undervalued.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Leon Edwards
Minute winning and control
Counter and attrition setups
Occasional grappling threat
💥Outcome Distribution - Carlos Prates
Primary path via power
Limited minute control
Minimal submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Carlos Prates
- • First 3–5 minutes: highest KO equity before reads settle.
- • Use jab and long straight to intercept entries.
- • Keep space and avoid prolonged clinch exchanges.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Leon Edwards
- • Minute winning: jab, low‑kicks, check hooks rack up points.
- • Pace control: mix clinch/wrestle to cool tempo.
- • Defense first: exit the pocket to deny counters.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 — Experience and defense vs early KO power
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Leon Edwards with early volatility from Carlos Prates.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher defensive metrics and lower absorption
- • Meaningful UFC experience advantage
- • Cardio edge over 3 rounds
- • Versatile game: counter + clinch/wrestle mix
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Early KO power and 4" reach disadvantage
- • Potential slow starts can give away minutes
- • Prates' recent KO run elevates volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Leon Edwards owns the sustainable minute‑winning profile and better defensive metrics, while Carlos Prates carries genuine early knockout danger. Over three rounds in a big cage, the model leans 70–30 toward Leon Edwards, with decision as primary route and early KO as a live secondary.
Prediction: Leon Edwards by Decision or KO/TKO. Live hedge: Carlos Prates KO R1.